If you love defensive football, this is your game. Mississippi State finished third in yards allowed per game at 268 ypg and Iowa was all the way down at seventh with 290 ypg. MSU landed at sixth in passing yards allowed per game and Iowa 24th. Rushing yards allowed were a similar story with Iowa sitting at eighth and the Bulldogs at tenth. Lastly, MSU finished as the number one scoring defense with just 12.0 ppg but Iowa wasn’t exactly a slouch finishing 11th, giving up just 17.4 ppg. Safe to say points and yards will be hard to come by, but then again, goofy things can happen in bowls. Watch the final score be 56-49.
How did Iowa get here?
Obviously that defense was instrumental in wins against Northern Illinois, Iowa State, Northern Iowa, and Indiana as each opponent was held to 16 points or less but the Maryland and Illinois wins were absolute defense gems as Iowa shutout both opponents. To be fair the offense had some nice games (i.e. Nebraska, Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota) but that side of the ball wasn’t reliable enough (e.g. the Northwestern loss) or timely enough in scoring one days that the defense struggled (most notably the Purdue game).
The good news is Iowa’s defense is coming in pretty healthy and doesn’t have anyone sitting out for NFL draft prep, though Amani Hooker will be a sure draft pick if he leaves now or next year. The offense is pretty healthy as well and even though Noah Fant going pro and skipping this game hurts, the outstanding tight end wasn’t joined by Mackey Award winner T.J. Hockenson so even without Fant, Iowa’s TE situation is still a strength. The offense also has a decent, although not great, rushing attack keyed by Mekhi Sargent who led Iowa in yardage but split duties with two other skilled backs. Of course it all comes down to QB Nate Stanley. His numbers look amazing but in crunch time he has mixed results, although the final drive against Nebraska may have turned that narrative. The other problem for Stanley is his accuracy on deep balls is lacking so it is difficult for Iowa to stretch the field vertically.
So while Iowa’s defense was amazing and the schedule an easy one, Iowa under-achieved in many ways. Late collapse against Penn State and Wisconsin, a no show against Northwestern, and a terrible day defensively at Purdue all prevented Iowa from winning a wide open west. The silver lining for Hawks fans is when they are in form, they were the best team in the west. Will they be in form in Tampa? That’s what annoys so many Iowa fans.
How did Mississippi State get here?
Much like Iowa their defense played like rock stars throughout the season. Unlike Iowa their offense was very top heavy as quarterback Nick Fitzgerald was the leading rusher but his passing numbers were down from last year and he was sacked 24 times, a whopping 17 more times than last year. On the whole MSU’s offense was as good and in some ways better than Iowa’s but really struggled against good defenses, being held to 7 points or less against Kentucky, Florida, LSU, and Alabama.
Who will win…and why?
Perhaps Iowa’s defense isn’t as good as that quartet of SEC teams talent wise. Perhaps they get burned all bowl like Michigan and Purdue did. Perhaps I’m just a dumb Iowa fan but I honestly believe Iowa’s defense was as good as their stats indicate. I honestly believe Iowa can slow Nick Fitzgerald thus stalling the Bulldog offense. Iowa might not score a lot and it could be a race to seven but the Hawks will win.
How to watch
- Date: January 1
- Time: 11:00 am, central
- TV: ESPN2
- Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Gambling Guide
- Mississippi State -7.0, Over / Under 40.5
I was going to take the under no matter what but damn, getting seven? Okay, give me the points, too.
Lightning Round for Non-Readers:
Iowa/Mississippi State – Points, Under
Big Ten and Counting 