When you think of these two teams most would assume a defensive power in Kentucky has been paired with an offensive juggernaut in Penn State. Offensively this is kinda, sorta true with Penn State finishing 44th in yards per game and 30th in points per game while Kentucky finished 101st in ypg and 86th in ppg but defensively Kentucky was very good finishing at 20th in total defense and eighth in points allowed per but Penn State wasn’t exactly sieve. The Nittany Lions finished 37th in yards allowed per and 20th in points allowed per. The fact is Penn State is a very balanced ball club so unless they melt down against Kentucky’s defense or allow Benny Snell Jr to run all over them, this is actually a very advantageous match-up for Penn State.
How did Penn State get here?
Not being very good against the two best teams in the Big Ten east. The Lions lost by a point to Ohio State but for the second straight year choked that game away. Then against Michigan they were completely outclassed, losing 42-7. For extra measure, Penn State was also upset by Michigan State. Still, Penn State is led by an amazing college quarterback in Trace McSorley, had a 1,000 yard back in Miles Sanders, and despite a few bumps along the way a new-look defense really rounded into form.
How did Kentucky get here?
Having a historic season. The nine wins for Kentucky is their most since 1984 when a bowl victory got them to nine. Winning this game would give Kentucky their first 10 win season since 1977 and just their third overall, joining that ’77 squad and the 1950 Bear Bryant lead team that had 11 wins. Two things went into this historic season: that defense and Benny Snell Jr. The dynamic tailback ended with over 1,300 yards and 14 touchdowns. Unfortunately sophomore quarterback Terry Wilson wasn’t quite good enough in his debut season as the starter to have the Cats stun Georgia and steal the division but the future feels bright for the first time in a while in Lexington and perhaps playing with house money and the motivation of being the first 10 win team in over 40 years will counteract Penn State being the more complete club.
Who will win…and why?
Honestly, it has been a while since Kentucky looked like a team that could win their division. Since knocking off South Carolina to get to 5-0, UK lost three of seven, beat Vanderbilt just 14-7, beat Missouri just 15-14, got doubled up by Georgia, was clobbered by Tennessee of all teams, and then finished strong against weak foes: Middle Tennessee and lousy Louisville. Outside the Michigan game, Penn State’s back half of the season was much more polished. Penn State is also the more balanced team between offense and defense as well as rushing and passing. Kentucky has been a magical story this year, but this just isn’t a favorable match-up for them.
How to watch
- Date: January 1
- Time: 12:00 pm, central
- TV: ABC
- Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
Gambling Guide
- Penn State -6.0, Over / Under 47.5
With these two defenses and Kentucky’s own offensive struggles, I feel pretty good about the under. I’ll also ride with the team I have called balanced about 32 times.
Lightning Round for Non-Readers:
Penn State/Kentucky – PSU, Under
Big Ten and Counting 