2017 Week 1 Gambling Guide

Illinois vs Ball State

• Illinois -6.5, Over / Under 55.5
  

Vegas and I are in sync early as I have the Illini winning a tight one in a rather low scoring affair.  My final in the preview series was 31-21 so I’ll take UI to cover but will also bet the under.

Indiana vs Ohio State

• Ohio State -20.5, O/U 57
  

I have Indiana hanging around in this game a bit before ultimately losing 35-20.  Putting my money where my mouth is on the Hoosiers and taking the points and the under.

 

Iowa vs Wyoming

• Iowa -11.5, O/U 49.5
  

I’m surprised by that spread to be honest.  Wyoming has a lethal quarterback and one of Iowa’s key secondary players is suspended.  When I predicted this game in the BC/WC/P series, I had Iowa barely winning, 31-28.  I’ll gladly take those points because not only can Wyoming keep it close, but they could pull the upset.  Since my combined is 59 points, I’ll snag the over as well.

Maryland at Texas

• Texas -18.5, O/U, 56
  

Maybe I am a homer because I write about the Big Ten as a hobby but I think the Terps have a decent shot at keeping this close and an okay chance at pulling the upset.  In UM’s BC/WC/P post, I have Maryland only losing 35-24 so I’ll take the points and the over.

Michigan vs Florida (Neutral Site)

• Michigan -5.5, O/U 43.5
  

I picked Florida in the BC/WC/P series and the suspensions have scared me a little, but haven’t scared me off taking the Gators.  With countless new faces for Michigan, I just can’t get a read on them.  They could easily turn out to be the better team but heading into this one, I’ll sleep better knowing my money is sitting with the more experienced teams.  I expect a final in the 31-21 range so for the third game in a row, points and over por favor.

Michigan State vs Bowling Green

• Michigan State -17, O/U 53.5
  

I am not optimistic about the Falcons this year.  They really struggled last season and I think they need a year or two to get back on track in the MAC.  As a result I predicted MSU to win this one pretty easily, 31-10.  Gimme the favorite but I’ll take the under because I think MSU’s defense will stonewall Bowling Green.

Minnesota vs Buffalo

• Minnesota -26, O/U 50
  

Buffalo’s rush defense was terrible a season ago en route to a 2-10 season so I expected a blowout and resulted in me predicting UM winning 35-10, which is the narrowest of covers for SUNY-Buffalo.  I don’t feel good about the Bulls but offenses do take a few quarters to get going, maybe the Gophers don’t jump on UB early to clear such a large spread.  Either way, I don’t think the Bulls generate enough offense to hit the over.

Nebraska vs Arkansas State

• Nebraska -15, O/U 46.5
  

Red Wolves make for a fun upset pick if you are a fan.  As a bettor, the smart money is on the Huskers.  The reason is ASU is a Sun Belt juggernaut but tends to struggle with teams outside the league, especially power five teams.  In the ‘ol BC/WC/P series I had the Huskers winning a high scoring game, 42-21.  I’ll take the favorites and the over as a result.

Northwestern vs Nevada

• Northwestern -24.5, O/U 60.5
  

Holy spread, Batman!  I know Nevada struggled last year and the Wildcats have a ton of hype entering this year but that is a massive spread…looks up what I wrote for NU in their preview…sees my prediction was 35-10…retracts statement.  NU barely covers.  Taking the under though.  60 points in week one feels high because it can take a game or two before offenses really start to gel.

Penn State vs Akron

• Penn State -30.5, O/U 66
  

I previewed this one as the cupcake of the week earlier today and predicted Penn State to roll, 56-13.  Taking the favorite and the over.  With Penn State’s offense, I feel like taking the over will be a common theme for this club.

Purdue vs Louisville (game in Indianapolis)

• Louisville -25, O/U 68.5
  

Jesus that over feels massive and yet, with Purdue’s defense going against Lamar Jackson, it still feels splash-able.  I predicted the Cards to roll, 59-20 so I’ll place my bet accordingly.  One side note, Lucas Oil seats 70k and Ross Ade seats 57k.  With the ease of travel to Indianapolis from Louisville, I expect it to be 2/3rds red……..at least.

Rutgers vs Washington

• Washington -27.5, O/U 52.5
  

Can’t get much closer than this…my prediction was 42-14, Washington.  28 points and 56 combined.  Yikes.  On Vegas Insider, the spread has come down from 33 but some sports books still have it as high as 28.  I would say if you can find the spread at 27.5 or if the money comes in to lower the spread even more, take Washington.  Otherwise stay away from the spread.  Woah, you know what that sounds like?  Sounds like a degenerate tip.  First one of the year.  Feel more confident about the over though.

Wisconsin vs Utah State

• Wisconsin -27.5, O/U 52
  

Utah State isn’t good and Wisconsin is very good.  I originally had Wisconsin winning 42-7.  That means I’m taking the favorite and the under.  I feel really good about that pick set because with some injuries in the off-season, Badgers might yank the starters early and win it without putting up as many points as I originally thought.

Lightning Round for Non-Readers

Illinois/Ball State – UI, Under

Indiana/Ohio State – Points, Under

Iowa/Wyoming – Points, Over

Maryland/Texas – Points, Over

Michigan/Florida – Points, Over

Michigan State/Bowling Green – MSU, Under

Minnesota/Buffalo – Points, Under

Nebraska/Arkansas State – NU, Over

Northwestern/Nevada – NU, Under

Penn State/Akron – PSU, Over

Purdue/Louisville – UL, Over

Rutgers/Washington – UW (degenerate pick), Over

Wisconsin/Utah State – UW, Under