All fourteen teams in action across seven league games but all eyes will be on the Nebraska game. Minnesota has quietly gone 7-2 (4-2) and if they win out they will represent the West. With the Badgers and Huskers being nationally ranked and at one point both top ten teams it is easy to forget about the boys from up north as they have yet to crack any poll but here they sit, in control of their own destiny. A UM win will end any slim hopes for Nebraska and finally get people to notice the solid season the Gophers are putting together. A Nebraska win keeps them in the Western race…barely. They would need to win out and hope Wisconsin drops a game despite UW having a pretty manageable home stretch. As always, these times are central.
Game of the Week:
Minnesota at Nebraska
The Huskers were beat up physically at Wisconsin and at Ohio State. Now they face their third straight smash-mouth team. While Minnesota isn’t as good as UW, Neb or OSU on paper the timing of this game is advantageous. Nebraska has been punished for two straight weeks and now gets the grinder that is Rodney Smith. The 5’11” 205 pound back has been outstanding with 954 yards and 13 TDs this year. He is riding a four game 100+ yard streak into Lincoln and looking for more. On the flip side, with Tommy Armstrong Jr’s concussion at OSU, we don’t know what his health is and if the offense will have the same pop without him or a limited version of Armstrong. This is a chance for Minnesota to make a huge statement win and stay right in the thick of the Western race. For Nebraska it is a chance to salvage hopes of a 10 win regular season, with a possibility for Indianapolis, but take a big step forward in the year two of the Riley administration.
- Saturday, 6:30pm, BTN
Sleeper:
Indiana vs Penn State
If IU’s improved defense can keep them in the game and if IU’s offense can find a running game and if IU protects the ball, there is a shot for the Hoosiers in this one. Penn State has looked like world beaters the last few weeks but an 11 o’clock kick off in sleepy Bloomington against an improved Indiana team could be the perfect recipe for an upset.
- Saturday, 11am, ABC / ESPN2
Don’t Forget:
Northwestern at Purdue
In losing efforts against Penn State and Minnesota, Purdue played brilliant first halves. This is also a team that, despite firing their coach, is still 3-6. If they win out (Northwestern, offensively challenged Wisconsin, and Indiana) they have a shot at a bowl so plenty to play for in this one as insane as that sounds. Northwestern meanwhile has enjoyed two moral victories against Ohio State and Wisconsin the last two weeks but while holding your own against top ten teams is impressive, the losses have resulted in NU slipping back under .500 to 4-5 on the season. With their home stretch going at Purdue, at Minnesota, and Illinois, Fitz’s crew has to go 2-1 to get to the 6-6 mark for a post season berth. With how good Minnesota has looked this season, slipping up in West Lafayette would be disastrous for Northwestern to get back to a bowl game.
- Saturday, 11am, BTN
Snoozer:
Iowa vs Michigan
Michigan is really good and Iowa is really bad. A game finishing 56-0 seems more likely than a 14 point affair. The Ferentz era will come to a crashing referendum Saturday night in Kinnick.
- Saturday, 7pm, ABC…Seriously, why is this game on ABC in prime time? Hopefully they have a made for TV movie ready to cue up once Iowa is trailing 21-0 after the first quarter.
Upset Watch:
Sadly now that we’re in league play there is no real easy way to make the distinction between being on the right end or wrong end of an upset. That’s always a fun feature of the non-conference but now that we’re in league any upset is potentially season crippling or season defining.
Right and Wrong end:
Penn State losing to Indiana would crush their Eastern hopes. After all they have a tiebreaker loss to Michigan but their Pitt loss also means they will end with a worse record at 10-2 than Michigan and Ohio State at 11-1 in an outcome of all three going 8-1 in league so they are behind the eight ball already. But even without the title hopes, a 10-2 season and a New Year’s Day bowl would be a huge get coming into this season. For Indiana they have five wins so it would not only lock down a bowl but be the marquee win over a ranked team that Kevin Wilson still lacks.
I mentioned above that Indiana needs to be balanced and get enough from their defense. I also highlighted that they need to protect the ball. I have some great numbers for this. In their losses, Indiana has a -7 turnover margin and 11 giveaways. In their wins they have a +4 margin and just 6 giveaways. They only have one win in which they lost the turnover margin and that was against Rutgers (-3 margin, 4 turnovers). It is very cliche to say turnovers will tell the story because we see plenty of good teams overcome a sloppy day and no team sets out to have a bunch of gaffes but borderline clubs like Indiana don’t have that luxury. Let’s see if IU can get these three factors in their favor to try and pull off the stunner.
Elsewhere (Alphabetical Order):
Illinois at Wisconsin – Badgers enter their final push controlling their own destiny, play three currently unranked teams, and host two of them. That doesn’t mean there aren’t pitfalls. Illinois has been playing a little bit better after a 1-4 start that included a loss to Purdue. They are 2-2 in their last four and did some really good things against Michigan State. With young starter due to injury in Jeff George Jr having some moments, Illinois’s offense has looked a little better but the Badger defense looks to be too strong. Plus with it being homecoming weekend, Wisconsin should have some extra energy against a team they may normally be looking past.
- Saturday, 2:30pm, ESPN 2
Maryland vs Ohio State – With Perry Hills Maryland has a decent offense. Without him, look out. He re-injured his throwing shoulder yet again last week against Michigan. Ohio State was already the heavy favorite even before that hit a week ago sidelined Hills. Buckeyes should feast.
- Saturday, 2:30pm, ESPN
Michigan State vs Rutgers – Who would have guessed that the winner of this game is guaranteed to end the season with at least one league win? That’s right, the enter with identical 2-7 (0-6) marks. I’m not sure who will win but I’m tempted to say Rutgers. They have lost by a combined 8 points the last two weeks and I think it is easier to stay hungry and try to get your coach his first league win in a rebuild year than to be a preseason favorite like MSU who has been eliminated from even bowl consideration.
- Saturday, 11am, BTN
Western Michigan vs Buffalo – No Tuesday night game this week, WMU hosts the struggling Bulls next Friday. I’ll have more about this game closer to it next week but didn’t want y’all to think I have given up on the honorary Big Ten member who is sitting at 2 league wins, more than three teams and matches the same win mark of two others.
- Next Friday, TBA
Random Musing
The ruling that the Big Ten is going to Friday night games is a really tough pill to swallow. First there is the educational aspect. That means leaving for away games a day earlier. That means more class missed. Also think of the teams hosting the game. What would class be like that day for the home team? What would class be like for home team fans? Then there is the travel aspect for fans. Many Big Ten teams rely on fans from outside the college town. Iowa relies on fans from Des Moines – 2 hours away, the quad cities – 1 hour away, and even Chicago – 4 hours away. How do these fans come on a work day? They don’t.
Iowa isn’t alone in this argument. Similar concerns for Nebraska fans coming from Omaha, Wisconsin coming in from Milwaukee, Illinois traveling from Chicago, Michigan and Michigan State from various locations including Detroit, Penn State from all over Western PA, Maryland from DC, Rutgers from New York, and our two Indiana programs relying on folks from Indianapolis. Only Minnesota and Ohio State play in cities big enough to fill their stadiums but let’s be real, they too rely on traveling fans and would also create a ton of nightmare traffic that night after work. If anything, Friday games would be even more burdensome on the people of Minneapolis and Columbus.
There are other concerns, too. Prep athletes play their games on Friday so not only are we overshadowing their work, but it makes recruiting that much harder because that takes a date (or two) away from scheduling campus visits. Lastly there is the have and have not aspect of this allowing Michigan and other big schools to opt out. This divide is what is killing the Big 12. We have always been a league about equity and this chips away at it.
Finally, look at ratings for sports. They are going down. Why? Over exposure. There is now a college or NFL game on Friday (College), Saturday (College), Sunday (NFL), Monday (NFL), Tuesday (College), Wednesday (College), and Thursday (Both). The Tuesday and Wednesday games are the MACtion games that, although fun, are small schools with no fans in the stands. The Thursday NFL games are always awful and the Friday college game features Boston College for the second time this year. For the most part no one wants to watch these games. The Big Ten is trying to do a money grab thinking people will care about watching Northwestern vs Maryland on a Friday night. Guess what, they don’t. No one is buying this decision and no one is buying your leadership commissioner Delany.
Big Ten and Counting 