2016 Josh’s Week 2 Top 25

I hate the AP poll.  I think it has silly swings of teams and doing a poll before any game is played clouds judgement.  In the past I have waited until an entire month of the season has been played before giving a ranking but this is a new year and a renewed interest in the blog so I’ll give it a crack to try and rank things after one week.

Real AP Poll:

1. Alabama (54)
2. Clemson (2)
3. Florida State (4)
4. Ohio State
5. Michigan (1)
6. Houston
7. Stanford
8. Washington
9. Georgia – A nine place rise after beating North Carolina?  UNC was only 22nd and is now out of the polls.  Oh by the way, UNC had a second half lead, too.  I think the Dawgs have a high ceiling but this feels like putting the cart before the horse.
10. Wisconsin – Newsflash, LSU looks like a 7 or 8 win team…so unranked to top 10?  Hmm…
11. Texas – Sure, they have a defense worthy of the 11th spot.
12. Michigan State
13. Louisville
14. Oklahoma – #3 loses to #11.  #11 goes to #6 and #3 goes to #14.  How can a voter justify this big a swing?  It is basically admitting that the preseason poll is the stupidest thing to ever put out.
15. TCU
16. Iowa
17. Tennessee – Newsflash, Appalachian State is really good.  No shame in struggling.
18. Notre Dame
19. Ole Miss
20. Texas A&M
21. LSU
22. Oklahoma State
23. Baylor
24. Oregon
25. Miami

My Top 25:

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Florida State
4. Ohio State
5. Michigan
6. Stanford – That defense looks like what we expect Stanford to have.  Last year it wasn’t and it cost them a chance at the playoffs.
7. Tennessee
8. Washington
9. Houston – If they win out will I have them in my playoffs?  Yes!
10. Oklahoma – Issues, yes.  But a loss at Houston (okay, fine, it was “neutral”) doesn’t warrant a fall off the cliff.
11. Michigan State
12. TCU
13. Iowa
14. Georgia
15. Louisville – Great debut, but it was Charlotte.  Very excited to see how they look at Syracuse with some actual competition.
16. Wisconsin
17. Oklahoma State
18. Texas
19. Texas A&M
20. Notre Dame – Do you remember that cheesy, “Where’s the beef?” commercial?  Well, where’s the defense?  Irish got shredded through the air by a freshman qb.
21. Ole Miss – The injuries are a concern but I’ll still take Chad Kelly over other SEC qb situations, for instance the one at…
22. LSU…leaves a lot to be desired.
23. Baylor
24. Oregon
25. SEE BELOW – Final Verdict

See Below – What the hell is that?

This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give a team the final spot all willy nilly.  As always I start with weeding out within conferences with multiple nominees first.

American Athletic Conference

South Florida and Navy both looked sharp in their easy openers but the Midshipmen have so many new faces that I’ll take a wait and see approach with them.

AAC Nominee: USF

Atlantic Coast Conference

Miami, NC State, Syracuse, Duke, and Pitt all got off to 1-0 starts, are all teams I think can make bowls, and all played FCS teams.  With not much to go on, the U dropping 70 on their opponent was the best statement.

ACC Nominee: Miami

Big Ten

Illinois and Nebraska are both bowl caliber teams.  Both won their openers with ease.  The difference is UI played a FCS team and Nebraska played a Mountain West club.  Slight nod then towards NU.

Big Ten Nominee: Nebraska

Conference USA

Southern Miss had a huge rally to win at a SEC school.  Western Kentucky picked up right where they left off last year and crushed conference foe Rice.  Both are great but Middle Tennessee State enters the discussion too with a 55-0 drubbing of a FCS school.  A lot to dissect but USM’s win at Kentucky was the best statement of the three.  Side note, dangerous Marshall has not had their opener yet.

C-USA Nominee: Southern Miss

Mid American Conference

Central Michigan, Toledo, and Western Michigan are all in the super stacked MAC west.  Central destroyed a FCS program, not too shabby.  Toledo won at Arkansas State (defending Sun Belt champ), pretty impressive.  Western won at a 10-win Big Ten team from last year.  Okay, I’ll take that one.

MAC Nominee: Western Michigan

Mountain West Conference

I said on the pod in our Mountain West preview that I think both Boise State and SDSU could go undefeated before the title game.  Well they each won and while the Aztecs did put up a shutout with their stout D, the Broncos won on the road and were so good offensively that Louisiana Lafayette fired their DC after the game.  That warrants moving on!

MW Nominee: Boise State

Pacific 12 Conference

In addition to all the other ranked teams this deep league has, Cal, ASU, Colorado, and Utah all had nice debut wins.  Despite the shutout, Utah played a FCS school – as did the Sun Devils – so they’re out.  Cal destroyed Hawai’i but Michigan showed that isn’t very difficult.  I’ll go with the Buffs obliterating in-state rival Colorado State in the Rocky Mountain Showdown.

Pac 12 Nominee: Colorado

Sun Belt

Georgia Southern has a new coach and yet cruised to a 54-0 win.  South Alabama though deserves the nod because they won at Mississippi State.  Road win against a power 5 lets you hang around.  Way to go Jags.

SB Nominee: South Alabama

Elimination Time

These eight schools join Army, BYU, and Texas Tech to create a final eleven all striving for the last spot in the greatest rankings list of all time, ever, until this time next week.

FCS Much?…South Florida, Miami, and Texas Tech all dipped their pens in the FCS pool last week.  See ya.

Bad Game(s)…This shouldn’t apply since all teams are 1-0 but I can still find some wiggle room.  South Alabama won thanks to a missed chip shot field goal against a team expected to do very little in the SEC.  BYU won an ugly 18-17 slug fest against an Arizona team that isn’t projected to be a contender in the Pac 12.

Final Six

This is where I like to do the Best Win / Worst Win / Best Loss / Worst Loss comparison to finalize things.

• Army
  • BW: At Temple
  • WW: N/A
  • BL: N/A
  • WL: N/A
• Boise State
  • BW: At ULL
  • WW: N/A
  • BL: N/A
  • WL: N/A
• Colorado:
  • BW: Colorado State (Neutral)
  • WW: N/A
  • BL: N/A
  • WL: N/A
• Nebraska
  • BW: Fresno State
  • WW: N/A
  • BL: N/A
  • WL: N/A
• Southern Miss
  • BW: At Kentucky
  • WW: N/A
  • BL: N/A
  • WL: N/A
• Western Michigan
  • BW: At Northwestern
  • WW: N/A
  • BL: N/A
  • WL: N/A

First thing to jump out, Nebraska was the only team to play a true home game.  Thanks for playing, Huskers.  Next thing I see is Boise, despite playing a road game, played a Sun Belt team.  That stands out when you have two Big Ten foes, an American opponent, and a Mountain West rival in this list.  Broncos bounced.  As much as I liked Army’s win (and think Temple will still be a factor in the AAC), you can’t overlook the fact that the Owls have a drastically different defense due to player departures.  I reluctantly boot them.  Speaking of new faces, the Fightin’ Bobos of Fort Collins had a ton of roster turnover after last year’s bowl run.  As a result, Colorado gets put in ‘wait and see’ land.

So…Southern Miss and Western Michigan.  Both have experienced QBs back.  Both have conference title aspirations.  Only one however may not have deserved their win.  Hear me out, as good as Western looked at Ryan Field, they had a goofy last minute fumble touchback call reviewed and reviewed.  Had the ball been ruled to be flipped back into play, NU recovered in the endzone for a potential game winning touchdown.  These rankings are done with such a scientific approach it seems silly to let Western’s odd way to win stand at this time.

FINAL VERDICT:

25. Southern Miss

League Breakdown:

6 – SEC

5 – Big 12, Big Ten

3 – ACC, Pac 12

1 – American, C-USA, Independent