Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction 2016 – Rutgers

Obscured by the train wreck at Illinois, Randy Edsall’s high-profile flame out at Maryland, and Jerry Kill’s health-related departure, Rutgers also went through a coaching change as they enter 2016-17.  Kyle Flood’s emailing of professors was bad enough but several player arrests put his job in jeopardy.  A 4-8 season was the perfect reason to let go of a guy who was becoming increasingly toxic.  Rutgers won 8 games the previous season, so what happened?  Well first they had a horrible defense (104th nationally) but were also breaking in a new starting quarterback and outside Leonte Carroo, were severely lacking playmakers.

On-field talent concerns was made even worse by a difficult schedule that featured cross-over games with Wisconsin and Nebraska as well as a bowl club in Washington State during the non-conference was a recipe for disaster.  Rutgers didn’t disappoint, beating just Norfolk State, Army, Kansas, and stunning Indiana to pull off a limp 4-8 (1-7) mark.

While other Big Ten schools had more jarring coaching changes, Rutgers may have won the hiring battle, nabbing Chris Ash from Ohio State’s staff.  Ash also has stops at Arkansas, Wisconsin, Iowa State, and Drake on his resume.  The Iowa native has done nothing but build solid defenses.  While I love his long-term potential, in the short-term Rutgers faces many challenges.

Offensively, Ash is bringing in a scheme similar to OSU’s, utilizing running quarterbacks.  Last year’s starting quarterback, Chris Laviano, does not fit that mold.  Perhaps TCU graduate transfer Zach Allen will end up calling plays, but that is a lot to learn for a first time coach, quarterback, and other offensive players in a short amount of time.  At best the RU qb situation can be described as unknown.

As for the other skill positions, Carroo is gone but Janarion Grant had flashes last year as a returner and potential as a wideout.  They also return all three of their main backs from last year.  Despite none of them hitting 1000 yards, they all averaged 5.2 yards or more.  The situation with the ball isn’t great, but it isn’t hopeless.  If Rutgers even sniffs a bowl, it will be by scoring a lot more points than most people are expecting.

Defensively, Rutgers gave up 40+ six times a season ago.  They gave up 28+ in every game but the Nofolk, Kansas, and Army games and I think the reason this is noteworthy is pretty self-explanatory.  Darius Hamilton, the leader of the d, missed last year with an injury so getting him back is big.  The line is actually pretty respectable but the entire linebacking corps is new and the secondary was shelled a year ago…so trial by fire?

2016 Schedule

At Washington

• Best Case – Huskies are a trendy pick to break the Stanford – Oregon hold on the Pac 12 North.  Even if they weren’t, the track record of teams going cross-country for road games, let alone in a coach’s debut, is not impressive.  0-1
• Worst Case – Hamilton gets hurt again.  0-1
• Prediction – A November loss to Arizona State dropped UW to 4-6 but they won out, including crushing fellow bowl-bound Pacific Northwest club Washington State in the annual Apple Cup, to get the buzz going this summer.  Adding to the hype, Chris Peterson’s club boasted the 12th best defense in the nation.  I like that unit’s chances against a Scarlet Knights team that has so many questions about their offense.  L, 35-13, 0-1

Howard

• BC – FCS Howard went 1-10 and lost to Boston College 76-0 last season.  1-1
• WC – More about that BC team, they went 3-9 (0-8) and had the 115th ranked scoring offense a year ago even when factoring in a 76 point game.  Whelp, 1-1
• P – Howard is one of the worst teams in a lower division of football, Rutgers will not lose this game.  W, 42-6, 1-1

New Mexico

• BC – The Lobos lost to Arizona State and Tulsa out of conference and then went 5-3 in the Mountain West.  Not exactly world beaters.  2-1
• WC – On the other hand Bob Davey’s crew made it to a bowl game and beat a solid Air Force team and won at Boise along the way to get there.  1-2
• P – New Mexico had the 8th best rushing game last year but their leading man, Jhurell Pressley is now with the Vikings…however, they have Lamar Jordan!  The quarterback rushed for over 800 yards and 9 touchdowns.  He is a true duel threat and really came alive in a great bowl game against Arizona that the Lobos fell just short in.  This is a highly dangerous squad and an upset would not surprise me at all.  My reservation is I don’t think New Mexico has enough of a passing attack to take advantage of Rutgers’s biggest weakness.  RU wins…barely.  W, 24-21, 2-1

Iowa

• BC – Iowa has one of the best quarterbacks in the league and a plethora of talent back on defense.  Difficult to see Rutgers winning this league opener.  2-2
• WC – The already fragile defense cracks and the change in offensive system has led this group to go from anemic to dysfunctional.  1-3
• P – When you looks at the X’s and O’s, Iowa has the dean of Big Ten coaches who has 3 BCS level bowl games, 2 Big Ten championships, 1 BT title game appearances, and is a 4x BT coach of the year.  Rutgers has a guy who has never been a head coach.  In terms of the talent, Iowa has advantage under center and the much better defense.  L, 28-10, 2-2 (0-1)

At Ohio State

• BC – Nope.  2-3
• WC – Double nope.  1-4
• P – Since OSU doesn’t play Illinois or Purdue this year, this is the biggest talent gulf league game for the Bucks this year.  Not a recipe for success.  L, 55-13, 2-3 (0-2)

Michigan

• BC – UM creamed the Knights last year, best case would be a moral victory like RU achieved against MSU (31-24 loss) a year ago.  2-4
• WC – A repeat of last year’s 49-16 blowout.  1-5
• P – Michigan’s recruiting class, fiery coach, and hungry fans base has their eyes on Indianapolis.  To get there, they won’t lose a game like this.  L, 45-14, 2-4 (0-3)

Illinois

• BC – Without spoiling the rest of my post, taking on Illinois at home is Rutgers’s best crack at a league win.  3-4
• WC – Lovie Smith knows football but he hasn’t worked with college kids in a long, long time.  Still, his knowledge of the game makes him a fascinating hire.  1-6
• P – Illinois went 5-7 last year and had a pretty decent defense.  Their rushing attack and OL was terrible and that predictably caused issues but Wes Lunt isn’t a horrible QB and running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn had a decent freshman season all things considered.  Game feels like a toss-up but the Illini weren’t a complete joke a year ago so I will take them (already hating this pick).  L, 24-21, 2-5 (0-4)

At Minnesota

• BC – Minnesota’s offense was a train wreck last year and at 59th in scoring, the defense was serviceable but not the purple eaters of Vikings lore.  Huge road victory for this new staff.  4-4
• WC – UM still made, and won, a bowl last year despite a tumultuous season.  1-7
• P – UM’s offensive woes were so great that one of Tracy Claeys’ first acts as head coach was to can the OC right after the season.  The problem is, was UM’s issues staff related or talent related?  Mitch Leidner doesn’t do much for me but does get some favorable pub by other Big Ten observers.  Personally, a better Gopher to look at is Shannon Brooks, who had a solid freshman season at RB.  I think UM has just enough talent to slip by and don’t ignore the bonus of home field matters in toss-ups games.  L, 28-24, 2-6 (0-5)

Indiana

• BC – After two straight wins, the RU bowl push hits a speed bump with this Hoosiers club that I have making a bowl thanks to winning games like this.  4-5
• WC – Don’t worry Rutgers fans, Kirk Ferentz’s first year was a 1-10 disaster, too.  1-8
• P – Indiana has a really skilled receiving group, a nice running back in Devine Redding, and a defense that returns a ton of starters so that unit should make some improvement.  Fact is they are just better than this RU team.  L, 38-21, 2-7 (0-6)

At Michigan State

• BC – I know, I know, RU only lost this game by a touchdown a year ago but I’m not going to let that cloud my judgement.  MSU is one of the best run programs in the league and I fully expect them to contend for Indianapolis again.  4-6
• WC – Don’t worry RU fans, Greg Schiano started 3-20 (0-14).  1-9
• P – By this point in a long season, I am fully expecting Chris Ash to be working his defense into a frenzy so that way they can be more competitive the next year.  It won’t pay dividends in 2016, but if he can mold them the right way, look for the Knights to be much more consistent and competitive the following year.  L, 28-14, 2-8 (0-7)

Penn State

• BC – Franklin totally flops and is well on his way to getting fired.  Rutgers steals a home win against one of their geographic rivals, keeping a bowl in play.  5-6
• WC – Schiano’s first four years were a combined 12-34 (3-24) so be patient New Jersey!  1-10
• P – As much as I rag on Franklin, he always seems to do just enough to stay ahead of the firing committee by winning games like this.  Sort of like last year’s uninspired six point win over Army.  L, 21-17, 2-9 (0-8)

At Maryland

• BC – Ash does the unthinkable and gets this crew to a bowl game.  They gladly take the Pinstripe Bowl invite to remain close to home and work on building up their fan base.  Spoiling senior day and clinching a bowl in College Park also helps create a rivalry between these two teams.  Based on how ugly both state flags are, I say just sew together a Maryland and NJ flag and call it the I-95 rag.  The winning team gets to rip the thing in half and stomp on the other state’s flag.  That should create an intense rivalry, no?  6-6
• WC – In a battle of new head coaches, Ash comes up short against D.J. Durkin’s Terps club.  1-11
• P – Certain teams are lower on talent because of recruiting but well coached – i.e. Minnesota.  Some teams are higher on talent but struggle because of coaching and that was Maryland’s problem last year.  Caleb Rowe and Perry Hills are both adequate qbs – especially if they can cut down on interceptions – and Hills is a solid runner.  Levern Jacobs and D.J. Moore are also decent wideouts.  I expect UM’s offense to be a little better and lord knows their defense can’t get any worse.  Heartbreak for Rutgers as they can’t notch a league win but they play a whole lot better down the stretch.  L, 24-21, 2-10 (0-9)

Final Notes

From 8 wins to 4 to 2, what gives?  Well a lot of this can be placed on Kyle Flood’s recruiting, or lack there of.  His final class was 56th but its best player transferred.  2014 was 53rd but has had 2 players kicked off the team and 5 transfer.  2013 was 50th but its best player, Nadir Barnwell, was kicked off the team.  The 2012 class, put together by Schiano, but held together by Flood, was ranked 24th.  It’s best player, Leonte Carroo, is skipping his senior year to go to the NFL.  Throughout all of this Rutgers hasn’t been able to get a centerpiece quarterback, either.  So while Ash has been kicking butt on the recruiting trail for 2017, the damage was already done.  Rivals ranks this as the 79th best class, just between Fresno State and Southern Miss.  In fact, even Purdue and Illinois are ranked ahead of the Knights at 74th and 68th respectively.  Between a new coach, radically altered offensive scheme, difficult schedule, and almost a totally barren cabinet, the pieces are there for a total meltdown of a season.  The only question that remains is how long will it take this program to be like a phoenix and rise from the……ash.  Ugg, what an awful pun.  But yeah, keep your expectations low Piscataway, this is the worst team in the east.