How warm is Pat Chambers’ seat at Penn State? That’s a dang good question. At any other school he may not have even made it to year five. At Penn State though he has improved his overall win-loss every year and they were over .500 last season so he remains. What does he need to do to get a sixth year? Wow, another good question. Compete in the Big Ten would do wonders. His best conference mark is just 6-12. Last year PSU took advantage of a woefully soft non-con to start 12-2. An 0-6 league start, including a loss to Rutgers, quickly brought the Lion faithful back to reality. A 3-14 league record late sank the Lions all the way to 15-15 but then something wonky happened. They won at Minnesota in the regular season finale, beat Nebraska to open the Big Ten Tournament, then upset NCAA-bound Iowa in the Big Ten tournament. Purdue finally ousted the upstart club by five to end the season at 18-16 (4-14) but did that mini run show something, or was it just false hope? Crap, another solid question.
The biggest problem with seeing that run as something is the departure of D.J. Newbill (20.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 3.1 apg). Newbill did it all as Penn State’s best player last year. The senior may not have had much team success but his career numbers were staggering. Thankfully Newbill is the only key cog gone. Other key departures are Geno Thorpe (8.7 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.3 apt) and John Johnson (7.4 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 1.4 apg). Johnson graduated and Thrope transferred to USF. His improvement from freshman to sophomore year was promising but with Shep Garner‘s improvement last year, perhaps Thorpe didn’t see how he was going to get as much playing time as he would have wanted.
Ross Travis (5.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg), Alan Wisniewski, and Kevin Montminy are also gone from the team after graduating. Travis is the biggest loss of this trio. His 6.3 rebounds a night were tops on the team. Despite being a tad undersized as a 6’7″ forward, the senior had intensity and a knack at reading bounces to be a solid rebounder. In fact, his 6.3 boards last year was actually the worst rebounding average he had while in State College.
Obviously removing Newbill’s 20 points a night from a team that averaged just 66.9 is a scary proposition for PSU basketball fans. They will rely heavily on Garner and Brandon Taylor. Garner is a pesky 6’1″ guard who averaged 9.1 ppg, 2.7 rpg, and 2.3 agp as a freshman last year. Taylor is an undersized senior forward listed at 6’6″ but still managed a respectable 9.2 ppg and 5.3 rpg. Shep’s continued development and Taylor improving on his numbers is a must if PSU is to improve.
Other returning players include Donovon Jack (3.5 ppg, 2.7 rpg), Devin Foster (2.7 ppg, 2.0 rpg), and Jordan Dickerson (2.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg). Dickerson had the most playing time of this group and at 7’1″ he can at least clog the lane as a defensive asset. Deeper on the bench we find Payton Banks (1.7 ppg, 1.3 rpg) and Julian Moore (1.5 ppg, 1.6 rpg). Both struggled as freshman a year ago but the 6’6″-listed guard Banks and 6’10” Moore have one thing not coachable and that is size. Considering the Lion’s two best returning players are undersized, Chambers needs to find some length somewhere. Lastly Isaiah Washington returns after missing last season with a medical hardship waiver. The 2-star recruit turned down some notable mid-major programs like Saint Joseph’s and George Mason to come to Penn State. He retains all four years of eligibility.
So that returning talent, yikes. Stick a fork in Penn State then, right? Well, not so fast since they have a pair of intriguing freshman coming to town. Josh Reaves is a 6’4″ shooting guard, a 4-star recruit and 74th in ESPN’s top 100. He turned down Georgetown, Maryland, Villanova, VCU and Temple to become a Nittany Lion. Joining him is Mike Watkins, a 6’8″ F/C who is also a 4-star kid. He landed at 90th on ESPN’s top 100. The recruiting class is rounded out by Deividas Zemgulis, a 6’6″ small forward. As a 3-star recruit he is listed as the 75th best small forward in this incoming class.
It seems obvious that Garner and Reaves will be the starting back-court. Taylor can be a 3 or stretch 4, after all he attempted 5 three pointers a night last year and hit 33.5% from there. Watkins should also start leaving a question as to who the fifth should be. Do you go with Moore or Dickerson as a true center, pushing Watkins to the three or play a third guard, keeping Watkins as a stretch-four. The problem with going with an extra guard is I’m not sure who could be a reliable third starting guard. It will be intriguing how they get these pieces to fit.
Two other names are also on the PSU roster. The first is Terrence Samuel, a 6’4″ guard who transferred from Connecticut. He averaged 20 minutes a night last year but didn’t have much production to show for it. He has to sit out this season per NCAA transfer rules. Sam Halle will also suit up after spending last year as a walk-on who chipped in on the scout team.
Best Case
The non-con is another grab-bag of winnable games. The only difficult opponent is SMU in a tournament but there is no guarantee they even play since the Mustangs are on the other side of the 4-team bracket. Penn State does PSU type things and flubs a few games, especially with relying on so many underclassmen to hit league play at 10-3. Once in league, Penn State battles hard and sniffs .500, before ending 8-10. The 18-13 mark puts them in contention for the NIT, especially if they can win some games in the Big Ten tournament again. Reaves and Watkins prove to be the real deal and along with Garner, they have a great foundation for a NCAA push in 2016.
Worst Case
The freshman play like freshman all too often. Despite such a soft opening 13 games, the Lions only manage an 8-5 mark. Once in league play they go 4-14 like last year to finish a woeful 12-19. Chambers gets fired. Watkins transfers and Reaves decides he’d rather make money even as a D-leaguer than stick around for the PSU rebuild.
Prediction
Although young, I really don’t see how Penn State doesn’t win 9 or 10 games in the non-con. Once in league I see some manageable games. Minnesota at home and two game series with Rutgers, Nebraska and Northwestern. Of course there are always upsets along the way. They also have the current mystery of Iowa as a two game set on their schedule. If those two freshman pan out, PSU should pass last year’s league win total. Six to eight league wins may not sound like a lot, but I think they can get it done. That will put them right around .500 for the season again but with improved league showings and some solid underclassmen to build around, I think Chambers returns for a sixth champaign.
Big Ten and Counting 