To put Ohio State’s success under Thad Matta in perspective, look at last season’s 25-win campaign that ended in a 6-11 upset to open the tournament. That was the earliest knockout and fewest wins since 2008-09 when they were 0-1 in the NCAAs and won 22 games. In fact, 25 wins is the fourth fewest under Matta. Ohio State is not just one of the most consistent teams in the league, they are a solid benchmark for consistency nationally. A four game losing streak in January put any hopes of a league title out of reach but a 15-0 start and a run to the semi finals in the Big Ten tournament ended any bubble talk.
OSU is the type of program that reloads rather than rebuilds but an important trio is gone. LaQuinton Ross was last year’s leading scorer at 15.2 ppg but the 6’8″ forward also hauled in 6 boards a night, made his free throws and seldom turned it over. Lanzelle Smith Jr. was the second leading scorer at 11 points per. The athletic guard hauled in 5 boards a night and valued the ball with just a single turnover averaged. Last in this trio is Aaron Craft. Always a bigger name than actual talent he did still have a solid senior year. He was third on the team in points (9.8) but led the team in assists. He was a value defensively but his shooting percentages will not be missed. He is a classic case of too much media talk. Every OSU game they would talk about him for 40 minutes. Had he flown under the radar, he would be a highly respected player for his work ethic. Instead, through no fault of his own, the buzz and hype became legendary and fans around the league loathed him and laughed whenever he bricked a shot…which was pretty frequent.
The only other player from last year’s team to move on is Amedeo Della Valle. The three-point specialist guard appeared in 33 games last year, averaged just 11 minutes yet managed to launch 74 triples in that time. The Italian native left early to pursue a professional career in Europe.
So the starting key trio gone and a player expected to contribute instant offense off the bench leaves Ohio State with more questions than most year heading into this campaign. The returning talent is certainly good, but not to the usual standards we see from the Buckeye program. 6’11” center Amir Williams and 6’1″ guard Shannon Scott are the two most important cogs back. Scott did a little bit of everything a season ago with 7.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg and 3.4 agp but this season he is excelling at running the offense and currently averages 7.8 assists a night. As you would expect from a guy the size of Williams he is a load on the glass and a bother defensively with 5.6 board and 2.0 blocks a night. He has some scoring touch too with 7 points a night. All his numbers this year are within a few tenths of what he was doing last year so it is safe to say you know what you are getting from him.
Not as well-known as Williams and Scott is senior forward Sam Thompson. He was quietly reliable as a sophomore and junior averaging 7.8/7.9 ppg the two seasons. His rebounding dipped between the two season but he seems to have that sorted out and is putting in a good final act. He is averaging 10.3/4.2 a night – easily on track for career numbers. Yet another forward, Marc Loving, is also back after a so-so freshman year. His 4.4 ppg, 1.7 rpg in 11 minutes of work aren’t impressive but as so often happens for OSU the lumps he took as a freshman in practice and games has toughened him up. He is averaging 12.3/2.9 this year in 23 minutes of work – good enough to make him the second leading scorer on the club.
Also returning is reserve center Trey McDonald and deep bench players Jake Lorbach and Andrew Goldstein. McDonald gets the most playing time of the group. At 6’8″, 240 the kid is a load. While his rebounding and defense is alright he has never developed a scoring touch to garner more minutes.
Pretty unimpressive compared to OSU teams of the past. A decent guard, a serviceable center, a couple forwards with some upside and three bench players – two of which seldom see the court. This is Ohio State though, you know they have kids coming in who will be college-level athletes and ready to roll. Look no further than 5-star, 96 grade, 13th overall in nation, #1 position, #2 regional, #1 state shooting guard D’Angelo Russell. He turned down offers from basically everyone, including home-state Louisville, to come to the Bucks. His stat line through the non-con as a diaper-dandy? A pretty useful 17.2 ppg / 4.6 rpg / 5.5 apg / 1.8 spg. Only a truly sick Buckeye-basher would bring up his 3 turnovers a game. Hey, you can’t put a stat line up like that without breaking a few eggs. He’s the leading scorer right now for the team and his other numbers are all second-best on the team. He can do it all. If OSU wins the league and he keeps this pace up, he can be both POTY an FOTY. Enjoy your 3 turnovers now?
Another 5-star, 90 grade, 28 overall, #8 position, #1 State player was lured to OSU in small-forward Jae’sean Tate. It wasn’t too hard for OSU to nab him, he is of course from Ohio. A high school injury will make his freshman year a little quieter than expected, but at 6’5″ he is too small to be a three in college anyway. Using this year to rehab and transition to a more natural two position will serve him well for his career later. Still, he has 6.7 ppg and 4.8 boards a night in under 20 minutes of action in what was a bit of a question-mark season for the highly regarded Tate.
The new faces get even deeper with 4-star, 87 grade, 58th overall 6’3″ guard Kameron Williams. He is a red-shirt freshman from the 2013 class due to mono. Having an entire year to pick up the game without losing eligibility has paid off already with 9.8 ppg. He has taken over the Della Valle role of three-point chucking from the bench. He has attempted fewer than 4-three pointers just three times this year. Once was three attempts. The other two he didn’t attempt a shot due to few minutes (blowout win, big hole against UNC). So he hurls 4 triples a game and makes about 50% of them in 18 minutes a game…sounds like how my brother plays video game basketball.
Graduate school transfer Anthony Lee was a force at Temple last year scoring 13.6 ppg and hauling 8.6 boards a night. The front court is deep but Lee’s experience is unmatched. A pair of bigs will play into future development is 6’10” center David Bell and Virginia Tech transfer (cannot play due to NCAA rules) Trevor Thompson.
There is one other player I failed to mention. Yet another 5-star recruit! Keita Bates-Diop is a 92 grade, 22nd overall prospect but at 6’7″ and only 190 he is a little small for his position right now. Once he bulks up he should be a force as a four. Big Ten fans are rolling their eyes now as they know this kid will kill them in a year or two. For those of you keeping score at home, OSU has added three five-star recruits and a highly touted 4-star kid from last year who redshirted. You will find a barf bag in the seat-back pocket in front of you.
Best Case
The talented newcomers mesh with the wily vets and OSU turns in another campaign of contending for a league title and 25+ wins. The front court does not appear good enough to match Wisconsin in league or the truly elite outside the league like Kentucky or Arizona but that is a battle for another day. The regular season should be (relatively) smooth sailing for the Bucks as they make the NCAAs for the 7th straight season. Once there they can make a run based on the matchup. They would love to avoid any club with elite bigs until Bates-Diop truly develops.
Worst Case
The two losses OSU has exposed a few things. First the Louisville game exemplified their issues down low as Blackshear torched them for 22 and Harrell contributed 13. The UNC game showed that OSU doesn’t have the offensive fire power to keep pace when the defense is off. Worse, the forward issue cropped up in that one too as Brice Johnson went 8 of 10 for 18 points. The trend in these games it that OSU is really good, but not elite. The are 0-2 against elite-level teams and untested with a 1-2 mark against teams in power leagues (Marquette being the lone win).
Prediction
Dress up the 0-2 mark against UL and UNC all you want but they are excelling against the lower-end teams and they will face plenty of that with a favorable league schedule. Their Big Ten slate includes Purdue twice, Penn State twice, Iowa twice and Michigan twice. They also have a favorable home-road split with the better teams: UW, Maryland, Illinois and Nebraska at home versus a road trip to MSU? Anyone would take that. Based on the one weakness of this team, their hardest games might be the two battles against Indiana who is getting 20/11 combined from their two bigs as Troy Williams and Hanner Mosquera-Perea have exceeded expectations. Already at 10 wins (most likely 11 by the end of the week) and 10 games I see as “locks” puts them at 21 without factoring any wins in the toss-up games. Clearly this team will be dancing, probably as a top 5 seed. Once in March, who knows how far the freshman phoneme can take them. I recall a Syracuse team that did alright with such a young superstar.
Big Ten and Counting 
Aaron Craft had been at OSU so long that he was hosted on his recruiting visit by Jerry Lucas
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