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2024 BEST CASE / WORST CASE / PREDICTION: INDIANA

Welcome back to an even bigger Big Ten and Counting, it is late August which means football is just around the corner! As a reminder, I do these previews in order of last year’s finish which means we kick off with…Indiana. The rebuilding Hoosiers won 14 games in 2019 and 2020 combined but Tom Allen’s teams won just nine more games in his tenure and he was let go last season. Will the rebuild be rolling in year one? It seems unlikely, but Northwestern won 10 games last year so I suppose anything is possible. Just a reminder, these Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction posts work by summarizing last year, highlighting a few things about the offense, defense, special teams, and then going game by game saying the best case season, the worst case season, and then what I’m predicting.

As mentioned at the top, Indiana is one of several Big Ten clubs entering a debut season for a new coach. Curt Cignetti comes in to Bloomington with one heck of a resume. His worst season as a coach is going 6-5 with Elon back in 2018. He was outstanding at D-2 Indiana University Pennsylvania then dominated the FCS ranks with James Madison, then kept the Dukes going the last two years at the FBS level. At age 63 and with only two years of FBS experience you can see why other programs didn’t take the plunge with him but for Indiana this is an A+ hire. They need a coach who can, ya know, coach! Indiana isn’t going to win recruiting battles with Michigan or Ohio State, but the right coach can win those games. All signs appear that Indiana has that coach.

A major piece in Tom Allen’s struggles post 2020 were the quarterback woes. Michael Penix Jr. got hurt and then transferred to Washington. Last year the IU signal callers combined for 2,500 yards, 17 TDs (an 18th was thrown by wideout Donaven McCulley), and 10 INTs. Those numbers were…fine, I guess. About 210 yards per game but it wasn’t terribly efficient, averaging around 60% completion percentage, which is also…fine. The problem was IU’s quarterback play got worse as the opponents got tougher. For example against a solid defensive team and eventual bowl winner Rutgers, the IU passing attack did nothing to elevate things. And that’s what IU needs: some part of the offense to cling to. A constant, reliable…something, anything.

The Hoosiers have some options to make this happen. Despite not announcing a starter, it is pretty clear that this is a two-man race. Tayven Jackson played a reserve role last year but was a spot starter. The redshirt sophomore’s numbers weren’t great but he is young and was a highly touted prospect when he originally went to Tennessee. The other candidate is Kurtis Rourke. That name should be familiar to football fanatics – he has been tearing apart the MAC with the Ohio Bobcats the last two seasons. As a junior he had over 3,000 passing yards and 25 TDs. His senior year numbers didn’t live up to that but it was still a strong season. He is also frisky with his feet. Rounding out the QB room is redshirt junior Roman Purcell and incoming freshmen Tyler Cherry and Alberto Mendoza. Cherry is a top-25 quarterback prospect and Mendoza is a top 90 kid. If I had to guess, Rourke will be the primary quarterback based on Jackson’s erratic play last year and the fact that he is more dynamic in the running game but it is nice to have options.

Like most teams that went 3-9 there were issues at the skill position set, too. As a team they produced 1,400 rushing yards and 13 TDs but no one stayed healthy enough to have an individually impressive season. Essentially no one is back from last year after graduation and transfers. Clearly knowing this, IU hit the transfer portal…hard. Kaelon Black, Ty Son Lawton, and Solomon Vanhorse all come in from James Madison. Black had a monster year for the Dukes and racked up a ton of all-purpose yardage as a receiver and returner as well. Lawton rushed well as Black’s backup and Vanhorse hopes to get back in the fold after back-to-back injury plagued seasons. Still not enough options, Wake grad transfer Justice Ellison and UNC transfer Elijah Green came in. Lastly top-100 freshman recruit Khobie Martin was signed. Safe to say Black has the best chance for meaningful time. He was already outstanding last year for Cignetti but obviously he can’t do it alone. It is all about who becomes the reliable second and third option on this team and who can plug in if any injuries hit.

Wideout and Tight End has plenty of familiar faces for IU fans. Leading receiver from last year, Donaven McCulley is back after getting honorable mention by the coaches last year. Listed at 6’5″ he is the tallest receiver in the room and can go up and win a lot of jump balls for whoever is the quarterback. E.J. Williams Jr is also a tall wideout at 6’4.” After transferring from Clemson he made his mark last year as one of the top targets in the old system. Omar Cooper Jr is also back as a nice reserve for the Hoosiers. Joining these players are some potentially impact transfers. Myles Price is a grad transfer from Texas Tech with 25 starts and a boatload of all-purpose yardage, Ke’Shawn Williams is a grad transfer from Wake with over 40 appearances, 11 starts and his own boatload of APY, Elijah Sarratt comes in from JMU and presumably already knows what Cignetti is looking for, and finally Myles Cross comes from Ohio with his quarterback, Rourke. McCulley is a no-brainer to crack this depth chart and both Price and Williams have really impressive portfolios but I wouldn’t count out the connection Rourke and Cross already have. I think Indiana can get more juice out of their passing game with this mix of quarterback experience, receiver talent, and the deep RB room.

As for tight end, here again the Hoosiers have some pieces. Returning leading TE Trey Walker is back as is James Bomba – a third generation Hoosier. JMU transfer Zach Horton will also be a big factor after an all-Sun Belt season last year. He enters this season on the Mackey watch list. There are obviously deeper TE rooms in this league but I like the experience this one has. I don’t see any of these guys feeling out of place once pads start crashing.

Of course none of these offensive imporvements can happen if there are no holes or no pass protection. The line last year didn’t cut it. With 25 sacks allowed this was definetely an area of imporvement for the new staff. Two former James Madison players joined their coach, Nick Kidwell and Tyler Stephens. Unfortunately Kidwell is out for the year with an injury so that is one key cog in this unit gone. Wisconsin grad transfer Trey Wedig may not have the most starts of a grad transfer but he does have plenty of experience. Wedig and Stephens will be in the mix with returning starters Mike Katic (moving to center) and Carter Smith. Bray Lynch also has reserve experience. And that is the key word…experience. This is not one of the most talented lines in the league but they do have lot’s of experience. If they can mesh and stay healthy beyond Kidwell’s poor luck this line has the ability to surpass last year’s output.

On the flip side of the offensive line we see, well, more of the same for the DL – transfers galore with a heavy dose of guys coming in from James Madison. Starting with the returning pieces, Jacob Mangum-Farrar started all 12 games last year, Lanell Carr Jr started 10 games last year, and Marcus Burris Jr started 8 games last year. While none of them have jaw-dropping stats, they all have tons of experience and at the very least, provide depth for this group. As for the newbies Mikail Kamara and James Carpenter are the big names. Kamara had 52 tackles with 17.5 of them for less en route to a second-team all SBC appearance and Carpenter racked up 53 T, 9.0 TFL, and 4 sacks while also being named second-team. CJ West was third-team all-MAC at Ohio and Tyrique Tucker started five games last year with James Madison. Assuming Kamara and Carpenter’s talents transfer up a level from the SBC to the Big Ten, this defensive line could shake out to be one of the better units in the league.

Much less certain than the front line is the linebacking group. Jailin Walker was honrable mention all-SBC last year and Aiden Fisher was third-team SBC last year. He is a nice pass-coverage linebacker. Honestly, those two JMU transfers are about it. Joshua Rudolph saw action in 12 games last year with Indiana and started 11 games at Austin Peay. Nahji Logan transfers in after a nice career at UMass. Kaiden Turner made some appearnces last year for IU as well. One of those three has to step up. Logan is a sure tackler so it might be him, but there are not guarntees. Beyond the guys I mentioned, all of it is either untested freshman or guys with limited playing time. As one of the thinist LB groups in the league, this position could be a major source of trouble if Indiana’s season goes of the rails.

The secondary is a unique blend of returnees who were either oft-injured starters or reserve players. This group is then infused with several transfers, many from Old Dominion of all places, but then has some promising four-star freshmen coming in. Starting with the players Hoosier fans will remember, Jamari Sharpe and Nic Toomer got the most action. Sharpe got in all 12 games and started 9 of them. Toomer had 8 apperances and 7 starts. Toomer’s stats were a pinch better with 26 total tackles, 3 pass breakups, 1 INT, and 1 Sack. If you are generous and double his stats for him playing more of a full season then that isn’t a bad stat line. Sharpe held his own as a redshirt freshman last year despite not putting up major numbers. Next of the returnee quasi-starters is Josh Sanguinetti who appeared in all 12, starting four. Sanguinetti made the most of his time though with two INTs and two fumble recoveries. For the returning reserves there are three: Bryson Bonds, Jamier Johnson, and Tyler McDaniel. McDaniel is one of those ODU transfers, coming over last season. Bonds is a special teams standout. For the transfers the most exprienced is Terry Jones Jr. with a whopping 26 starts in 40 games. He was an honorable mention Sun Belt pefromer with ODU a year ago. Next is Shawn Asbury II with 15 starts in 30 games. He was also an honorable mention Sun Belt player with the Monarchs last year. Cadarious Doss has 15 starts in 23 games with Austin Peay and was an FCS All American a year ago. Speaking of All-Americans, D’Angelo Ponds was a freshman team player last year with James Madison finishing with 15 defended passes, 11th best nationally. Grad transfer DJ Warnell Jr. only has two starts but has appeared in 40 games between UCLA and Arizona. Finally there are the two four-stars, Jah Jah Boyd and Josh Philostin, both ranked that highly by ESPN. There’s a lot of pieces to play with for the new staff but I’m guessing Toomer has one of the safety spots locked up and Ponds’ talent is impressive. Doss also stands a good shot at getting into the rotation after such a strong career with the Governors, but realistically, all these guys will get some game time as injuries and match ups dictate things for the Hoosiers. My big worry is there are several key players from ODU’s secondary on the Hoosiers now but they were only 111th in pass defense last year so what exactly is IU getting?

Kicking was a bit of an adventure last year as Chris Freeman was reliable short range but missed 4 of 10 kicks from 30 yards or beyond. He is off to UConn so kicking duties are up for grabs. Redshirt Freshman Nicholas Radicic kicked in the Indiana State game last year before redshirting. ULM transfer Derek McCormick had a strong season last year but his career numbers (25/41 on field goals) isn’t great. Punting will be a strength. Returning senior James Evans was third-team Big Ten last year and is one of the best punters in IU’s program history.

There is a lot to like about Indiana this year. QB feels improved, RB is deep, the reciever room has some nice pieces, TE is steady if unremarkable but there are some big issues to sort out in year one of this rebuild. The OL has experience but it is mostly at other programs, can they gel together? It also isn’t the deepest unit. The DL is the single best unit on this defense in my estimation but again, a lot of new faces. The LB group is a worry for me and the secondary needs some folks to step up. In all, Indiana should be more cempetitive that last year’s 3-9 outfit, but I’m not sure that will turn into a lot more wins. Let’s take a look at the schedule!

2023 Schedule:

Florida International:

  • Best Case: FIU is in year three of a long rebuild coming off back-to-back 4-8 seasons under Mike MacIntyre. Hoosier rebuild is a pinch easier with getting so many talented pieces from James Madison. 1-0
  • Worst Case: FIU is in the third year of their building process. 1-0
  • Prediction: The issues Indiana has – OL depth, LB depth, Secondary talent – won’t manifest itself early in the season or against a team like FIU. W, 31-21, 1-0 (0-0)

Western Illinois:

  • BC: The Leathernecks went 0-11 last year in the FCS. 2-0
  • WC: This sort of feel like a game IU schedules to guantee at least one win. 1-1
  • P: Sorry Western, you were one of the worst teams – FCS or otherwise – in the entire nation last year. W, 49-7, 2-0 (0-0)

At UCLA:

  • BC: Bruins have a brand new coach with exactly…zero head coaching experience! Edge to the Hoosiers there. 3-0
  • WC: UCLA did make a bowl last year and roughed up Stanford, Colorado, and USC. IU last year was on the same level as the Cardinal and Buffs. 1-2
  • P: This one is honestly a tough one to pick. UCLA is rebuilding just as much as Indiana is but the Hoosiers have an advantage in coaching but UCLA is enjoying the home atmosphere – or as much as you can say that about the empty Rose Bowl. Often when a game feels like a coin flip, I go with the home squad. L, 28-17, 2-1 (0-1)

Charlotte:

  • BC: The 49ers showed a little improvement last year, but still went just 3-9 overall. 4-0
  • WC: I mean, Indiana needed 4 OTs to beat Akron last year, I suppose anything is possible as you rebuild. 1-3
  • P: This is an over simpolification but James Madison was better than Charlotte a year ago and seemingly half IU’s roster are former JMU players. W, 31-10, 3-1 (0-1)

Maryland:

  • BC: Maryland’s quarterback situation is one of the biggest unknowns in the league. At least IU has that going for them. 5-0
  • WC: UM did win this game 44-17 a year ago so it’s not like IU was on the wrong end of a nailbiter. 1-4
  • P: I genuenly have zero clue what Maryland’s quarterback play will be like. The most experienced guy is transfer MJ Morris from NC State but he did not impress me with his limited play later year with the Wolfpack. With such a glaring issue for the Terps this feels like a toss-up and when that happens, I ride with the home team. W, 27-24, 4-1 (1-1)

At Northwestern:

  • BC: After winning eight games a year ago, NU has completely come back to earth and struggling. Meanwhile literally everything has gone right for the normally hapless Hoosiers. 6-0
  • WC: Yeah, Cats won those games for a reason a season ago. 1-5
  • P: NU went to and won a bowl without spectacular QB play. Mississippi State transfer Mike Wright looks to improve the ‘Cats prospects at that position. Behind him the highly experienced Ryan Hilinski is also still around. I don’t love this QB room but again, Northwestern proved they could win with just enough quarterback play. L, 21-14, 4-2 (1-2)

Nebraska:

  • BC: Nebraska only went 5-7 a year ago. The magic continues! 7-0
  • WC: While the rebuild has made IU more competitive, they can’t get over the hump. 1-6
  • P: Stop if you’ve heard this before but NU lost four games by three points and had an additional OT loss. They were already close to returning to a bowl and their rebuild is ahead of IU’s. L, 28-14, 4-3 (1-3)

Washington:

  • BC: New coach, new QB, new everything – hey look, that describes both teams. These magical Hoosiers are now climbing up the AP rankings! 8-0
  • WC: New UW quarterback Will Rogers knows how to throw it…a lot…can IU stop it? 1-7
  • P: And here we get to the first real match-up issue for IU. Despite all of UW’s new faces, they have a proven record at quarterback. I’m not sure Indiana’s rebuilt secondary is up for this task. L, 28-14, 4-4 (1-4)

At Michigan State:

  • BC: Speaking of a new coach, new QB, new everything – we get to Sparty! They famously had to jerk Mel Tucker out of the building (pun obviously intended). Ninewindiana in year one?! 9-0
  • WC: Jonathan Smith’s track record at Oregon State is admittedly short…but also pretty impressive for what he did. 1-8
  • P: MSU was a walking disaster last year and still knocked off IU, albeit by just 3 points. So I guess it comes down to is IU three points better than last year, MSU three points worse than last year, or are they about the same? I know IU is a pinch better because of the steady hand of Rourke, a proven coach in Cignetti, and that loaded running back room. I’m not sure I’m there yet on MSU. Huge road win. W, 31-21, 5-4 (2-4)

Michigan:

  • BC: It was a hell of a fun start to the year, wasn’t it? 9-1
  • WC: Done by halftime. 1-9
  • P: Obviously Michigan has a ton of new pieces to put into place but with Harbaugh always having a step towards the door, a transition was always in place and recruits / transfers would not have been caught unaware. With that in mind, getting Michigan in the first few weeks seems much more likely for an upset than the last few weeks. L, 31-7, 5-5 (2-5)

At Ohio State:

  • BC: Coming back to earth a little bit more in this one. 9-2
  • WC: Done by halftime part two. 1-10
  • P: Buckeyes are just at a different place as a program right now (and kind of for all of history) compared to IU. L, 35-7, 5-6 (2-6)

Purdue:

  • BC: Purdue only won this game by four a year ago. Ten wins, are you kidding me? First time in program history. 10-2
  • WC: Embarrassed by the rival in year one. 1-11
  • P: Houston Card had a nice season last year and with a year ahead in the rebuild, I think Walters has Purdue just a touch out ahead of their rival right now. L, 31-28, 5-7 (2-7)

I truly believe IU has the right coach for their program and there is some real talent on this roster to make some waves in year one. The schedule also has some advantages with three new coach / QB combos, three highly winnable non-conference games, and a big massive mystery in that Maryland team. It wouldn’t surprise me to see IU flip a game or two to sneak into a bowl. Of course it also wouldn’t surprise me to see them flip a game or two to have another nine-loss season, either. Even if the final record isn’t much better than last year, Indiana isn’t a hopeless Chris Ash-era Rutgers team. However, penciling them into a bowl year one also was a tad too far for me, especially in light of their depth issues and defensive secondary not feeling up to the task right now in August. Give the rebuild a year or two before we start jotting down bowl trips.

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