Yet another western preview? Thankfully it is the last one – the defending division champs, Purdue. If you want to check out Northwestern, Rutgers, Indiana, Nebraska, MSU, Maryland, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, or Illinois – click on any of those links.
After slowly – but steadily – improving under Jeff Brohm, the Boilermakers went 9-4 (6-3) in 2021 and felt like a true contender in 2022 for the divisional crown. A four point loss to Penn State on opening day followed by a 3 point loss two weeks later at Syracuse dropped Purdue to 1-2 (0-1) with both losses coming against power-five outfits. But Purdue rallied and ripped off four straight wins, including a head-to-head win against fellow western contender Minnesota. Sitting at 5-2 (3-1), Purdue felt like they were in the thick of the race again. But then they lost to Wisconsin and Iowa – a nightmare scenario – for the divisional race. A 5-4 (3-2) record made it feel like Purdue’s race was already done. But just as they had earlier in the season, they rallied. A three game winning streak – including taking down Illinois – got Purdue to six league wins. No other western team could hit that mark so despite losing to those Badgers and Hawkeyes, it was the upstart Boilermakers who would head off to the title game.
Unfortunately for Purdue fans, this is where the train started to derail. First standout QB Aidan O’Connell’s brother passed away, putting his preparation for Michigan understandably into chaos. In fact, there was a chance he might even miss the game. Predictably, the overmatched Boilermakers were roughed up by Michigan. That was probably going to be the outcome anyway, but not having O’Connell completely there all but guaranteed the blowout. Then the team left before the bowl – literally. Brohm left for his alma mater Louisville to coach, and tons of the best players, O’Connell included, sat out the bowl to prepare for the NFL. LSU was the better team even before Purdue became a pick-up team and the Tigers smoked Purdue, 63-7. With a new coach and a lot of new faces, the odds of Purdue matching last year’s divisional title feel incredibly long. A more realistic question is, can they make a third straight bowl game and not slide all the way back to the – SHUTTERS – Darrell Hazel era?
The first man up in any preventing any slide is standout running back Devin Mockobee. He came from nowhere – seriously, he was a walk-on – to explode for nearly a thousand yards and 9 touchdowns. Former coach Brohm called Mockobee “crazy legs” to describe his unique running style. His ability to cut and break tackles makes him a pain to play against. Adding to RB depth is a position change for Tyrone Trace Jr. The Iowa transfer was originally coming on as a wideout but didn’t make much of an impact in that position last year. He is a speedster so look for him to be an impact runner on the edges rather than up the gut.
The man who will be handing Mockobee the ball will be Texas transfer Hudson Card. Card had a strange career with the Longhorns. Back in 2021 he appeared in seven games (attempted passes in six of those) and outside his excellent 5 TDs to 1 INT, his numbers were…fine. Last year he appeared in six games and had several starts after Quinn Ewers got hurt. His completion percentage was excellent at almost 70% and he had 6 TDs to just 1 INT but he wasn’t good enough to hang onto the job once Ewers came back. With all the weapons UT had and coach Sark’s ability to make every quarterback look good I’d say his transfer is of note, but I’m not blown away thinking that Card is going to become some Drew Brees level impact player, ripping off 300+ yard games every week in the Big Ten. Think of it this way, if Card put up those numbers because he was an amazing quarterback, why was he benched when Ewers came back? It’s obvious he put up those numbers because of the system at Texas.
Now, what Purdue is hoping is that their system puts Card in a position similar to the one with UT. New offensive coordinator Graham Herrell guided WVU to a solid balanced attack at just over 30 points per game. The Boilers also have two solid wideouts back in TJ Sheffield and Mershawn Rice to help Card and Harell out. Up front there is some hope that the OL can guide this running game to glory with three starters back, including impact tackle Mahamane Moussa.
The problem for Purdue isn’t the offense – well it shouldn’t be, unless Card struggles or gets hurt – but it is found on the defensive side of the ball. Now Brohm and defense were never really a thing at Purdue. Back in 2018-2020 Purdue gave up about 30 points per game for the season, with two of those years being in the mid 80s nationally. But in 2021 they had a new DC, Mark Hagen. The defense got better (22.4 ppg, 34th). Last year it slid back to 27.4 and 74th – both marks better than the majority of Brohm’s time with the Boilers but also not spectacular. Hagen is gone now, joining Brohm in Louisville, but I sort of have an incredibly strong feeling that PU’s offense helped hide some blemishes because there were a lot of games where Purdue’s D was a non factor…or outright cost them the game. Breaking down PU’s defense last year it didn’t look very well coached OR particularly talented. Case-in-point, the absolute meltdown against Syracuse. Now in 2023 Purdue has lackluster talent AND changing schemes. Coach Walters oversaw an amazing defense at Illinois but I don’t think he can replicate that in year one with the Boilers.
Purdue’s best defensive group looks to be at LB, which is good, since they are switching to a 3-4. What won’t be good is the pass defense though. Their best player is now in the NFL. The three starters that are back, helped guide Purdue’s passing defense to not being all that good. I think there is a real chance Purdue ends up with a defense near the bottom of the league, possibly even dead last. The best Boiler defender back is Kydran Jenkins and he is of note because he had…four sacks last year? Yeah he was Honorable Mention All Big Ten but I think a big part of that was because PU made the title game. If they had gone 6-6 would he have been honorable mention? I’m not sure.
The special teams is exciting with returner Deion Burkes but kicking loses a key player. Mitchell Fineran was a very reliable kicker during his five years at Purdue. Replacing him won’t be easy.
2023 Schedule:
Fresno State:
- Best Case: Bulldogs have a new QB as well…if they aren’t in sync, Boilers get it done. 1-0
- Worst Case: Uhh, it is Jeff Tedford, I think they’ll be alright offensively. 0-1
- Prediction: Tough, tough spot here for Purdue. One of the most experienced coaches nationally versus a guy making his debut. I don’t think Purdue has the defense to win. L, 31-21, 0-1 (0-0)
At Virginia Tech:
- BC: Hokies were a disaster last year. Their offense couldn’t do a single thing of note and Brent Pry’s debut season was a nightmare. 2-0
- WC: Enter Sandman scares the Boilers and they blow it. 0-2
- P: I think Purdue will have a long season…but I think Virginia Tech was one of the absolutely worst coached teams in America last year. Based on first impressions, I don’t trust Pry at all. Purdue steals this game. W, 35-31, 1-1 (0-0)
Syracuse:
- BC: It’s a home game versus Syracuse. Would anyone be surprised if Purdue won it? 3-0
- WC: Dino Baber’s offense versus Purdue…we saw how that worked last year. 0-3
- P: Syracuse is a smidgeon better…but Purdue is the home team, feel very toss-upy to me. I’ll be a league homer and take the Big Ten squad. W, 28-24, 2-1 (0-0)
Wisconsin:
- BC: Something is just off about the Badger offense as they break in new faces and a new scheme. Meanwhile PU’s new look defense is really paying off. 4-0
- WC: Exact opposite and UW is up big at halftime. 0-4
- P: On paper UW is better at each and every position group. They roll into town and take the victory. L, 28-14, 2-2 (0-1)
Illinois:
- BC: New QB has UI struggling to move the ball well. Purdue quietly marches up the rankings, entering the top 20. 5-0
- WC: Both teams have a lot of new faces but Illinois’s new players just look more talented. 0-5
- P: Tough for the protegee to beat the master, especially when that team has the OL to blow Purdue off the ball. L, 28-17, 2-3 (0-2)
At Iowa:
- BC: Iowa has lost to Purdue in some completely weird ways under Ferentz. Maybe this year will be the same. 6-0
- WC: Or Iowa is on their way to winning the division. 0-6
- P: Iowa is a way more complete roster at the moment. No reason to pick the upset this far out from the game being played. L, 28-10, 2-4 (0-3)
Ohio State:
- BC: Purdue has stunned the Bucks in West Lafayette before. Who the hell knows, maybe they do it yet again. 7-0
- WC: Or their defense struggles against OSU’s offense. 0-7
- P: Barring just an epic collapse of OSU this year, I honestly don’t see a path for victory for the Boilermakers. OSU has the talent edge seemingly everywhere. L, 49-13, 2-5 (0-4)
At Nebraska:
- BC: Let’s just say the Jeff Sims era didn’t get off to a good start in Minneapolis. 8-0
- WC: Injuries start to creep in. The QB isn’t working and the defense continues to stall. 0-8
- P: Admittedly a terrible reason, but, I don’t think any Big Ten team goes oh-for and because I think NU’s quarterback play will be, um, shoddy, this year…I’ll take the Boilermakers at home in this one. W, 28-24, 3-5 (1-4)
At Michigan:
- BC: Even in a dream season…I’m taking the Wolverines. Their strength along the lines should overwhelm Purdue, just like in the title game. 8-1
- WC: Blowout city. 0-9
- P: Yeah, pretty long odds for PU in this one. L, 45-7, 3-6 (1-5)
Minnesota:
- BC: Gophers are having a nightmare season as injuries and poor QB play doom them to a last place finish. 9-1
- WC: Gopher O gets going against the poor Purdue D. 0-10
- P: There just isn’t much I trust about this Purdue team so I’ll take the Gophers – warts and all – to win this on the road. L, 31-17, 3-7 (1-6)
At Northwestern:
- BC: Despite so much roster turnover and new coaches, Purdue takes care of the division’s worst team to win back-to-back western crowns. 10-1
- WC: It is Northwestern who has come from nowhere to contend for the division. 0-11
- P: So…yeah…I don’t think any team is so awful that they go winless in the Big Ten, so I had to give the Wildcats a win, somewhere. Sorry Purdue. L, 24-21, 3-8 (1-7)
Indiana:
- BC: Off to the title game, IU fires their whole staff, and Purdue gets what they really want – a March Madness Final Four. 11-1
- WC: Indiana is good, Purdue isn’t, and IU goes to the Final Four. 0-12
- P: A million apologies, Purdue. I needed to give IU a win somewhere to avoid the oh-for. L, 28-17, 3-9 (1-8)
Wrap Up:
So…yeah…not a great outlook for Purdue. A few things to note, I tossed in some predicted losses – Northwestern and Indiana – to give each of those teams a league win. Purdue is definitely better than NU and should be better than Indiana. Their offense is also potent enough to keep them in some battles like Fresno, Illinois, even offensively challenged Iowa. Purdue needs a lot to go right to sniff a second straight divisional title but only needs to flip a few of these narrow games to go bowling. Even though I’m not predicting it, I wouldn’t be floored if PU did scratch out a bowl game thanks to that offense. The defense though, woof. They’re a big work in progress.
Big Ten and Counting 