Well thanks to the complete log jam that was the West in 2022, we are finally back to a team from the East! If want to backtrack on any of the previews follow these links: Northwestern, Rutgers, Indiana, Nebraska, MSU, Maryland, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, and Purdue.
Back in the pre-Covid era, Penn State was living a strange life. Not quite good enough to win the division but good enough to win a ton of games. As a result they finished second in the East in 2019 and 2017. Of course the one year everything did click recently and the won the Big Ten, 2016, they had two regular season losses meaning they were on the outside looking in for any national title hopes. But then something goofy happened in 2020, and it wasn’t just COVID. Penn State imploded, starting the season 0-5. They won their final four to go 4-5 but it wasn’t pretty. No matter we all thought, COVID year, PSU will be fine…but they weren’t. In 2021 they started the year 5-0 but injuries at Iowa bled over to a stunning triple OT loss to Illinois followed by a loss to Ohio State. The team went just 7-6 (4-5). Something was seriously wrong in Happy Valley.
With expectations for 2022 not being as high, Penn State started the year unranked but ripped off five-straight to rise all the way to 11th. We didn’t know it at the time but those five teams were mostly duds: Purdue (Big Ten West Champs), Ohio (MAC East Champs), Auburn (fired their coach), Central Michigan (4-8), and Northwestern (1-11). PSU wouldn’t live up to that lofty ranking in week five: they got demolished by Michigan, 41-17. Two weeks later OSU also took Penn State down, 44-31. With those two losses, PSU was out of the league race. They would end up winning out and took down a banged-up Utah team in the Rose Bowl for a nice consolation to the season…but many still wonder where is this PSU team? Are they at the OSU/UM level or in this twilight zone of being good, but not good enough.
2022 would indicate they are still a major notch below Michigan and still behind OSU but that only tell part of the story. Their schedule unfolded so advantageously last year. They only played three ranked teams all year. With that schedule, they should have won a ton of games. In their real tests they went just 1-2 and the lone win was unfortunately marred by Utah losing its quarterback. So is Penn State back to pre-COVID level? Quite honestly, we don’t know. The talent is certainly intriguing, but that has been true every year. The problem is PSU doesn’t feel as deep as UM/OSU so when they get banged up (ex. 2021) it is harder for them to cope. The other problem is they have struggled recently to generate a consistent running attack, placing a lot more pressure on the passing game to produce. There is a lot to love about the 2023 Nittany Lions, but the proof will be in the pudding, especially October 21st when they head off to the Shoe for their first of those giant Eastern division showdowns.
The push for PSU to contend comes from a youth movement that started last year plus a highly touted quarterback. With 14 starters back, Coach Franklin and his staff have to feel this club can go toe-to-toe with anybody’s two-deep. That young pup QB though is what has fans really excited. Drew Allar was the second best QB recruit in the class of 2022 and was 51st in ESPN’s top 300. Despite the hype, Franklin had him sit and learn last year. All told he got experience in ten games last season with his most action coming against Michigan and Indiana. If he lives up to his lofty recruiting rank potential, PSU will have one of the league’s best quarterbacks.
The ground game was dreadful in 2020 and 2021 but showed vast improvement last year with the freshman duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen combining for nearly 2,000 yards. With both back, Penn State feels pretty confident that their running bugaboo of a few years ago is over for good. The OL should also key this running attack as it is one of the deepest in the league. Five guys who started at least five games are back this year with LT Olumuyiwa Fashanu leading the way. Fashanu has first-round draft talent and surprised many when he opted to return for 2023.
The biggest issue for PSU’s offense this year is who Allar will pass to. That depth issue I mentioned earlier really manifested itself in the receiver corps – so much so that Franklin made a switch in his position coach and brought aboard several transfers to breathe some new life into the group. Now, it’s not that PSU was bad at this group – they just sent a ton of dudes off to the NFL – but the problem was their top two guys were basically it. The third leading receiver, KeAndre Lambert-Smith is really talented but only had 24 catches last year. Between the play-calling and / or QB Sean Clifford’s style of play PSU just trusted a few players and struggled to get anyone else really going last year.
With Lambert-Smith back and solid Tight Ends in Theo Johnson and Tyler Warren, there is a foundation to build upon. Harrison Wallace III and Liam Clifford both got some run last year as freshman so maybe one or both of them pop. The two big transfer additions were Dante Cephus and Malik McClain. Cephus had almost 2,000 yards combined over 2021-2022 at Kent State while McClain saw very limited action at Florida State. McClain is listed at 6’4″ so he should tower over any corner he goes against. I could also see him being used for some jump balls, especially in the red zone.
Defensively, PSU hopes to be elite yet again. Last year they were 10th in scoring, giving up just 18.2 points per game. After driving some fans irate at both Texas and Miami, DC Manny Diaz really settled into this PSU chapter quite quickly last year. Now with a full season under his belt and this off-season, the Nittany Lion defense could very well be the best in the league.
Things get cooking on defense with Diaz’s pressure packages, trying to force the opponent into making boneheaded plays in the passing game. With this system, OLB Abdul Carter burst onto the scene last year as a true freshman. He had 10.5 TFLs and a team-high 6.5 sacks. Fellow OLB Curtis Jacobs would’ve been drafted last spring but he also opted to come back for one last rodeo with his team. A major factor on why these dynamic linebackers had so much success last year was how much focus opponents had to give to the defensive line. Defensive ends Adisa Isaac and Chop Robinson also got into the quarterback bullying last year, combining for 9.5 sacks. The pair also had 21 TFLs combined. The edges of this defensive line are solid. What isn’t as solid are the folks in the middle. In an era with bigger and bigger offensive linemen, Penn State is a undersized at tackle. Several DTs were all under 275 pounds at the start of spring and the best returning starter, Hakeem Beamon, was listed at 256. Can these tackles hold up for a whole season? Can they hold up against a power rushing game? If the answer to both of these questions is no, that will obviously alter what this defense can accomplish.
The secondary is shaping up to be a strong one as well. Kalen King led the league with 21 defended passes last year. On the other side of the field is Johnny Dixon. Dixon saw increasing play two years ago as a sophomore and was made the starter last year. He was awesome in that new role. With these two stars, I think the plan for most teams will be to exploit the DT weaknesses for some runs and then be able to do the play-action to try and freeze these formidable corners.
The specialists is a bit of a mixed bag right now. Kicker Jake Pinegar graduated so his back up Sander Sahaydak could get the nod; however, Alex Felkins transferred in from Colombia to create a position battle in camp. A similar thing happened at the punter spot but the incoming transfer, Riley Thompson, was a really solid player for FAU last year so I expect him to seize the job. My guess is we rarely talk about PSU special teams – unlike the good (Iowa) or the bad (Nebraska) which is talked about a lot. So expect PSU to remain rather anonymous in special teams…which means they are fine; nothing spectacular, but not blowing games either.
2023 Schedule:
West Virginia:
- Best Case: Yeah…Neal Brown is most likely in his final season. Blowout city. 1-0
- Worst Case: There’s a chance WVU is the worst team in the Big 12; I don’t see how PSU loses this one at home even if PSU’s season turns out to be a nightmare. 1-0
- Prediction: Even if it takes a few series – or even a game or two – for the O to get fully in sync, the defense should be stout from the first snap. They’ll lock WVU down for sure. W, 38-7, 1-0 (0-0)
Delaware:
- BC: Over by half, rest the starters, no injuries. 2-0
- WC: Surprisingly tight, starters have to play the whole game, a key injury. 2-0
- P: A lot to a little. W, 56-7, 2-0 (0-0)
At Illinois:
- BC: Too many key contributors from UI’s awesome 2022 defense are no longer with the program. PSU rolls. 3-0
- WC: UI’s D actually reloads and they find a way to make Allar’s life miserable. 2-1
- P: I don’t think the Illini have the offensive chops to really hang in this one. D plays well enough to prevent Penn State from running away with it, but the game isn’t particularly close, either. W, 24-10, 3-0 (1-0)
Iowa:
- BC: Brian Ferentz is still calling plays. 4-0
- WC: Iowa’s nasty D makes the young Allar look like a 2-star kid, not a 5-star kid. 2-2
- P: The Iowa D will keep this thing close, but Penn State pulls away in the fourth quarter. W, 24-10, 4-0 (2-0)
At Northwestern:
- BC: PSU steamrolls everybody’s pick to finish dead last in the league. 5-0
- WC: Difficult to envision a scenario in which NU pulls off this upset. 3-2
- P: Way too much talent for the road team. They’ll cruise. W, 35-10, 5-0 (3-0)
Massachusetts:
- BC: What is PSU doing? A weak non-con game before a massive test? This is what the SEC does, am I right? 6-0
- WC: UMass keeps it close for a half? I don’t know. 4-2
- P: A lot to a little, part two. W, 49-10, 6-0 (3-0)
At Ohio State:
- BC: OSU thinks they have their next great quarterback on roster…but what if they don’t? 7-0
- WC: With the passing game not clicking well enough, PSU just can’t keep up in a shootout. 4-3
- P: There is a lot to like about Penn State and if this was a white out in Happy Valley, I think I’d take the Lions…but it isn’t. It is in the dreaded Horseshoe. L, 28-24, 6-1 (3-1)
Indiana:
- BC: The hapless Hoosiers are down by 35 at halftime. 8-0
- WC: Hoosiers are surprisingly scrappy this year and hang around, but PSU prevails. 5-3
- P: The defense shines and the offense is humming along efficiently. W, 31-10, 7-1 (4-1)
At Maryland:
- BC: Penn State shuts out the Terps…again. 9-0
- WC: Riding that nasty D, PSU gets to bowl eligibility with a big road win. 6-3
- P: I think Maryland is a good team, just a notch below the three-headed monster that is PSU, OSU, and Michigan. W, 28-14, 8-1 (5-1)
Michigan:
- BC: Down goes the Wolverines! PSU is just eight quarters away from the title game and the playoffs – they are also up to #1 in the nation. 10-0
- WC: Good team…but not quite good enough. 6-4
- P: Michigan’s bread and butter is a physically imposing OL, keying a strong running game. That is where PSU is, on paper at least, weakest on the DL. L, 24-17, 8-2 (5-2)
Rutgers:
- BC: Division is locked in, just one road trip away from immortality. 11-0
- WC: RU hangs around for a few quarters, but PSU still wins. 7-4
- P: Wisconsin ALWAYS beats Purdue. Penn State ALWAYS beats Rutgers. This is the way of the Big Ten. W, 38-10, 9-2 (6-2)
At Michigan State:
- BC: MSU’s pass defense remains, uh, awful. Title bound…CFP bound. 12-0
- WC: MSU recaptures that KWIII magic and is having a dream season. 7-5
- P: Coaching and talent favorers the road team in this one. PSU rolls. W, 35-24, 10-2 (7-2)
Wrap Up:
Obviously I think highly of PSU – I have them winning 10 games as my prediction, going bowling in a nightmare season, and making the playoffs if it all breaks right. The reservation I have with PSU is what will that DL look like against physically-imposing teams and will the receiver corps come together? Obviously the potential is there and if Allar is the real deal like we all think he will be, PSU is going to be a damn good team for the next several years…which is a good thing for them as the league goes division-less next year and PSU will now be in even crazier recruiting battles with Oregon, USC, and Washington.
Big Ten and Counting 