Well despite this being an entire Big Ten blog, we will stay in the west for about the 80th preview in a row – this time we travel to Champaign-Urbana to check in on our Fighting Illini friends. If you missed any part of the series, feel free to click the links to check out Northwestern, Rutgers, Indiana, Nebraska, MSU, Maryland, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa.
The Illini showed massive improvement in Bret Bielema’s debut season in 2021. Yes, they were just 5-7 overall but four of those losses were by a lone score. Illinois had the feel of a club that could compete for a bowl in 2022 and they didn’t disappoint. Riding their incredible tailback Chase Brown, an outstanding defense, and the steady hand of veteran QB Tommy DeVito, Illinois stormed out to a 7-1 start in 2022. Among their wins in this hot stretch was Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota – all contenders for the western crown. Unfortunately the hot start didn’t continue through the final month of the year. Illinois lost three straight (Michigan State, Purdue, and Michigan) to let the division slip away. They routed Northwestern in the finale but then dropped their bowl to Mississippi State in what would prove to be Mike Leach’s final game.
So what was last year? Disappointing because they only went 8-5? Encouraging because they contended for the west? Well this is a cop out but it is kind of both. Encouraging because of those wins over the Hawks, Badgers, and Gophers but the club had to endure all their league losses by a lone score. Indiana was a 3 point game. MSU was the blowout at 8 points. Purdue slipped past by just 7. Michigan narrowly escaped by 2. Flip that Michigan game alone and how we feel about Illinois’s 2022 changes considerably.
Still, eight wins is the most for Illinois since Ron Zook guided them to nine wins way back in 2007. As a result, last year does feel like a breakthrough year. Certainly not to the degree of Minnesota’s 11 wins a few years ago or Purdue winning the division last year, but a breakthrough nonetheless. The problem is Illinois has a fair amount to replace so continuing last year’s momentum won’t be easy.
Starting with the first position that will be new: quarterback. Illinois announced Ole Miss transfer Luke Altmyer as their week one starter. Rivals had him as a four-start kid back in 2021 but he got just mop up duty with the Rebels. He has upside but very minimal experience. On the other hand, Ball State transfer John Paddock started every game last year and is a senior but he had a sub 60% completion rate and 14 picks last year to go along with 18 TDs. What made Illinois’s offense sturdy last year was DeVito hitting on nearly 70% of his passes and tossing just four picks. Redshirt freshman Donovan Leary (three star) could also get a crack if Altmyer or Paddock aren’t efficient enough. While the QB position could pan out, before a single second of football has been played it feels like any of these three is a step down from DeVito.
Running back will also look a lot different for Illinois. Chase Brown was outstanding last year with over 1,600 rushing yards and ten touchdowns. Brown’s backups, Reggie Love III and Josh McCray, will be tasked with recreating Brown’s impact however they can. McCray was pretty good in 2021 but was injured most of last year. Love III also played well in his limited role but even if you add up their numbers from last year and McCray’s 2021 you get 183 carries for 879 yards and 4 TDs. Those are basically Brown’s 2022 cut in half. Not saying they can’t cobble some things together or have one burst out and be a thousand yard back but, just like at QB, it feels like a step down from what the Illini had a year ago.
The good thing is the receiving corps is well situated to help out whoever takes the majority of snaps this year. Leading receivers Isaiah Williams (715 yards) and Pat Bryant (453 yards) are back as well as a steady senior in Casey Washington (306 yards) in the mix. Tight End Tip Reiman reeled in 19 passes for 174 yards but I’m expecting even more from him thanks to his size. At 6’5”, 270 he should be able to bully most linebackers that cover him.
Another bright spot for Illinois is on the OL. Obviously Bielema loves to run the rock and have big bruisers up front and his OC Barry Lunney Jr did well at implementing that last year so having three starters back is key. LG Isaiah Adams garnered third team honors for the league last year and starts this year on the Outland watch list. Adams’s left-side mate, tackle Julian Pearl was honorable mention last year and Phil Steele has him as a preseason second team member. RG Zy Crisler was also an honorable mention last year. These three have started a ton of games for Illinois and will be the foundation of a solid line. Illinois product Josh Kreutz was the 11th best center in his recruiting class. He redshirted in 2021 and played special teams last year but the staff is excited to have him joining the line as the starting center for 2023.
The Illini defense last year was the number one scoring defense in the nation – allowing just 12.8 ppg. With a lot of pieces back there is no reason for Illinois not to put up solid defensive numbers again, One of the bigger concerns is with who will be calling the plays. DC Ryan Walters is now at Purdue as the head man, but Bielema promoted from within, tapping Aaron Henry. After not being retained by Wisconsin, Bielema also added Jim Leonhard as a defensive analyst. So the coaching brain trust is there…what about the players?
Things for this defense start up front with a pair of nasty tackles. Jer’Zhan Newton was a second team All American last year and first team Big Tenner after a disastrous season…well, disastrous for the offenses trying to block him. His line-mate Keith Randolph Jr racked up Big Ten Third Team honors and is his own menace to offenses.
Behind this stout line we get a linebacking group that coach Bielema is high on…very high. He said this group ranks as one of the best he has ever worked with in his whole career. Bielema isn’t the type to blow smoke up our butts so if he says it’s so, I’m going to accept it. The LB core is anchored around Gabe Jacas who was on the Freshman All-American team. Tarique Barnes is a solid senior team captain who will look to build on a great junior season alongside Jacas. I’m also curious if four-star freshman Jojo Hayden does some damage in his first year like Jacas did.
The hardest hit part of the defense was the back end. Devon Witherspoon heading off to the NFL leaves some big shoes to fill for this group but CB Tahveon Nicholson played well opposite Witherspoon in ten starts before a season-ending injury. With him stepping into the primary coverage role, it feels more like UI is reloading, not rebuilding at corner. S Matthew Bailey was already an impact member of the secondary rotation as a freshman last year. He looks to expand his role here in 2023.
For the special teams it is a mixed bag. Kicker Caleb Griffin hit 14 of 19 field goal chances and has a cannon for a leg but Aussie punter Hugh Robertson had a steep learning curve. He ranked among the worst in the league punting, averaging under 40 yards per kick. If he improved in the offseason and Griffin holds steady, this unit should be fine, probably even win a game or two for the Illini.
2023 Schedule:
Toledo:
- Best Case: Despite winning the MAC last year, they struggled outside it, losing 77-21 to Ohio State and dropping a game to San Diego State. 1-0
- Worst Case: They return SIXTEEN starters!!! 0-1
- Prediction: Dequan Finn might be the best quarterback you haven’t heard of and with all that experience I think Toledo makes a game of it. Illinois escapes…barely. W, 24-21, 1-0 (0-0)
At Kansas:
- BC: Kansas was a nice story last year, but Illinois means business after letting the West slip out of their hands last year. 2-0
- WC: Uhh, can one of the three QB options please step up? 0-2
- P: This feels so strange to pick them after years of being downtrodden but I like Kansas’s more proven QB talent and they are at home. Weird feeling, right? L, 28-21, 1-1 (0-0)
Penn State:
- BC: With UI’s nasty defense, anything is possible. 3-0
- WC: Or UI’s offense takes a big step back and the D doesn’t matter. 0-3
- P: Illinois’s defense will keep them in every game this year, but I’m just not sold on their quarterback options before I see them in action. L, 24-10, 1-2 (0-1)
Florida Atlantic:
- BC: FAU went just 5-7 a season ago and that included a win over a FCS squad and one of the worst teams, Charlotte. They were also demolished by UCF. 4-0
- WC: This team nearly beat Purdue a year ago…but the UI defense is way, way too good. 2-2
- P: What a challenging non-conference Illinois has. All three of these teams have great shots at going bowling this year. Illinois takes care of things at home though. W, 31-14, 2-2 (0-1)
At Purdue:
- BC: Purdue has as many – if not more – new faces on their sidelines. 5-0
- WC: Illinois just cannot move the ball effectively with the downgrade from DeVito. 2-3
- P: We are enough previews in for people to see this trend: I’m not high on Purdue, like, at all. W, 28-17, 3-2 (1-1)
Nebraska:
- BC: Let’s just say the Jeff Sims era didn’t get off to a good start in Minneapolis. 6-0
- WC: Injuries start to creep in. The QB isn’t working and the new-ish secondary is also a step behind. 2-4
- P: I trust the proven philosophy of Bielema and his staff against the new admin in Lincoln. W, 28-21, 4-2 (2-1)
At Maryland:
- BC: UI’s OL dominates one of UM’s weaknesses, their DL. 7-0
- WC: One of the league’s best quarterbacks slices up Illinois’s secondary. 2-5
- P: Very close teams talent wise with very different philosophies. I’m really excited for this one but for a prediction, giving the benefit of the doubt to the team at home with the better quarterback. L, 27-24, 4-3 (2-2)
Wisconsin:
- BC: UW trots out a 3-3-5 and UI’s OL blows them off the ball and the orange crush enter the top ten. 8-0
- WC: UW lives up to all the offseason hype and is on a mission for the title game. 2-6
- P: UW also has a fantastic defense. I’m not sure the Illini can keep up. L, 28-10, 4-4 (2-3)
At Minnesota:
- BC: Minnesota’s co-OC and new RB combo is, uh, not working. 9-0
- WC: Hard to win games if you have the worst offense in the league. 2-7
- P: Total coin flip game so I’ll ride with the home team. L, 21-17, 4-5 (2-4)
Indiana:
- BC: Hoosiers are dreadful yet again and Illinois feasts. Oh, and now they are a top-five club. Pandemonium in central Illinois. 10-0
- WC: Indiana is looking like last year’s Illini and pulling off win after win. 2-8
- P: Riding the OL to victory in this one. W, 24-17, 5-5 (3-4)
At Iowa:
- BC: Illinois’s defense shuts down another putrid Iowa offense. 11-0
- WC: Iowa’s defense shuts down a putrid Illinois offense. 2-9
- P: Illinois won this one 9-6 last year in an absolutely garbage Bri-ball special. With the new talent on offense and a more mature OL, the Hawks flip the script. L, 17-6, 5-6 (3-5)
Northwestern:
- BC: Wildcats are the worst team in the league and Illinois is off to the title game with hopes of a CFB berth. 12-0
- WC: Despite a very, very long season, Illinois plays with some pride on senior day and their stout defense shuts Northwestern out just for pride. 3-9
- P: The size and strengths of the two lines lean heavily in UI’s favor. W, 27-17, 6-6 (4-5)
Wrap Up:
Obviously I have Illinois taking a tiny step back and that is purely because of how good DeVito and Brown were last year. I still have this squad making a bowl despite a tough schedule – the non-con has three teams that could make bowls and two tricky crossover games – which is a testament to just how the floor of this team has risen in the two years Bielema has been on campus. The outlook for this program is bright, even if they don’t quite match last year’s win total.
Big Ten and Counting 