Welcome football folks, I do these previews based on last year’s final Big Ten Standings and it is a testament to just how clustered the west was that we are on our third straight club from that division and still won’t be done. Astute readers – or anyone who looked at the graphic knows – we are off to my team, the Iowa Hawkeyes. If you missed any other preview, follow these handy-dandy links: Northwestern, Rutgers, Indiana, Nebraska, MSU, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.
Iowa football 2022 will be, unless things don’t improve this year, the worst offensive season I can remember. Iowa won week one 7-3 over FCS (and eventual National Champion) South Dakota State, but they had two safeties and a field goal! They followed that up with a 10-7 loss to Iowa State. After back-to-back 27 point “explosions” against Nevada and Rutgers it was back to being dismal. Lost 27-14 to Michigan, 9-6 to Illinois, and 54-10 against Ohio State. Sitting at 3-4 with, quite possibly the worst offense since the moon landing, Iowa was surely bound to fail. Well, being an Iowa fan can be a cruel mistress sometimes.
Just when all was lost, the Hawks ripped off four straight wins: Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Because three of those teams were all vying for the division along with Iowa, the Hawks were in the driver’s seat. All they had to do was win on Black Friday against Nebraska. Alas, it wasn’t to be, as ugly-offense Iowa popped up one last time. The Hawks dominated their bowl against Kentucky’s C-squad to…feel good about the year? I don’t know, at least it was nice for the departing players. A lot of last year was miserable.
Now a big, big, BIG part of the struggles come right down on Brian Ferentz’s head. He is the OC and QB coach and our play calling was baffling and our QB play was poor. But something last year was especially galling, and it wasn’t just the critiques of nepotism for Brian getting to work for his dad, but the jarring decline in points compared to previous season under Brian. When you look at Brian’s run as OC, Iowa has finished with the following points per game: 28.2 (66th nationally), 31.2 (44th), 25.8 (88th), 31.8 (40th), 23.4 (99th), and 17.7 (124rd). Now I’m not a Brian-guy or defender but nothing in his career indicated a sub-20 points per game coming. Even that peak year at 31.8 in 2020 avoids some crazy outlier like 65 points against D-2 Upper Iowa. They scored 28 or more in five of the eight games played that year.
So if it isn’t all on Brian, who else is it on? Well, last year’s offensive line was one of the absolute worst of the Ferentz era. They struggled to open running lanes consistently and were a big factor on why Iowa gave up 38 stacks on the season – nearly 3 per game. Brian used to play OL and that was his old position group to coach, but he hasn’t coached the line directly since 2016…a team by the way that boasted two thousand yard backs. Perhaps Brian should have overseen that position group more but again, nothing prior to 2022 indicated that Iowa was about to fall off a cliff.
So if it isn’t all Brian or the line, whole else is it on? Quarterback Spencer Petras deserves a lot of criticism. Before picking apart his play, I do want to commend him for talking to the media a ton last year. He is also transitioning to coaching after a late season injury last year so his love of the game is off the charts. However, he struggled mightily with accuracy, reads, and feel for the game in his time at Iowa. For accuracy, he never developed much of a touch for deep balls and far too often he would throw a 100 mph fastball when a simple pass with touch would set a receiver up better. For reads, he would often throw into traffic despite someone else being wide open. Finally, his feel. Far too often he would launch a 50 yard bomb…on third and one…with a receiver wide open three yards away. These are the mistakes you expect a freshman to make, not someone with his experience. Now Brian Ferentz is the QB coach so a lot of that is on him, but also Petras was kind of a practice all-American. He would slay it in practice, only to get the yips in the real game. Even with all this there was one final piece of last year’s puzzle…injuries.
The receiving corps was DECIMATED by injuries and departures in the offseason. 2021’s team had eight players with at least 100 receiving yards. Leading receiver, Sam LaPorta, was outstanding again in 2022. Second leading receiver, Keagan Johnson messed up his knee after just two catches last year. Third leading receiver, Nico Ragaini, suffered a foot injury in camp, missed three games, and was slowed by it the first half of the season. Fourth was Charlie Jones, who transferred to Purdue. Fifth was Tyler Goodson, who was a thousand yard running back and went pro. Sixth was Arland Burce IV, who turned out to be betting on Iowa games – did that lead to some of his poor play last year? Who knows, only he can answer that. Seventh was Luke Lachey, who had a really strong year last year as the other tight end with LaPorta. Lastly eighth was Tyrone Tracy, who also transferred to Purdue. Contrary to popular belief, Iowa is not deep enough to lose three guys straight up, a fourth to injury after two catches, and have another hobbled all year. Even with a better OL and QB situation last year, Iowa wasn’t passing on anybody with efficiency with that weakened of a receiver group.
So…was I a homer just giving a ton of excuses…no! I was analyzing why the offense was – flat out – DREADFUL. It isn’t as simple as “Brian Feretnz is the worst person in the world at his job.” It was much more nuanced than that. This analysis will also help explain why I think this Iowa offense will be much improved and when mixed with yet another fantastic Iowa defense, this year’s version can compete for a western title.
Starting with the quarterback position, Iowa has a massive upgrade thanks to the transfer addition of Cade McNamara. He was a big piece of Michigan’s CFB run in 2021 with over 2,500 yards, 64% completion rate, and 15 TDs to 6 INTS. Last year he lost a hard-fought battle in camp to J.J. McCarthy but injuries also hurt his standing at Michigan. With him healthy, he should immediately boost Iowa’s attack. Spot-starter Alex Padilla transferred out but sophomore Joe Labas showed some flashes in his first career start – the Music City Bowl versus Kentucky. Wisconsin transfer Deacon Hill was a heavily recruited three-star prospect and adds nice depth to this group. While two and three on the depth chart aren’t as experienced as Petras or Padilla were last year, talent wise they are most likely upgrades.
The running game will be keyed by last year’s leading rusher, Kaleb Johnson. As a freshman he had almost 800 yards and six scores. All the while running behind a poor offensive line and no one afraid of the passing game. He has the size, speed, and athleticism to be one of Iowa’s best backs of the Ferentz era, he just needs a bit more blocking and defenses scared enough of passing not to commit a hundred guys to the box. Junior Leshon Williams had over 400 yards last year and is plenty talented to give Johnson some breathers. Sophomore Jaziun Patterson turned down Alabama and Florida to come to Iowa. The three-star back saw the field sparingly last year. I’m curious if he gets some more playing time this year.
The receiving corps will also be improved over last year despite LaPorta getting NFL checks and the transfers of Keagan Johnson and Bruce IV. TE Luke Lachey was Iowa’s second leading receiver last year and had 4 of Iowa’s 7 passing touchdown receptions. He is due up in a long line of NFL-bound tight ends this program has produced. Joining Lachey is senior leader Nico Ragaini. He is healthy again after last year’s up-and-down 400 yard season. Diante Vines missed the first six games due to injury but even when back didn’t get a lot to do but he provides nice route running and some quickness when he did see the ball. The aforementioned Leshon Williams was also a factor in the passing game despite limited touches.
The good thing is the receiver corps was boosted by some incoming transfers. Michigan TE Erick All was fantastic in 2021 but a season-ending injury last year held him to just three catches. Dynamic receiver Kaleb Brown was a solid four-star recruit but just couldn’t crack the rotation at Ohio State. He ran a 4.4 forty as a high school senior so at the very least he will provide some insane speed. Seth Anderson comes in from Charleston Southern. He earned Second Team All Big South last year and Big South Offensive Freshman of the Year after racking up over 600 yards and 7 TDs. Astute Iowa fans might be curious about last year’s fan-favorite Brody Brecht. Unfortunately he was snubbed in the MLB draft mostly because of his split attention. He stepped away from the football team to focus solely on Hawkeye baseball now.
So hopefully you would agree that Iowa’s skill position set should be better and if Brian Feretnz can get things back to his previous season’s levels, the offense should be fine…but there is a big caveat with all this: the offensive line. Iowa returns all five starters, unfortunately, the line was not so hot last year. Okay, that’s a kind way of putting it. Still, there are intriguing pieces of talent in this unit and the year of trial by fire should make them more experienced.
The anchor of this unit is LT Mason Richman. He was an Honorable Mention All Big Ten last year. Several media outlets have him on pre-season teams so if Richman performs as expected – not even tasked with exceeding expectations, just merely up to his game – the left side of the line will be better than last year.
Center is a deep position with Logan Jones winning the starting job last year despite switching from DL to OL. With the experience gained last year plus the camp this year, he should be way more comfortable with his role. Battling Jones in camp was Tyler Elsbury – who saw action in 12 games with a few starts. While Eslbury didn’t shine as a starter, he is very experienced to have on the second unit. Providing potential depth at center, as well as other positions, is grad transfer Rusty Feth. He has 34 career starts – 25 at center – for Miami (OH). His versatility will mean he gets on the field in a variety of ways this year.
To round things out, Nick DeJong had a pretty big learning curve last year but is now more experienced, Beau Stephens had some growing pains last year but is also experienced, Connor Colby is a former four-star recruit who hasn’t lived up to those expectations just yet but didn’t play at all in 2021 – so perhaps this is his breakout season, and Daijon Parker is another experienced transfer (Saginaw Valley State). This OL won’t be the best in the Big Ten…but they won’t be as dreadful as last year. They took their lumps but they are deeper and more experienced now than a season ago. They should be okay – unspectacular – but okay.
Now let’s get to the fun stuff with Iowa…Phil Parker’s insane defense. Not merely one of the best in the league every year, Iowa’s numbers are up there with some of the best defenses in the whole nation each and every year. 2023 should be no different.
In the secondary, Iowa sees the departures of Riley Moss and Kaevon Merriweather. Moss had a fantastic career at Iowa and even though his numbers were solid last year, he did appear a pinch slower after an injury in 2021 so while he will be greatly missed, he isn’t a living god to replace. Merriweather’s departure is also a hit, but not disastrous. As good as he was, safety is one of the easier positions to fill and oh, hey, look, Iowa has five-star recruit Xavier Nwankpa ready to step up.
The outstanding Cooper DeJean – one of the nation’s best defensive backs – is ready to step into Moss’s role as the primary coverage man. He has All-American talent and is coming off a three pick-six season. Yes, three defensive touchdowns in one season. Wowza. Joining him at starting corner is Jermai Harris. Harris played well enough in 2021 to become a starter later in that season. Last year he was announced as the starter in camp and then suffered a season-ending injury. Another key returnee is safety Quinn Schulte, who started every game last year. He is one of the smartest players on the team with a ton of academic awards and that allows him to be a solid player if not the most pure athlete on the roster. He has some preseason buzz as a second teamer for a few outlets.
Providing depth to the secondary is TJ Hall (played in all 13 games last year), Jamison Heinz (key special teams contributor who played all 13 games), Brenden Deasfernandes (was second on depth chart last year until a season-ending injury), Deshaun Lee, and one of the most versatile Hawkeyes, Sebastian Castro. Castro is slated as the starting cash / leo player. Phil Parker loves putting talented tweeners in this position so look for Castro all over the field as a coverage linebacker or extra DB crashing the line.
Linebacker will be a little more difficult to fill the missing star. Jack Campbell is one of the best linebackers in Iowa history and he is rightfully off to the NFL after racking up all sorts of honors last year. Still, there are plenty of players to work with. Senior Jay Higgins learned behind Campbell the last few years and has seen plenty of action in his time at Iowa. The coaches feel he is ready for that starting role. Virginia grad transfer Nick Jackson was Second Team All-ACC last year and has played a ton – 33 career starts, 46 career games and his stats are brokers. He has 354 career tackles already! He will be a fantastic addition to this defense. Senior Kyler Fisher will be featured prominently as well. He saw action in all 13 games as a part of the LB rotation last year. Some additional players who could see their number called in are Karson Sharar and Tanner Pollock. Sharar got into the first seven games last year before an injury ended the year. He left camp on the two-deep in Spring. Pollock is a transfer from FCS Drake where he had 100 tackles, 5.5 TFL, and two picks last season. Obviously the Big Ten is a big step up in competition from the Pioneer League but he is certainly a sure tackler.
The DL carries on the same trend as the secondary and LB group: a key departure – Luke Van Ness – is off to the NFL, but plenty of intriguing talent remains. First up on the interior is Logan Lee who started every game last year and garnered Honorable Mention All Big Ten honors. Folks are also high on Deontae Craig. He saw action in all 13 games last year and after a MONSTER bowl performance, Craig Steel put him on his preseason Big Ten Second Team.
A pair of Iowa Western Community College teammates have transferred in and will also boost the inside positions: Jackson Filer and Anterio Thompson. Iowa Western won the JUCO national title last year and Filer was NCJAA National Defensive Player of the Year with 56 tackles, 28 TFL, and 15.5 sacks. Thompson’s accolades weren’t as lofty as Filer’s but he was all-conference and all-region. Remaining interior depth comes from Max Llewellyn, Ethan Hurkett, 6’5 -315 pound mountain man Yahya Black, Chris Reames, and Aaron Graves, who had a solid freshman season. Obviously DT Noah Shannon’s suspension for the year related to the state of Iowa’s gambling probe is a hit, but DL is Iowa’s deepest position group so it isn’t the end of the world if his appeal fails (which it most likely will).
Out on the end of this line, fifth-year senior Joe Evans is the man to keep an eye on. He was Second Team All Big Ten last year. Originally a walk-on linebacker, Evans was moved to a line position a few years ago and hasn’t looked back. His growth over his career has made him a fan favorite in Iowa City.
Finally we get to what Iowa fans really like – the punting game. Simply put, the special teams is the best in the league and one of the best in the whole nation. Tory Taylor was an All-American punter last year and could win the Groza this year. Kicker Drew Stevens hit all of his PATs last year and went 16/18 on field goals. He has the leg, too. He was 2/2 from 50+ last year. Oh by the way, he was only a freshman last year.
2023 Schedule:
Utah State:
- Best Case: The Aggies started last year 1-4 and were demolished by Alabama. Hawkeyes cruise. 1-0
- Worst Case: Despite getting hot in the second half of the season and making a bowl game, Hawks enjoy a pretty healthy talent edge. 1-0
- Prediction: Cade’s health coming into this one is a little up and down so it is hard to predict, if he plays, Iowa should win by a healthy margin. If he sits, Iowa should still win, but it won’t be as efficient. I’m going to hedge and split the two down the middle. W, 28-3, 1-0 (0-0)
At Iowa State:
- BC: If you have followed this offseason at all, you know Iowa State has been hit incredibly hard by the state’s gambling investigation, losing, among others, their starting quarterback. 2-0
- WC: Even prior to the suspensions, Iowa was the more complete roster. 2-0
- P: I never take the Cyclones lightly, especially in Ames…but it is really hard to overlook just how much their offseason got blown up a few weeks ago. Iowa wins a gritty El Assico classic. W, 17-13, 2-0 (0-0)
Western Michigan:
- BC: The Broncos played two power-five squads last year – MSU and Pitt – they lost both games by three touchdowns. 3-0
- WC: Even if Iowa’s offense turns out to be a pup again, their defense will let them win games like this. 3-0
- P: A fully healthy Cade let’s ‘er rip as Iowa opens up the playbook some in preparation for league play. W, 35-7, 3-0 (0-0)
At Penn State:
- BC: Iowa has won some doozies in Happy Valley including the 20th anniversary of the 6-4 win back in 2004. 4-0
- WC: First time Bri-ball shows up and we lay an egg, literally, we get shut out. 3-1
- P: Penn State has a ton of high flying athletes all over the field, so they enjoy a talent edge. They are also the home team. Thank god defenses travel so Iowa can hang in…I’m just not expecting a win. L, 24-10, 3-1 (0-1)
Michigan State:
- BC: MSU’s defense is trash and Iowa’s defense shuts down Sparty. 5-0
- WC: Bri-ball antics yet again, lord help us. 3-2
- P: I’ve been beating this drum for years on this blog – take the more talented team at home. W, 21-14, 4-1 (1-1)
Purdue:
- BC: Iowa moves into the top ten much to the annoyance of….everyone, just like last time. Skip Bayless complains about us for a full hour. 6-0
- WC: Brohm is gone but not Iowa’s ability to find new and exciting ways to lose to Purdue! 3-3
- P: Broken record alert – Iowa is the more talented squad and the game is in Iowa City. W, 28-10, 5-1 (2-1)
At Wisconsin:
- BC: The UW air raid versus Iowa’s secondary leads to a pick-filled afternoon for ‘ol Herky. 7-0
- WC: Cade’s knee is shot, the OL can’t stop a cold, and Iowa ranks 120th in offense. 3-4
- P: This is a shameless, shameless reason – BUT – I have Iowa winning the division. In order to get that outcome, I have Iowa winning this one head’s up. Wretched, I know, W, 24-21, 6-1 (3-1)
Minnesota:
- BC: Despite a bye week between games, Michigan has so roughed up the Gophers, that Iowa cruises to a…woah…top five ranking?! 8-0
- WC: The boos whenever Iowa’s offense messes up is deafening. 3-5
- P: Gopher’s strength will be passing this year and that is one of Iowa’s counter strengths. Iowa’s secondary slows the Gopher passing attack down and keeps Floyd. W, 24-21, 7-1 (4-1)
Northwestern:
- BC: With the division all but locked up, top 5 Iowa is on autopilot and smashes a hapless Northwestern team. 9-0
- WC: Hard to win games if you average six points a game. 3-6
- P: Defensive masterclass and Iowa has a workman like victory. W, 24-7, 8-1 (5-1)
Rutgers:
- BC: Hawkeyes hit half a hundred early in the fourth quarter. 10-0
- WC: Even in a wretched nightmare season, Iowa’s defense won’t go quietly into that good night. 4-6
- P: Hawkeye D should make RU’s offense day miserable. W, 24-7, 9-1 (6-1)
Illinois:
- BC: Lot’s of new faces for the Illini and they just don’t pan out. 11-0
- WC: Make or break time in the Ferentz regime. Former AD (and incompetent leader) Gary Barta is gone. Can Brian keep his job or does his father fire him? 4-7
- P: Illinois won this one 9-6 last year in an absolutely garbage Bri-ball special. With the new talent on offense and a more mature OL, the Hawks flip the script. W, 17-6, 10-1 (7-1)
At Nebraska:
- BC: Despite the division being locked up, Iowa wants to stay in the top four of the CFP poll so they keep all the starters in and blowout the Huskers. 12-0
- WC: Nebraska is exceeding all expectations, miraculously winning the division, and Iowa has to watch Bri-ball one last time. 4-8
- P: Casey Thompson transferred and is no longer there to hurt us Iowa fans. W, 24-13, 11-1 (8-1)
Wrap Up:
Iowa’s offense last year was historically atrocious. It was atrocious even by Brian Ferentz standards. Despite that, Iowa was a blown game against Nebraska away from winning the division. Iowa’s defense remains nationally elite and their offense won’t be as bad for these three reasons: 1 – vastly improved QB play, 2 – more mature OL, 3 – Brian isn’t an offensive guru by any stretch, but even he is used to having offenses score in the mid 20s to low 30s based on his career. With that uptick in offensive success, the bruising defense, and the phenomenal specialists, I feel good about picking Iowa as the west’s winner over the dangerous-looking Badgers. Call me a homer, I can take it!
Big Ten and Counting 