It is game week dear readers. We have just a few previews left after highlighting Northwestern, Rutgers, Indiana, Nebraska, Michigan State, Maryland, and Wisconsin and today we land on – quite naturally – Wisconsin’s arch rival: Minnesota.
The Gophers have had a pretty solid back-to-back stretch going 18-8 (11-7) after a pair of nine win seasons. Last year’s squad was extremely experienced and a legit factor in the crowded west but they lost to Purdue, were one of many teams Illinois picked off, dropped Floyd to Iowa, and were completely embarrassed by Penn State. Slipping from 6-3 to 5-4 in the league was not what the Gophers were expecting, especially after bringing back Kirk Ciarrocca to run the offense – the same OC who made Tanner Morgan look so good in 2019’s 11-win season. Alas, the magic did not strike twice and now Ciarrocca has left the Twin Cities again, but with the foundation P.J. Fleck has built, there is no reason for the Gophers not to go bowling this year. Yes, their path to a title game is insanely tough with two brutal crossovers, but they could impact the western race and – as mentioned – should easily get to a bowl.
Late last season QB Tanner Morgan got hurt against Nebraska and what could have been a disaster, turned out to be a blessing in disguise. Freshman Athan Kaliakmanis got to have way more playing time than expected. He played the second half against Nebraska and did okay, he didn’t do much against Northwestern because it was Northwestern and the Gophers just ran all over them (302 rushing yards), he played poorly in a trial-by-fire against Iowa’s outstanding defense, and then came his day. The Wisconsin game. He had himself a doozy: 19/29, 319 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs. He has a big arm and the Gophers are excited to see what he can do now with a full camp as QB1.
Joining Kaliakmanis as the newbie is of course the new OCs, well, co-OCs, Matt Simon and Greg Harbaugh Jr . Simon has been on staff a while as the WR coach and has been co-OC since 2020. With how good the WR room is, it’s clear his work as passing game coordinator and position coach has been pretty dang good. Harbaugh hasn’t been with UM as long but he did coach the Tight Ends last year and wouldn’t you know it, UM has one of the best TE’s in the league. I don’t normally love the idea of co-coordinators but if it’s ever going to work it will be with Minnesota because both of these guys are in their thirties and probably not as set in their ways, Simon has already been doing the collaborative thing and Harbaugh has never been an OC before, you would think he would soak it in and want to learn from Fleck and Simon. Will it work perfectly in Minnesota, who knows, but at least it doesn’t smell like a disaster waiting to happen.
Joining Kaliakmanis and the new OCs is also a new face at running back, Sean Tyler (Western Michigan transfer). Tyler has the minor task of replacing Mo Ibrahim – the program’s all time leading rusher (4,600 yards). Unfortunately Ibrahim’s talented backup Trey Potts transferred to PSU, but third leading rusher Byrce Williams has been a steady contributor the last few years and brings senior leadership to the running back group.
Joining…okay, you see the theme? When you are silly experienced last year, you’ll get some new faces in the new preview. But along the OL the Gophers will have to replace all three interior lineman, including Remington finalist John Michael Schmitz. Thankfully the two tackles are back and they are poised for breakout seasons. RT Quinn Carroll started all 13 games for the Gophers and was an Honorable Mention All Big Ten last season. LT Aireontae Ersery was also Honorable Mention and also started all 13 games.
Replacing the three inside guys isn’t easy, but having your two tackles set is a huge silver lining because if worst comes to worst, you just call some boot legs and edge rushing plays during the first few weeks of the season as the rest of the line gets sorted out. Fleck has turned UM into a real destination for lineman and has developed two and three star kids into NFL players like, oh, hey there John Michael Schmitz and your zero power five offers other than Minnesota. While there is work to be done, I’m not hitting the panic button for the Gophers’s offensive line.
Saving the best for last, let’s talk about some receivers and a stupidly talented tight end. This group being good should come as no surprise given that Fleck was a receiver back in the day and knows that position backwards and forwards. Leading receiver Daniel Jackson is back after his 37 catches, 557 yards last season. Chris Autman-Bell hopes to rebound after a season-ending injury last year. From 2018 to 2021 he averaged 28.5 catches, 439 yards, and 3 TDs per year. Le’Meke Brockington showed flashes as a freshman last year with 11 catches and over 200 yards. Rounding out the key returnees is Kirsten Hoskins. He was a 3-star last year but was redshirted. Now with two camps under his belt, I’m curious if he can see the field some.
Two key role players transferred out in Michael Brown-Stephens (USF) and Dylan Wright (TCU) but these were offset by two incoming transfers. Elijah Spencer was outstanding at Charlotte last year with nearly 60 catches, 943 yards, and nine touchdowns. Corey Crooms Jr is coming off two back-to-back awesome years at Western Michigan. Over his last two seasons he has 101 catches, 1,582 yards, and 11 touchdowns. With all due respect to Brown-Stephens and Wright, these two additions are clear upgrades.
Lastly, can I interest you in a tight end? Brevyn Spann-Ford was second on the team with 497 yards but led the team in catches with 42. At 6’7, 270 he is a massive target that will win almost any match up he gets this year. In an absolutely NO DUH comment, Spann-Ford is already on the Mackey watch list to start 2023. Nick Kallerup and Jameson Geers provide nice depth to the tight end group.
As exciting as the offense is, the defense is a lot more unsettled. The foundation is there since they finished 4th nationally in points allowed and 9th nationally in yards allowed but the secondary was hit especially hard by player departures. Two key players are off to the NFL and two more transferred. Tyler Nubin is the star of the returning talent, coming off an All Big Ten Second Team appearance., In the bowl game Darius Green played particularly well. Even before the bowl he appeared in every game of his RS Freshman year so he and Nubin are certainly players UM can build around, they just need some untested talent to pan out.
At Linebacker the staff is excited to have Cody Lindenberg stepping up into a leading role. Back in 2020 he got some nice game action as a freshman but then missed almost all of 2021 with injury. Last year he was back but it wasn’t until the second half of the season he became the starter. All told he did well, and was named an Honorable Mention All Big Ten last year. Lindenberg has the talent to burst onto the scene this year and will be tasked with anchoring things in this position group. WMU transfer Ryan Selig is a great addition for this unit.
Up front, UM needs some help. While the defense overall has played well, the pass rush has been spectacularly non-existent. They were 118th in sacks last year. Leading sack getter, Danny Striggow (3.5 Sacks), is back and will be asked to come off the edge again. Can anyone else join in at getting a pass rush? Who knows. The line did hold up well against the run last year – obviously they had to with UM’s total defensive efficiency – so the unit isn’t bad per say, they just can’t get to the quarterback!
Special teams was pretty solid for the Gophers last year and most of those pieces are back, save one, kicker Matthew Trickett. As a senior he missed just two field goals and never missed a single PAT while in a Gopher jersey. His reliability will be missed but UM entered camp with a three-man race to win the job so there are plenty of options.
2023 Schedule:
Nebraska:
- Best Case: With so many new faces on the roster and staff, Nebraska comes out disorganized in week one. 1-0
- Worst Case: Gophers’ new look interior OL and defense hasn’t clicked yet and the Huskers get a mammoth road win. 0-1
- Prediction: If you are playing a drinking game for when I make this statement, now is a time to drink: more talented + playing at home = predicted win. W, 27-17, 1-0 (1-0)
Eastern Michigan:
- BC: Eastern won nine games last year but most of those were MAC games or non-power league wins. 2-0
- WC: Eastern kicked Arizona State’s butt last year. They are no joke. 1-1
- P: Eastern has the chops to hang around, but Gophers use their outstanding passing game to get chunk plays and ultimately outlast a good MAC foe. W, 31-21, 2-0 (1-0)
At North Carolina:
- BC: The defense locks down Drake Maye and the Gopher offense passes all over the Heels. 3-0
- WC: Zero pass rush and Maye is the one passing all over the field. 1-2
- P: Current ESPN models give the Gophers a 1 in 3 chance of winning and that feels about right. We know UNC will have a great offense this year while UM’s defense is a bit more of an unknown. Not saying UM can’t win, just not predicting it. L, 28-21, 2-1 (1-0)
At Northwestern:
- BC: Winning the games they are supposed to is why UM is 18-8 over the last two years. 4-0
- WC: NU is fighting hard in the face of adversity and having the more experienced QB gets the job done. 1-3
- P: Gophers enjoy a fairly wide talent gap advantage in this game. They should win, even on the road. W, 28-17, 3-1 (2-0)
Louisiana:
- BC: Ragin’ Cajuns only played one power-five team last year and they were blown out. 5-0
- WC: The club was 6-7 overall and just 4-4 in the Sun Belt. They’re okay, but Minnesota should cook. 2-3
- P: The boys from Lafayette have been transferring left and right all offseason. The Gophers have zero reason to blow this game. W, 42-17, 4-1 (2-0)
Michigan:
- BC: Well, it’s at home so that helps…but as of now before a game has been played, Michigan has the talent edge. 5-1
- WC: Completely blown out and a lot of doubts about Fleck’s future start to creep in. 2-4
- P: If Minnesota’s offense is as dangerous as I think it could be, they would find a way to hang in…but I’m just not sure the defense will be able to hold up for four quarters against the Wolverines. L, 31-14, 4-2 (2-1)
At Iowa:
- BC: Gophers bounce back with a huge divisional win AND get the Pig back up north. 6-1
- WC: Michigan has softened the Gophers up and Iowa takes advantage. 2-5
- P: What a grueling stretch for the Gophers. Back-to-back hard-hitting teams and in Iowa’s case, their pass defensive strength stacks up well against UM’s passing attack. Iowa manages to hold home court. L. 24-21, 4-3 (2-2)
Michigan State:
- BC: MSU’s bugaboo last year? Passing defense. 7-1
- WC: Everything has fallen apart. The OL isn’t holding up, the new faces on defense aren’t panning out, and the team is flatlining. 2-6
- P: Simply put, I think I trust Minnesota more – especially at the QB position. W, 24-21, 5-3 (3-2)
Illinois:
- BC: Illinois lost a TON of key contributors. Their backslide is Minnesota’s gain. 8-1
- WC: Injuries have mounted, nothing is working, and the Gophers won’t be bowling. 2-7
- P: This one reeks of a coin-flip but Minnesota is at home and with so many players moving on from the Illini’s breakthrough season last year, I’m tempted to take the Gophers. W, 21-17, 6-3 (4-2)
At Purdue:
- BC: Holy smokes, talk about teams with new faces. Illinois has nothing on this Purdue squad. Gophers roll. 9-1
- WC: One of those nightmare seasons where everything that could go wrong, has. 2-8
- P: The Boilermakers might make me look silly but I have sold all my stock on them. I think they will be legitimately bad this year. W, 31-17, 7-3 (5-2)
At Ohio State:
- BC: Just like the Michigan game…the Gophers give it a great go but come up short. 9-2
- WC: Down by 31 at halftime. 2-9
- P: Unfortunately for Minnesota you want to get Ohio State early in the season as they are breaking in a new quarterback…not the penultimate game. L, 35-17, 7-4 (5-3)
Wisconsin:
- BC: Injuries have derailed the Badgers and the Gophers sweep the division. Thanks to carnage behind them, their two crossover losses don’t matter and they win the West, setting up a re-match versus OSU or Michigan. 10-2
- WC: UW is off to the title game and demolishes their overwhelmed rival. 2-10
- P: This won’t be an easy win for either team, but I like Wisconsin’s potential and by the end of the season they should have reached it, so they escape with the Axe. L, 21-17, 7-5 (5-4)
Wrap Up:
Minnesota is a solid team with a crappy schedule. Their crossovers are brutal AND they have the UNC game in the non-conference. Throw in a road trip to Iowa City for extra measure and you get an idea of just how challenging this schedule will be. The good news is Minnesota is more than talented enough to flip any of these games. Despite picking against Minnesota in the UNC, Michigan, Iowa, OSU, and Wisconsin games – the Gophers could flip several of these. UNC has defensive issues, Iowa has offensive issues, and Wisconsin has tons of new players – they might not click in year one. Gophers could take advantage if things break their way. Still, predicting seven wins and a bowl is nothing to sneeze at with this strength of schedule. It is a testament to what the Gophers have built that even in a rough year scheduling wise, I had zero hesitation about this club coming away with a winning record.
Big Ten and Counting 