What an interesting culinary back to back: crab cakes Monday and cheese curds today…and in case you haven’t been told this a million times, cheese curds signal that today’s preview is Wisconsin. Not a Badger fan? No worries the following previews have already been posted: Northwestern, Rutgers, Indiana, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Maryland.
When Wisconsin brought home Paul Chryst the excitement was palpable and the success immediate. He won four straight bowl games to start his tenure and had three divisional titles over his first five years. His overall record was absurd: 52-16 (34-10) and had two top-ten finishes but things started to go awry. The COVID season saw an up-and-down 4-3 (3-3) campaign but they won another bowl. 2021 was a solid 9-4 (6-3) but there were some troubling cracks behind the scenes. Poorly performing coaches were shuffled around rather than dismissed. Succeeding coaches were moved to try and put out fires but were then in a position group they weren’t as good with. And then there was the lack of development for Graham Mertz. The touted recruit played well, when healthy, in 2020. He then played…the exact same in 2021. He then played…the exact same in 2022.
The heat-function on Chryst’s seat was turned on, but like the seat warmer in your car, his buns were getting toasty, but nothing he couldn’t survive. Unfortunately 2022 started 2-3 with two league losses being blowouts – so lopsided were the games that UW was outscored 86-31 by Ohio State (understandable) and Illinois (uhh…?). Chryst was politely told behind closed doors that he would get to coach out the stretch in 2022 but that it would be his last year. He, understandably, said bleep you and bleep that, so he was fired after the 2-3 start.
Wisconsin wunderkind Jimmy Leonhard coached the rest of the season and the team did play better, going 5-3. An overtime loss to Michigan State prevented the back end from being an even better record. Unfortunately for Leonhard he dropped the Iowa and Minnesota games and at times the team looked poorly managed. It was a good first impression as an interim coach, but not enough to yank the interim tag off him. As a result the athletic program looked around and pulled off a massive hire: Luke Fickell. His tenure at Cincinnati was, simply put, amazing. He went 57-18 (35-11) and his 2020 and 2021 seasons were a combined 22-2 (14-0), two league titles, two top-ten finishes, and an appearance in the College Football Playoffs.
Just like what happened when Paul Chryst was hired, the excitement is palpable but there is the possibility for a bumpy transition year. New coach, new quarterback, new offensive coordinator, and new defensive coordinator are just a few of the new faces that Wisconsin will have to click after just one offseason if Wisconsin will live up to expectations: a trip to the title game.
New OC Phil Longo comes in with a…checks notes, is this right?…an air raid background? Yes, Longo does want to become more pass heavy than Wisconsin fans are used to, but in 2021 Ty Chandler had over 1,000 yards and in 2020 the Tar Heels had two thousand yard backs. Last year was an aberration as QB Drake Maye led the Heels in rushing. So yeah the offense will pass more but it’s not like Longo is a Mike Leach (RIP) 2.0.
Being tasked to run this new offense is SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai. In a pass-heavy Mustang offense he put up insane numbers, but with a completion percentage at 65% or above the last two years and just 24 INTs to 72 TDs he is not just a system quarterback. He is highly accurate and makes great reads. However, with just Myles Burkett left on the roster with a career pass attempt and every other QB a freshman or redshirt freshmen, Mordecai’s health is a huge priority. In case you were wondering, Graham Mertz transferred to Florida.
Running Back is fully loaded with junior Braelon Allen leading the way. Allen has back-to-back 1200+ seasons, 23 career touchdowns, and zero career fumbles. His talent is NFL-ready and if the offensive line is even mediocre, he can get to the thousand yard plateau again. His primary backup is Chez Mellusi. Mellusi has the talent to start at a lot of programs but at Wisconsin he is in a secondary role. Despite that he has had over 1,200 yards the last two seasons combined and has averaged 4.5 yards per pop the last two years. He has also yet to fumble. Now that I have jinxed both of these talented backs, let’s move on to the other skill position players.
The receiver room is packed with a mix of returning talent and transfers. For the return side of the ledger things start with Chimere Dike, who led the Badgers with almost 700 yards last year. This is a pinch misleading though as he had a 10 catch, 185 yard explosion against hapless Northwestern a season ago. Take that game out and he averages around 3 catches for 30-40 yards per game. Still a nice number, just not the insane total he had versus the Cats.
Second leading receiver Skyler Bell is also back and he had 30 catches, 444 yards, and 5 TDs. Although it should be noted that just like Dike he has a bonkers outlier. Against New Mexico State he had 4 catches, 108 yards, and 2 scores. Again, he is a nice player but his season stats are propped up by one insane career day. Rounding out the returnees is Keontez Lewis (20 receptions, 313 yards).
The returning Tight End talent is less clear as two players retired from football in early August. Clay Cundiff (9 receptions for 142) and Jack Eschenbach (14 receptions for 120) were the most experienced on-roster Tight Ends. Now seniors Hayden Rucchi (six career catches) and redshirt freshman JT Seagreaves (one catch) are the “experience” at this position.
If none of those players excite you, maybe the transfers will. C.J. Williams (USC) was a four-star prospect who, quite frankly, did nothing with the Trojans due to injury last year. Due to nagging injuries he was limited to just a few games and four catches but he has a ton of upside. So much in fact, that 247 listed him as a four-star transfer portal player. Will Pauling was with coach Fickell at Cincy and had 12 receptions last year, not bad for a freshman. He was a solid three-star kid during his recruiting period. Finally, the cherry on top: Bryson Green. As an Okie State Cowboy last year he hauled in 36 passes for almost 600 yards and 5 touchdowns. No random game propping him up, either. He had three hundred-yard days and an 84 yard outing. In fact, his outliers actually hurt his average. Somehow against Arkansas Pine Bluff he only had one catch for 12 yards. He will be a day-one impact starter.
The offensive line though will make or break the potential for the offense. Unlike past Badger lines there isn’t a Joe Thomas like mega star anchoring things but it is experienced and deep in talent. Jack Nelson is a two time Honorable Mention All Big Ten over at left tackle, Tanor Bortolini was Honorable Mention All Big Ten last year at left guard, right guard Michael Furtney has over 40 career game appearances, and right tackle Riley Mahlman played well last year in an injury-shortened 2022. Center Jake Renfro was great at Cincinnati in 2021 but missed all of last year due to injury. The staff expects to run a pretty deep seven or eight, maybe even a nine man rotation so the players out there will always be fresh. I’m not sure this line has the talent to be the best in the league, but it should be efficient and will certainly hold up if any injury bugs bite with how deep the unit is.
With eight starters back on defense, this unit should be dominant. ILB Maema Njongmeta was the leading tackler for the Badgers last year and looks to continue his trajectory as yet another outstanding linebacker to dress for UW. Hunter Wohler’s health is a big concern for the new staff. As new DC Mike Tressel looks to blend the previous Leonhard defense into his 3-3-5 look, Wohler’s ability to be a flex position player becomes important.
Unfortunately for Wisconsin the talent that did depart were critical pass-rush players like LB Nick Herbig. As a result Njongmeta may be called upon to do more pass rushing than he did under the previous staff. The secondary is also fine, but much like the OL, the entire defense is kind of a sum-of-the-parts unit. Again, the experience is off the charts, so don’t expect the defense to suddenly stink, it just isn’t as exciting to write or read about here in the offseason.
One area that Fickell is planning on overhauling immediately is in special teams. Often treated like an afterthought under Chryst, Fickell hired a dedicated special teams coach and it is a big name: Matt Mitchell. Mitchell spent the past 12 years as head coach of D-2 Grand Valley State. He went an impressive 117-31 (84-22) with three league titles. It is a homecoming of sorts for Mitchell as he has worked with Mike Tressel before and the two played together in college.
2023 Schedule:
Buffalo:
- Best Case: The Bulls struggled mightily outside of MAC play, going 0-3 in the regular season non-conference play, including a loss to FCS Holy Cross. 1-0
- Worst Case: They did win a bowl but I don’t see how Wisconsin doesn’t take care of business. 1-0
- Prediction: Bulls only gave up 31 to Maryland last year so they might not give up an ungodly amount, but they only managed 10 points in that game a year ago. W, 38-7, 1-0 (0-0)
At Washington State:
- BC: Cougars went bowling last year but lost a ton of talent. Badgers return the favor from last year’s Camp Randall loss. 2-0
- WC: Big Ten teams traveling west sometimes have some goofiness. I doubt UW would lose but there’s a slim chance and the WC is the absolute worst case disaster scenario. 1-1
- P: Cougars have the talent to hang for most of the game, but the Badgers are the more complete outfit. W, 28-17, 2-0 (0-0)
Georgia Southern:
- BC: The scrappy Eagles went bowling last year, but were just 6-7 overall. 3-0
- WC: This team did win at Nebraska last year…but these Badgers are most certainly not last year’s Cornhuskers. 2-1
- P: GSU isn’t a bad Sun Belt team, but the Badgers are much more talented and will be playing this up in Madison. W, 42-13, 3-0 (0-0)
At Purdue:
- BC: I could be proven wrong but based on all the new faces at Purdue, I think they are going to be bad…like, bad-bad. 4-0
- WC: I could also get proven wrong and maybe all of UW’s new faces don’t actually mesh that well after one camp. 2-2
- P: I’m not sure which position group Purdue is better than UW to such a degree that I would consider taking them. Also, UW has won 16 straight in this series. If last year wasn’t PU’s chance to finally win this one…when will it be their chance? W, 28-14, 4-0 (1-0)
Rutgers:
- BC: Badgers out-physical a Rutgers team that is still rebuilding. 5-0
- WC: A too-close-for-comfort victory in Camp Randall. 3-2
- P: I’ll keep beating this drum but there is a simple formula to use here in August: more talented + home team = win. W, 28-14, 5-0 (2-0)
Iowa:
- BC: Badgers practically sew up the division by getting the tiebreaker win over their closest competition in the West. 6-0
- WC: Iowa’s champion level defense rises to the occasion. 3-3
- P: I have Iowa winning the division due to having a slightly easier schedule. This game feels like a toss-up as Iowa’s defense will be among the absolute best in the nation again this year. I’m pretty objective on this site, but hey, sometimes I need to be a homer. L, 24-21, 5-1 (2-1)
At Illinois:
- BC: Another win over another team that thinks they have a chance to win the division. Badgers on cruise control. 7-0
- WC: Illinois’s ground-and-pound attack eats up an overmatched defensive line trying to operate in a 3-3-5 look. 3-4
- P: UI’s 34-10 win last year was the final nail in the coffin for Paul Chryst. I don’t see the returning players rolling over again in this one. Also, Illinois lost a crap-ton of talent. W, 28-10, 6-1 (3-1)
Ohio State:
- BC: Herbie picks his Buckeyes, Corso puts on Bucky’s beautiful Badger head and UW wins a top-5 showdown. 8-0
- WC: The Air Raid adoption isn’t working as UW’s experienced OL was used to run blocking, not pass blocking. 3-5
- P: Ohio State’s quarterback position isn’t nearly as settled as Wisconsins and there are legitimate concerns to have about the Buckeyes as a contender…but…they have a boat load of five-star talent and as much as I’ll be rooting for ‘ol Bucky, I don’t see them pulling this one off. L, 31-17, 6-2 (3-2)
At Indiana:
- BC: Undefeated and have passed their toughest test of the season, the Badgers are in autopilot mode to the title game. 9-0
- WC: The new defense isn’t working, the new offense isn’t working, and injuries are starting to mount. Meanwhile Indiana is shockingly good and the Badgers drop another. 3-6
- P: Much like the Purdue game, even if there were a position group the Hoosiers were superior in, I’m not sure the margin at that position would be enough to win the game. W, 28-13, 7-2 (4-2)
Northwestern:
- BC: Thanks to a crazy turn of events around the nation, the Badgers are now number one in the nation. 10-0
- WC: Bowl hopes kept alive as Wisconsin takes care of the worst team in the division. 4-6
- P: Obviously NU wasn’t as talented as Wisconsin even back when we thought Fitz would coach the team. W, 28-10, 8-2 (5-2)
Nebraska:
- BC: Badgers are shattering offensive records and both Allen and Mordecai are getting some Heisman buzz. 11-0
- WC: In a shocking turn it is Nebraska who has responded to the new coaching staff and new faces and they are marching towards the title game while Wisconsin is left wondering what to fix first for next year. 4-7
- P: Badgers should have the talent edge in this one plus get to cook at home. Easy prediction. W, 28-17, 9-2 (6-2)
At Minnesota:
- BC: Number one in the nation, a pair of Heisman hopefuls, off to the title game and probably the CFP, and now they demolish the Gophers to take the Axe. Dream season. 12-0
- WC: Injuries have derailed Wisconsin and simply put, nothing went right this year. 4-8
- P: Never an easy trip to Minneapolis, especially with the foundation coach Fleck has built but the Badgers have the talent edge on paper. W, 21-17, 10-2 (7-2)
Wrap Up:
There is a ton to love about Wisconsin and the hype about winning the division is completely justified. So why am I not taking them? Well as much crap as Iowa and Brian Ferentz deserve, they’ve had a system in place and recruited for. They are improving their quarterback play and theoretically the offense. Wisconsin isn’t doing a minor tweak. They are installing a new coach, new OC, new system and haven’t really been able to overhaul the roster to accommodate those changes in scheme. I think that will result in Wisconsin dropping a game or two and letting Iowa steal the division – even if the Badgers ultimately wind up being the better team.
I think far too often we as fans think of our teams as the old video game version of college football. Simple AI characters who can change from the 4-3 to the 3-4 without a moment’s hesitation. It doesn’t work that way in real life. New coaches and systems rarely dominate overnight. Here are just a few examples: Lincoln Riley’s USC team was great offensively but couldn’t stop a nose bleed and it cost them the Pac 12 title last year. Nick Saban’s first Alabama team went just 7-6. Kirby Smart’s first Georgia team went just 8-5. Fickell’s work at Cincinnati was remarkable and he could wind up with his own outstanding legacy the way Riley, Saban, and Smart have cultivated theirs but there’s a chance it won’t be in season one. Having given that disclaimer, I do think it is clear that this team has the potential for something special as I predicted 10 wins and had their best case season be a clean sweep.
Big Ten and Counting 