We are officially under two weeks from the season, folks. Nebraska at Minnesota kicks off on 31st so it is officially crunch time. With that in mind let’s crunch some numbers on Maryland and see how our Chesapeake friends will do here in 2023. Oh, if you missed any other team in this series, feel free to catch up on Northwestern, Rutgers, Indiana, Nebraska, and Michigan State by following those links.
2022 was a banner year for Maryland. They started 6-2 with a 7 point loss at Michigan and a 2 point loss to Purdue. A late season slide with three straight losses (at Wisconsin, at Penn State, Ohio State) was a disappointment but the Turtles demolished Rutgers and then took down NC State in the bowl. Those eight wins were the most since 2010’s nine wins. Personally, I’d call the season a breakthrough. The issue of course with breakthroughs is, can they keep it going?
The biggest piece in keeping up the success is under center. Taulia Tagovailoa has lived up to the lofty expectations placed on him with back-to-back 3,000+ yard seasons, 44 TDs to 19 INTs the last two years, and back-to-back 67+ percent completion rates. He became UM’s all-time leader in passing yards last season and it feels pretty safe to pencil him in for about 3,500 yards, 20 TDs, 10 INTs, and a 65% completion percentage. All those numbers can easily be surpassed, too. These are just my baseline expectations. He is that good.
The good news for Maryland is despite a ton of new faces around Tagovailoa, there is a bunch of intriguing talent. Three of the top six receivers are gone but the top two are back. Anchoring the WR group is Jeshaun Jones. He led the team in yards, catches, and TDs. Joining Jones in the WR group is a pair of intriguing transfers. Kaden Prather reeled in 52 catches for 500 yards last season as a WVU Mountaineer. Tyrese Chambers transfers in from FIU. His numbers are bonkers. In 2019 he caught 50 passes for over 800 yards and 8 TDS. In 2020 those numbers jumped to 9 TDs and over 1,000 yards while catching five fewer passes. Last year he nabbed 51 passes for over 500 yards and 4 TDs. Assuming he makes the transition up from C-USA to the Big Ten right away, he could be a major factor in Maryland matching those eight wins – if not exceeding them.
Hey, Josh, I thought you said the top-two receivers were back. Who is the other one? Well, a really exciting Tight End, Corey Dyches, was that second leading receiver. He grabbed 39 passes for 494 yards in 2022 and looks to do even more damage in 2023.
The running game also looks strong with…checks notes…everyone back! Leading rusher Roman Hemby had just under a thousand yards last year as a freshman and when you add in his pass receptions, he was third best for every freshman in the whole nation with over 1,200 yards from scrimmage. Antwan Littleton II chipped in almost 400 yards last year. Colby McDonald and Ramon Brown also provide depth and experience if anything happens to Hemby or Litteton II.
So the elephant in the offensive room is the OL. Four out of five starters are gone. The lone returning face, Delmar Glaze, is a talented tackle (12 starts at RT, 1 at LT last year) and racked up Honorable Mention All Big Ten last year. Transfers Gottlieb Ayedze (Frostburg), Corey Bullock (NC Central) and Marcus Dumervil (LSU) will be called upon early and often by Maryland. Ayedze was a terror in D2, earning up all sorts of accolades. Bullock was Second Team all MEAC last year and gave up just one lone sack despite his team slotting him into a ton of different positions along the line. Dumervil was a four-star recruit and one of the best linemen in his prep class but just didn’t solidify a starting role while with the Tigers. It isn’t easy to click as a unit right away, but if they can get things sorted out over their three easy non-conference games, this unit could emerge as a solid front.
The defense overall showed some growth last season but still gave up almost 26 points per game in league play. While there are big questions up front, there are some really intriguing pieces that return as well as transfers to get excited about.
Tommy Akingbesote was a solid four-star defensive line recruit and got some action in 2021 as a freshman. He got even more playing time last year as a sophomore. If his development trajectory is where the coaches think it is, he will be a solid performer on that line for the Terps. Tennessee transfer Jordan Phillips was announced as the starting nose tackle earlier this offseason. He had a solid prep career and was a touted recruit and even managed to get some playing time with the Volunteers as a freshman but now he’s going to be gobbling up blockers for the Terps. Another transfer, Donnell Brown, is a two-time FCS All American at St. Francis and a great pass rusher. He should adjust well to Big Ten play and be a menace at this level, too.
The linebacking corps has, for my money, the single best Maryland defensive player in it. Jaishawn Barham was a highly touted four-star recruit and had a fantastic freshman season last year, even earning Honorable Mention All Big Ten – not just the freshman team but the whole league. Ruben Hyppolite II had a solid 2021 and was good last year – although injuries cost him a lot of games – a healthier 2023 will help the UM defense mightily as he has a lot of experience. Senior Fa’Najae Gotay also has a ton of experience for the LB group.
The secondary gave up tons of chunk plays last year and is also turning to transfers to bolster things but there is some home-grown talent. CB Tarheeb Still is a really talented senior and S Beau Brade make up the backbones of this unit. Brade was the team leader in tackles last year, which isn’t ideal since he is a safety, but it speaks to his ability. Cincinnati transfer Ja’Quan Sheppard was All-AAC last year and Avantae Williams was the number one safety prospect a few years ago but didn’t quite crack the rotation at Miami (FL). Sheppard is a plug and play talent while Williams could be a difference maker now in a new home.
Special teams are just like the rest of the team – new faces but talented. Punter Colton Spangler is one of the league’s best but new place kicker Harrison Beattie has just one field goal attempt and one PAT attempt in his career. He hit both so that’s good, but obviously he is a little green.
2023 Schedule:
Towson:
- Best Case: The Tigers went just 6-5 last year and were obliterated by West Virginia. 1-0
- Worst Case: Despite Towson finishing strong down the stretch with a four game winning streak, UM should have this game wrapped up by halftime. 1-0
- Prediction: Use this game to get those lines right, Terps. W, 56-7, 1-0 (0-0)
Charlotte:
- BC: A new coaching staff takes over a three-win rebuild. 2-0
- WC: Some stupid season-ending injury to a key player. 2-0
- P: There is no reason for Maryland to flirt with disaster in this game. W, 49-7, 2-0 (0-0)
Virginia:
- BC: Tony Elliot’s first season as a head coach was disorderly as the team looked incompetent on the field last year. His guidance after the shooting was commendable, but on the field the team was wretched. 3-0
- WC: Again, injuries to derail a dream season would be a disaster. 3-0
- P: Virginia could be the worst power-five team in the nation this year. Maryland should breeze to victory. W, 42-14, 3-0 (0-0)
At Michigan State:
- BC: Sparty’s pass defense was awful last year. Uh-oh! 4-0
- WC: MSU’s pass rush bullies UM’s new look OL. 3-1
- P: This may be a gross oversimplification but I see a very experienced quarterback squaring off against a very inexperienced secondary. Terps prevail. W, 28-24, 4-0 (1-0)
Indiana:
- BC: Indiana’s offense remains awful. Terps dominate and crack the top 15. 5-0
- WC: IU’s new quarterback is humming and UM’s pass defense is struggling. 3-2
- P: Simple formula: more talented + home team = win. W, 28-21, 5-0 (2-0)
At Ohio State:
- BC: There is a universe where OSU’s new QB struggles and the Buckeyes take a step back, but I’m not sure that is enough for the Terps to steal this game in the Shoe. 5-1
- WC: Blown out in spectacular fashion. 3-3
- P: Terps are a lock to make a bowl but with so many new transfers I’m just not putting them on the same level as Michigan, Ohio State, or Penn State. L, 35-24, 5-1 (2-1)
Illinois:
- BC: Great bounce back win keeps the Terps polls. 6-1
- WC: Illinois’s ground-and-pound attack eats up an overmatched defensive line. 3-4
- P: There’s a lot to like about both teams but Maryland’s offense looks to be more explosive here in August. They’re also the home team. W, 27-24, 6-1 (3-1)
At Northwestern:
- BC: A dominant win keeps the Terps alive in the title race. 7-1
- WC: Maryland’s defense has fully imploded and things are going off the rails. 3-5
- P: Maryland is a lock to go bowling because they will take advantage of the weaker teams on their schedule. Northwestern clearly qualifies as one of the weaker teams. W, 31-21, 7-1 (4-1)
Penn State:
- BC: Nittany Lions have a stacked defense and shutout Maryland’s outstanding offense last year. Game is closer but the Terps still lose to their rival. 7-2
- WC: Another shutout. 3-6
- P: As mentioned in the OSU prediction, Maryland is just a tier below the elite of this league. L, 28-14, 7-2 (4-2)
At Nebraska:
- BC: The rebuild in Lincoln proves to be a several year rebuild. Maryland picks up another road win. 8-2
- WC: Despite back-to-back bowls, Mike Locksley’s seat turns red hot as a losing season is locked in. 3-7
- P: Maryland is the more complete team right now and their advantage at QB is massive. W, 31-21, 8-2 (5-2)
Michigan:
- BC: This was a one-score game last year. Maryland pulls off a MASSIVE upset as the Wolverines get caught looking ahead to Ohio State. 9-2
- WC: The DL has completely imploded and Michigan racks up almost 300 rushing yards. 3-8
- P: A good game but Maryland comes up a bit short due to their lack of quality depth compared to that top level of this league. L, 31-24, 8-3 (5-3)
At Rutgers:
- BC: Maryland hits double digit wins and thanks to a crazy turn of events in the tiebreakers, Maryland’s win against Michigan and mayhem with OSU and PSU magically gets the Terps the East title. 10-2
- WC: Injuries have derailed Maryland and simply put, nothing went right this year. 3-9
- P: Maryland builds on last year’s eight wins and are in a fantastic position to end the year nationally ranked after a solid bowl selection. W, 35-10, 9-3 (6-3)
Wrap Up:
There is so much to love about this team. The QB, RB, WR1, and TE1 could all start on any team in this league. The new transfers are incredibly intriguing but they need those two new lines to click. If the OL can open up lanes and keep Tagovailoa clean, nine wins feels like a lock with the chance for pulling an upset against OSU, PSU, or Michigan. If the DL can hold up, the same ceiling comes into play. Thank god Iowa doesn’t have them in a crossover game this year, whew.
Big Ten and Counting 