Welcome back dear readers. If you missed any of the previews you can click the following links to get to them: Northwestern, Rutgers, Indiana, and Nebraska. This time around we are going off to East Lansing to take a look at one of the weirdest teams in the Big Ten. Three years ago Michigan State’s head coach Mel Tucker took over a squad that was coming off a 14-12 (9-9) two-year end run for the legendary Mark Dantonio. The 2020 COVID season saw MSU go just 2-5. The following year though was all about Kenneth Walker III. The Wake transfer exploded for Sparty and they rode the talented back to an 11-2 (7-2) record. With him departing for the NFL, most people figured MSU would be fine without him – maybe not as good – but certainly fine. Heck, I had MSU winning 10 games last year and even said “the defense should be better.” And that’s where we cue the ominous music.
The defense was not better. DC Scottie Hazelton oversaw a struggling unit that gave up 27.4 points per game (76th nationally) but those numbers are aided by dominating Western Michigan and Akron. Remove those teams – aka, MSU versus power five teams – that defense performance jumps to 31.6 ppg, which would have been tied for 109th. With numbers like that you’d expect a pretty poor record, and it was. MSU went just 5-7 (3-6) last year. To add insult to injury, they were 5-5 with Indiana and Penn State left. They managed to lose to the Hoosiers in OT before getting obliterated by Penn State to miss out on a bowl.
With Hazelton back and a new man under center, many people are trying to figure out just who and what this Michigan State team will be. Will they put something together that looks like 2021’s double digit wins or will they suffer a second straight losing season? Let’s find out.
That new man under center is Noah Kim and he gets the job in one of the more unusual ways. Last year’s starter, Payton Thorne, was in a battle with Kim during the offseason and then after spring ball, poof, Thorne left for Auburn. While Thorne’s career has been up-and-down, he undoubtedly had more experience as Kim will take the field with just a few appearances in his career and 19 attempted passes.
Kim’s targets also took a hit with a second post-spring transfer. Last year’s leading receiver, Keon Coleman, is off to rival Penn State, telling reporters he “really wants to win the Land Grant trophy this year.” That’s not true – I 100% made that quote up. Second leading wideout, Jayden Reed, has also moved off to the NFL. That puts senior Tre Mosley as the most experienced receiver back. He’s had 35 receptions each of the last two years and was a big piece in the passing game back in 2021. Tight End Maliq Carr showed flashes last year and got more and more involved as the year went on. In fact, eight of his sixteen receptions came in the last three weeks of the season. He should get even more involved this year.
The running game still has last year’s Wisconsin transfer Jalen Berger to lead things. In a three-headed monster attack last year, Berger got the majority of carries and yards. Because the workload was so divided his overall yardage (683) isn’t the biggest but he averaged 4.6 yards per carry. A pair of new transfers – Nathan Carter (UConn) and Jaren Mangham (USF) – each have shown flashes in their career so the running back stable should help Kim out.
The biggest thing to help Kim though will be the offensive line. It was not the reason MSU’s offense struggled last year. They yielded just 18 sacks on the year. The final form of the line that played the last two weeks of the season are all back. Center Nick Samac has played 38 games (22 starts) and enters the year on the Remington watch list. LG J.D. Duplain has 42 career games, 35 starts, and 30 consecutive starts for Sparty. Both of them were honorable mention All Big Ten last year. With this much experience on the line, I expect this unit to remain one of the best in the league, just like last year, when those 18 sacks I mentioned ranked fourth best in the conference.
So now we get to the elephant in the room…the defense. It wasn’t good last year and it wasn’t good in 2021, even with winning 11 games. Can it be improved at all this year? Well one thing for sure, it should be more consistent. Due to player discipline issues last year and the injury bug, 27 players started at least one game in 2022. That’s insane.
The linebacking duo of Cal Haladay and Jacoby Windmon anchor the defense. Windmon was a UNLV transfer last year who adjusted to Big Ten football immediately. He also is a key pass rusher, often lining up in that edge position in passing situations. Haladay is a legit star. He was a Freshman All American in 2021, Second Team all Big Ten last year, and led the conference in tackles per game with 10 tackles per.
The DL has a ton of experience, it’s just a matter of finding the right assembly of the pieces. A lock to play a big role is Khris Bogle. He was a key transfer last year from FSU and was playing well at the start of the year before a season-ending injury. Another intriguing piece is Zion Young. He got two starts and eight appearances as a freshman last year so his continued development is something to keep an eye on.
Other options include DT Simeon Barrow Jr. He enters his fourth year on the roster and has routinely cracked the rotation, perhaps this is his time to break out. Maverick Hanson has five starts and 31 appearances in his career. Derrick Harmon also has 16 appearances in his career.
All this experience is joined by Texas A&M transfer Tunmise Adeleye. A former five-star recruit, Adeleye was used sparingly in his only season with the Aggies. He was a top-20 transfer and has three years of eligibility now with the Spartans. Like I said, there are a lot of options for MSU.
The one place not too exciting is the secondary. It was a sieve last year. The four projected starters all have talent but it is inexperienced. I also don’t know if I trust Hazelton to put them in a position to succeed. After last year’s dismal performance, I was stunned Tucker kept him on staff. It is a very real possibility that MSU will have one of the better front sevens in the league, yet rank as one of the worst passing defenses if things don’t come together for this unit.
Rounding things out we come to special teams. MSU used three kickers last year and managed to go just 6-for-12 on field goal attempts. Gross. North Carolina transfer Jonathan Kim should be able to win the job but in his career at UNC he is 3/3 in PATs and 0/1 in field goals so it’s not exactly like he is a proven commodity. The punter will also be new as Bryce Barringer – a Ray Guy finalist – graduated.
2023 Schedule:
Central Michigan:
- Best Case: Chips struggled last year going just 4-8. 1-0
- Worst Case: Barring Noah Kim being a complete and utter disaster, the Spartans should win this one. 1-0
- Prediction: With the sturdy OL, MSU should be able to run all over the Chips if the passing game is still a work in progress. W, 42-17, 1-0 (0-0)
Richmond:
- BC: The Spiders are a solid FCS program and won nine games last year but lost to a struggling Virginia team last fall. 2-0
- WC: That Virginia game was a 34-17 final so maybe Richmond hangs around a bit. 2-0
- P: With that MSU offensive line paving the way, Spartans take care of this FCS foe. W, 45-10, 2-0 (0-0)
Washington:
- BC: One of the best passing attacks versus a suspect pass defense. Hmm, that ain’t good. 2-1
- WC: Over at halftime. 2-1
- P: Sometimes west coast teams traveling east have a hiccup but I don’t see it in this one. Perhaps MSU hangs for a bit but Washington is way too talented. L, 38-14, 2-1 (0-0)
Maryland:
- BC: Sparty gets back on track in their league opener thanks to their DL getting a ton of pressure against Maryland’s OL. 3-1
- WC: The pass defense bugaboo strikes for a second week. 2-2
- P: This may be a gross oversimplification but I see a very experienced quarterback squaring off against a very inexperienced secondary. Terps prevail. L, 28-24, 2-2 (0-1)
At Iowa:
- BC: Iowa’s offense remains awful. Sparty picks up a monster road win. 4-1
- WC: Iowa’s dominating defense swallows up MSU’s attack. 2-3
- P: With Brian Ferentz calling plays nothing is guaranteed but Iowa is the more talented team. Have to honor that. L, 21-14, 2-3 (0-2)
At Rutgers:
- BC: RU’s offense is as bad as last year. Easy win. 5-1
- WC: MSU’s defense is as bad as last year. Annoying loss. 2-4
- P: MSU is the deeper team of the two, especially on both sides of the line. With most things being equal, I’m a sucker for who I like in the trenches. Big road win. W, 27-21, 3-3 (1-2)
Michigan:
- BC: Inexplicably, Sparty wins this rivalry yet again. 6-1
- WC: UM is marching towards a third straight title and they embarrass their in-state foe along the journey. 2-5
- P: Great home crowd keeps this game closer than it should be but the more talented and deeper club pulls away as the game goes on. L, 38-17, 3-4 (1-3)
At Minnesota:
- BC: Hey gents, is MSU a top ten team now? 7-1
- WC: Kim turns out to be a bust and the passing defense is even worse than last year. 2-6
- P: Complete coin-flip on paper for me. I’m taking the Gophers because they have a more proven commodity at quarterback and enjoy the home advantage. L, 24-21, 3-5 (1-4)
Nebraska:
- BC: Hang on, is MSU a title contender now? 8-1
- WC: Mel Tucker’s seat is a raging inferno despite the buy-out. 2-7
- P: Both teams are really similar but I like NU’s defensive secondary talent much more and I’m pretty sure Matt Rhule is the better coach…right? Maybe? Who knows. L, 28-24, 3-6 (1-5)
At Ohio State:
- BC: Noah Kim turns out to be a star and OSU’s quarterback room is a mess. 9-1
- WC: Buckeyes blow ‘em out. 2-8
- P: Obviously OSU is the more talented team and it is in the Shoe. Easy prediction. L, 45-21, 3-7 (1-6)
At Indiana:
- BC: Is this team going to the playoffs, really? 10-1
- WC: Hoosiers have a massive bounceback season and MSU is limping to the finish. 2-9
- P: Spartans are the more complete team at the moment, despite the unknowns I’ve already documented. W, 28-21, 4-7 (2-6)
Penn State:
- BC: Allar turns out to be a bust and Kim the real deal. MSU is off to the title game and perhaps the playoffs. 11-1
- WC: Allar turns out to be the real deal and MSU’s pass defense remains horrible. Staff fired about 15 minutes after this game once they found the funding to buy out Tucker. 2-10
- P: Comes down to talent again. PSU is just more complete right now in August. L, 35-24, 4-8 (2-7)
Wrap Up:
I’ve said this in a few other previews – MSU is the swing team / X-factor outfit of the league. If everything hits, they could repeat 2021’s magical year and be a factor. If nothing hits and the defense remains one of the worst in the nation, they will repeat last year’s disappointment. With several new faces – including the obvious one at quarterback – it is just too hard to buy into MSU just yet.
Their schedule is also a beast. They are one of the teams enjoying five road league games this year and going to Minneapolis and Iowa City won’t be fun. They also travel to the Shoe and in the non-conference host Washington. For them to make a bowl they have to win the four games I’ve predicted and then flip some combo of Nebraska (doable), Maryland (doable), Minnesota (doable), and Iowa (slight chance with their OC).
I’m not saying this team can’t go bowling, but I’m skeptical with Hazelton still calling defensive plays and – broken record alert – the unknown status of Kim as a starter. Add those concerns with this schedule, I think four to six wins is a realistic prediction for the old Green and White.
Big Ten and Counting 