Next up in our series after Northwestern, Rutgers, and Indiana, is our second and final NU – Nebraska. 2022 was not a year too many Husker fans were expecting to be memorable. After all, Scott Frost was entering with a woeful 15-29 (10-25) mark. There were some talented pieces but the behind-the-scenes rumors were not encouraging. Frost was accused of overseeing a chaotic, ill prepared, and poorly coached team. If those rumors were true, surely 2022 would be more of the same.
Doomsdayers were proved right – NU started 1-2 and fired Frost. Mickey Joseph oversaw the final nine games and all told Nebraska went just 4-8 (3-6). Continuing their heartbreaking trend, five of those losses were by single digits. There is so much to unpack about Frost’s horrible tenure but I feel pretty confident in my original analysis of his hiring – he never built anything. He became Oregon’s offensive coordinator when they were already amazing. He coached UCF after Geroge O’Leary already made them a winner – their 0-12 season was because O’Leary wanted to retire and the school basically held him hostage. Frost didn’t know how to build a program from scratch and it showed.
So with Frost out – and Joseph not retained after criminal charges (they were later dropped), Nebraska tapped Matt Rhule to turn things around. Rhule is either a love or loathe character. His obnoxious evangelicalism turns me all the way off, but we are here for football not a religious debate. Rhule has a track record of turning around Temple and Baylor but failed spectacularly in the NFL. The last time he coached in college was 2019 and like so much of our society, post peak pandemic is a whole lot different than pre pandemic. For example, when he last coached, the transfer portal was less than a year old. No one really knew how it worked just yet. NIL also wasn’t a thing. Rhule’s turnarounds also take an adjustment period. His first seasons at Baylor and Temple were a combined 3-21. Long story short, Rhule is a better coach than Frost and should get Nebraska pointed in the right direction again, but I’m not expecting him to do it overnight, especially with a roster low on talent because, among other things he neglected, Frost basically didn’t develop anybody once they got to Lincoln. Uh-oh!
One area Frost neglected was quarterback. After riding the Taylor Martinez train for several seasons, Casey Thompson was brought in as a transfer from Texas for last season. He’s out – off to FAU – so Rhule doesn’t have much wiggle room on who is starting this year. Jeff Sims, a Georgia Tech transfer, is the odds on favorite to be QB1. He is a nice dual threat option but was fairly limited as a passer during his three years as the Yellow Jacket starter. His 30 TDs to 23 INTs and career sub 60% completion percentage aren’t exactly screaming elite quarterback play.
The good thing is new OC Marcus Satterfield wants to play at a more deliberate pace, including huddling between plays, as well as bring the fullback back to Nebraska. That’s good news for running back Anthony Grant. He had over 900 yards last year and with more packages featuring a lead blocker, he could be able to build on his numbers last year. Grant isn’t the only skill player of note. Second leading receiver Marcus Washington (471 yards) and tight end Thomas Fidone II (top 40 recruit, injured last year) hope to provide some pop in the passing game.
Unfortunately an offensive line that gave up 33 sacks last year remains an area of concern. LT Teddy Prochazka has battled injuries but if he can stay on the field, that’s something to build around. ASU transfer Ben Scott should be a worthy addition at center. Unfortunately the rest of the line are role players who really haven’t found a home at just one position on the line and have rotated in and out as needed. Sims should be fast enough to prevent some sacks so I’m not expecting 33 again, but in 2021 NU gave up 29 sacks. Erratic OL play was a staple of the Frost regime and I’m not sure that can be cleaned up in one offseason.
If the OL didn’t concern you, perhaps the issues on the defensive side of the line will. DC Tony White wants to run a 3-3-5 but also have a “havoc” style where the team will switch to 4-3-5, a more standard 4-3, or even a 3-4 look as needed. If this sounds confusing, think about how the brand new DL feels. The best talent from last year bolted to the pros. With just one veteran nose tackle, Ty Robinson, trying to anchor things, this unit feels like the great unknown heading into the season.
Things are much more settled at linebacker. Leading tackler Luke Reimer returns as does Nick Heinrich. Heinrich started every game back in 2021 alongside Reimer but injuries derailed his 2022 campaign. Finding the third starter shouldn’t be too hard with such a solid 1-2 punch already atop the depth chart.
As for the secondary, this is a deep unit despite the recent headlines. In case you missed it, second leading tackler Myles Farmer left the program in recent weeks. Nickel Isaac Gifford was a really good player last year and his return takes on an even bigger role with Farmer’s departure. Farmer was suspended indefinitely by coach Rhule back on 7/31 but utilizing the grad transfer rule, Farmer was essentially a free agent and left for Syracuse. Also at that fateful 7/31 press conference was receiver Joshua Flecks being sent home and suspended until he was in better physical shape. All in all it feels like Matt Rhule is changing the culture at Nebraska via suspensions, but time will tell if this draconian hand will work.
Despite Farmer’s departure, there are still four starters in the secondary. The aforementioned Gifford, Quinton Newsome – a 2022 honorable mention All Big Ten, Marques Buford Jr – who was having a really strong campaign last year before getting hurt late in the year versus Wisconsin, and Malcolm Hartzog – who started eight games as a true freshman last year. Losing Farmer definitely hurts, but there is plenty of experience here to work with.
As for the special teams, it will be pretty new. Freshman Tristan Alvano takes over place kicking duties and a transfer from Virginia, Billy Kemp IV looks to bring some zip to a return unit that was a non-factor last year. How much of a non-factor? Well Nebraska returned just five punts in 2022.
2023 Schedule:
At Minnesota:
- Best Case: The Gophers were one of the most experienced teams last year. Lots of those pieces are gone for this year. 1-0
- Worst Case: Would it be cruel to start with a one-score loss after enduring so many narrow losses under Frost? 0-1
- Prediction: Gophers are the home team and have the better quarterback. Simple recipe for a win. L, 27-17, 0-1 (0-1)
At Colorado:
- BC: Coach Prime is all sizzle and no steak. 2-0
- WC: With 800 transfers coming in, the Buffs find enough talent to win this one. 0-2
- P: I have zero clue how the coach Prime experience will go in Boulder but I have a hard time believing a team with that many new faces can come together in just one offseason. W, 31-21, 1-1 (0-1)
Northern Illinois:
- BC: Statement win in Rhule’s Lincoln debut. 3-0
- WC: With Rocky Lombardi healthy again, NIU is going to be much improved, but I don’t see how Rhule and his team won’t be hungry in their first home game. 1-2
- P: NIU has the chops to give the Huskers a little bit of a game, but the home team prevails after pulling away in the second half. W, 35-17, 2-1 (0-1)
Louisiana Tech:
- BC: This squad was basically C-USA Nebraska last year, losing seemingly every game in overtime or by a single score. 4-0
- WC: In Tech’s two games versus power five teams last year they went 0-2 and were outscored 100-44. 2-2
- P: I expect both teams to be better this year than last. That’s not good news for Tech fans for this particular match-up though. W, 42-21, 3-1 (0-1)
Michigan:
- BC: Tough to see NU’s new look DL playing well enough to slow down that Michigan ground attack. 4-1
- WC: Down four or more touchdowns at half. 2-3
- P: Michigan is way more complete a team right now in mid August than Nebraska. L, 45-17, 3-2 (0-2)
At Illinois:
- BC: The Illini lost their DC, QB, and RB among other pieces. 5-1
- WC: They also have a proven system and a solid head coach. 2-4
- P: I know the cogs in Illinois will be different, but the overall philosophy of ground and pound will not. That bodes well for the home team versus Nebraska’s defense. L, 28-21, 3-3 (0-3)
Northwestern:
- BC: The Cats are an absolute mess this year after the Fitz fiasco. 6-1
- WC: Northwestern does have some talent…just unclear if they have the coaches to harness it. 2-5
- P: With the edge at QB and a comparable starting lineup, Northwestern hangs around but the Huskers escape. W, 24-21, 4-3 (1-3)
Purdue:
- BC: Tons of new faces on Purdue as well. 7-1
- WC: Purdue has the edge at quarterback, unless Sims has really improved as a passer this offseason. 2-6
- P: Game feels like a coin-flip. I’m not particularly high on Purdue, personally but they have enough talent to win this game and I don’t think Purdue goes oh-for in the league so I need them to win a game somewhere…let’s make it here. Terrible reasoning, I know. L, 28-24, 4-4 (1-4)
At Michigan State:
- BC: Uh, folks, is NU a threat to win the west? 8-1
- WC: Sparty feels like they have the biggest variance of could be good, could be awful. Maybe NU catches them in a good season. 2-7
- P: The blogger giveth and taketh away…I gave the Purdue game to Purdue but I’m taking the MSU game for Nebraska. The reason is I think NU has the talent to split these two games but probably not to win them both. W, 28-24, 5-4 (2-4)
Maryland:
- BC: Huskers take full advantage of their first 10 games all being manageable (outside the Michigan game). 9-1
- WC: Issues in the trenches and at QB make this season pretty dismal. 2-8
- P: Big edge at QB for the Terps in this one. I think Maryland is just a pinch more complete of a team right now. L, 31-21, 5-5 (3-5)
At Wisconsin:
- BC: Badgers are a popular pick to win the division but they have a TON of new faces and are trying a radically different offense this year. There’s a possibility for a big learning curve. 10-1
- WC: Or UW lives up to the hype and creams Nebraska’s corn. 2-9
- P: Taking the more talented team at home. How original. L, 28-17, 5-6 (3-6)
Iowa:
- BC: Hawkeyes are also a popular pick to win the division but also have some new faces, although they have the same one at OC. Is Nebraska a game away from the CFP? How did that happen? 11-1
- WC: Iowa lives up to the hype and pops Nebraska’s corn. 2-10
- P: Vast improvement over the Frost era but issues in the trenches, at quarterback, and overall depth leave this team just outside a bowl. L, 20-13, 5-7 (3-7)
Wrap Up:
There is a lot to like about this Nebraska team – the running back group, the receiver room, the secondary, and the linebacker tandem. Those core elements can and will win games for Nebraska. They might even get them into a bowl. The problem is Nebraska isn’t there yet on the lines. Subpar OL and DL play makes me nervous against running oriented teams like Michigan and Illinois. Lastly, the quarterback. I know Sims is experienced in his time at Georgia Tech but the numbers don’t make me confident in NU having enough in that position to truly compete.
Now, I could very well be dead wrong about all this. As you may have noticed, this schedule is very favorable. When your toughest non-conference game is at Colorado, you should take advantage. Yes they get Michigan as a crossover but they avoid pairing UM with Penn State or Ohio State, instead getting Michigan State (winnable) and Maryland (harder than MSU but not a juggernaut). By Matt Rhule merely being competent rather than Scott Frost’s ineptitude, Nebraska might close the deal on games they didn’t under Frost and get to six, seven, maybe even eight wins. It wouldn’t be a stretch with that schedule.
Big Ten and Counting 