Last week we tackled Northwestern and Rutgers in this series. We kick off this week with one of my favorite road trips to make, Indiana. Bloomington is a fantastic college town and I love Memorial Stadium. That said, can Indiana turn things around after a 6-18 (2-16) stretch over the last two years? To quote the Magic Eight Ball, the answer is…“Reply hazy, try again.”
What made the last two years such a sour experience was the program was getting better. Tom Allen’s first two years were identical 5-7 (2-7) campaigns but there were signs of improvement like taking Michigan to overtime in 2017 or narrowly knocking off Penn State in 2018. In 2019 IU experienced that breakthrough, going 8-5 (5-4). They followed that up with a stellar 6-2 (6-1) 2020 during the wonky COVID season, but outstanding quarterback Michael Penix Jr got hurt late in that campaign and was rushed back too soon in 2021. That, along with a plethora of other issues led to a dismal 2-10 (0-9) backslide. Last year they improved, barely, going 4-8 (2-7). While this is a gross oversimplification, the fact is when they had a healthy Michael Penix Jr, this team was really good. When he was not healthy – or gone, as in last year following his transfer to Washington – this team wasn’t good. So, do they have a Penix on the roster this year? Uhh, let’s take a look.
Indiana’s quarterback situation was cleared up mightily by the portal this off-season. Connor Bazelak and Jake Tuttle both left the program and coming over from Tennessee is Tayven Jackson. Jackson was a four-star prospect last year when the Vols recruited him but for Jackson it is kind of a homecoming. He is from Indiana and his older brother, Trayce Jackson-Davis, was a standout on the IU basketball team. Neither Bazelak or Tuttle were stellar so getting away from them is at least exciting.
Redshirt freshman Brenden Sorsby has had an extra year of getting to impress head coach Tom Allen and OC Walt Bell. He was no slouch as a three-star recruit last year. If Jackson can live up to his prep hype or Sorsby is developing nicely, IU might not have a Penix-level quarterback just yet but they do have a much better foundation there.
Joining Jackson or Sorsby in the backfield is probably the strength of this unit…a deep and experienced running back group. Although 2022 leading rusher Shaun Shivers graduated, stepping up will be a combo of Josh Henderson, Jaylin Lucas, and touted transfer Christian Turner. Henderson had nearly 400 yards last year and 4 scores. He also has about 150 carries in his career with zero fumbles. He is a factor in the passing game, too, with 24 catches for 274 yards last year.
Lucas managed to get 49 rushes last year as a freshman and put up a little under 300 yards in his limited action. He also reeled in 16 receptions for 82 yards. He is also an outstanding special teams player, but more about that later. Turner has spent his last two years at Wake Forest (2021) and Michigan (2022). In back-to-back seasons he had over 500 yards and found paydirt 16 times. Not to be outdone, he has over 300 carries without a fumble in his career. If I had to guess, I’d imagine the rotation will look a lot like last year: Turner the main back, Henderson a great second option, and Lucas being a factor in certain packages.
So who is doing the blocking for this backfield? Well Indiana had been a real destination for offensive linemen up until the last few years. IU hopes to regain that reputation after hiring Wisconsin’s Bob Bostad to improve that unit. The unit has four returning starters, including the big one, Matthew Bedford. Bedford was honorable All Big Ten and on the Outland watch list back in 2021. His 2022 campaign ended after just one game due to injury. I’m not sure Indiana’s OL will return to being one of the league’s best, but I don’t see it struggling as much as it did last year.
Last, but not least on the offensive side, the receiving group. Last year new OC Walt Bell wanted to run an air-raid look and it failed spectacularly. The QB play wasn’t good enough, the pass blocking was not good enough, and the receiving core lost their best player, Cam Camper, to injury. With Camper back and the continued development of Andison Coby – to go along with the receiving skills of the running backs – the passing game should be improved.
The defense is a little less settled than the offense. Part of that is head coach Tom Allen was the play caller, gave that up, returned to calling plays last year, and then re-gave it up. That back-and-forth smells an awful lot like Jimbo Fisher’s monkeying with Texas A&M’s offense. A classic, too many cooks spoil the broth situation.
In terms of who has to carry out the plays that get called, Indiana isn’t completely devoid of talent, especially thanks to some transfers. Up front we find two of those intriguing portal pickups. Andrew Carter (Western Michigan) racked up 68 tackles (35 solo), 7 sacks, forced 2 fumbles, and even had a pick. Lanell Carter Jr (West Virginia) had a breakthrough season last year posting career highs in all defensive stats, including 4.5 TFLs.
At the next level in the linebacker group we find IU’s best returning defensive player – leading tackler Aaron Casey. He was an honorable mention player last year and looks to continue his impactful play, as highlighted by his 10.5 TFLs last year. Matt Hohlt played in ten games last year as a redshirt freshman, he should join Casey this year as a starter. Stanford transfer Jacob Mangum-Farrar brings with him five years of experience and just finished a solid season out west. He projects to round out the linebacking starters.
On the back end we see, yup, more useful talent. The safety group has the experienced Josh Sanguinetti paired with Phillip Dunnam. Dunnam got a lot of playing time as a true freshman last year while Sanguinetti, a former four-star prospect, continues to develop nicely. I expect solid things from both players for very different reasons: youth vs experience. Noah Pierre is also back. For people that didn’t watch IU last year – or recently – Pierre kind of stalks the field as what IU calls a “husky” position. Basically he’s a flex player between the DB and LB group but also can provide some run support. Anyway, he was pretty good at it last year and will be called upon to do it again this year.
Finally we get to the specialists. If this unit can figure out its placekicker, they could be a great unit. The punter, James Evans, is back. Jaylin Lucas, the running back from earlier, had almost 600 kick return yards and two touchdowns, is obviously back. So the kicker is…well, gone. Charles Campbell transferred to Tennessee. Chris Freeman – who did all the kick-off duties last year – will most likely get first crack at doing the PATs and field goals. Will he keep that job though? Time will tell.
2023 Schedule:
Ohio State:
- Best Case: I suppose the best time to get OSU is the first game when they aren’t used to game speed, right? 0-1
- Worst Case: Nasty way to start the season. 0-1
- Prediction: I do think Indiana will be better than last year’s squad. They just won’t show it week one. L, 42-14, 0-1 (0-1)
Indiana State:
- BC: The Sycamores won just two games last year and Purdue blew them out 66-0. 1-1
- WC: Larry Bird ain’t walking through that door. 1-1
- P: Hoosiers have a nasty schedule this year. They have to take advantage of a game like this. W, 45-7, 1-1 (0-1)
Louisville:
- BC: Get some revenge on Jeff Brohm in his first year at his alma mater. 2-1
- WC: UL won 7 games last year with a coach that…are we sure Scott Satterfield is any good? 1-2
- P: On paper UL is a much better team. But they have a new coach and system and that takes some time. I’m taking the Cardinals but I do think Indiana has a chance in this one. L, 28-24, 1-2 (0-1)
Akron:
- BC: The Zips were a disaster last year winning just twice and losing to Michigan State 52-6. 3-1
- WC: Tough to see Indiana blowing this chance to even their record before the meat of the schedule. 2-2
- P: Some home cooking against an overmatched MAC squad. W, 42-10, 2-2 (0-1)
At Maryland:
- BC: Indiana’s new spark under center has the offense humming. Huge road win. 4-1
- WC: Or the Hoosiers are at the league bottom of pretty much every offensive stat again. 2-3
- P: Terps might not be a heavyweight in the league, but they should win games like this at home. L, 28-21, 2-3 (0-2)
At Michigan:
- BC: Just like the OSU opener, a weight class too big for IU. 4-2
- WC: Completely embarrassed and calls for Tom Allen’s job are picking up steam. 2-4
- P: As you read, IU isn’t some black hole with talent…it’s just not as deep and spread too thin against a team like Michigan. L, 31-13, 2-4 (0-3)
Rutgers:
- BC: RU returns to being a punching bag. 5-2
- WC: IU returns to being a punching bag. 2-5
- P: I really struggled with this game. I like IU’s offense a pinch more than RU’s but I like RU’s defense a pinch more. I guess I’m old school and when stuck, I’ll take the defense I trust more. L, 24-21, 2-5 (0-4)
At Penn State:
- BC: The East is basically Michigan and OSU as 1a and 1b. Penn State comes in at number two. That’s not good for Indiana. 5-3
- WC: Blown out. 2-6
- P: Happy Valley is not an ideal place for IU to try and turn around their season. L, 31-10, 2-6 (0-5)
Wisconsin:
- BC: Despite all the Luke Fickell hype, Wisconsin can’t live up to it. Indiana gets a HUGE home win. 6-3
- WC: Wisconsin steamrolls the Hoosiers on their march for a division title. 2-7
- P: I’m still a believer in Indiana despite all these losses! L, 28-13, 2-7 (0-6)
At Illinois:
- BC: The Illini had a breakthrough season last year. What if they slide back to the pack and it’s Indiana having the breakthrough? 7-3
- WC: And what if Illinois is the real deal again? 2-8
- P: Illinois’s bruising ground game should match up well against Indiana’s decent, but not special defensive line. L, 24-17, 2-8 (0-7)
Michigan State:
- BC: Forget just bowling, would winning this one get Indiana ranked? 8-3
- WC: MSU bounces back from last year’s bizarre season. 2-9
- P: Just like the Rutgers game, I could see this one going either way. I’m officially predicting MSU due to being just a pinch more complete of a team, but the margin feels really thin. L, 28-21, 2-9 (0-8)
At Purdue:
- BC: Ninewindiana comes true! 9-3
- WC: Whole staff is fired about thirty seconds after the game. 2-10
- P: I don’t like this Purdue team very much. Last year was a weird cross section of Iowa and Wisconsin imploding, Minnesota choking, and Purdue overachieving. I think they will be dreadful with all the turnover they’ve had. W, 28-17, 3-9 (1-8)
Wrap Up:
I may not have Indiana winning many games but I am still a believer in Tom Allen. He has proven to be a good coach in 2019 and 2020. Recruiting has gotten better and the level of play has gotten better. This is not a Chris Ash incompetence situation where Rutgers lost before they even took the field. The problem this year is the schedule. It does Indiana zero favors. It was their turn to have five of nine league games on the road. Their crossover games include two tough games with the Badgers and Illini. Their non conference includes a decent Louisville team. In my predicted games you could easily flip the Rutgers and Michigan State games. Flipping Louisville and Maryland wouldn’t be earth-shattering upsets either so despite my predictions, IU should play better than their record indicates. So, no, I wouldn’t fire Tom Allen this year. Things are still trending in a better direction under him than almost any other Indiana coach I’ve seen.
Big Ten and Counting 