Next up in our preview series after the Cardiac Cats, is the birthplace of football – Rutgers. Back in 2020 former coach Greg Schiano was tasked with rebuilding what he had already built once and in that strange year he did a respectable job. 3-6 with three of those losses as single-score games. 2021 saw a two game improvement going 5-7 with an additional one-score loss. They even got to go to a bowl which, hey, worse case scenario just means extra practice time. But cracks were starting to show as they struggled along offensively, mustering just 19.7 points per game, good for 120th nationally.
With expectations for 2022 meager, especially with the questions about the offense still swirling, RU got off to a surprisingly fun start last year: 3-0 with two road wins (Boston College and Temple). Three straight losses where they scored a combined 33 points soured things a bit but they knocked off Indiana, putting them at 4-3 with five to go. Those five games were all losses and boy howdy, did Rutgers get blow-ed up. They were shut out twice in that stretch and their average margin of defeat was 30.8 points. Only a six point loss at struggling Michigan State was even competitive.
The primary reason for the disastrous 2022 campaign was the offense. Now, to be fair to those players and coaches, the defense was only 95th ranked in the nation, but…the offense was down to just 17.4 points per game – 124th out of 131 programs in the FBS. Schiano cleaned some things up on his staff, including canning OC Sean Gleeson and hiring Kirk Ciarrocca, Minnesota’s highly effective coordinator.
Sitting at 12-22 (6-20) in Schiano’s second stint, Rutgers fans want to see some tangible improvements, especially on offense. It should be pointed out that in his first rebuild, Schiano started 12-34 (3-24) before making a bowl in year five, so don’t expect the Knights to go bowling or contend for the division this year, but even with a losing record, they cannot be this pathetic on offense for a third straight year. If they are, then I think Schiano deserves a lot more attention and hot seat talk.
So let’s talk about that offense and who we should be watching this fall. Commanding things should be Gavin Wimsatt. Wimsatt was a four-star prospect and multisport athlete who was used very sparingly back in 2021. Last year he started the final five and it was…not pretty. He was sub 45% on completion percentage but the staff knows his upside and accepted the growing pains last year.
Original 2022 starter, Evan Simon is slated to be an experienced back up, but he lacks the athleticism of Wimsatt. Also troubling is the fact that his numbers are basically the same as Wimsatt’s but he played easier competition. Astute Big Ten fans might remember Noah Verdal, the primary 2021 starter and occasional player last year. He has moved on to coaching, accepting an internship role with Kansas. If Wimsatt or Simon can’t get things going in Ciarrocca’s simplified system – one that made Tanner Morgan look great at times – then just write off RU’s season because Schiano desperately needs his four-star prospect to pan out.
Joining Wimsatt in the backfield is a pretty intriguing trio of backs. Samuel Brown V was putting together a nice freshman campaign – 374 yards and 3 TDs with a 4.3 yards per carry – until an injury ended his season. Kyle Monangai averaged a similar per carry amount last year but got a few more reps due to Brown’s injury so he tallied up 445 yards. He’s also a two time Academic All Big Ten so safe to say he will pick up the new playbook quite well. Finally there is junior Al-Shadee Salaam. He was a solid 3-star local New Jersey recruit and got some reps last year. I’m curious with Ciarrocca’s commitment to running the ball (581 registered runs for UM vs 431 for RU) how this trio will be utilized.
The problem is the receiving room and line isn’t as exciting. The top three wideouts, accounting for over a thousand yards are gone. Two key OL starters are also out of the program. The most exciting player left to highlight is tight end Johnny Langan. While the top 3 wideouts are gone, not the top three leaders in receiving because Langan was third in catches and yards last year. He was even fourth on the team in rushing. Hell, maybe he can play quarterback. He went 2 of 3 for 43 yards and a touchdown, ending with the highest QBR on the team. Langan is a really well rounded player and I fully expect him to build on his 31 catches for 296 for two reasons. One is he’s had additional time with Wimsatt and two, Ciarrocca loves to use the tight end.
The good news is as much as the offense is filled with questions, the defense has a lot of answers. First is the coaching staff: zero turnover. The whole staff for that side of the ball is back, and that includes Greg Schiano who is a defensive mind first and foremost. There is also experience on all three levels of the defense.
Starting with the line, several faces are back including Aaron Lewis. He was a Third Team Big Ten member last year and racked up 55 tackles (18 solo), 1.5 sacks, and an impressive 8 TFLs. Lewis is joined in the pass rush by Wesley Bailey (30 TOT, 18 solo, 3.5 sacks, 8 TFL) who has a real knack for the ball: he recovered three fumbles and defended two passes. On the inside RU welcomes back the experienced senior Mayan Ahanotu (34 games played) and junior Kyonte Hamilton (25 games played). Hamilton has the sexier stats but Ahanotu is a team capitan and unselfishly gobbles up a lot of blockers to let the other three get the stats.
On the next level, Knights fans will be very pleased to see Deion Jennings back. He compiled 91 tackles (48 solo), 8.5 TFL, 1 sack, and held his own in coverage with six pass defenses. Who will join Jennings is an intriguing question. Tyreen Powell is like a 99.99% lock (71 TOT, 33 solo, 6 TFL, 3 sacks, 4 PD) thanks to his strong play last year but the linebacking group is probably the deepest position on the roster. Mohamed Toure played extremely well in 2021 but missed all of last year with injury. Four-star recruit Moses Walker was also injured last season so we haven’t gotten to see a second of this highly touted prospect in action. Like I said, lots of good options.
Finally, the crown jewel of the defense: the secondary. If LB is the deepest group, the defensive back group is the most talented. Max Melton is a shutdown player who has five career interceptions (two last year) and defended 12 passes last season. He’s a sure solo tackler with 23 of them last season and even busted up some plays with two TFLs. Robert Longerbeam will be doing his best to shut down the other side of the field and he has the talent to win his assignment more often than not. Northern Illinois transfer Eric Rodgers and Minnesota transfer Michael Dixon add some much-needed experience.
The biggest problem for RU’s defense is the same issue they faced last year: depth. As you just read there is talent there among the starters. The problem is their back-ups are either inexperienced player-development type recruits entering their second or third years in the system or incoming freshmen. RU’s recruiting class wasn’t a disaster (top 60 nationally) but throwing a bunch of three-stars to the wolves won’t be a recipe for success because we saw that play out last year. When RU’s defense got banged up last year it was awful in the second half of the season.
Last, but certainly not least, the specialists. Outstanding punter (and Ray Guy winner) Adam Korsak is off to the CFL. His replacement is a fellow Australian, Flynn Appleby. Appleby played professional rugby back home and is a sophomore who got to sit and watch Korsak’s outstanding form. Appleby should hold his own. Jude McAtamney is a solid returning kicker. While not the longest leg (0/2 from 50+) he is pretty reliable from inside 50 (12/16 from inside that range). He also hit all but one of his PATs last year. While the RU special teams might not be on that Bill Snyder / Frank Beamer level, they aren’t an anchor dragging this team down either. They’ll do their job and do it well, even if it isn’t going to be super flashy.
2023 Schedule:
Northwestern:
- Best Case: NU has had a bit of an offseason to say the least. RU defends the home turf. 1-0
- Worst Case: RU’s offense lays an egg and the Cats escape with a gritty defensive battle win. 0-1
- Prediction: I think NU might be just a pinch more talented, especially at QB, and with Fitz I would have taken the Wildcats…but not now. W, 21-17, 1-0 (1-0)
Temple:
- BC: The Owls went just 3-9 (1-7) last year. 2-0
- WC: Four of those losses were by a single score, including coming up just short 16-14 against RU last year. 0-2
- P: I love E.J. Warner’s game – just like I loved his dad’s game. Yes, that Warner, Super Bowl champ Kurt. I do think Temple will be better but I also think Rutgers has enough talent to take down a rebuilding AAC team at home. W, 21-14, 2-0 (1-0)
Virginia Tech:
- BC: Hokies had a disastrous 3-8 season that featured wins over just Boston College, Wofford, and Liberty. 3-0
- WC: Tech is sort of like the ACC version of Rutgers. Encouraging signs on defense, lots to work out on offense. Maybe they’ll figure it out and RU won’t. 0-3
- P: Brent Pry looked way over his head last year. This team lost to Old Dominion, a bad Georgia Tech team, and as mentioned, had three weak wins. This is a Big Ten blog so I am going to be a Big Ten homer. Chop that wood! W, 20-17, 3-0 (1-0)
At Michigan:
- BC: A closer game than last year’s 52-17 shelling. 3-1
- WC: A worse game than last year’s 52-17 shelling. 0-4
- P: Michigan is a national title contender for a reason. Keeping it tight for the first half or even three quarters would be a job well done. L, 42-14, 3-1 (1-1)
Wagner:
- BC: RU crushed this team 66-7 a year ago. More of the same this time. 4-1
- WC: Wagner is a rebuilding FCS squad coming off a 1-10 season. 1-4
- P: These opening five games gives RU a wonderful opportunity for a bowl push in the second half of the season. W, 49-10, 4-1 (1-1)
At Wisconsin:
- BC: Badgers are a popular pick to win their division and it’s a road game. Not a good position for RU. 4-2
- WC: Against western contenders Iowa and Minnesota last year, RU went 0-2 and lost by a combined 58-10. 1-5
- P: Rutgers should be more competitive this season, but they aren’t up to pulling off road wins like this just yet. L, 28-14, 4-2 (1-2)
Michigan State:
- BC: Spartans went just 5-7 last year and barely beat Rutgers, 27-21. With RU’s improvements and playing at home, they are able to get a huge win for their bowl push. 5-2
- WC: Injuries mount on the defense and the offense is as bad as they were the last two years. 1-6
- P: MSU is a tough team to predict after last year’s struggles. I mean, does losing a running back really make you that much worse? As a result MSU feels like a strange X-factor. I could see them being a solid 8-9 game winner or faltering against a team like RU. I think the safest thing is to look at the depth of talent. RU’s starters definitely stack up, but MSU is the deeper team. By week six with injuries and bumps along the way, MSU is the safer pick here in a summer prediction. Hell, let’s just say it will be a repeat of last year. L, 27-21, 4-3 (1-3)
At Indiana:
- BC: IU is just 6-18 over the last two years. RU is going bowling, folks! 6-2
- WC: I mean it is a road league game. Those are seldom easy for rebuilding teams like Rutgers. 1-7
- P: Talent to talent, I like RU maybe a pinch more. If they stay healthy by this point in the season, I could see them winning. W, 24-21, 5-3 (2-3)
Ohio State:
- BC: Keep it closer than last year’s 49-10 game. 6-3
- WC: Over by halftime. 1-8
- P: I could see an improved RU team playing a spirited first half at home, but that’s about it. L, 42-7, 5-4 (2-4)
At Iowa:
- BC: The offensively-challenged Hawks one this one 27-10 in New Jersey last year. With Iowa looking even better on paper and the game in Kinnick, I don’t see Rutgers having a great shot in this one. 6-4
- WC: If it all falls apart would Rutgers fire Schiano mid-season? 1-9
- P: With another solid projection at defense, I don’t see RU scoring enough to knock off Iowa. L, 24-7, 5-5 (2-5)
At Penn State:
- BC: After a wretched 55-10 thumping last year, RU keeps it much closer in Happy Valley. 6-5
- WC: The game is even uglier than 55-10. 1-10
- P: Feels like no matter how good or bad Penn State ends up being, they always crush Rutgers…and oh, look, they’ve won 16 straight in the series. L, 38-10, 5-6 (2-6)
Maryland:
- BC: The Terps are all banged up and having a miserable year. RU locks up a winning record. 7-5
- WC: Maryland is cruising with like 8+ wins and has another big win in this series. 1-11
- P: Maryland won this game no problem last year, 37-0. With them projecting to be as good, if not better, this year, tough to see RU winning this one. L, 35-10, 5-7 (2-7)
Wrap Up:
Another losing record, womp-womp, so easy to hate on the Knights…but actually, I think I’m being pretty generous. I predicted five wins and two league wins, both an improvement over last year. My predicted scores are also much closer than last year. I do think Rutgers is slowly improving. The problem for me predicting a breakthrough season is twofold: first, as I hit on a fair amount before the schedule, I don’t love the lack of depth this team has and second, the quarterback part of things. Gavin Wimsatt completed just 44.8% of his passes last year. Even if he has a massive jump in accuracy thanks to improvements in his form and coaching, what is a realistic jump? 10%? That puts him at 54.8% which is still less than the 2022 mark of Indiana’s Connor Bazelak or Iowa’s Spencer Petras…that isn’t great company. So yeah, I think RU will be better, but bowling? Eh, I just don’t see it unless Wimsatt’s leap is astronomical and this team avoids the injury bug.
Big Ten and Counting 