Welcome back dear readers, it is late July which means football is just around the corner. As a reminder, I do these previews in order of last year’s finish which means we kick off with…Northwestern, who was not shaping up to be that good of a team to start with but then like the dam bursting during Watergate, there are new allegations each and every day surrounding this athletic department meaning 2023 will probably be a nightmare. Just a reminder, these Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction posts work by summarizing last year, highlighting a few things about the offense, defense, special teams, and then going game by game saying the best case season, the worst case season, and then what I’m predicting.
Coming into 2022 Northwestern was in a weird spot. They made the title game in COVID-altered 2020 but then their stellar defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz retired after that season and life without him took a turn as the ‘Cats went just 3-9 in 2021. Expectations were meager for 2022 as the offense didn’t have much bite to it and, unfortunately for NU fans, the squad lived up to the downward trajectory going just 1-11 and, hilariously, 0-11 on American soil as the lone victory was in Ireland over Nebraska.
Entering this offseason, for the first time in his long career as a player and coach, Pat Fitzgerald had a little heat on him after a disastrous 4-20 two year period. Not a lot of heat mind you, since he was a legend to the program, but a little. This post then would get into how Fitz, despite being middle aged, was trending towards being an old man yelling at clouds related to technology and their offense was stuck in about 2005 land, except…hazing allegations derailed that angle for this post.
As I’m sure all of you have seen and heard by now, the Northwestern football program quickly unraveled with a massive hazing allegation. What started out as a two week suspension for Fitz – curiously announced on a news dump Friday – soon spiraled. I’ll be honest, as soon as I saw the suspension I was dubious that the two weeks would be the end of it. I still remember former Illinois coach Tim Beck being initially disciplined and soon after fired in wake of misconduct over the medical treatment of players. Very quickly word of the hazing allegations were made public and the university president, Michael Schill, essentially said that the suspension probably wasn’t enough and would re-evaluate. Soon after that final word was made: Pat Fitzgerald was fired.
This was stunning for a few reasons: first, as bad as the allegations are – and make no mistake they are monstrous – they were still allegations. The university could have lengthened his suspension, played the “we are pending the investigation” game, or pawn it off on a scapegoat. In the first few days, Fitz did try the “I didn’t know what was happening” game but by then too much damage was done, had NU wanted to keep him they should have played that card sooner. Another ignored option was to hunker down and say screw it, this guy is a legend to us.
A second reason the firing was stunning is just how close to the season it went down. The last time I remember something like this happening so close to the season was back with that Tim Beck example. It takes something massively severe for a big-time athletic department to willingly tank a season.
The final reason it was stunning to me is the severity of the alleged scandal because the baseball coach has been fired, former AD and current ACC commissioner James Phillips is facing heat, the volleyball team has some allegations, the university is being sued, and more. When Rutgers basketball coach Mike Rice was fired for player abuse it was just him and the basketball team, not a full athletic department scandal.
So here we sit, Fitz is out and weighing his legal options to sue his alma mater and defensive coordinator David Braun is the interim head coach. He got the gig because he was hired to be the DC earlier this year so is not believed to be wrapped up in the unfolding scandal. Due to the proximity to the season, NU’s other coaches have been retained but one assumes they will almost all be jettisoned the second the season ends. Some future recruits have already decommitted, some players have hit the portal, and of course NU is coming off a truly awful 1-11 season.
Here’s the thing though, had NONE of the hazing allegations happened, you could paint a rosy picture about 2023 by saying that NU was 0-5 in single score games last year and that with better luck they could turn this season around. NU was also done in by a wretched offense, averaging just 13.8 points per game (128th in the nation), if they could just produce 24 points per game and hit that average in all their losses, they would have won four more games last year. But all that feel like a moot point now because they have a interim who has never been a head coach, who doesn’t really know any of the players, and he is working with a staff that is most likely on borrowed time – what incentive do they have for giving it their all when they will be fired in a few months? Would you work your hardest? I know I wouldn’t.
So, with all that out of the way, what exactly does Northwestern have in the way of player personnel? [Author’s note: there could be more transfers at any moment so don’t take this passage as gospel] At Quarterback NU welcomes in Cincinnati transfer Ben Bryant. He started 11 games last year before getting hurt and was excellent for the Bearcats. Behind him will be returning starter Brendan Sullivan who came in midseason due to injury and ineptitude from the other quarterbacks. He did alright as a freshman despite being put in a horrible position, so if Bryant decides to repack his bags, Sullivan starting again isn’t the end of the world. Former starter Ryan Hillinski is also still on the roster, though between his demotion and the portal being opened after Fitz’s firing, who knows if he would want to stay.
Skill position should also be okay thanks to some transfers. AJ Henning (Michigan) showed flashes in 2021 as both a receiver and a rusher but had a harder time cracking the rotation in a deep WR room in 2022. He does have two special teams touchdowns in his career so if NU puts him back there for kicks or punts, he would be a weapon in that phase. Cam Johnson (Arizona State) also brings tons of experience – four years at Vanderbilt, transferred to Arizona State last year, then COVID year for Northwestern. His best days were back in 2020 when he had 56 catches for 545 yards and 3 TDs for the Commodores but having that much football knowledge will make him an asset.
Running back Cam Porter will now get to shine after spending the last few years behind the outstanding Evan Hull and battling injury. Even in limited action, Porter showed flashes with over 600 yards and 7 touchdowns the last two seasons.
Even the line isn’t devoid of talent. There is some experience back – chiefly Zachary Franks (9 appearances last year) and four-star recruit Caleb Tiernan looking poised for a bigger role now in his RS sophomore year. According to the NU roster, he has bulked up to 325 after coming to Evanston at just 280. If he can live up to his prep accolades, he gives NU a great blocker on this unit to go along with Franks’ experience.
The biggest issue about the offensive unit is the schematics. Fitz, always loyal to a fault, kept OC Mike Bajakian on staff. His first year was 2020 which, yeah NU was good that year, but not because of their offense and then they were bad offensively in 2021 and finally among the worst in the whole nation in 2022. This guy probably should have been canned, after all it is very rare to survive two down seasons as a coordinator, but he wasn’t. Now with Fitz being fired so close to the start of the season, Braun is stuck with this OC.
Defensively NU is kind of a one-man show. LB Bryce Ghallager has 190 tackles (solo + assisted) combined over the last two years and will go down as another great NU linebacker. One man does not make a unit though so he needs some help. Fellow LB Xander Mueller burst on the scene last year as a sophomore. His freshman season saw limited action so his emergence was definitely a pleasant surprise for NU fans.
The secondary should be reliable, if not spectacular, this year. CB Garrett Hollins Jr. is back after an injury shortened 2022 and some portal pickups will add to the depth of this unit. While at North Dakota State Braun used a 4-2-5 look, so if that is employed again here at NU, that back end will need plenty of depth if they are rolling out five guys most plays.
The biggest defensive issue is up front. They were the worst Big Ten rush defense a year ago and their best player is now in the NFL, so…uh-oh. They are undersized compared to most power five programs and some portal additions will be called upon right away. Realistically, just not being dead last in rush defense again would be a nice step up for the defense as a whole, not just along the line.
Speaking about being last in stuff, the Wildcat special teams was last in a bunch of things last year. Last in net punting, last in kick returns, last in punt returns. As mentioned, Michigan transfer AJ Henning can address some of the return issues but returning kicker Jack Olson and punter Luke Akers hopefully have put in a fair amount of work with their teammates this offseason to get the kicking game going.
Finally, turnovers. Obviously turnover margin impacts all teams but for a program like Northwestern which has less depth and fewer high recruits than, say, Michigan, turnover margin is really critical. When Northwestern is competing for the division, their turnover margin is a huge factor. In 2020 they were 11th in the nation in takeaways and had a positive turnover margin. Last year they were dead last nationally with a wretched -19 margin. The offense was sloppy with the ball and the defense couldn’t muster many takeaways. This has got to get improved if NU’s overall record changes any.
2023 Schedule:
At Rutgers:
- Best Case: RU had a ton of offensive issues last year, too. Cats win a defensive struggle. 1-0
- Worst Case: Rutgers started the year 3-0 before it all fell apart, maybe they have another hot start. 0-1
- Prediction: This one is really tough. I think without the drama and Fitz coaching, I’d be inclined to lean towards NU but with it being Braun’s first game as head coach and Greg Schiano having way more experience, I’m leaning towards Rutgers. L, 21-17, 0-1 (0-1)
UTEP:
- BC: The Miners went just 5-7 last year and their head coach is 17-40 at the school. 2-0
- WC: UTEP has one of C-USA’s best OLs and NU’s weakness is along the DL. Hmm, 0-2
- P: NU lost to Southern Illinois and Miami (OH) last year. UTEP is as good as those teams, right? L, 24-21, 0-2 (0-1)
At Duke:
- BC: Duke went bowling last year and looks to have the real deal in coach Mike Elko. 2-1
- WC: A lot to a little. 0-3
- P: Duke won nine games a year ago but what’s crazy is they weren’t that far away from undefeated. Their most lopsided loss was by just eight points. They also had a narrow OT loss. This team was clicking like mad last year. L, 35-14, 0-3 (0-1)
Minnesota:
- BC: With Tanner Morgan gone, NU has the more experienced QB in this game. Cats show some grit and bounce back. 3-1
- WC: Gophers are 18-8 the last two seasons thanks to taking care of business against weaker Big Ten foes. 0-4
- P: Gophers were my pick to win the division last year as they were extremely experienced. They won’t have that advantage this year but they are more talented than this Northwestern squad. L, 28-17, 0-4 (0-2)
Penn State:
- BC: Pretty big talent gap in this one as Penn State is one of those squads on level two – just behind Michigan and Ohio State. 3-2
- WC: Outside of being a home game so NU gets to enjoy their usual home routine, tough to see anything they have as even a slight advantage in for this game. 0-5
- P: Pretty gnarly first half of the season with two road trips, three league games, and hosting this Nittany Lion squad. L, 35-10, 0-5 (0-3)
Howard:
- BC: Howard hasn’t had a winning season since 2017. 4-2
- WC: Although Howard was improved last year going 5-6, they struggled mightily outside of MEAC play, even losing to South Florida by three touchdowns. 1-5
- P: Assuming there isn’t a mass exodus of the key players mentioned above, this team won’t go winless. At least they shouldn’t go winless. W, 42-17, 1-5 (0-3)
At Nebraska:
- BC: Although Northwestern’s timeline is much different, these two programs are in slightly similar boats – lots of new faces including the head coach. 5-2
- WC: Huskers are at home and their coaching staff has been in place much longer. 1-6
- P: These two teams are really close right now as Scott Frost basically didn’t recruit so Matt Rhule has a fairly sizable rebuild on his hand but it is in Lincoln so I’ll give the Huskers the edge there. L, 24-21, 1-6 (0-4)
Maryland:
- BC: UM went 8-5 last year but it was tight, having one-score wins over SMU, Indiana, and Northwestern. Cats start the negotiations for hiring Bruan full time. 6-2
- WC: UM has a lot of key returning talent. 1-7
- P: I see Maryland as a squad that could be a lot like Minnesota. Reliably winning against the bottom-end of the league and routinely making bowls, even if they don’t quite jump into that next level just yet. L, 31-21, 1-7 (0-5)
Iowa:
- BC: Hawkeye offense is DREADFUL yet again and thanks to an emotional boost playing at Wrigley Field, the stunning Cats stay hot. 7-2
- WC: Iowa is a contender in the final year of the wild west division while Northwestern…isn’t. 1-8
- P: Despite Brian Ferentz still calling plays, Iowa has some more weapons on that side of the ball than last year. L, 24-7, 1-8 (0-6)
At Wisconsin:
- BC: Badgers are the popular pick to win the division, tough to see Northwestern stealing this game in Madison, 7-3
- WC: Badgers feast in a blowout. 1-9
- P: Yet another first year coach that has had way, way more time with his players. L, 28-10, 1-9 (0-7)
Purdue:
- BC: Albeit a small sample, the bowl game without Brohm, et al went HORRIBLY wrong. 8-3
- WC: NU has the 120+ ranked offense again. 1-10
- P: I literally have no clue what Purdue will look like post-Brohm. I’m not overly optimistic. Giving NU the home win on senior day, why not? W, 24-21, 2-9 (1-7)
At Illinois:
- BC: The Illini had a damn fine season last year winning eight games and contending for the division. They look to build on that this year. 8-4
- WC: Well, the damage is done, let the rebuild start. 1-11
- P: UI’s superior offensive line going against NU’s undersized defensive line has me picking the Illini. L, 27-17, 2-10 (1-8)
Wrap Up:
When Jim Tressel was forced out and Luke Fickell was thrust into the interim role, Ohio State went just 6-7 and that was an incredibly talented team. I bring this up to demonstrate that late coaching changes cause massive upheavals. Well, Northwestern has a late coaching change but is also losing players to the portal, impacting their depth and will navigate the season with a coaching staff that probably doesn’t want to be there any more and an interim head coach who has never had the head job before. This is setting the Cats up for failure. Remember, even with Fitz and none of the allegations, this team was considered one of the least talented squads in the league and are coming off a 1-11 season. So, no, I’m not expecting much at all from Northwestern this fall.
Big Ten and Counting 