For a second straight season Michigan won the Big Ten title game and is off to the final four. Unlike last year they come not as a lower seed hoping for an upset of mighty Georgia, but as the two seed – expecting to knock off TCU and get to the title game. Obviously the Horned Frogs are an incredible story and with their highly explosive offense are more than capable of pulling off the upset, its just Michigan is presumed (and Vegas agrees) to be better. Mmm, talk about bulletin board material!
How did Michigan get here?
I’m not sure which win clinched it…knocking off Ohio State OR the Big Ten Title Game…but both were needed. Obviously going a flawless 13-0 wasn’t a prerequisite to get to the CFP but it did grantee it. Personally, much like TCU, I believe Michigan would have gotten in had Purdue upset them in Indy. Michigan won those 13 games by having a killer defense and a bruising running game. Quarterback JJ McCarthy is also an athletic playmaker who can hurt you with his feet, but also stepped up big time against Ohio State to keep the undefeated season going.
How did TCU get here?
Coming out of nowhere. After going 5-7 last year and firing hall of famer Gary Paterson – side note, I believe the marriage had gone stale and it was time for TCU to move on but I’m equally sure all parties wanted it to be a bit more smooth than a midseason firing – TCU turned to Sonny Dykes. This guy is a Texas legend with successful runs in a whole lot of roles including as SMU’s coach. He is also the son of Texas Tech’s solid coach of the 1980s and 1990s, Spike Dykes. Still, TCU was expected by the media to finish seventh in the Big 12. After starting out 3-0, TCU made quite a splash by dropping 55 on Oklahoma. OU proved to be a pretty mediocre team this year but at the time the 31 point beatdown was attention-getting. After that, TCU took down undefeated Kansas on ESPN Gameday, upset then top ten Oklahoma State, survived scrappy Kansas State (more about them in a bit), had back-to-back 10 point wins over West Virginia and Texas Tech, took down Texas in a second Gameday appearance, won at Baylor in an absolute instant classic crazy finale by running their field goal unit onto the field as time expired and kicking the game winner, and finally stomped Iowa State into the ground to go 12-0. Despite the unblemished mark there were doubters. Could they get in if they lost the Big 12 Title game? Would their loss open the door for Alabama or Ohio State? Well USC helped out by losing to Utah and even though TCU got upset by Kansas State in the rematch, it was an overtime thriller. Kansas State and TCU looked fantastic in that game. With such a 50/50 toss up game, the committee did the right thing and kept TCU in. They had a better record than Ohio State (12-1 vs 11-1) and a much better record than Alabama (12-1 vs 10-2). To keep them out based on an overtime title game while OSU and Alabama stayed home on title week would have been insane.
Why should we watch?
Dueling second half magic! Obviously these are two great teams and a CFP semifinal but I’m actually intrigued about the halftime adjustments. TCU made a living with second half comebacks while Michigan would often take close games at half and turn them into blowouts in the second. The Big Ten title game was a classic example of this. Purdue was hanging around but after halftime it turned into a slaughter.
Who should win…and should you bet?
Michigan’s elite defense has a little side note next to it: Big Ten offenses…including facing Iowa’s. UM hasn’t played someone like TCU this year outside the Ohio State game and despite the lopsided score, OSU still put up 500 yards of offense. Michigan’s punishing running game is going against TCU’s 3-3-5 look. This normally favors the running attack BUT, TCU beat Texas 17-10 in a defensive struggle and held Bijan Robinson to just 29 yards on 12 carries. What Michigan is hanging their hat on, I don’t think is as good as an advantage as people realize. I’ve also watched McCarthy all year…I’m not sure he is it. The Ohio State game is definitely a hit to my argument, I’ll admit. But I’ve seen him make poor reads, have too many gambles throwing it into coverage, I’m just not sure he is mature enough as a passer to win the national title. As a result of most people going the opposite way from what I just laid out, TCU is a 7.5 point underdog. That is pretty attractive. I think Michigan could win – and maybe even should win – but I see it being a very tight game. The even more attractive bet is the over. It is 56. This game will be in perfect conditions in Arizona. TCU basically scores on everyone and as we saw from the OSU game, Michigan’s big play potential is also there. I’m expecting the game in the 30s, take the over for sure…hit up TCU for fun on the spread.
How to watch?
- Date: Saturday, December 31st
- Time: 3:00 pm, central
- TV: ESPN
- Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Random Tidbit:
Both programs have two national titles in the 1930s. Michigan claims the 1932 and 1933 while TCU has claims to the 1935 and 1938 titles. Let’s run through this wild decade as folks dealt with the Great Depression but some fanbases got to see damn good football:
- 1930: Notre Dame and Alabama both lay claims. The Irish went 10-0 and beat Big Ten co-champ Northwestern, a 9-1-1 Army team, and an 8-2 USC team. The Irish did not play in a bowl game that year. Alabama also went 10-0 and took down 9-1 Tennessee, 8-2 Vanderbilt, 7-2-1 Georgia, and shutout Washington State in the Rose Bowl. WSU was 9-0 going into that game and was USC’s other loss. I’m honestly not sure which team is better. Notre Dame has some bias on their side due to southern football not being as respected in 1930, but the Irish’s schedule had more teams above .500 on it. I’m fine with this being split
- 1931: USC and Pitt both have claims. USC lost their opener to Saint Mary’s (an independent who would go 8-2 on the year) but then won out, including taking down Tulane in the Rose Bowl to end up 10-1. Pitt went 8-1 with a loss to Notre Dame, 25-12. What helps Pitt is in their final two games they took down 8-2-1 Army and 8-2 Nebraska by a combined score of 66-0. Most outlets have USC with the title and I tend to agree, Pitt’s one loss was more lopsided than USC’s and Saint Mary’s ended with a better record that year than Notre Dame so USC’s loss was arguably better.
- 1932: Michigan and USC have their mitts on this year. Michigan went 8-0 and won the best conference in football that year, with four teams ranked in the top 11. Strangely, Michigan only played one of those teams, so there are a lot of “transitive victories” for Michigan. USC went 10-0, gave up just 13 points all season, and clobbered Pitt in the Rose Bowl. Most selectors picked USC for the title and I would agree. Sorry Michigan.
- 1933: Undisputed Michigan. Michigan went 7-0-1 in the Big Ten and took down top five Ohio State again. Their tie was to #3 Minnesota. I should note those rankings are from the Dickinson Rankings and not the AP, but no one else claims 1933 so have to keep it with Michigan.
- 1934: Minnesota (eight selectors) and Alabama (five selectors) wrestle over this one. UM went 8-0 but avoided the best teams in the Big Ten. Instead their best win was over 8-1 Pitt who was crowned “eastern champions.” Alabama went 10-0 and beat a solid Tennessee team in the regular season. Alabama also knocked off a very strong 8-1-1 Stanford team in the Rose Bowl but bowls traditionally played no factor. This one comes down to the prestige of eastern and midwestern football. Because Minnesota was the best in the Midwest and beat Pitt, the “eastern champ,” logic of the day dictates that UM is the rightful title holder.
- 1935: Minnesota (seven selectors), SMU (four selectors), TCU (Williamson), and Princeton (Dunkel) all have at least a stake in this crazy season. UM went 8-0 and beat UP ranked Iowa and Northwestern as well as quality opponents in Nebraska and Tulane. SMU went 12-1 and beat 8-2 UCLA and a head-to-head over TCU. Their lone loss was 7-0 to and 8-1 Stanford team in the Rose Bowl. TCU went 12-1 with their lone loss to SMU. Their best win was probably Rice – who SMU also beat – or Baylor – who SMU also beat. TCU’s biggest moment was its 3-2 victory over LSU in the Sugar Bowl. Princeton went 9-0 with their best win over 8-2 Dartmouth. Personally, I think SMU’s argument is the strongest. They beat a fellow contender TCU, took down those solid eight win Baylor and Rice squads, and beat one of the best Pac 12 teams in UCLA. To the voters in 1935, the bowls don’t count, so by that calculus, 12-0 SMU deserves the title over 8-0 Minnesota.
- 1936: Minnesota (AP) and Pitt (various) are duking it out. UM went 7-1 with its lone loss to Big Ten Champion Northwestern. Pitt went 8-1-1 with a loss to ranked Duquesne and a tie to ranked Fordham. The big what if of this season is Northwestern. They were #1 ranked much of the year until a 26-6 loss to Notre Dame in the finale. The Irish were too far off pace to win a national title so it threw things into chaos. Minnesota benefitted the most, going from number one to number two after their loss and then regaining number one in the AP after the Northwestern loss. I have a hard time selected UM as a national title winner when they couldn’t even win their own league but again, the Big Ten bias of the 1930s was very strong so I see why it happened. I think if I were a voter in 1936, I’d lean ever-so-slightly towards Pitt.
- 1937: Undisputed Pitt. The Panthers went 9-0-1 with their tie against a #3 ranked Fordham team. Along the way Pitt knocked off ranked Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Duke. They also beat an eight-win West Virginia team. The voters got it about 95% right. The only teams that might disagree are 10-0-1 Cal and 9-0 Santa Clara. Cal beat several quality opponents including shutting out Stanford in the season finale and then shutting out Alabama in the Rose Bowl. Their tie was against a rock-solid Washington team. Santa Clara beat that same Stanford team, an 11-win San Jose State team and LSU in the Rose Bowl. I do think Pitt was a little better than Cal or Santa Clara but their resumes are really close to Pitt’s so there is that 5% of lingering doubt in my mind.
- 1938: TCU (AP) and Tennessee (various) were both great in ’38. TCU went 11-0 and for a cherry on top knocked off #6 Carnegie Tech in the Sugar Bowl. UT went 11-0 and also had a nice bowl game, taking down #4 Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl. This season had a crazy finish though so let’s rewind things:
- AP Poll Week 1 (released 10/17/1938):
- #7 TCU 4-0 (3 first place votes)
- #8 Tennessee 4-0
- #13 Carnegie Tech 3-0
- #14 Oklahoma 3-0
- Over the next three weeks (10/22, 10/29, 11/5) these four key teams played out like this:
- TCU: blow out Marquette, Baylor, and Tulsa by a combined 81-7
- UT: blow out the Citadel and Chattanooga with a narrow win over LSU in-between. Their wins were by a combined 103-6
- Carnegie Tech: Lost to #5 Notre Dame, beat Akron, upset #1 Pitt. That gets Pitt out of the national title picture
- Oklahoma: won comfortably over Nebraska, Tulsa, and Kansas State
- The AP Poll released 11/7/1938 reflects these changes:
- #1 TCU 7-0 (48)
- #4 Tennessee 7-0 (6)
- #6 Carnegie Tech 5-1
- #10 Oklahoma 6-0 (1)
- 11/12/1938 was a HUGE week for these four teams:
- TCU – beats Texas 28-6 but UT is on track for a 1-8-0 finish so this was a cupcake. Notre Dame would get to face #12 Minnesota and blew them out, 19-0
- Tennessee – won 14-0 at a good Vanderbilt team. UT’s best win of the season was Alabama and they tied Georgia Tech, effectively clinching UT the conference (they pretty much already had, but the tie ended any doubt). Alabama would end 13th in the final poll
- Carnegie backed up their upset by demolishing mediocre Duquesne
- Oklahoma dominated Missouri 21-0, Mizzou would end up a six win team so this would’ve impressed the voters of the era
- A new AP poll was released 11/14/38 and took those games into account:
- #2 TCU 8-0 (19) – The Irish’s big win over well-respected Minnesota gets the Frogs jumped
- #3 Tennessee 8-0 (5)
- #6 Carnegie Tech 6-1
- #7 Oklahoma 7-0 (1)
- 11/19 played out like this: TCU beat Rice 29-7, Tennessee was off, Carnegie was off, Oklahoma beat a solid Iowa State team – they would finish second in the conference. The big one was Notre Dame survived #16 Northwestern to remain #1.
- 11/26 was the final week of the season for some, but not all teams:
- #2 TCU – beat rival SMU 20-7. SMU falls to 6-4 but finished second in the league sot it was still a decent win
- #3 Duke and co #4 Pitt played each other, Duke prevailed…putting them perhaps in the national title conversation
- Co #4 Tennessee routed an awful Kentucky team, 46-0
- #6 Oklahoma beat a terrible Oklahoma A&M (now Oklahoma State) team, 19-0
- #7 Carnegie Tech won at NC State, 14-0
- On 11/28 the second-to-last poll was released. Some of the teams were done, some had a final game the first week of December. Here is how the top ten went down in that penultimate poll:
- #1 Notre Dame – UPSET by #8 USC, 13-0
- #2 TCU – Off
- #3 Duke – Off
- #4 Tennessee – CRUSHED nine-win Ole Miss 47-0. UT would win their final two regular season games by a combined 93-0
- #5 Oklahoma – won at a bad Washington State team, 28-0. OU finished their regular season with three road games and won them all by a combined 57-0. In fact, OU had five straight shutouts to end 1938
- #6 Carnegie Tech – Off
- #7 Pitt – Off
- #8 USC – Upset #1 Notre Dame. USC was out of the title game hunt due to an opening week loss to Alabama and a loss to Washington. They did factor in considerably to the race this year by beating then #3 Cal, #1 Notre Dame, and winning the Rose Bowl – more on that in a second
- #9 Holy Cross – Off, ended the season 8-1 with their lone loss to Carnegie Tech
- #10 Minnesota – Off, ended the season 6-2
- The Final AP poll was then released and had to account for the big upset of the Irish:
- #1 TCU 10-0 (55)
- #2 Tennessee 10-0 (16)
- #3 Duke 9-0 (11)
- #4 Oklahoma 10-0
- #5 Notre Dame 8-1 (4)
- #6 Carnegie Tech 7-1
- #7 USC 8-2 (1)
- #8 Pitt 8-2
- #9 Holy Cross 8-1
- #10 Minnesota 6-2
- TCU is the AP champion as a result. But Tennessee has way more services select them, especially modern historians of the game. The problem is, all through 1938 the real voters kept putting TCU ahead AND they selected TCU’s Davey O’Brien as the Heisman winner. Clearly the AP voters in 1938 thought TCU was the better team. Did they get it right? Maybe not, but the real what-if is, what-if USC doesn’t pull off the upset. Then it is a consensus title for Notre Dame, right? Despite all the love history gives 1938 Tennessee, the fact is both TCU and Tennessee needed USC to win that game. Furthermore, what would history say about Duke if they had not lost the Rose Bowl to USC? What would history say about Oklahoma if they had upset Tennessee? The standards of 1938 were clear, #1 in the AP is the champion and that’s what TCU did. Congrats to them.
- AP Poll Week 1 (released 10/17/1938):
- 1939: Texas A&M (AP) and USC (Dickinson) is another repeat of 1938’s craziness. A&M went 11-0 and beat a nice Santa Clara team in the non-conference and quality Baylor and SMU teams in league. For an added bonus they beat #5 Tulane, 14-13, in the Sugar Bowl. USC went 8-0-2 with a win over an outstanding Oregon State team, a tie against a bad Oregon club in the opener, and a tie against a great UCLA team. They upset #2 Tennessee in the Rose Bowl. What is curious about this season is why the voters turned on Tennessee. The other X-factor will be Cornell. Let’s run through the final weeks of the season:
- In the first poll of the season Pitt is #1, but they will be upset their very next game and actually limp to a 2-4 finish so are a non factor. Cornell is 12th in that first poll, A&M is 9th, USC 7th, and Tennessee 5th
- In the next four polls, Tennessee is #1 with more and more first place votes. Here is the 11/13/1939 poll position for our four key teams:
- #1 Tennessee 7-0 (66)
- #2 Texas A&M 8-0
- #3 USC 5-0-1 (10)
- #4 Cornell 6-0 (3)
- Saturday, 11/18 had these results: UT beat a bad Vanderbilt team, 13-0. A&M beat an awful Rice team at Rice, 19-0, USC had a bye week, and Cornell obliterated above .500 Dartmouth, 35-6. The 11/20 poll though had a strange change:
- #1 Texas A&M 9-0 (38)
- #2 Tennessee 8-0 (33)
- #3 Cornell 7-0 (20)
- #4 USC 5-0-1 (11)
- What happened to Tennessee? Why did they lose half their first place votes? Vandy would end with a better record at 2-7-1 to Rice’s 1-9-1. Did six extra points on the road really sway that many voters? The plot thickens. On 11/25 there were some games. A&M and UT were all off but USC was at #7 Notre Dame and Cornell was at 4-3 Penn. The Trojans won, 20-12 and Cornell dominated, 26-0. A new poll came out 11/27:
- #1 Texas A&M 9-0 (27) – 939 Points
- #1 USC 6-0-1 (25) – 939 Points
- #3 Cornell 8-0 (34) – 909 Points
- #4 Tennessee 8-0 (18) – 871 Points
- Again, Tennessee loses first place votes and poll footing despite being off. What has happened to UT? Another batch of games were played Thursday 11/30 through Saturday 12/2. A&M beat 5-4 Texas, 20-0. USC beat 4-5 Washington, 9-7. Cornell’s season was done. UT won at 6-2 Kentucky, 19-0. UT was the only team on the road and played record-wise the best team. They clearly had the best week. Here is the poll that came out 12/4:
- #1 Texas A&M 10-0 (28) – 763 Points
- #2 Tennessee 9-0 (19) – 741 Points
- #3 USC 7-0-1 (18) – 709 Points
- #4 Cornell 8-0 (15) – 665 Points
- So UT climbs, but not enough to regain their #1 spot from earlier in the season. December 9th was the final week. Most teams were done but UT and USC were in action. UT had a hard-fought win over rival Auburn, 7-0. The Tigers would fall to 5-5-1. USC tied their rival UCLA (6-0-4), 0-0. The final poll of the season looked like this:
- #1 Texas A&M 10-0 (55) – 1091 Points
- #2 Tennessee 10-0 (26) – 970 Points
- #3 USC 7-0-2 (9) – 891 Points
- #4 Cornell 8-0 (16) – 889 Points
- I’m at a complete loss in this poll. USC has by far the worst record, but not a strong enough schedule to make up for it. USC’s best wins are Notre Dame and Oregon State. The Irish were 13th in the final poll and the Beavers were unranked at 9-1-1. Cornell’s best win was Ohio State and Princeton. The Buckeyes were 15th in the final poll and the Tigers were 7-1-0 but unranked. Tennessee’s best win was only the 6-2-1 Kentucky team BUT, they finished undefeated, something USC couldn’t manage. A&M’s best wins were 7-3-0 Baylor and 6-3-1 SMU, neither finished ranked but again, the Aggies were undefeated. Based on this, I don’t know how USC can be third. Cornell is clearly equal to them, won one extra game, and went undefeated and untied. USC should be fourth.
- As for the Texas A&M and Tennessee debate, I see no reason for UT to have been jumped after their Vanderbilt win. What A&M did against Rice wasn’t impressive enough. Why did UT shed voters? Was it because Alabama went 2-2-1 down the stretch, greatly hurting UT’s strength of schedule? That seems unfair. Alabama was 8th in the nation when UT beat them. Their next game was a win over Miss. State (who ended 8-2). Then they tied Kentucky, who we established as a good team. Then they lost 13-0 at Tulane, who were SEC co-champs and went 8-1-1 on the year and were #5 in all the polls. Next up was a loss to Georgia Tech 6-0, Tech would go 8-2 (6-0) and were also co-champs of the SEC. They also won the Orange Bowl. In the finale Alabama crushed Vanderbilt, 39-0. Alabama’s “collapse” wasn’t worthy of penalizing Tennessee. Had I been an AP voter in 1939, I would’ve kept Tennessee on the #1 line all through the games and polls I laid out, had A&M #2 with Cornell a very close #3. As a result I would have given UT the title in 1939 based on how the poll system worked.
- BUT…for fun, we have the bowls. #1 A&M beat #5 Tulane in the Sugar. #2 Tennessee lost to #3 USC in the Rose. Cornell didn’t play a bowl. #6 was Missouri, who lost to Tech in the Orange Bowl so we’ll ignore any odd ball play from a team outside the top 5. When you factor in the bowls, the poll should probably look like A&M, USC / Cornell, Tennessee. So I get why a post-bowl selector might be attracted to USC but A&M had an equally impressive bowl win – maybe more so since it was a home game for Tulane and Tulane was 8-0-1 going into the game – and the Aggies were undefeated and 3 wins better. This is a no brainer after the bowls.
- To recap…before the bowls, Tennessee or A&M. After bowls, A&M no contest.
- P.S. Iowa’s Nile Kinnick won the 1939 Heisman, boo yah!
Big Ten and Counting 