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2022: Week 15 Poll

Welcome to the most difficult poll to get into. Zero poll inertia. Ya win, ya stay the same (mostly). No preseason ranking clouding my judgement. No wild jumps just because of an upset or a fall because of a bye week. It is truly merit based so some fans will be excited while some will cling to the goofballs over at the AP poll.

Real AP Poll:

  1. Georgia (62)
  2. Michigan (1)
  3. TCU
  4. Ohio State
  5. Alabama
  6. Tennessee
  7. Utah
  8. USC – Let’s pause here and imagine this hypothetical tournament. Men of Troy traveling to Athens. Red-hot Utah in Ann Arbor. Two teams that exceeded all expectations dueling in Fort Worth. Two of the bluest of blue bloods squaring off IN COLUMBUS…Alabama in snow, are you kidding me? Can we skip this stupid six team step and just get to an eight or sixteen team playoff??
  9. Penn State
  10. Clemson
  11. Kansas State – In a sixteen team tournament the Wildcats would take their show on the road to Knoxville. Oh man….that would be one hell of a game.
  12. Washington
  13. Florida State
  14. Tulane
  15. Oregon
  16. LSU
  17. Oregon State
  18. UCLA
  19. Notre Dame
  20. South Carolina
  21. Texas
  22. UTSA
  23. Troy
  24. Mississippi State
  25. NC State

Dropped: UCF (22), North Carolina (24)

Receiving Votes: North Carolina, UCF, Cincinnati, Ole Miss, Fresno State, Purdue, South Alabama, Illinois, Boise State, Pitt, Minnesota, James Madison

Josh’s Top 25:

  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. TCU – I’m sorry, an overtime loss to an EXTREMELY GOOD Kansas State team does nothing to doubt my belief in the Frogs as the third best team in the country.
  4. Ohio State
  5. Alabama
  6. Tennessee
  7. Utah
  8. USC – I picked Utah to win the game based on USC’s defense all year. That pick did not disappoint as the Utes triumphed in Vegas.
  9. Penn State
  10. Kansas State
  11. Washington
  12. Oregon State
  13. Oregon
  14. Clemson – I had them 15th in my poll last week. They blew out an unranked and reeling North Carolina team. Not enough to move my needle all that much.
  15. Florida State
  16. Tulane
  17. UCLA
  18. Notre Dame
  19. LSU – Had them 14th last week, five drop fall after getting blown out by the best team in the nation seems fair, no?
  20. UTSA
  21. Texas
  22. South Carolina
  23. NC State
  24. Mississippi State
  25. See Below – Final Verdict

See Below, What the Hell is That?

This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot(s) all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try to state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (bad games could be narrow wins over bad opponents, a blowout loss, or a stunning upset). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.

American Athletic Conference

I had UCF ranked last week but they lost to Tulane in the title game. Had it been close, I probably would’ve kept UCF in but just dropped them, instead they lost by 17, opening the door for a new team to get in at the 11th hour. Despite of the poor title game performance, they are clearly the nominee as they split their season series with the Green Wave and have the head-to-head over Cincinnati.

AAC Nominee: UCF

Atlantic Coast Conference

I already had UNC out and NC State in so the ACC title game didn’t really change that equation. With UNC now well out of the poll, do any of those other 8-4 clubs get in? They are Pitt and Duke. Pitt has won four straight, which is commendebale but before that they were blown out by fringe rankable team UNC and lost to another fringe rankable team, Louisville. That doesn’t sound like a top-25 team. Duke’s resume is even worse with losses to…UNC and Pitt! If I’m not ranking North Carolina, I have no argument for giving Pitt or Duke a look,

ACC Nominee: No One

Big 12 Conference

Texas Tech has seven wins and is above .500 in league play. They are on my radar but I want to see them in their bowl. I’m still a little wishy-washy on deciding between two viewpoints: one is “were they good” and the other is “did they beat the teams they were supposed to along with one nice upset.” Still, nice season by the Red Raiders.

Big 12 Nominee: No One

Big Ten Conference

I nominated no one last week and nothing about the Big Ten title game would change that math.

Big Ten Nominee: No One

Conference USA

If, and this is a big if, Western Kentucky had made the title game (they didn’t) and then upset UTSA (huge hypothetical) I think you could make an argument about two ranked teams from this league. But because none of that happened, we will just stick with the already ranked Meeps.

C-USA Nominee: No One

Independents

In a repeat of last week…no one!

Independent Nominee: No One

Mid-American Conference

Toledo knocked off banged up Ohio to grab the title game. Unfortunately that only got them to 8-5. This league will end the season with no ranked teams. Unless, Toledo wins their bowl and 9-5 is somehow enough to get them in at like 24 or 25.

MAC Nominee: No One

Mountain West Conference

Well Boise was my nominee the last few weeks but then they lost to one of the hottest teams in the nation, Fresno State. Let’s just flip those two around and call it a day.

MWC Nominee: Fresno State

Pac-12 Conference

I already have six teams in, what more do you want from me?! Washington State is on deck but at 7-5 I need to see them in their bowl. Kind of like Texas Tech, are they really good, or just a solid outfit that was above .500, which is commendable, but not worthy of a ranking.

Pac-12 Nominee: No One

Southeastern Conference

I’m happy with the six teams I have ranked from this league. However some prime bowl games could get another team or two into the poll.

SEC Nominee: No One

Sun Belt Conference

Troy was my nominee last week and then roughed up Coastal Carolina in the title game.

Sun Belt Nominee: Troy

Elimination Time:

We have our nominees set. Now we need to do some weeding! The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.

FCS Much?…Three solid teams and all three have FCS wins. This criteria won’t work this week.

Bad Game(s)…Troy’s two losses were the first three weeks of the season. One was to a bowl-bound and top 30 team Ole Miss. The other was by just a few points to up-and-down Appalachian State, can’t knock the Trojans out. Fresno had a four game losing streak when they were facing a wrath of injuries. None of the losses were that bad outside getting blown out at USC – but that’s kind of explainable, and a narrow loss to UConn – but the Huskies made a bowl so it isn’t a deal breaker. UCF has by far the worst loss of the three, Navy, but also have two solid wins with Cincy and Tulane so not sure I can ding them too much just yet.

Final Three

For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.

  • Fresno State
    • BW: at Boise State (MWC title game)
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: Oregon State (by 3)
    • WL: at USC (by 28)
  • Troy
    • BW: at healthy South Alabama (or banged up Coastal in the title game)
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: at Appalachian State (by 4)
    • WL: at Ole Miss (by 18) – these might actually be flipable based on how App State finished and how Ole Miss is a SEC team
  • UCF:
    • BW: at Tulane or Cincinnati
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: Louisville (by 6)
    • WL: Navy (by 3) or Tulane (by 17 in the title game)

So the first thing I notice is that Fresno and UCF have weird cancellations. Fresno beat Boise in the finale, but lost to them by 20 during their four game skid. UCF’s win at Tulane was then undone by the title game loss. I think you need to rate the title game as more impressive, therefore UCF’s best win is knocked off and Fresno’s best win holds up. That obviously favors Fresno over UCF. But what about Troy? They have the best record but probably the worst resume snapshot utilizing BW/WW/BL/WL sampling. These three teams are really splitting hairs. I think I need to add another point of data which I do here at the end of the season sometimes, and that is FBS cumulative records. Note, Fresno’s opponent game total will be higher due to Hawai’i opponents getting an opportunity to play 13 games so the important information is the percentage next to each record.

  • Fresno:
    • Opponents overall: 76-72 (.514)
    • Fresno wins only: 41-57 (.418)
    • Fresno losses only: 35-15 (.700)
  • Troy:
    • Overall: 78-67 (.538)
    • Wins: 64-57 (.529)
    • Losses: 14-10 (.583)
  • UCF:
    • Overall: 76-70 (.521)
    • Wins: 47-50 (.485)
    • Losses: 29-20 (.592)

Well all this number crunching was worth it because we have a clear resume stand-out. Despite the Sun Belt being considered smaller potatoes than the Mountain West or American, the league was solid this year. Troy’s overall opponents’ records were the strongest by quite a bit. More importantly, the teams they beat put together a .529 record, far above UCF’s .485 and miles ahead of Fresno’s .418. Troy will be in the poll.

Final Verdict:

25. Troy

League Breakdown:

6 – Pac 12, SEC
3 – ACC, Big 12, Big Ten
1 – AAC, Conference USA, Independent, Sun Belt

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