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2022: Week 14 Poll

Welcome to the most difficult poll to get into. Zero poll inertia. Ya win, ya stay the same (mostly). No preseason ranking clouding my judgement. No wild jumps just because of an upset or a fall because of a bye week. It is truly merit based so some fans will be excited while some will cling to the goofballs over at the AP poll.

Real AP Poll:

  1. Georgia (58)
  2. Michigan (5)
  3. TCU
  4. USC
  5. Ohio State
  6. Alabama
  7. Tennessee
  8. Penn State
  9. Washington
  10. Clemson
  11. LSU
  12. Utah
  13. Kansas State
  14. Florida State
  15. Oregon
  16. Oregon State – Did I have the Beavers winning…yes. Did I have them winning with an insane comeback and zero passes during said comeback? No.
  17. UCLA
  18. Tulane
  19. Notre Dame
  20. South Carolina
  21. Texas
  22. UCF
  23. UTSA – Meep meep, welcome aboard Roadrunners!
  24. North Carolina
  25. Mississippi State – How much would Ole Miss fans go insane if MSU changed their name to “Ole Miss State”?

Dropped: Ole Miss (20), Cincinnati (21), Coastal Carolina (23)

Receiving Votes: Troy, NC State, Cincinnati, Boise State, Purdue, Ole Miss, South Alabama, Illinois, Coastal Carolina, Pitt, Fresno State, James Madison, Ohio, Minnesota

Josh’s Top 25:

  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. TCU
  4. USC – I struggled with OSU / USC because the Trojan’s one loss was a closer game and the Pac 12 is a deeper league; however, their defense is truly awful. I am picking Utah to win the Pac 12 title game because of that D.
  5. Ohio State
  6. Alabama – Sorry Bama, TCU and USC could both lose and you still won’t make it in.
  7. Tennessee
  8. Utah
  9. Penn State
  10. Washington
  11. Oregon State
  12. Oregon
  13. Kansas State
  14. LSU
  15. Clemson
  16. Florida State
  17. Tulane
  18. UCLA
  19. Notre Dame
  20. UTSA
  21. Texas
  22. -25. See Below – Final Verdict

See Below, What the Hell is That?

This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot(s) all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try to state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (bad games could be narrow wins over bad opponents, a blowout loss, or a stunning upset). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.

American Athletic Conference

Heading into the final week of the season UC, who was kind of safe in my poll, lost at home to Tulane and UCF who had been previously in my poll beat USF. Head-to-head UCF has the win. I think the world of the Bearcats but going 0-2 against the AAC elite and lacking a marquee win, UC feels like a top 35 team, not quite top 25.

AAC Nominee: UCF

Atlantic Coast Conference

The ACC wheel of destiny continues to confound things. I had Louisville sniffing around the poll but they struggled mightily with Kentucky (yet again). UNC was pretty safe in my poll but just lost to rival NC State – who has also been flirting with my poll and ends the year with eight wins. Then you have fellow eight win teams in Pitt and Duke. I have a soft spot for little ‘ol Duke this year but honestly just the two public North Carolina teams have the resume right now to be compared nationally.

ACC Nominees: NC State and North Carolina

Big 12 Conference

Texas was in my poll last week and then took down rival Baylor so they moved up. As for the Big 12 teams under Texas…unfortunately a lot of carnage. I don’t think any of the teams are bad but they are flawed and/or dinged up with a lot of injuries. Watch the Big 12 win a ton of bowl games.

Big 12 Nominee: No one

Big Ten Conference

Iowa flat-lined against Nebraska. Purdue and Illinois won with PU getting to the Big Ten title game. I think if Purdue had beaten Illinois, I would nominate them and they might actually be ranked already but I just don’t think there is enough on PU’s resume to rank them right now.

Big Ten Nominee: No One

Conference USA

UTSA is safely in my poll and even though North Texas and Western Kentucky are having solid seasons, they aren’t solid enough for ranking considerations at this time.

C-USA Nominee: No One

Independents

With three straight losses the 8-4 Liberty really isn’t even on my radar anymore.

Independents Nominee: No One

Mid-American Conference

The Ohio Bobcats winning streak has hit an impressive seven game mark but the last one came with a price. Starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke went down with an injury. If Ohio finds a way to win the MAC without him I’d love to rank them but until I see the boys from Athens without their starting quarterback, they aren’t worthy of ranking just yet.

MAC Nominee: No One

Mountain West Conference

Boise went unblemished in league play and ended the last two months of the season 7-1. Fresno State has ripped off seven straight victories. The two meet in Boise to decide the league championship in what should be a very fun one. Boise was my nominee last week and owns a head-to-head win over Fresno back when the Bulldogs were pretty banged up. I’m not sure Boise’s resume will get them ranked but they are worthy of the chance.

MWC Nominee: Boise State

Pac-12 Conference

All the teams that are ranked won and the one team that needed a win to get into the poll lost. Washington State would be in the poll with an Apple Cup win but UW’s stellar fourth quarter, WSU will have to settle with a solid seven win campaign.

Pac-12 Nominee: No One

Southeastern Conference

I nominated South Carolina a week ago and they followed that up with knocking off rival Clemson. Joining them is the mess that is the state of Mississippi. I had Ole Miss pretty stable in the polls in the low teens but their loss to rival MSU drops them to 8-4 with three losses in a row and four losses in their final five. Their wins against Kentucky and Troy are doing a lot of work but they are all from the first half of the season. On the flip side, MSU has won three of their final four to also get to 8-4. They lacked a truly marquee victory until the Egg Bowl but they won eight games with a crazy schedule: road trips to Baton Rouge, Lexington, Tuscaloosa and Georgia in a crossover game.

SEC Nominees: Mississippi State and South Carolina

Sun Belt Conference:

The McCall injury had me super worried as Coastal just didn’t look the same without him. Against James Madison the wheels fell off and Coastal was obliterated 47-7. Between the injuries and not very good defense all year, Coastal is a solid outfit but just not worthy of a top 25 ranking at the moment. As for Troy, well…I’m not sure they have the resume to get in just yet but they certainly get the nomination.

Sun Belt Nominee: Troy

Elimination Time:

We have our nominees set. Now we need to do some weeding! The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.

FCS Much?…Losers of two-straight the Tar Heels can ill afford more dings to their resume, but they have them. Zero wins over ranked teams AND a FCS boost AND took on Georgia State in the non-con. They’re out. I like this Troy team a lot, but I’m having a hard time shaking their 0-1 power five record, the bottom end of the Fun Belt, and a FCS boost to boot. Go out and win the title game and I’ll reconsider.

Bad Game(s)…Boise State lost by 17 to Oregon State…fair, understandable. They lost by 3 to Boise State…okay, rivalry game. They lost by 17 to UTEP…uhh, harder to explain. Toss in a FCS foe and zero power five wins and zero ranked wins and you have a really nice nine win team without a resume worthy of a ranking right now.

Final Four

For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.

  • Mississippi State
    • BW: at Ole Miss
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: at LSU (by 15)?
    • WL: Georgia (by 26)
  • NC State
    • BW: North Carolina
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: at Clemson (by 10)
    • WL: Boston College (by 1)
  • South Carolina
    • BW: Tennessee or at Clemson
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: None – when they lose, they really lose
    • WL: at Florida (by 32) or Georgia (by 41)
  • UCF
    • BW: at Tulane or Cincinnati
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: Louisville (by 6)
    • WL: Navy (by 3)

One of these teams is not like the others and that is…South Carolina. Despite the wheels coming off in an ugly way in each of their four losses, the fact that they went 7-2 over their final nine and capped the season with back-to-back mega wins puts them easily into the poll. Obviously math says the other three will join them but I just wanted to highlight how head and shoulders the Gamecocks were over their competition. Next for me is weirdly NC State. I know injuries have made for an up-and-down season but despite that they have six wins over bowl-bound teams. MSU and UCF have just three such wins.

So that leaves the Pirate and the Gus Bus. It took until week 12 for MSU to get a win and a performance worthy of a ranking where as UCF has not just one but two really solid wins against the Green Wave and Bearcats. UCF gets the bump and MSU will be 25th.

Final Verdict:

22. South Carolina
23. NC State
24. UCF
25. Mississippi State

League Breakdown:

6 – Pac 12, SEC
3 – ACC, Big 12, Big Ten
2 – AAC
1 – Conference USA, Independent

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