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2022: Week 13 Poll

Welcome to the most difficult poll to get into. Zero poll inertia. Ya win, ya stay the same (mostly). No preseason ranking clouding my judgement. No wild jumps just because of an upset or a fall because of a bye week. It is truly merit based so some fans will be excited while some will cling to the goofballs over at the AP poll.

Real AP Poll:

  1. Georgia (62)
  2. Ohio State (1)
  3. Michigan
  4. TCU
  5. USC – With OSU/Michigan facing each other and USC having both Notre Dame and a highly ranked Pac 12 title game left, feels like they are in great position to make the CFP, no?
  6. LSU
  7. Clemson
  8. Alabama
  9. Tennessee – Rumor is South Carolina is still scoring on UT as we speak!
  10. Oregon
  11. Penn State
  12. Washington
  13. Notre Dame
  14. Utah
  15. Kansas State
  16. Florida State
  17. UCLA
  18. North Carolina – Is there a less trusted top 20 team out there?
  19. Tulane
  20. Ole Miss
  21. Cincinnati
  22. Oregon State
  23. Coastal Carolina
  24. Texas – Back?
  25. UCF – Lost to Navy? Really? Yeesh, classic Gus Bus!

Dropped: Oklahoma State (24)

Receiving Votes: UTSA, South Carolina, Troy, Boise State, Illinois, Iowa, Louisville, Mississippi State, South Alabama, Purdue, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Fresno State

Josh’s Top 25:

  1. Georgia
  2. Ohio State
  3. Michigan
  4. TCU
  5. USC
  6. LSU
  7. Alabama
  8. Clemson
  9. Oregon
  10. Tennessee – Honestly, without the Hooker injury I would have the Vols at 7 and ahead of Alabama but with him out, I have zero clue what UT will look like now offensively. Hell, they could get upset by a very passionate Vandy team in the finale and it wouldn’t surprise me. Hooker did so much for this squad.
  11. Utah
  12. Penn State
  13. Washington
  14. Oregon State
  15. Kansas State
  16. Notre Dame
  17. Ole Miss
  18. Florida State
  19. Tulane
  20. UCLA
  21. North Carolina
  22. Cincinnati
  23. UTSA
  24. Coastal Carolina
  25. -25. See Below – Final Verdict

See Below, What the Hell is That?

This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot(s) all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try to state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (bad games could be narrow wins over bad opponents, a blowout loss, or a stunning upset). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.

American Athletic Conference

I think very highly of UCF and their wins over Cincy and Tulane but being one of the 25 best teams in America means you are consistent. They just lost to Navy. I need to re-evaluate them.

AAC Nominee: UCF

Atlantic Coast Conference

Without MJ Morris, NC State’s woeful offensive issues returned. The team that knocked ’em of…Louisville. I had this squad ranked 25th a few weeks ago, I’ve been impressed with some of the stuff they’ve done this year, mostly winning games – something I wasn’t sure Satterfield knew how to do. I see you Pitt and Duke. Still love you, just don’t think you are one of the 25 best teams.

ACC Nominees: Louisville

Big 12 Conference

After dominating Kansas, Texas is in the conference title chase (needs some help from those very same Jayhawks) but are up to 5-3 in a solid league and have seven wins overall. I’ll give them a look.

Big 12 Nominee: Texas

Big Ten Conference

No Purdue and Iowa, just because Texas has seven wins and five in a power five league does not mean suddenly you are getting a look.

Big Ten Nominee: No One

Conference USA

UTSA is safely in my poll and even though North Texas and Western Kentucky are having solid seasons, they aren’t solid enough for ranking considerations at this time.

C-USA Nominee: No One

Independents

With two straight losses the 8-3 Liberty Flames are on my radar, but not enough to move to the elimination stages yet.

Independents Nominee: No One

Mid-American Conference

The Ohio Bobcats are a machine with six straight wins. They take on Bowling Green this week to clinch a trip to the MAC title game. If they win their finale, their title game, and their bowl they will be 11-3 with nine straight wins…that would probably get them ranked. As it stands now their resume just isn’t quite strong enough.

MAC Nominee: No One

Mountain West Conference

Boise was ranked but fell out after losing to BYU. Since then they beat up Nevada (meh) and clinched their division with a road win at solid Wyoming (hmm). With a 7-0 league mark and 8-3 overall Boise is certainly putting in a rock solid season. I’m not sure they will get the final spot in my poll, but I think they are deserving of at least a look.

MWC Nominee: Boise State

Pac-12 Conference

Washington State’s three game winning streak has gotten them to 7-4 (4-4). They take care of business against the teams they should beat but have no marquee victory with their win at Wisconsin as their only win over a team that will go bowling this year. FCS Idaho has the best overall record of any team WSU beat this season, but obviously that was a step down in competition. I like this gritty Cougars team, but their resume isn’t strong enough. Of course winning the Apple Cup will quickly change that.

Pac-12 Nominee: No One

Southeastern Conference

South Carolina just beat the snot out of Tennessee to get to 7-4 and Mississippi State bounced back after Georgia crushed them to also get to 7-4. I’m not sure the Gamecocks will get ranked but compared to MSU, they have the stronger resume.

SEC Nominees: South Carolina

Sun Belt Conference:

After a shake up in the lower end of the poll, Coastal Carolina has moved up (although the injury to Grayson McCall is worrisome) so that leaves some room for a new face. Troy and South Alabama are both 9-2 (6-1) but the Trojans own the head-to-head win in a Iowa-esque 10-6 game about five weeks ago.

Sun Belt Nominee: Troy

Elimination Time:

We have our nominees set. Now we need to do some weeding! The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.

FCS Much?…South Carolina looked like world-beaters against Tennessee but their seven wins are slightly inflated by a non-con slate that featured FCS South Carolina State and awful FBS club Charlotte and seven-loss Georgia State. Not quite enough there So Car. With no wins over a power five club and several sub .500 Sun Belt clubs, Troy really couldn’t afford a schedule boost from Alabama A&M. I’ll pass on them for now.

Bad Game(s)…Boise State lost by 17 to Oregon State…fair, understandable. They lost by 3 to Boise State…okay, rivalry game. They lost by 17 to UTEP…uhh, harder to explain. Toss in a FCS foe and zero power five wins and zero ranked wins and you have a really nice eight win team without a resume worthy of a ranking right now.

Final Three

For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.

  • Louisville
    • BW: at UCF or Wake Forest
    • WW: USF
    • BL: Florida State (by 4)
    • WL: at Boston College (by 1)
  • Texas
    • BW: at Kansas State
    • WW: UL Monroe
    • BL: Alabama (by 1) or TCU (by 7)
    • WL: at Texas Tech (by 3)
  • UCF
    • BW: at Tulane or Cincinnati
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: Louisville (by 6)
    • WL: Navy (by 3) or at ECU (by 21)

Well this sets up very poorly for UCF. In classic Gus Bus fashion, their two best wins are balanced by two awful losses. On top of that they have a head-to-head loss to a fellow finalist. Lastly, they are the only one of the three to take on a FCS club. Top 25 teams need to be consistent and Malzhan coached teams are seldom described as consistent. Really good team. Really dangerous team. Not rankable this week due to those consistency issues. Watch them win the American.

So that leaves Texas and Louisville. They have identical 7-4 marks, no FCS cupcakes, some great losses, some impressive wins. But that worst loss scenario separates them. UT’s worst loss is going bowling. Their second worst loss, Oklahoma State, is also going bowling and was way healthier at the time of the loss. UL’s worst loss is a eight-loss squad. The floor for Texas is much higher than UL’s. That is how I split that hair.

Final Verdict:

25. Texas

League Breakdown:

6 – Pac 12
5 – SEC
3 – ACC, Big 12, Big Ten
2 – AAC
1 – Conference USA, Independent, Sun Belt

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