Welcome to the most difficult poll to get into. Zero poll inertia. Ya win, ya stay the same (mostly). No preseason ranking clouding my judgement. No wild jumps just because of an upset or a fall because of a bye week. It is truly merit based so some fans will be excited while some will cling to the goofballs over at the AP poll.
Real AP Poll:
- Georgia (62) – Blow out their rival…who was ranked #1…and still not unanimous, hmmmmmm.
- Ohio State (1)
- Michigan
- TCU – Movin’ on up!
- Tennessee
- Oregon
- LSU – Highest two-loss team in America. Is it justified? Oh yeah. Will they make the playoffs…only if they win out.
- USC
- UCLA
- Alabama
- Ole Miss
- Clemson – This drop is far enough that there is no coming back to the CFP, right? Right?
- Utah
- Penn State
- North Carolina
- Tulane – Should’ve had Gameday. Bad move ESPN.
- NC State
- Texas
- Liberty
- Notre Dame – Does an upset over an overrated Clemson team make up for the Marshall and Stanford losses?
- Illinois
- UCF
- Kansas State
- Washington
- Florida State
Dropped: Oklahoma State (18), Wake Forest (20), Syracuse (22), Oregon State (24)
Receiving Votes: Cincinnati, Kentucky, Coastal Carolina, Wake Forest, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Kansas, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Troy, UTSA, Oregon State, Louisville, San Jose State
Josh’s Top 25:
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Michigan
- TCU
- Oregon – I know, I know…UT kept it closer versus Georgia. Here’s the thing though, UT has had all season and plenty of tape to crack Georgia. Oregon had to do it week one in Bo Nix’s first game for the Ducks.
- Tennessee
- USC
- UCLA
- LSU – I jumped them nine spots. I try to avoid crazy erratic jumps so cracking the top ten this week is really something the way my formula works.
- Alabama
- Ole Miss
- Utah
- Clemson
- Tulane
- North Carolina
- Penn State
- Illinois
- NC State
- Washington
- -25. See Below – Final Verdict
See Below, What the Hell is That?
This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot(s) all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try to state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (bad games could be narrow wins over bad opponents, a blowout loss, or a stunning upset). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.
American Athletic Conference
UCF was my nominee last week and just missed out on a ranking. They remain ahead of Cincy thanks to the head-to-head. With their finish last week AND knocking off Memphis, I think UCF will be ranked but where?
AAC Nominee: UCF
Atlantic Coast Conference
NC State re-cracked my poll last week and is safely in again. But who will join them? Wake has been ranked all season but has hit a rough patch. Syracuse is banged up and skidding as well. While those two have trended down, a trio of teams are trending up and hit identical 6-3 marks. Florida State, Louisville, and Duke are all rounding into shape. While Duke is very fun to watch and easy to root for, their wins are all against teams under .500 minus North Carolina A&T – a 6-3 FCS squad. The FSU and UL resumes are both very intriguing and the head-to-head favors FSU but on body of work favors UL so I’ll nominate both and let it be sorted out that way.
ACC Nominees: Florida State and Louisville
Big 12 Conference
Baylor was my nominee and won. Texas beat Kansas State and Kansas State was ranked last week. Well crap, let ’em all move on.
Big 12 Nominee: Baylor, Kansas State, Texas
Big Ten Conference
Maryland was in my poll but laid an egg. They’re out. Purdue also laid an egg. Therefore…
Big Ten Nominee: No One
Conference USA
Meep Meep! UTSA has been on my radar for weeks. They keep winning and keep getting nominated.
C-USA Nominee: UTSA
Independents
Liberty was my nominee a week ago then knocked off Arkansas. Notre Dame was sniffing around and knocked off Clemson. Man we are going to have a lot of nominees.
Independents Nominee: Liberty and Notre Dame
Mid-American Conference
Ohio and Toledo have the best record at 6-3 with MACtion coming up this week but still not enough for ranking consideration/
MAC Nominee: No One
Mountain West Conference
Boise was in my poll and rolling until BYU humbled them. The Broncos, Wyoming, and San Jose all have six wins and have quality clubs, just not top 25 at the moment.
MWC Nominee: No One
Pac-12 Conference
Oregon State was safe last week and Washington was in my poll. They had a hard fought game and both look worthy of ranking. UW moved up while OSU falls to the nomination process again.
Pac-12 Nominee: Oregon State
Southeastern Conference
South Carolina, Kentucky, and Mississippi State are all 6-3 (3-3) and either getting votes or ranked in the coaches. Honestly, none of them look liked ranked teams to me. USC lost to Mizzou, UK needed a bail out penalty on a punt to beat Mizzou, and MSU needed overtime for Auburn.
SEC Nominees: No One
Sun Belt Conference:
Coastal, Troy, and South Alabama are all bowl eligible with at least seven wins and Coastal leading the way at 8-1. None of these teams has a win over a power five which is an issue, but, the Sun Belt has been playing good ball and Coastal’s overall mark is tough to ignore. They will get to stack up against the rest of the nation.
Sun Belt Nominee: Coastal Carolina
Elimination Time:
We have our nominees set. Now we need to do some weeding! The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.
FCS Much?…UTSA keeps getting booted at this point due to the C-USA mates letting them down and their schedule being weakened as a result. My thinking is this…in league they have had: FIU (bad) and MTSU (worse) while in the non conference they have had Army (not good) and the FCS team. See you next week Roadrunner brothers. Sadly their bird brothers in Conway, SC face a similar fate. In addition to league dregs like UL-Monroe, they also took on Army in the non con AND padded with a FCS. Not to mention the bad loss to last place Old Dominion. Keep winning though Coastal, you’ll find your way in soon!
Bad Game(s)…Florida State is trending up and their win against Louisville is mighty intriguing as UL was nominated, too BUT they have a massive issue: three straight losses. Wake is no longer ranked, NC State is lowly ranked, and Clemson was overrated. Their two game winning streak is over Georgia Tech (who fired their coach) and Miami (who wishes they could fire their coach). Factor in a FCS win, this club is really 5-3. Two of those five wins are very, very nice. And I will gladly rank the Noles if they keep winning, I just haven’t seen enough quite yet due to how bad the Jackets and ‘Canes are.
Final Eight
For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.
- Baylor
- BW: Kansas or Oklahoma
- WW: FCS
- BL: Healthy Oklahoma State (by 11)
- WL: at West Virginia (by 3)
- Kansas State
- BW: Oklahoma State or Oklahoma
- WW: FCS
- BL: All three are strong (Tulane, TCU, Texas)
- WL: None
- Liberty
- BW: at Arkansas
- WW: FCS
- BL: at Wake Forest (by 1)
- WL: None
- Louisville
- BW: at UCF (or Wake Forest)
- WW: USF
- BL: Florida State (by 4)
- WL: at Boston College (by 1)
- Notre Dame
- BW: Clemson
- WW: UNLV
- BL: at OSU (by 11)
- WL: Marshall (by 5) or Stanford (by 2)
- Oregon State
- BW: Boise, healthy Fresno, Washington State
- WW: FCS
- BL: USC (by 3)
- WL: at Utah (by 28)
- Texas
- BW: at Kansas State
- WW: UL Monroe
- BL: Alabama (by 1)
- WL: at Texas Tech (by 3)
- UCF
- BW: Cincinnati
- WW: FCS
- BL: Louisville (by 6)
- WL: at East Carolina (by 21)
So the first thing that catches my eye is how Kansas State’s three losses are all extremely impressive and they are then paired with several good wins. How can they not be ranked? They will be in the poll…somewhere. By the same logic Oregon State is also worthy of ranking. Their consistency is very impressive and they lost on the road to a good Washington team. They passed the eye test for me in that game. KSU and OSU will be two of my six final teams
Next I noticed Louisville, Notre Dame, and Texas all avoided the FCS cupcake factory. Factoring in UL’s head-to-head over UCF…while acknowledging FSU did beat Louisville so the Noles are super, super close to getting ranked…I don’t see how you can ignore the great work of those three clubs to not be stepping down a level.
That leaves me with Baylor, Liberty, and UCF for my final spot. Liberty is just one measly point away from being undefeated. UCF has that great win against Cincy, and Baylor has ripped off three straight wins – two of them marking their best wins of the season. For me Liberty’s consistency is a key component. Liberty beat BYU (who beat Baylor). Liberty beat Arkansas (as good a win as anything these other teams have done). Liberty has avoided the massive loss unlike UCF who tumbled by three TDs to ECU. Those matter to me. Eye test wise, Baylor and UCF are probably 3+ point favorites versus Liberty but I can’t make that prediction, I have to go based on their resume.
So we have the Wildcats, Beavers, Cards, Irish, Horns, and Flames to pick through. Circling back to best wins…Oregon State has the three most solid wins followed by KSU’s two solid wins, finally Notre Dame’s one mammoth-sized win. UT’s road win is the best of the three road wins left and finally Louisville’s continued rise gives them the tilt against Liberty’s more consistent approach.
Final Verdict:
20. Oregon State
21. Kansas State
22. Notre Dame
23. Texas
24. Louisville
25. Liberty
League Breakdown:
6 – Pac 12
5 – SEC
4 – ACC, Big Ten
3 – Big 12
2 – Independent
1 – American
Big Ten and Counting 