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2022: Debut Poll

Here it is folks. The most difficult poll to get into. Zero poll inertia. No preseason ranking clouding my judgement. I wait until several games have been played. Normally this debuts around week 4 but due to a busy schedule and traveling to Champaign a couple weeks back, we will settle in here, at the midpoint of the year. Basically everyone has played six games or more by this point so the sample size is large enough to judge.

Real AP Poll:

  1. Georgia (31)
  2. Ohio State (17)
  3. Tennessee (15) – Beating Bama Bump, Baby!
  4. Michigan
  5. Clemson
  6. Alabama
  7. Ole Miss
  8. TCU
  9. UCLA
  10. Oregon
  11. Oklahoma State
  12. USC
  13. Wake Forest – #13 in the polls, #1 in our hearts. Does anyone not love Wake? I bet deep down UNC and Duke fans are still rooting hard for baby brother to do well.
  14. Syracuse
  15. Utah
  16. Penn State
  17. Kansas State
  18. Illinois
  19. Kentucky – UCLA, ‘Cuse, Wake, Illinois, Kentucky – what is this? A late 90’s basketball poll?
  20. Texas
  21. Cincinnati
  22. North Carolina
  23. NC State – Is the whole state of North Carolina ranked? Where is ECU? Where is North Carolina A&T. GIVE ME THE AGGIES!
  24. Mississippi State
  25. Tulane – Party like it’s 1998

Dropped: Kansas (19), James Madison (25)

Receiving Votes: Purdue, LSU, South Carolina, UCF, Kansas, James Madison, Oregon State, Maryland, South Alabama, Liberty, Minnesota (WHY?), Florida State, Arkansas

Josh’s Top 25:

  1. Georgia – Dominated Oregon who is trending up and South Carolina who is trending up. One strange game against Mizzou can be forgiven at this point
  2. Ohio State
  3. Tennessee
  4. Clemson
  5. Michigan – I’d take Big Cinco over J.J. right now
  6. Ole Miss
  7. Alabama – They have a loss and the Rebs don’t. Also Ole Miss’s win at Kentucky is better than any victory the tide have. Obviously this will be sorted out by 11/12 (or earlier) when the Tide and Rebels meet.
  8. TCU
  9. UCLA
  10. Oregon
  11. USC
  12. Wake Forest
  13. Oklahoma State – Too much turtling by Gundy! Let ‘er rip big guy!
  14. Utah
  15. Kansas State
  16. Illinois
  17. Kentucky
  18. Texas – I still don’t buy Sark and I’m not sure what the ceiling is of this team but when healthy, their offense is strong.
  19. Cincinnati
  20. Syracuse – Wow, why so low? Well…their wins are lousy Louisville, ugly Uconn, penalty-prone Purdue, vexing Virginia, washed Wagner, and no QB NC State. I’m not buying anything this team is selling until after the Clemson game. Happy to move ’em up with a good showing.
  21. -25. See Below – Final Verdict

See Below, What the Hell is That?

This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot(s) all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try to state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (bad games could be narrow wins over bad opponents, a blowout loss, or a stunning upset). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.

American Athletic Conference

Tulane is ranked in the real poll and UCF is getting votes. The Wave are 6-1 and the Knights 5-1. Stats slightly favor UCF but their 70-13 shelling of Temple skewed things. The fact that Tulane has that huge win against Kansas State is a pretty high card to beat.

AAC Nominee: Tulane

Atlantic Coast Conference

NC State was a top ten team and are still 5-2 overall BUT their starting QB, Devin Leary, is out for the year. North Carolina is 6-1 with some insane games on their slate. They might be chatoic, but they are healthier than the Pack and they haven’t lost 2 of their last 3.

ACC Nominees: North Carolina

Big 12 Conference

Unfortunately for Kansas, I need to see more of Jason Bean before signing off on putting them back in the polls. Thankfully they have a winnable game against Baylor next so I’ll be keeping the Jayhawks in my orbit, despite keeping them just out the top 25 for right now due to injury issues.

Big 12 Nominee: No One

Big Ten Conference

Penn State, Maryland, and Purdue all have interesting arguments. PU has ripped off four straight and are the co-leaders of the west. Maryland went toe to toe with Michigan…although lost to Purdue. Penn State has the current ranking and beat Purdue. Penn State is obviously in the real poll due to poll inertia. Their early high ranking allowed them to enter the top 10 before Michigan hammered them. The thing is, their schedule is no joke with roadies to Purdue and Auburn so despite UM and PU sniffing around, I’ll advance Penn State for right now.

Big Ten Nominee: Penn State

Conference USA

Meep Meep! UTSA is on my radar at 5-2 but there are a lot better two loss resumes based on quality opponents right now so I’ll pass on the Roadrunners for this week, but if they keep running the table in their league, they’ll crack the polls.

C-USA Nominee: No One

Independents

Liberty is the clear leader here and has a quality 1 point loss to Wake Forest. Unfortunately their wins include Akron, UMass, and a FCS school so not advancing them yet.

Independents Nominee: No One

Mid-American Conference

Down year for the MAC as the best team record wise is 5-2 Toledo. Unfortunately they have a 56 point loss to Ohio State so not worthy of consideration just yet.

MAC Nominee: No One

Mountain West Conference

I still love Air Force despite their 2-2 league mark and 5-2 overall record. Too much self-destruction by this league as they keep beating each other.

MWC Nominee: No One

Pac-12 Conference

Washington was ranked and is 5-2 and Oregon State is also 5-2. OSU’s losses are USC and Utah with the USC game being a 3 point heartbreaker. In a SEC-esque quality loss metric, the Beavers get the nom.

Pac-12 Nominee: Oregon State

Southeastern Conference

Three teams with compelling arguments: South Carolina, LSU, and Mississippi State. USC took two huge hits on their chin (Arkansas by 14, Georgia by 41) but has since won three straight, including taking down Kentucky. Unfortunately it is a pass for me due to two of their wins being Charlotte, a contender for worst team in the country, and a FCS foe. Next up is LSU who dropped a narrow game to Florida State week one and were worked by Tennessee 40-13 but guess who they have a win over? Mississippi State. MSU is banking on their Arkansas and Texas A&M wins but those two teams are struggling right now. Therefore I’ll take the head-to-head winner.

SEC Nominees: LSU

Sun Belt Conference:

Easy one here, the Jags are 5-1 with the one loss being a single point defeat at the hands of top 10 UCLA.

Sun Belt Nominee: South Alabama

Elimination Time:

We have our nominees set. Now we need to do some weeding! The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.

FCS Much?…This category doesn’t do any favors to LSU. In addition to the cupcake against Southern, they also scheduled New Mexico. The Lobos haven’t had a winning record since 2016. They are among the worst FBS teams in the nation. As a result LSU is 3-2 against legit programs. Would you rank a 3-2 team? I personally would not. LSU is out.

Bad Game(s)…Tulane is running a risk here. They have some record inflation with Alcorn State and UMass on their schedule. Then they dropped the game to Southern Miss. That puts them at 4-1 without the cupcakes and a bad loss. Thankfully for the Wave, that Kansas State game more than makes up for USM. They also took down Houston, which is not nothing.

Final Five

For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.

  • North Carolina
    • BW: At Duke
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: None
    • WL: Notre Dame (by 13)
  • Oregon State
    • BW: Washington State or Boise State
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: USC (by 3)
    • WL: at Utah (by 26)
  • Penn State
    • BW: At Purdue
    • WW: Northwestern
    • BL: None
    • WL: at Michigan (by 24)
  • South Alabama
    • BW: Louisiana
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: at UCLA (by 1)
    • WL: None
  • Tulane
    • BW: at Kansas State
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: None
    • WL: Southern Mississippi (by 3)

So the first thing that catches my eye is Penn State with a marquee road win and lack of FCS opponent. I know the Michigan game was ugly and that is recency bias, but of these teams, the Nittany Lions clearly have the best resume. They will be 21st. Speaking of not letting one bad recent game cloud you, may I point to you those Oregon State Beavers. Yes the Utah game went horribly but they have been rock solid otherwise. Also not making this snapshot was their win over Fresno State back when Fresno was 100% healthy. We forget how good the Bulldogs were supposed to be with Jake Haener running things. Put those loveable Beaves at 22.

The next thing that stood out to me is Tulane’s massive road victory being better than anything USA or UNC have to show. Slot the Green Wave in next.

That leaves two teams with a lot of upside but maybe a little unproven. I know LSU fans are going bonkers right now but I’m sorry, you chose to schedule two laughable cupcakes and then failed to beat FSU or Tennessee. Thems the breaks. I’m going to lean UNC’s way because their best win (Duke) is a way better team than South Alabama’s best win.

Final Verdict:

21. Penn State
22. Oregon State
23. Tulane
24. North Carolina
25. South Alabama

League Breakdown:

5 – Pac 12, SEC
4 – ACC, Big 12, Big Ten
2 – American
1 – Sun Belt

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