Last but certainly not least we get to the defending Big Ten champions, Michigan. The breakthrough season saw the Maize and Blue make their first CFP appearance, make (and win) their first Big Ten title game, and – possibly the most satisfying – beat Ohio State for the first time since 2011. It was a magical season in other ways, too. A staff shakeup by Jim Harbaugh saw the defense take a leap and new personnel this year have the fans excited about more changes for the better. The Wolverines athleticism and talent were on full display in 11 wins. Yes, the Georgia game and Michigan State upset were blemishes, but the elation 2021 brought could not be taken down by the two hiccups. So…what’s the encore?
Yes it is an unfair question, can’t we just enjoy the successes??? The agony and ecstasy of college football is on display here as Michigan should be allowed to enjoy last year much longer than a few months, yet here we are. So what are the odds of making it back to Indy? In short, pretty good. Michigan should be favored in every game this season but the Ohio State tilt, so that massive rivalry should determine the division race yet again.
Offensively this team has a great problem: two awesome quarterbacks. Cade McNamara is the returning starter who provides a high floor thanks to his consistency and ball security but has a lower ceiling due to being less athletic compared to his competitor for the starting gig. J.J. McCarthy is that competitor. He is the dreamboat high recruit that fans wanted to see last year but struggled with turnovers when he did play. J.J’s ceiling is higher than Cade but his floor is certainly lower.
Harbaugh is mum on who is leading in camp and announced each will start a game before he makes his final choice. He has never done this at his earlier NFL and college stops so I’m curious if it really is that close, or he just doesn’t want to crush a kid’s confidence. Personally, I’d ride with Cade since he won the Big Ten last year and let J.J. gain valuable experience in lopsided games, but I’m not getting paid gobs of money to make this tough call.
Whoever lassos the job will have plenty of help on this side of the ball. Blake Corum was banged up late last year and didn’t hit the 1,000 yard mark but when healthy he is one of the best backs in the league. The OL lost two starters but the other three are all stout with grad transfer Olusegun Oluwatimi bolstering things. He was a Remington finalist last year and will anchor things at center.
If there is any concern about Michigan’s offense it would be found in the receiver room. Ronnie Bell went down with an ACL last year after just one catch. He showed plenty of flashes in 2020 so his return is key. Cornelius Johnson is the returning leader from the 2021 team so between Bell and Johnson there is a foundation, they just need some young pups to step up.
The defensive side of the ball saw the biggest change last year as Don Brown’s blitz heavy – often too heavy and therefore often criticized – scheme was replaced by new DC Mike Macdonald. Macdonald is now off to the NFL to be on Harbaugh’s Ravens staff. Now Jesse Minter (Vanderbilt DC) will be given the reins to this talented unit.
Minter’s number one task is to replace Heisman finalist Aidan Hutchinson. His number two task is to replace all-Big Ten pass rusher extraordinaire David Ojabo. His number three task is to replace three starters in the secondary. As a result the front is thin and inexperienced and the backline is new. BUT, like I said, there is talent. Michigan has recruited extremely well here so as long as Minter can find the right chemistry with the new faces and make the right playcalls, I expect Michigan’s defense to be good. Admittedly, they probably won’t be as scary as last year’s, but they should still be among the league leaders in D.
The special teams unit will be among the league’s best again. Jake Moody is the defending Lou Groza winning kicker and starting putner Brad Robbins are both back. Corum returned a lot of kicks last year due to Ronnie Bell’s injury so there is experience in the return game; however, with how important those two guys are, I’m sure Harbaugh and his staff will find someone else to take the hits when fielding kicks and punts.
2022 Schedule:
Colorado State:
- Best Case: This program is a mess after Steve Addazio took a wrecking ball to it. 1-0
- Worst Case: Injuries that hurt the season could happen, but no risk of losing. 1-0
- Prediction: No chance for the Rams. UM, 56-7, 1-0 (0-0)
Hawai’i:
- BC: This program is a mess after Todd Graham took a wrecking ball to it. 2-0
- WC: Injuries that hurt the season could happen, but no risk of losing. 2-0
- P: No chance for the Rainbow Warriors. UM, 56-7, 2-0 (0-0)
Connecticut:
- BC: This program is a mess after Randy Edsall took a wrecking ball to it. 3-0
- WC: Injuries that hurt the season could happen, but no risk of losing. 3-0
- P: No chance for the Huskies. UM, 56-7, 3-0 (0-0)
Maryland:
- BC: The Terps defense is a big old question mark. UM rolls. 4-0
- WC: The Terps offense is for real and Michigan’s defense isn’t up to snuff after three straight cupcakes. 3-1
- P: The fightin’ Crab Cakes have the chops with the ball to hang around but I don’t trust their defense enough to pick the upset. Michigan, 31-21, 4-0 (1-0)
At Iowa:
- BC: Just like in Indy, Iowa’s offense doesn’t do anything and their amazing D gets worn down. 5-0
- WC: Spooky Kinnick magic!!! 3-2
- P: I really see no way Iowa’s offense can keep pace in this one. That D wears down after eight first half punts. UM, 38-7, 5-0 (2-0)
At Indiana:
- BC: Hoosiers should be better than last year…but not good enough to threaten Michgian even in Bloomington. 6-0
- WC: After two upsets, Michigan rights the ship. 4-2
- P: Michigan should have a talent advantage at every position. They roll. UM, 42-17, 6-0 (3-0)
Penn State:
- BC: Michigan’s new look D is humming by this point in the year and they shut down the up and down Sean Clifford. 7-0
- WC: Clifford has a career day and the new faces on D and the new DC are struggling. 4-3
- P: On paper these teams feel pretty even but a slight edge to Michigan, an even bigger one if J.J. McCarthy reaches his potential. Talent combined with the home field advantage has me leaning UM’s way. UM, 28-21, 7-0 (4-0)
Michigan State:
- BC: MSU’s defense continues to stink and they take a huge step back. 8-0
- WC: Mel Tucker starts 3-0 in the rivalry. 4-4
- P: So no game has been played yet and MSU is the biggest question mark in the league. They could go 12-0 or their defense could stink and they go 0-12. I have zero clue what is going to happen. Michigan has the talent and should win, but this is a crazy rivalry game. Better go safe and call it close. UM, 28-24, 8-0 (5-0)
At Rutgers:
- BC: Michigan enters their three game prep stretch before OSU with a monster win. 9-0
- WC: RU’s defense makes it interesting for a bit, but the better team prevails. 5-4
- P: Rutgers coaching and defense is too good for this one to turn into a 75-0 type affair, but Michigan should win without too much worry. UM, 35-10, 9-0 (6-0)
Nebraska:
- BC: Nebraska is the worst team in the league and Michigan gets a nice late season cupcake treat. 10-0
- WC: I really don’t see a path for the Huskers to steal this game in Ann Arbor, even if everything goes wrong for UM this year. 6-4
- P: Talent edge + home team = easy win. UM, 31-17, 10-0 (7-0)
Illinois:
- BC: The table is set for a #1 vs #2 matchup in Columbus. 11-0
- WC: Not the year Michigan was hoping for, but to win seven games with so many big shoes to fill on that defense is nothing to sneeze at. 7-4
- P: Ditto the Nebraska game. UM, 35-14, 11-0 (8-0)
At Ohio State:
- BC: Indy bound with just sixty minutes between them and another CFP trip!!! 12-0
- WC: The young pieces got loads of experience and we are off to a bowl. It’s okay, we can get OSU next year. 7-5
- P: As of now, OSU has the better offense and Michigan is a little less sure of a thing on the defensive side. That, plus it being a home game for the Bucks, has me leaning their way. The nice thing is there are MONTHS until this game is played and a whole lot of things could change in that time. OSU, 35-31, 11-1 (8-1)
Wrap Up:
This felt like the clearest write up to do…Michigan is really, really, freaking good. The doubts people have about this team are how you replace such amazing talents like Hutchinson with the third DC in three years. Worse, we will have no clue what Michigan’s D (or honestly O) will be like for a few weeks. As everyone and their brother has pointed out, UM’s first three games are some of the easiest games possible. Other soft schedules at least include power five teams (ex. Minnesota) or in-state foes to help a smaller program (ex. Ohio State) or are early league games (ex. Illinois). In Michigan’s case it is just dumb luck that a schedule set in advance would fall this poorly. Colorado State has a lengthy track record of being a good Mountain West team and Hawai’i is often in bowls. For those two programs to sink to a level as low as Connecticut’s simply wasn’t fathomable whenever those contracts were made….and now I have officially gone on a crazy tangent. Let’s go back to Michigan.
Damn fine team, a few more issues than Ohio State, so that’s why folks (self included) are picking the Bucks…but this is a 1a and 1b thing, not a true #1 vs #2. Let’s just enjoy the ride and see how it plays out.
Big Ten and Counting 