When Mark Dantonio’s program started to dip thanks to lack of offensive imagination (sound familiar, Iowa fans?) and he retired in 2019 after a 7-6 campaign, many were wondering what would become of Michigan State. The program has a glorious history of national titles, Big Ten successes, and a CFP berth before the Wolverines but it was facing a downturn in a division packed with bluebloods: Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State. What would happen to little ‘ol Michigan State? 2020 was not the greatest start for Mel Tucker, going just 2-5 overall. 2021 expectations were low but Sparty exceeded them in a big, big way, going 11-2 and finishing top 10 in the polls.
The surprising season last year results in this question for 2022: what is Michigan State? Back to being dominant? Still building? A flash in the pan? Tucker and his staff have definitely added to the depth and talent of this roster, so I don’t expect Michigan State to fall apart – but I also think their path to Indy is too nasty. In addition to the stacked eastern division, the league saw fit to give MSU two western contenders in Wisconsin and Minnesota AND a roadtrip to probable bowl team Illinois. Seriously? No Nebraska? No Northwestern? Hmm.
The single biggest piece for MSU to replace if they have any slight divisional hopes is at running back. Kenneth Walker III was a revelation last year and parlayed his dream season to a NFL payday. Wisconsin transfer Jalen Berger has shown plenty of flash in this league and Colorado transfer Jarek Broussard adds to the depth. Neither will probably put up Walker’s numbers individually, but if they can at least get close as a committee, Tucker and crew will gladly take it.
The reason MSU can get by without as dominante a running game is the rest of the offensive pieces are that much better. Payton Thorne is coming off a record setting 27 touchdowns and with another offseason of development projects as one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He enjoys the talents of top target Jayden Reed (1000 yards last year) leading a deep receiver room. Daniel Barker (Illinois) is a key transfer to shore up MSU’s tight end position.
The offensive line has a lot of promise if they can stay healthy. All five positions have starting experience with left guard J.D. Duplain and center Nick Samac the best of the bunch. The problem is it was hard to have all five starters starting together. Finding more durability was goal number one for the training staff to boost this position group. Still, last year was like a turnstile of guys coming in and out and they still made it work, so while this is noteworthy, it’s not enough for me to hit some panic button about Sparty.
What might actually be a panic button is the defense. Last year the passing defense was bad…very bad…like dead last in passing yards nationally. Some of it can be put on the schedule with some extremely pass heavy teams on the schedule, but still. The defense has got to improve for Sparty to get back to Indy…whether it is this year or a future season. One way MSU can immediately improve its overall performance is get off the field some more. Basically the defensive series went like this last year: 1st down, sack. 2nd down, sack. 3rd down, broken coverage, gain of 30. If the secondary can hold up a little better, the front seven is talented enough.
Linebacker is the best position group of the three. Big Ten Honorable Mention Cal Haladay is back but now he is in a LB room filled with talented transfers. This group has so much new blood that he might go from primary starter to key reserve just from better recruiting.
The line should also be a disruptive force again after leading the league in sacks last year. The staff loves to rotate faces in and out down there so it is harder to pick the guy to watch but Jeff Pietrowski had 5.5 sacks a season ago. If the LBs are doing their thing and the DL is being disruptive, will they get off the field on third?
I think they can. The secondary is aided by an intriguing transfer from Georgia, Ameer Speed. Senior safety Xavier Henderson is a really experienced piece to have back there. As long as some of the new faces are even competent, the Spartan defense can get off the field more often. I’m not expecting the 85 Bears or even a top 20 national defense, but getting in the top 30-40 and not being dead last in passing will do wonders.
Special teams are a worry. Bryce Baringer led the league in punting last year and he’s back but the kicking duties appear to be going to freshman Jack Stone. At least MSU can get some nice returns. Jayden Reed was a force last year in the return game.
2022 Schedule:
Western Michigan:
- Best Case: Broncos went just 4-4 in the MAC last year. Cakewalk. 1-0
- Worst Case: They did upset ACC champion, Pitt….just saying. 1-0
- Prediction: Western is a little too inconsistent I think to stroll into Spartan Stadium and pose much of a threat. MSU, 49-21, 1-0 (0-0)
Akron:
- BC: The Zips are starting over yet again after firing yet another coach. 2-0
- WC: Joe Morehead is an intriguing hire. I hope he gets the Zips going, but they won’t in week two of his first year. 2-0
- P: I expect tons of running room for Sparty running backs. MSU, 52-10, 2-0 (0-0)
At Washington:
- BC: The stank of Jimmy Lake will take a while to wash out of the rugs. 3-0
- WC: Feels like a longshot, but the history of midwest teams playing non conference games out west isn’t a pretty one. 2-1
- P: Power five road trip makes this one interesting but strip away those intangibles and just look at the talent, Spartans are the better club. They survive a nasty roadie. MSU, 28-21, 3-0 (0-0)
Minnesota:
- BC: Two teams hungry to make waves in their division but the Spartans are at home and should take care of business. 4-0
- WC: Gopher D could be the real deal. In a defensive slug fest, I don’t trust MSU yet. 2-2
- P: Lots to love about both teams, but I’ll take MSU with the slight edge in talent and playing at home. MSU, 28-24, 4-0 (1-0)
At Maryland:
- BC: Hey a team with more defensive red flags than MSU! 5-0
- WC: Of course if UM’s offense is as good as advertised and MSU’s D continues to struggle, hmm. 2-3
- P: I have the Terps bowling so this is no cakewalk but I do think MSU is the better team. They survive another pesky road trip. MSU, 35-28, 5-0 (2-0)
Ohio State:
- BC: This is it folks, MSU is officially back and the real deal. 6-0
- WC: The Buck’s outrageously good offense feasts. 2-4
- P: MSU’s biggest weakness against OSU’s greatest strength. That doesn’t bode well. OSU, 42-21, 5-1 (2-1)
Wisconsin:
- BC: Mertz struggles in big games and MSU rolls. 7-0
- WC: The defense takes a big step back and the offensive line is all banged up. 2-5
- P: This might be more about Wisconsin than MSU, but I just don’t trust the Badger quarterback to get the job done in this game. MSU, 21-17, 6-1 (3-1)
At Michigan:
- BC: Not a dream season without blowing out the Wolverines in the Big House. 8-0
- WC: A brutal amount of “can’t read, can’t write” chants as UM pours it on. 2-6
- P: Game feels like a total toss up here before any game action. I’ll take the home club as a result. UM, 28-24, 6-2 (3-2)
At Illinois:
- BC: The soft stretch of MSU’s season starts and they feel like a lock for Indy with four games left. 9-0
- WC: Illinois has a stout D and will go bowling. An upset isn’t crazy. 2-7
- P: UI’s defense puts up some stiff resistance but MSU has enough talent to squeeze past in another difficult road trip. MSU, 28-21, 7-2 (4-2)
Rutgers:
- BC: When did this happen? When did MSU get ranked number one in the nation? 10-0
- WC: Another team that thinks they are bowling. MSU admins are googling how to undo a massive contract extension. 2-8
- P: Simple equation…MSU is the better team + at home. MSU, 28-17, 8-2 (5-2)
Indiana:
- BC: Indianapolis is locked in but MSU wants to make the playoffs! 11-0
- WC: Spartans were on the right side of several games last year. What if this season the bounces go the opposite way? 2-9
- P: Ditto what I said for the Rutgers game. MSU, 35-24, 9-2 (6-2)
At Penn State:
- BC: Flawless perfection. 12-0
- WC: Terrible D and zero OL is a helluva way to go through life. 2-10
- P: Never easy playing in Beaver but there is a clear talent advantage here. MSU, 28-24, 10-2 (7-2)
Wrap Up:
There is a lot to love about MSU: the way they fight so hard for Mel Tucker, the offensive pieces, and the optimism that the defense is improved. I just think the schedule is brutal. Even if MSU splits the deadly Ohio State and Michigan games there are plenty of other landmines. Penn State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota all have the chops of knocking off Sparty. So yeah, a really solid team, going to play in a great bowl, just not their year to go to Indy. Wait until they get a favorable crossover year, then bet the Spartans futures!
Big Ten and Counting 