Iowa is the defending divisional champs, won ten games last year, and are 26-9 since 2019 – so obviously they are incredible, right? Well, they are in special teams. The defense is also strong. But there is a third phase of football, what is it? Oh yeah, offense. Iowa’s offense the last few years has been stinky. Last year, it was outright horrible.
Iowa was near the bottom of the offensive standing in pretty much every category nationally. They haven’t had a quarterback be named to the first team conference team since Drew Tate in 2004 and they haven’t had a quarterback hit 60% of his passes since C.J. Bethard in 2017. These won’t get fixed anytime soon, either. Head coach Kirk Ferentz is stubborn to a fault and can put a lot of pressure on his OC and quarterback coach to run his system because, you guessed it, the OC/QBC is his son! Brian Ferentz is calling the plays and coaching up the most important position on the team. Yuck, yuck, yuck.
Because the offense is a total joke, let’s do this preview in reverse starting with the best unit on this team…special teams! Leading the way is the best punter in the nation, Tory Taylor. He will be called upon to flip a lot of fields and pin a lot of opponents deep when Iowa goes three and out, which will be often. He led the league last year in 80 punts. He could break it this year. At kicker the reliable Caleb Shudak is gone but the offensively challenged Hawks squeeze a lot of points out of their kickers and have always had a good one under Ferentz. Aaron Blom won the job in camp and the staff, especially beloved special teams coordinator LaVar Woods, has nothing but praise for him. Replacing returner Charlie Jones (transferred to Purdue) is no picnic but there are some really athletic speedsters on the team who could recreate some of what Jones did last year.
While Iowa’s special teams might be the most game-changing phase, the heart and soul of this team is its stiff defense. Led by DC Phil Parker, this unit has been incredible at generating tournvers and points for years now. Three starters are back along the line as well as Jack Cambell is back at LB – and with him his nation leading 143 tackles – and several key defensive backs, including Riley Moss, who was Big Ten defensive back of the year despite a banged up knee costing him three games. In short, the D is fully loaded and will be one of the best units in the nation yet again.
If there is one critique about the defense it would be what plagues Iowa’s offense and the Ferentz regime overall: stubbornness. Iowa will trot out its base 4-3 look on about 99% of snaps this year, just like they did last year, and the year before, and so on. They dare you to beat their system. Some teams do, some teams don’t. It is a simple philosophy and has led to lots of success – but it isn’t perfect. Teams like Purdue have cracked this defensive puzzle and rack up the yards and points. If a more athletic team doesn’t make any mistakes things can get ugly. An example of this was Michigan in the Big Ten title game. With the O generating nothing, the defense got more and more and more tired. They cracked in the second half of the blowout. With no drives by their teammates to recharge their batteries and no silly mistakes by Michigan, Iowa’s defense was gassed. When you have a dead tired LB in the 4-3 trying to cover a running back…well that’s a recipe for disaster.
Still, the talent for Iowa and the brilliance of Phil Parker means this unit, although stubborn, is a clear strength for Iowa. Expect lots of interceptions and, with some luck, points generated by this unit. Also expect an obscene amount of tackles by Jack Cambpell.
So let’s address the elephant in the room: the O…or lack thereof. Despite the reputation of a ground and pound club, Iowa rarely runs the ball well. Last year they averaged just 3.4 yards per carry and a little over 123 yards per game. This is despite the fact that Tyler Goodson was extremely talented and managed to be a thousand yard back. He’s gone now to the NFL.
A big reason the running game can’t get going reliably is there is zero fear from the passing attack. Spencer Petras completed just 57% of his passes last year and had 9 INTs to 10 TDs. Backup Alex Padilla had some appearances when Petras was hurt and fared little better. In classic Iowa fashion they did not hit the portal and are riding with Petras and Padilla again. Petras, who apparently is a practice hall of famer, has been tabbed as starter yet again and with Ferentz’s legendary stubbornness, will remain so no matter how bad the numbers get.
So these are all negatives, what are the positives that Iowa fans can be hopeful about? Well even without Goodson, Gavin Williams and Leshon Williams had flashes last year when backing him up. Theoretically, the running back talent is there. The passing game also has talent with WRs Keagan Johnson and Arland Bruce IV and the next great Iowa tight end, Sam LaPorta.
The offensive line was so-so last year and NFL ready center Tyler Linderbaum declared to get a payday so this is a concern. But hey, brilliant coaching by Brian Ferentz should scheme around these issues up front. BAAAAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAHA.
2022 Schedule:
South Dakota State:
- Best Case: Despite being a FCS juggernaut, Brian Ferentz quiets a lot of critics with half a hundred put up. 1-0
- Worst Case: Wouldn’t be the first time Iowa lost to a Dakota school. 0-1
- Prediction: Iowa comes out sloppy but the D and special teams are as great as advertised. UI, 21-7, 1-0 (0-0)
Iowa State:
- BC: Cyclones have key new faces at QB replacing Brock Perdy and RB replacing Breece Hall. Oh and Campbell has never beaten the Hawks. 2-0
- WC: With Iowa’s offense…any game can be lost. 0-2
- P: Ah yes, El Assico. Cyclones will win one of these one day, but I’m going to pick the home team because I refuse to believe Iowa will yield an inch at Kinnick. I’m probably overly optimistic. UI, 17-5, 2-0 (0-0) – – – fans of this series will recognize this score 🙂
Nevada:
- BC: Nevada wasn’t exactly dynamite last year and then half the team left to go to Colorado State, including their coach. 3-0
- WC: Petras throws 3 pick sixes so they lose 21-10. 0-3
- P: The D and Special Teams get it done…yet again. Meanwhile the O remains god awful. UI, 21-13, 3-0 (0-0)
At Rutgers:
- BC: The Knights are a little like the Hawks – D projects good, O…not so much. 4-0
- WC: Petras throws 3 pick sixes so they lose, 21-10. 0-4
- P: Tough, tough, road trip out to New Jersey as RU is hungry for that bowl game. Plus it is obviously Iowa’s first roadie of the season. Still, D travels and the front seven of the Hawks keep this one in check. UI, 24-14, 4-0 (1-0)
Michigan:
- BC: A little more O, a little more luck, crazier upsets have happened! 5-0
- WC: An uglier repeat of what happened in Indy. 0-5
- P: I really see no way Iowa’s offense can keep pace in this one. That D wears down after eight first half punts. UM, 38-7, 4-1 (1-1)
At Illinois:
- BC: Illinois is still rebuilding. Their young pups aren’t prepared for a defense as good as Iowa’s. 6-0
- WC: Petras throws 3 pick sixes so they lose, 21-10. 0-6
- P: Illinois’s defense is good enough to give Iowa plenty of fits. But the more technically sound and disciplined team escapes. Iowa, 21-17, 5-1 (2-1)
At Ohio State:
- BC: Ya know, if this game was in Kinnick, I could conceivably give the game to Iowa as a part of a dream season…but not on the road. 6-1
- WC: A lot to a little. 0-7
- P: The experienced staff of Kirk Ferentz and Phil Parker can draw stuff up, but eventually the talent wins out as the Iowa D wears down. OSU, 42-10, 5-2 (2-2)
Northwestern:
- BC: Back on track and still in control of their western destiny. 7-1
- WC: Even year magic for the ‘Cats. Also Petras throws a bunch of picks. 0-8
- P: Always a tough matchup for Iowa since Northwestern is willing to take the underneath stuff and nickel and dime Iowa down the field but this one is at home and Iowa’s defense is more athletic than past years where NU’s strategy would work. UI, 28-21, 6-2 (3-2)
At Purdue:
- BC: The Hawkeye front seven goes to work forcing several sacks and hurries as Iowa stuns the Boilers at Ross-Aide, a stadium that has been a house of horrors for the Hawks. 8-1
- WC: Purdue can score on anybody. Can Iowa? Nope. 0-9
- P: Matchup nightmare. Purdue has moved the ball at will against Iowa for the entire Brohm era. PU, 24-21, 6-3 (3-3)
Wisconsin:
- BC: Iowa loads the box daring Wisconsin to pass. Mertz has a nightmare day with pick after pick. 9-1
- WC: Petras throws 3 pick sixes so they lose, 21-10. 0-10
- P: Badgers are better on both sides of the ball. Baby Brian can’t crack this nut. UW, 21-3, 6-4 (3-4)
At Minnesota:
- BC: Gophers are trying to recreate their 2019 offensive success…except against Iowa that offense only generated 19 points. Indy locked up. 10-1
- WC: Petras throws 3 pick sixes so they lose, 21-10. 0-11
- P: I know the Hawks will lose one of these some day. I just think this defense is too special so I’m going to be a homer with very little evidence. UI, 24-21, 7-4 (4-4)
Nebraska:
- BC: Hawks get a rematch against OSU with a spot in the CFP on the line. 11-1
- WC: The offense is awful all year long. Barta finally pulls the trigger and fires Brian. Papa Ferentz retires as a response to his son’s unceremonious dismissal. 0-12
- P: Too much pride for Iowa to send the seniors out right to blow a game against a soon-to-be or already-has-been fired Scott Frost. UI, 21-10, 8-4 (4-5)
Wrap Up:
Well there it is, the story of Iowa…great special teams, outstanding defense, missing in action offense. It is a recipe that should get Iowa to a bowl but they won’t compete for the western title this year thanks to a hellacious schedule. With a top 50 offense, they’d probably be the favorite in the division but they don’t have that and won’t have that with Kirk and Brian Ferentz on staff. So it goes for us Iowa faithful.
Big Ten and Counting 