Going 13-7 (9-6) over the last two seasons isn’t necessarily bad, but when you have won the division three times and have welcomed in some of the best recruiting classes your program has ever gotten, you expect a bit more. Some curious coaching assignments over the past two years seems to be fixed and the hope is, if QB Graham Mertz can cut down on the turnovers, the Badgers have the talent to return to Indy…maybe even more!
Examining the offense outside QB reveals some extremely exciting pieces. Starting with RB Braelon Allen, who led the nation in rushing yards when facing an eight man box, the Badgers’ bread and butter ground game should be all systems go. Good offensive line play has been a staple for the Badgers for about 30 years now. LT Jack Nelson looks to be the next in a long line of difference makers UW will trot out. Finally Chimere Dike had just 33 catches a year ago but has shown enough flashes in his career that the Badger faithful are expecting a breakout season for the speedy, shifty, wideout.
Okay, elephant in the room time. Does Wisconsin have the quarterback to get them over the hump? Weirdly the answer is yes, no, and I don’t know. I don’t know because if Mertz goes down with an injury, the backups on the roster are doing their own rendition of Who’s on First? They are all mystery men. Yes because pre-Covid in 2020 Mertz showed a ton of promise. And no because of…TURNOVERS! INACCURACY! SACKS!
I yelled those at you because that is what Badger fans yell at their television every game. And I do mean every game. Mertz threw 11 interceptions and lost four fumbles last season. That is 15 giveaways in 13 games. You don’t need a math degree to tell you that is a turnover every game. I know, I know, some Mertz defenders will say six of those 11 picks came in just two games (4 vs Notre Dame and 2 vs Penn State) but I would counter by saying there were games where he was a non factor: ahem, 5/8 for 52 yards vs Purdue.
As for the inaccuracy, the numbers speak for themselves: 59.5 completion percentage last year. Sub sixty is bad. In today’s passing game, anything less than 60% ain’t cutting it. Don’t believe me? Kenny Pickett connected on 67% of his passes last year. The year before when no one was giving him any NFL buzz he sat at just 61%. The much derided Spencer Petras at Iowa hits on 57%. The often discussed Bo Nix, 61%. 59% is like Stringer Bell’s 40 degree day rant in The Wire. 50 degrees is nice, 60 degrees is almost barbecuing weather, but 40? No one remembers a 40 degree day. Mertz has too many 40 degree days because of his accuracy problems.
Sacks are always a mix of issues – wideouts not getting open, QB holding the ball too long, and crappy O line play. Wisconsin has had some issues with their receivers the last two years. And the OL had some ups and downs due to some questionable coaching choices by Paul Chryst. But Mertz seems to think throwing the ball away is against the rules. He holds the ball frustratingly long at times and it costs him. Mertz was hauled down 13 times last year and 12 times in the COVID shortened year. 25 sacks over two seasons doesn’t sound like many, but remember 2020 messes all the stats up, you need to go per game. Looking at years where they were the starter or primary backup and logged substantial playing time, Mertz stands out quite a bit compared to the recent Badger QBs. Alex Hornibrook was hauled down 48 times in 35 games. That’s 1.37 per game. Jack Coan was wrangled to the turf 29 times in 19 games, a 1.52 average. Mertz’s 25 sacks in 13 games is a whopping 1.92 per game. If it was purely the line’s problem, then protect him with backs and faster passing routes. If it is the wideouts, use TEs and backs to augment the passing attack. If it is Mertz, uhh…ruh-row. You can see why Wisconsin fans are cautiously optimistic about getting back to Indianapolis.
Defense is no joke yet again. Sure the faces will be new but Jimmy Leonhard is the real deal as a DC and the talent, although new to us, were highly touted during recruiting and learned behind some out of this world all stars. Now it is their time to shine.
Special teams is a phase of the sport that the Badgers plan to participate in.
2022 Schedule:
Illinois State:
- Best Case: The Redbirds went just 4-7 last season. 1-0
- Worst Case: Brock Spack has done some great things at ISU, including winning two conference titles, but his squad is punching too far above their weight in this one. 1-0
- Prediction: Lots and lots and lots of rushing yards. UW, 52-7, 1-0 (0-0)
Washington State:
- BC: Jack Dickert was an awesome hire for WSU after doing so well as the interim coach. I expect the Cougars to be a solid team and make a bowl…but this is a west coast team traveling west, that seldom goes well, 2-0
- WC: Can never say never in a power five non conference game but getting this at Camp Randall is a pretty nice perk. 2-0
- P: Just too much talent for UW as Washington State is still mid-rebuild from the Rolovich disaster. UW, 28-13, 2-0 (0-0)
New Mexico State:
- BC: A big ten double-dip for the Aggies! This should go about as well as their trip to Minnesota. 3-0
- WC: Injuries that impact the rest of the season are a possibility, but no real threat for Wisconsin to lose this. 3-0
- P: Starters probably done after the first possession of the third quarter. UW, 49-7, 3-0 (0-0)
At Ohio State:
- BC: The Badger D slows the Bucks down and Mertz has the game of his life. 4-0
- WC: Still a noticeable talent gap for UW compared to the premier program of the league. 3-1
- P: Buckeyes can pretty much score on anybody. I’m not sure Mertz has it in him to keep up in a shootout. OSU, 28-14, 3-1 (0-1)
Illinois:
- BC: A rude homecoming for former coach Bret Bielema. 5-0
- WC: The Illini make a game of it, but UW is able to out ground and pound the Illini who also like a physical style. 4-1
- P: Both teams will keep the clock running and the Illini have the defensive chops to slow WIsconsin down a little, but the Badgers pull away as the game plays out. UW, 24-8, 4-1 (1-1)
At Northwestern:
- BC: This is NU’s homecoming…yikes. 6-0
- WC: A few years ago NU took advantage of a deluge of Badger turnovers. Mertz does like turning the ball over…4-2
- P: NU’s biggest weakness on paper is their defensive line. UH OH! UW, 35-3, 5-1 (2-1)
At Michigan State:
- BC: Mertz is playing his best football, the D is incredible, and Wisconsin is not just a western contender but a real threat to make the CFP like Sparty did under Dantonio a few years back. 7-0
- WC: Too many new starters on D that haven’t made the jump and Mertz continues to struggle. 4-3
- P: You are asking me before a single snap for either team to predict Mertz strolling into a hostile East Lansing and carving up the Spartans? I’m not taking that bait. MSU, 21-17, 5-2 (2-2)
Purdue:
- BC: D does their thing, the machine keeps on humming. Kind of like a train, hmm. 8-0
- WC: Aw crap the PU offense is amazing and the Badgers just can’t score reliably due to horribly timed Mertz mishaps. 4-4
- P: PU’s defensive line is a rebuild project right now, that bodes well for UW’s big uglies and their running game. UW, 28-17, 6-2 (3-2)
Maryland:
- BC: The Maryland D is still a big question mark, uh oh. 9-0
- WC: In a repeat of the Purdue game, UM’s amazing offense is able to score while the Badgers shoot themselves in the foot over and over. 4-5
- P: In a repeat of the Northwestern and Purdue predictions…new look defensive lines against Wisconsin doesn’t inspire confidence in the offseason! UW, 35-21, 7-2 (4-2)
At Iowa:
- BC: Hey look, Spencer Petras is a worse qb than Mertz! 10-0
- WC: The wheels come off at Iowa as the Hawkeyes are on track for two straight divisional titles and Wisconsin’s offense just continues to putt around. 4-6
- P: I’ve seen enough of Brian Ferentz to know how this one goes…UW, 21-3, 8-2 (5-2)
At Nebraska:
- BC: Indy is locked up but the CFP is still in play so UW keeps balling out. 11-0
- WC: Nebraska finally has a breakthrough season while UW is in full on panic mode – what went wrong?!?! 4-7
- P: DItto a few games above for NU…no defensive line answers! Wisconsin runs left, right, and center! UW, 38-7, 9-2 (6-2)
Minnesota:
- BC: Flawless perfection. 12-0
- WC: Chryst announces hitherto unknown health issues and retires with Jimmy Leonhard becoming the head coach after a dismal season. 4-8
- P: Talent favores the Badgers as does homefield. They will be favored and they should win. Hopefully there is a blizzard to make the game that much more fun to watch. UW, 21-7, 10-2 (7-2)
Wrap Up:
Wisconsin should be good. They could be very good. They have a chance to be great. The thing is though, with those two nasty crossover road games and some landmines in the division, I think there is a ceiling: 7-2. Any slips from there, and the track is wide open for a Minnesota or even a Purdue to steal the division like Iowa did last year. Why would any slip up happen? I think you can all guess it…lackluster quarterback play. Until Mertz puts together a solid run – like 4 or 5 games of reliably good play – there will be doubters of Wisconsin getting over the hump and winning the league and / or making the playoffs.
Big Ten and Counting 