Back in 2019 Minnesota were co-champs of the west and won 11 games. It was a mammoth season. Covid shortened 2020 saw all sorts of struggles as the Gophers went just 3-4. A lot of blame was placed on new OC Mike Sanford Jr. who replaced the beloved Kirk Ciarrocca, architect of the 2019 offense. With a magnifying glass on Sanford last year the Gopher offense…sputtered. The offensive struggles were not enough to derail the season, after all the Gophers went 8-4 in the regular season and then knocked off West Virginia in a bowl to get to nine wins. But the losses weren’t pretty. Generating 31 points and 22 points against Ohio State and Iowa were respectable but just six points scored against Illinois? Really? And then there is the game that the fans abandoned Sanford – Bowling Green. The Gophers lost 14-10 to the Falcons. A Falcon team that ended just 4-8. Even in wins fans were second guessing the playcalls, the scheme, the use of talent, everything. What could coach P.J. Fleck do to regain the trust of the fans? Make a change.
Fleck rowed Sanford out of town and brought back…you guessed it…Kirk Ciarrocca! He is tasked with getting the passing game going like he did in 2019 because UM couldn’t pass last year, like, at all. They were 118th in passing. Helping the improvement efforts out is returning QB Tanner Morgan. Morgan was outstanding in 2019 under Ciarrocca and then regressed in 2020 and 2021. It stands to reason that, even if he doesn’t recapture the 2019 magic, Morgan will at least be much more effective this year than he was the last two.
Morgan and Ciarrocca aren’t the only familiar faces lining up for the Gophers on O this year. Receiver Chris Autman-Bell and RB Mohamad Ibrihim are joined with outstanding center John Michael Schmitz (all Big Ten last year). They are the “encore four” – dubbed by coach Fleck – since they are all back for a sixth and final year. Bell and Ibrihim are both extremely talented but extremely frustrated about how injuries derailed last year. Ibrihim especially, as he tore his achilles in the opener while gashing Ohio State on run after run.
If Bell and Ibrihim are hit by the injury bug again, there is some depth. Texas A&M transfer Dylan Wright is an exciting talent in the receiver room and TE Brevyn Spann-Ford has a hearty 6’7” frame going over the middle. At running back Trey Potts and Bryce Williams both got experience last year when Ibrihim went down and are more than capable of being the featured back again.
The biggest worry for the Gophers is on the line. Four new starters will surround John Michael Schmitz. While this could become a reason Minnesota struggles, I’m a little bullish here before a down is played. First of all they are anchored by one of the nation’s best centers and second of all, Fleck has shown particular interest in having a reliable ground game, meaning Minnesota has OL as an area of emphasis in player development and recruiting. The results over the last several years speak for themselves so I’ll trust that track record. Maybe I’ll be proven wrong, but I’m at least betting on history in this case.
Defensively the Gophers were outstanding a year ago. They finished top ten in scoring D and total D. With all but four starters back, the unit should be pretty dang good again. The biggest hit was on the DL with a whole bunch of new faces. Not to be overlooked, their best shutdown corner, Coney Durr and leading tackler LB Jack Gibbens are also being replaced. The continuity in returning starters, on roster development, and key pick ups in the transfer portal has me penciling in a solid defensive unit. Maybe not top ten nationally again, but certainly in the upper half of the Big Ten.
Special teams were pretty unspecial a year ago…but it is experienced. If the returning pieces have gone to the next level, great. If not, well, as long as they don’t go full blown Keystone Kops like Nebraska did a year ago, this phase of the game shouldn’t be too much of a liability.
2022 Schedule:
New Mexico State:
- Best Case: The independent Aggies are possibly the hardest job in America until they can finally be in a league…which is supposed to be next season…assuming C-USA survives that long. 1-0
- Worst Case: Jerry Kill is now coaching the Aggies. The first year coach spent some time in Minneapolis. Perhaps he knows where to hide some cameras and mics to dig up dirt on P.J. Fleck. 1-0
- Prediction: New Mexico State is a sad story to me. The Sun Belt kicks them out and their last year they win a bowl. As an independent it all falls apart. Covid year they play just two games, further hampering the program. UM, 42-3, 1-0 (0-0)
Western Illinois:
- BC: The Leathernecks haven’t had a winning season since 2017 and have a brand new coach. Big win. 2-0
- WC: Myers Hendrickson had a great head coaching debut in three seasons with NAIA Kansas Wesleyan. I think he has a good shot to turn around WIU with some time…not two weeks in. 2-0
- P:A lot to a little. UM, 52-7, 2-0 (0-0)
Colorado:
- BC: The Buffs are coming off a 4-8 el stinko of a season. 3-0
- WC: They are a power conference team so you could talk yourself into a loss…but…it is at home and Minnesota is vastly superior on paper. 3-0
- P: Karl Dorrell’s 2019 season was such magical fun going 4-2 but last year they went just 4-8. Is he the man for the job? I have no clue. Let’s go with the sure thing: Minnesota is better and at home. UM, 35-21, 3-0 (0-0)
At Michigan State:
- BC: A new darling this year as it is the Gophers who are hot and the Spartans are not. 4-0
- WC: After three manageable games, Minnesota gets a big wake up call against one of the Big Ten’s elite. 3-1
- P: This one is shaping up to be a dandy. I think the Gophers are more than capable of winning it but a slight talent edge to Sparty and the home field advantage. MSU, 28-24, 3-1 (0-1)
Purdue:
- BC: Gophers make a big statement in the west race by holding home serve against another popular sleeper. 5-0
- WC: Gopher’s new look O is not enough to keep up with the Boilers. 3-2
- P: I like the Minnesota D way more than Purdue’s. Defense still matters. So does home field. UM, 35-31, 4-1 (1-1)
At Illinois:
- BC: Is that a top 10 Gopher team I see? 6-0
- WC: Illinois D is for real. 3-3
- P: Two teams I have bowling square off. Slight talent edge to the Gophers. They escape. UM, 24-21, 5-1 (2-1)
At Penn State:
- BC: If you are going to avoid crossovers with Ohio State and Michigan, that’s fine. But the trade off of MSU and PSU is kind of mean after getting hopes up. Still, Gophers are having a dream season and Franklin’s club isn’t 7-0
- WC: Brutal roadie as the Gopher O still lacks punch. 3-4
- P: This game might make or break the season for the Gophers. Win it and their path to Indy is wide open. If not, things get dicey. I’m taking the home club though. PSU, 24-21, 5-2 (2-2)
Rutgers:
- BC: Everyone get in here, Minnesota is doing special things! 8-0
- WC: The offense is somehow worse than last year AND the d has now taken a step back. Uh-oh. 3-5
- P: Minnesota is at home and the more experienced ball club. Gophers take full advantage. UM, 31-21, 6-2 (3-2)
At Nebraska:
- BC: Frost has long since been canned and the Huskers literally do not care about the home stretch. 9-0
- WC: The Husker O is humming under Whipple and the Gopher D continues to decline from last year’s high. 3-6
- P: The Gophers have a much more experienced roster and way more continuity on the staff. Those things matter, even this deep into the season. UM, 28-24, 7-2 (4-2)
Northwestern:
- BC: Thanks to multiple losses by Iowa and Wisconsin, Minnesota clinches the west by knocking off Northwestern. Indy bound!!! 10-0
- WC: Oh crap, even year magic from Northwestern. 3-7
- P: NU’s defense doesn’t look too good on paper right now. Gopher’s new-look O shines. UM, 35-28, 8-2 (5-2)
Iowa:
- BC: Is Brian Ferentz still calling plays? 11-0
- WC: Iowa has won seven straight in this series. Make it eight. 3-8
- P: Back in 2019 Iowa held this offense to 19 points. Perhaps this is a favorable matchup for Iowa? I know my Hawks will lose at some point in this series, but I’m going to be optimistic and say it doesn’t happen this year. Why? I just love Phil Parker and his defense too damn much. UI, 24-21, 8-3 (5-3)
At Wisconsin:
- BC: Top 5 ranking, off to Indy, and sixty minutes away from the CFP. 12-0
- WC: The 4 starters on D to replace was just too hard. The 4 starters on the OL to replace was just too hard. Everything went wrong in this nightmare season. 3-9
- P: Wisconsin has some new faces on defense but everyone expects the brilliance of Jimmy Leonhard to still put together a great unit. That stands to reason you want the Badgers early, not this late in the season. UW, 21-7, 8-4 (5-4)
Wrap Up:
Liar! Liar alert! Josh is a liar! I listen to your podcast, illegal motion college football podcast, every damn week and you picked the Gophers to win the west…what the hell is going on?!?!? Excellent point and question and I’m glad you listen to the pod. Here is my thinking on why I picked the Gophers on the pod…
- Iowa has to play Michigan and Ohio State in crossovers. They have divisional road trips to Minnesota and Purdue. Even if they split all four of those, that puts them at two league losses without even factoring in hosting Wisconsin, traveling to pesky Rutgers and Illinois. There is not a path for Iowa to get to Indy this year. There just isn’t.
- Wisconsin has to play at Ohio State and at Michigan State in crossovers. They also have pesky Maryland as the third crossover. Finally there is the divisional road trip to Iowa. Even if they split all four of those, that puts them at two league losses without even factoring in hosting Minnesota and Purdue. I don’t trust the quarterback play of Wisconsin enough to see them running the gauntlet with a 9-0 or 8-1 mark. 7-2 is probably the ceiling of this team.
- So ask yourselves, can Minnesota match that 7-2? I already have them penciled in to five wins while getting swept by MSU, PSU, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Iowa is offensively challenged, no one would be surprised if Minnesota won that game. Wisconsin is a QB away from being special, that wouldn’t exactly be a mammoth upset. Penn State is 11-11 in their last 22, people who say the Nittany Lions are amazing are buying stock in a product that hasn’t been there the last two years. And Michigan State – shoot, last year could’ve been a mix of luck and a world class running back. Perhaps Sparty falls back to the pack. So yeah, Minnesota can flip enough of those games to match whatever Wisconsin has.
- Minnesota has wiggle room. What if Wisconsin – the popular pick to win the west – loses to Michigan State, Ohio State, and Iowa. Goes 6-3. But Minnesota loses to Michigan State and Wisconsin? Gophers lost the battle for the ax, but won the war in the west.
- Minnesota is this year’s Iowa. The team with the easier path. Hawkeyes took advantage of it last year despite getting blown out by Purdue and Wisconsin. Iowa made it because Minnesota, Purdue, and Wisconsin all went 6-3 while Iowa floated along to go 7-2. Was Iowa actually better than those teams? Well they went 1-2 against them, so safe to say they were not.
So yeah, I stand by what I said on the pod. Minnesota does have the easiest schedule of the contenders in the west. If I’m placing a bet, I get a better payout with taking Minnesota as a bit of a sleeper than I do with Wisconsin who literally everyone is picking to win the division.
Anyway, the Gophers look like they have the potential to be the real deal this year. Do they take full advantage? That’s the fun thing about this sport…the proof will be very visible in a few hours.
Big Ten and Counting 