That unusual smell in the air right now Illinois fans is something called hope. Hope is blooming around the Illini program for the first time in quite some time. Bret Bielema’s 5-7 (4-5) debut season marks the most overall wins for a first year coach with the program since 2015’s Bill Cubit – who was an interim coach. The four league wins mark the most in a debut season since Lou Tepper in 1992. What’s even crazier to think about is, what might have been. If not for some disastrous quarterback play, much of it due to injuries impacting the position, Illinois could have flipped a few narrow losses to wins. UTSA beat them by seven, Maryland by three, Purdue by four, and Rutgers by six. Change any of those games and Illinois goes bowling at 6-6. Flip two of those games and Bielema might have won league coach of the year. I’m serious, that’s how down this program has been in recent memory.
Here’s the downside of good debut seasons and hope…can you live up to it? With Bielema’s coaching style of hard, physical running that moves the chain and keeps the clock rolling to shorten games and help the defense out, there is a clear philosophy and a sound foundation: two things that were missing under previous UI coaches. Also helping matters is the defense became a reliable unit last year and should be even better this time around. Thanks to seven winnable games and the possibility for an upset or two in the other five, a bowl game doesn’t just feel like an aspirational target, but a clearly defined goal. I think they have the pieces to get there.
Piece one to help is thousand yard back Chase Brown. One of the league’s best, he looks to add to his career numbers thanks to a more potent attack leaving less filled boxes by the defense. In front of him is a line with only two starters back, but, when the head coach is a line expert and makes it the focal point of his offense, I trust Illinois will have a good line by day one. The receiving group welcomes back leading wideout Isaiah Williams.
The two big new faces on offense are under center and in the coaching room. New OC Barry Lunney Jr. has worked with Bielema before and will want to add to the passing game by utilizing TE Luke Ford more. Transfer QB Tommy DeVito (Syracuse) had some incredible individual moments for the down and out Orange. If he can recapture some of that past glory, he immediately elevates the QB play Illinois will get this year compared to last.
Defensively this unit made massive strides last year. Going from 97th to 29th in scoring and 114 to 46 in total defense is a massive contributing factor for Illinois winning four league games last year. With five of the top seven leading tacklers – and the top two overall – returning, UI’s defense should at least match last year’s numbers, but ideally will surpass them. One name to keep an eye on is DL Keith Randolph Jr. who tallied four sacks a year ago
The biggest weakness of this team will be in the special teams as the kicker, punter, and long snapper all used up their eligibility and graduated. Caleb Griffin has been the back up kicker so he should get the starting gig initially at least. Unless this unit goes full blown Nebraska though, I’ll flag it as a concern but not something to panic about.
2022 Schedule:
Wyoming:
- Best Case: The Cowboys went just 7-6 and won two league games last year. 1-0
- Worst Case: Just because the Pokes won a bowl a year ago doesn’t mean they will stroll into Illinois and knock off the Illini. 1-0
- Prediction: Craig Bohl is a proven coach and Wyoming will surely relish the opportunity to beat a Big Ten school in their house but the talent clearly favors the Illini. UI, 31-14, 1-0 (0-0)
At Indiana:
- BC: The Hoosiers went winless last year in the league. Always a chance they stink again. 2-0
- WC: Of course, if the Hoosiers righted the ship and got back to the 2020 level of play, it could be the Illini who stink in this one. 1-1
- P: A little toss-up vibe as I don’t expect Indiana to be as bad as last year, but I will trust the Illini on the road. Illinois, 24-17, 2-0 (1-0)
Virginia:
- BC: UVA’s new coach is a dud and Illinois returns the stomping they got last year. 3-0
- WC: Uhh, Brennan Armstrong is pretty dang good. 1-2
- P: Tough to know how much losing Bronco Mendenhall will mean for Virginia. Also tough to know if last year’s 42-14 blowout has any impact a year later. As a result I will treat this as essentially a toss-up and when that happens I tend to go with the home team. UI, 28-24, 3-0 (1-0)
Chattanooga:
- BC: The Mocs went just 6-5 last year. Cakewalk. 4-0
- WC: They do enter this season top 15 in the FCS rankings. Still, Illinois should win. 2-2
- P: Barring disastrous injury, this should just be a tune up for the more talented Illini. UI, 45-10, 4-0 (1-0)
At Wisconsin:
- BC: The Illini don’t get shut out again after last year’s dismal 24-0 loss. All kidding aside, I’m sure Bret Bielema would love to knock off his old club but I just don’t see enough in Illinois yet to trust them winning this one, even in their dream season. 4-1
- WC: Another shutout. 2-3
- P: Illinois’s defense should do enough to make them frisky in this one, but I don’t see enough points being generated against the stalwart Wisconsin D to steal this one. UW, 24-8, 4-1 (1-1)
Iowa:
- BC: Honestly, with Iowa’s offense, they have the ability to lose to anybody. 5-1
- WC: Iowa beats Bret bad enough he lasers his tigerhawk tattoo off. 2-4
- P: Ditto the Wisconsin outlook. Kind of a gross game but Iowa escapes. Iowa, 21-17, 4-2 (1-2)
Minnesota:
- BC: More home cooking as Illinois’s defense continues to shine. 6-1
- WC: Minnesota is the best sleeper pick to win the west. They do it by winning games like this one. 2-5
- P: There is a lot I like about this Gopher team. You’ll see what I’m talking about when I preview them but to tease things…huge OC hire will change things a lot. UM, 24-21, 4-3 (1-3)
At Nebraska:
- BC: Frosty is on his farewell tour and UI feasts. 7-1
- WC: All the new faces for NU click and they are actually…good? 2-6
- P: Never an easy road trip to Lincoln but the better team prevails. UI, 24-21, 5-3 (2-3)
Michigan State:
- BC: Sparty turns out to be a one hit wonder and Illinois notches yet another win! 8-1
- WC: Sparty turns out to be really good again. 2-7
- P: I have Illinois in another moral victory, but they have the talent to pull at least one of these upsets off. MSU, 28-21, 5-4 (2-4)
Purdue:
- BC: Boilers don’t live up to the hype and their defense is a, pardon the pun, a trainwreck. 9-1
- WC: That PU offense is for real. 2-8
- P: Purdue has a lot of buzz this year and I have them bowling with a bit better record than Illinois, thanks to this game right here. PU, 31-21, 5-5 (2-5)
At Michigan:
- BC: The hopes of a division title are extinguished in the Big House. 9-2
- WC: Illini fans left wondering what the hell happened this year. 2-9
- P: Just a pinch of a talent gap in this one folks. Oh, and it is a road game. UM, 35-14, 5-6 (2-6)
Northwestern:
- BC: A damn fine campaign with 10 wins. Hungry for more in a solid bowl. 10-2
- WC: Even year magic for Northwestern inexplicably gets them to Indy. 2-10
- P: BOWL TIME BABY! Illinois has a bumpy road thanks to two tough crossovers and a nasty road trip to Madison but they take care of business in their rivalry game. UI, 28-24, 6-6 (3-6)
Wrap Up:
I like this Illinois team a lot. I think the OC hire and the addition of DeVito get them over the hump offensively. Them upsetting Wisconsin, MSU, or Iowa feels doable. Honestly if you flipped either UM or MSU for Rutgers, I’d have them at 7-5. I’d also be tempted to take the Illini in a game against Maryland. For me it all starts with their head coach. Bret’s philosophy is right at home in the Big Ten. His Arkansas detour was as silly as it was disappointing. His system was too easy to face with the talent gap the Hogs had against the likes of Alabama and he was in a challenging spot to improve the talent since had literally no connections to SEC recruiting lands. He’s back at home and it will pay dividends. I just hope my road trip down to Champaign this year rooting for my Hawks isn’t a disappointing one.
Big Ten and Counting 