Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. That is a cliche people use to describe getting fooled. Why should you care? Well Penn State has been doing some fooling lately. In 2020 they started 0-5 before finishing 4-5 in the COVID shortened season. It was easy to write off. Who knows what practices were like, who knows what players missed key time from the illness, and no fans in Beaver Stadium stripped them of one of the best home fields in the nation. In 2021 the Nittany Lions were preseason top 20 and raced out to a 5-0 start. At Iowa, the Hawkeyes’ stalwart defense harassed Penn State for sixty minutes and somehow, the Iowa offense got a drive going late to win the game. I know, I know, starting quarterback Sean Clifford got hurt. Fair. But then PSU lost to Illinois, hmm. Sitting now at 5-2 Penn State still had OSU, Michigan, and MSU on the slate. They were swept. Only victories against Maryland and Rutgers kept Franklin’s squad above .500. Once in the bowl, Arkansas shut them down, winning by two touchdowns. 7-6 for the year and 11-11 over the last two. That, my dear readers, is the definition of mediocrity.
Now, is this a two year down spell OR a harbinger of things to come for James Franklin’s program? That is the two billion dollar question. Penn State has never really been an also-ran. They won’t take kindly to it. Translation, Franklin needs to win either this year or next – and ideally – this year. As you will see their crossover games are ideal and their non-conference pretty easy. Failing to improve on last year’s seven wins might not be enough to fire Franklin but boy will his seat be a raging inferno.
The biggest X factor for Penn State to improve is the quarterback position. Sean Clifford is back with his 33 career starts. He has the experience. He has the talent. Does he have consistency? The .500 mark over the last 22 games can be explained by a lot of different factors but undeniably his up and down play this far into his career is head scratching. Also head scratching was the running game last year. The recruiting numbers are off the charts: three four-star kids. The results have been poor: zero hundred yard rushing performance last year.
Usually when rushing numbers are that bad the offensive line plays a part. That was certainly true last year. Alarmingly, the OL will feature a ton of new faces in 2022 so there will be little “growth with experience” for this unit. If this year’s version of the line struggles like last year’s, it might not matter if Derrick Henry is suiting up for the Nittany Lions. Finally those receivers. Another uber talented group thanks to Franklin’s recruiting prowess just not as experienced as the group was last year.
Defensively there is a big red flag: Manny Diaz. The new DC has left a lot to be desired in his last few coaching stops. Diaz inherits a group that had a fair number of season ending injuries so getting healthy is key. Returning LB Curtis Jacobs is a good player but with a new look LB room he will need to rise to the occasion and be a team leader.
For the specialists, Jordan Stout, the do it all punter-kicker, graduated. Jake Pinegar has kicking experience in 2019 and 2020 (20/25 FGs) before losing his role to Stout so he should be the day one kicker. Punting duties will probably be incoming freshman Alex Bacchetta. The return game has big shoes to fill in the departure of Jahan Dotson.
2022 Schedule:
At Purdue:
- Best Case: Purdue can score…can they stop anybody? 1-0
- Worst Case: Can Penn State stop Purdue? 0-1
- Prediction: Now I’m not saying Purdue is a gimmick offense BUT, in the same vein as a well oiled option offense, the best time to get them is after your bye, in a bowl, or the first game of the year. By having all off-season dedicated to “stop Purdue!” I would think even Manny Diaz could draw some stuff up. PSU, 38-35, 1-0 (1-0)
Ohio:
- BC: Life without Frank Solich wasn’t very fun last year going just 3-9. 2-0
- WC: Bobcats have been scrappy in the past and I’m sure they will be again, just not this week. 1-1
- P: If there is ever a time to break the “no single hundred yard rusher” streak it is this week, right? PSU, 42-17, 2-0 (1-0)
At Auburn:
- BC: After a 6-7 debut, Bryan Hairsan’s seat is already uncomfortable. 3-0
- WC: Playing in Jordan-Hare is seldom easy. It is conceivable to see PSU dropping this one. 1-2
- P: Auburn is a popular pick for finishing dead last in the SEC west this year. Franklin’s crew should be much more talented and that should overcome the tricky road environment. PSU, 28-20, 3-0 (1-0)
Central Michigan
- BC: The Chips really struggled with power five teams a year ago, losing by 10 to Mizzou and 28 to LSU. 4-0
- WC: Then again they finished strong and beat Washington State in their bowl game to win nine games. There is always the possibility of an upset, but I think Franklin will have his squad ready and not sleep on the Chips. 2-2
- P: I’ve always had a soft spot for CMU after playing with them in dynasty mode back in the day. Having said that, Penn State has no reason to get cute in this one. Just stick to the plan and your talent will be the difference. PSU, 31-14, 4-0 (1-0)
Northwestern
- BC: This is the crossover date everyone in the east hoped they had. 5-0
- WC: Remember, PSU is 11-11 in their last 22 and have a lot of new faces, there’s a chance that they have a turd of a season if it all goes wrong. 2-3
- P: Talent to talent, PSU still has a big edge. Factor in the Beaver Stadium faithful, I see PSU winning this one with ease. PSU, 38-10, 5-0 (2-0)
At Michigan
- BC: Clifford makes a massive Heisman statement in the Big House as Penn State goes into the top 10. 6-0
- WC: Clifford gets yanked as Franklin decides to see if any of the freshman gunslingers on his roster can be more consistent. 2-4
- P: Talent edge is in UM’s favor as the homefield advantage. I don’t think there is a huge gulf between these teams, but it is noticeable as of writing this. UM, 28-21, 5-1 (2-1)
Minnesota:
- BC: Battle of uber experienced qbs with strange careers goes Clifford’s way. Oh, and now they are ranked in the top three. 7-0
- WC: There is a lot to like on this Gopher roster. Some might even say they can win the west. 2-5
- P: This is a HUGE game. If Minnesota wins it, they have a great path to winning the division. If Penn State wins it, they have a good shot at nine wins plus a toss up against MSU. This is seriously make or break time for both squads. I’ll take the home team purely because it is at home. PSU, 24-21, 6-1 (3-1)
Ohio State:
- BC: Home cooking and welcome to a number one ranking. 8-0
- WC: OSU’s offense is as good as expected and PSU’s defense is in la la land with Manny Diaz. 2-6
- P: PSU always plays this game tough, especially at home. Just too much firepower this year for the Bucks. OSU, 27-17, 6-2 (3-2)
At Indiana:
- BC: No hangover as the Hoosiers are mired in an awful, awful year. 9-0
- WC: The upstart Hoosiers win this one for the second time in three years. 2-7
- P: Way too much on paper talent here in the off season to doubt PSU’s ability to win this game. PSU, 28-13, 7-2 (4-2)
Maryland:
- BC: Division race is nearly locked in, CFP berth nearly locked in, just keep trucking. 10-0
- WC: The Turtles come to town and feast on Manny’s overmatched coaching abilities. 2-8
- P: I think these two clubs are more evenly matched than people realize; however, PSU has a slight talent edge and is at home. PSU, 31-28, 8-2 (5-2)
At Rutgers:
- BC: Another step closer to magical dream status. 11-0
- WC: Another step closer to Franklin getting canned. 2-9
- P: Talent favors Penn State as Rutgers is still in a multiyear rebuilding project. PSU, 31-21, 9-2 (6-2)
Michigan State:
- BC: INDY BOUND!!! CFP is sixty minutes away, 12-0
- WC: MSU is Indy bound and 60 minutes from the CFP. 2-10
- P: Lots of people, self included, trying to deduce if MSU is for real or last year was just a fluke. I think there is more “real” there than fluke. And even if MSU can’t run the ball without Walker this year, it’s not like Penn State has much of a running game, either. MSU, 28-24, 9-3 (6-3)
Wrap Up:
This is a season PSU needs to take advantage of. Crossovers against Purdue, Northwestern, and Minnesota are all winnable and two of them are at home. The non conference is set up in a way that going 3-0 is totally realistic. Getting Ohio State and Michigan State at home means you have a good shot at splitting those games. Taking advantage of Indiana, Maryland, and Rutgers in division gets you to a lot of wins. On the flip side though, going 1-2 in those crossover games will obviously get the faithful restless in western PA. Blowing that Auburn game would be a bad omen on the year. Getting swept by Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State again would also be a damning indictment of Franklin’s coaching.
That’s the dual nature of the easier schedule: not taking advantage of it puts your job in major jeopardy because if the winnable games are there and the talent is there, but the final mark isn’t good enough…well that’s how you lose jobs. Franklin needs this season to be a winner. My prediction of 9-3 should be strong enough with the younger core and new DC to keep PSU fans very happy and excited about 2023.
Big Ten and Counting 