Let’s start with the positives about 2021, Rutgers went bowling!!! A clear breakthrough season. Sorry I have to rain on your parade, Rutgers nation. Banner season this was not. They made a bowl at 5-7 thanks to the goofy path with teams dropping out. Once there, RU was outclassed by Wake Forest to end the year 5-8. It gets worse. Of those five wins, just two came in the Big Ten (Illinois and Indiana). Of those five wins, just three came against power league teams (UI, IU, and Syracuse). Two extra wins were found by way of Temple and FCS Delaware. For the eight losses, there were some brutal games. Lost by 49 to Wisconsin, 39 to OSU, 28 to PSU and Wake, 24 to Maryland, and 18 to MSU. In fact, RU’s crowning achievement last year was keeping things tight with Michigan, losing by just 7. If you did the math and are wondering about the 13th game, it was a 21-7 loss to Northwestern.
So ask yourselves this, was RU’s season a success because of a bowl or did a bowl shine up a bad season? If you are in the former camp, you are probably expecting growth this year. If you are in the later group, you are probably awaiting the floor to fall out and RU have another long season. Personally, I’m in the shine up a bad season camp. Rutgers struggled so much on offense last year and as you are about to see, the schedule takes a big jump up. That crossover against Illinois? Not happening. Is Northwestern on the slate? Nope. Sometimes rebuilds are two step forwards, one step back. I think this is a one step back season for Schiano and his club.
A lot of RU hopes are resting on Gavin Wimsatt, the highly touted dual threat QB, turning this offense around. He certainly could, but you will be betting that the freshman is that good on day one as the starter. You are also betting that RU’s completely rebuilt line can protect their young teammate. A pair of occasionally used backs, Kyle Monangai and Aaron Young, will see their workload increase greatly. The receiving core is filled with portal kids and tight ends is, frankly, non-existent. It isn’t possible for RU’s offense to be worse than last year but will any uptick be enough for six wins? Color me skeptical.
Defensively Rutgers wasn’t very good last year but with some really talented individuals, one would think this unit will see improvement. The Knight’s pass rush should be a strength with Aaron Lewis and Kyonte Hamilton. The secondary also has plenty of experience. The trouble area is in the middle of the field with those linebackers. RU saw nearly a hundred combined starts head to the NFL so will be brand spanking new. Worse, there is no depth to this position so if anyone gets hurt or isn’t up to par, options are few and far between. I’ve seen my beloved Iowa teams enter years with similar LB questions and you basically know week one if the defense will be good or not thanks to those LBs.
Special teams are mixed in good and bad terms. The kicking game is a question mark as a new kicker will be called upon. Punter is a different story. Adam Korsak is a Ray Guy finalist from 2021 and one of the nation’s best at flipping the field. He will look to give his defense plenty of long fields as a major asset to RU in his senior season.
2022 Schedule:
At Boston College:
- Best Case: The Eagles went just 6-6 last year. Doug Flutie ain’t walking through that door. 1-0
- Worst Case: BC started really strong before their star QB Jurkovic got hurt. 0-1
- Prediction: Battle between proven talent under center and a freshman? You know what that means. BC, 28-24, 0-1 (0-0)
Wagner:
- BC: The last time the Seahawks won a game was September 28th…2019. 2-0
- WC: Wagner is possibly the single biggest rebuild in all of FCS. Cakewalk. 1-1
- P: I hope Wagner gets good again someday. It won’t be against Rutgers though. RU, 56-3, 1-1 (0-0)
At Temple
- BC: The Owls were a dumpster fire last year going just 3-9 and canning their coach. 3-0
- WC: Rutgers demolished this team a year ago, 61-14, no reason to expect RU struggles in this one. 2-1
- P: How Rod Carey, who was so good at Northern Illinois, tanked so hard at Temple is beyond me. I need a sixty hour podcast documentary series to explain it. RU, 49-7, 2-1 (0-0)
Iowa
- BC: Iowa’s offensively challenged ball club remains a low scoring, plodding, outfit. 4-0
- WC: I will have you know Iowa is undefeated in this rivalry….at 2-0. 2-2
- P: This is the first example of the schedule being tougher for RU. Change Iowa with Illinois, it’s a 50-50 game. Flip with Northwestern, and RU is the favorite. But Iowa? Iowa should pick apart RU’s offensive line and take Wimsatt’s lunch money. Will they? That’s the, um, joy, of being an Iowa fan. But on paper Iowa should win this. UI, 24-14, 2-2 (0-1)
At Ohio State:
- BC: Tall, tall order to win at the Shoe even in the best of years. 4-1
- WC: 50 point lead at halftime. Brutal. 2-3
- P: Rutgers will beat Ohio State some day, it is statistically guaranteed, right? I mean surely there has never been a conference match-up to be 100 victories to none, right? Someday doesn’t mean today though. OSU, 56-14, 2-3 (0-2)
Nebraska
- BC: The dreams of bowling inch ever closer with victory number five. 5-1
- WC: The odds of a second straight bowl plummet with a home loss to rebuilding NU. 2-4
- P: By pure on paper talent, these teams are pretty even. Based on the eye test last year, Nebraska was oddly better despite winning two fewer games. This feels like a toss up in the pit of my stomach. NU, 24-17, 2-4 (0-3)
Indiana:
- BC: Forget the table scraps of “just making a bowl game,” Rutgers is legitimately good. 6-1
- WC: Classic toss up game that RU finds a way to lose. 2-5
- P: Both teams have a lot of new pieces. I like Indiana’s new faces just a skosh more. IU, 27-21, 2-5 (0-4)
At Minnesota:
- BC: What’s that you see, a little 10 next to RU’s name? 7-1
- WC: Just like the Iowa game write up…if this was a different crossover foe, I’d probably like Rutgers a whole lot more. 2-6
- P: Gophers are sneaky experienced this year. This will result in them being sneaky good. UM, 31-21, 2-6 (0-5)
Michigan:
- BC: Well the top ten ranking was fun while it lasted. 7-2
- WC: Didn’t Michigan put 70 up on RU a few years ago? 2-7
- P: Upsets can and do happen, but you don’t predict them in August – otherwise they aren’t upsets! UM, 35-10, 2-7 (0-6)
At Michigan State:
- BC: MSU’s record was boosted a bit by some close call wins, if the breaks go differently this year, they will slide back to the pack. 8-2
- WC: Then again, maybe MSU wins the whole division. 2-8
- P: When I do these predictions, I do them game by game and don’t slot “this team needs [blank] number of wins.” If I did, I would probably slot an upset or two along the way for RU. This game would be a tempting upset. But I don’t do these posts like that. MSU, 28-17, 2-8 (0-7)
Penn State:
- BC: James Franklin gets fired after losing in Piscataway by 24!!! 9-2
- WC: Penn State’s talent is still above RU’s. 2-9
- P: Will Rutgers lose all these games? Probably not. But I treat each game like a new data point. PSU, 31-21, 2-9 (0-8)
At Maryland:
- BC: Well it ain’t a division title but holy cow, TEN wins. Talk about a breakthrough season 10-2
- WC: Greg Schiano is still the right man for the job no matter what! 2-10
- P: Maryland’s offense deserves all the buzz it is getting. I’ll trust the hype in August. UM, 35-28, 2-10 (0-9)
Wrap Up:
I cannot stress these two things enough: one, no matter how sideways this season gets, Schiano’s seat will never get warm, nor should it. He is rebuilding something here at Rutgers and all signs are pointing in the right direction and two, I don’t actually think my predictive season will go that bad. As I said in the games, I go head to head each week. I have no grand vision of how things will play out. In reality, some of the toss up league games (Iowa, Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, Maryland) will go Rutgers’s way. They have to. “That’s football,” as Kirk Ferentz once aptly pointed out. I didn’t pick those games here because I don’t write with the gambler’s fallacy of saying “Rutgers must have seven wins and I have them losing three in a row so let me jimmy a win in right here.” I treat each game as a complete clean slate. As a result, this can hurt certain teams, and this year it was Rutgers. If I did write these posts the other way, I’d say put the five league toss ups plus Boston College in a hat and pick three games. I would then add those three to Wagner and Temple to get five wins. Then I would put OSU, Michigan, MSU, and PSU in a hat and ask myself, does Rutgers have the talent for an upset? Yeah, probably. Then pick one name. Voila, a 6-6 bowl bound team. But that’s a really stupid way to do things because then I’m telling you in August why Rutgers will beat Ohio State and that’s a paragraph I have no clue how to write. So yeah, game by game clean slate is the lesser of two evils, but RU got hosed this year.
Big Ten and Counting 