Staying in the west for a second straight preview because in addition to Northwestern’s terrible season, their NU brothers from Lincoln put in one of the strangest 3-9 (1-8) campaigns possible. Where to start describing the weirdness? The point differential – HUGE wins, close losses is one place. The six game skid after a hard fought 3-3 start is another. What about the opening game loss to Illinois that set the tone for things? You name it, Nebraska did it strangely a year ago…but this is Nebraska. One of the premier programs of the 1980s and 90s. A historically dominant program. This isn’t a goof on Vanderbilt situation, this is a program hungry for wins and just keeps losing. It has cost several coaches their jobs and, depending on how this year goes, will cost current coach (and alum) Scott Frost his job, too.
So here is the million dollar question every Nebraska fan is asking, does Frost save his job? The answer is tough to predict here in August because there are tons – and I mean – TONS of brand new faces and the schedule boasts three difficult road league games plus a non-conference date with Oklahoma. Going 0-4 in those games is possible, meaning Nebraska will need to go 6-2 in the other eight to make a bowl. No small task once you see the schedule.
A good place to start with Nebraska’s changes is with their exciting and frustrating quarterback Adrian Martinez. After years of brilliant flashes and dumbfounding mistakes, Martinez is gone, transferring to Kansas State. Replacing him is a fellow transfer, Casey Thompson (Texas). Thompson had an awesome season last year…when he played. In just eight games he had 18 attempts or more. Injuries kept sending him in and out of the lineup but without a doubt the potential is there. Against Oklahoma for instance he went 20/34 for 388 yards and 5 TDs (0 INTs). What Nebraska is losing in Martinez’s running ability is more than replaced with a much better thrower.
The other massive change to NU’s offense comes up in the booth with new OC Mark Whipple. He is coming off a brilliant season guiding Pitt’s high octane passing offense that saw the Panthers win the whole enchilada in the ACC. With the clear upgrades under center and in the booth, Nebraska’s offense – which was statistically awesome last year – should become even scarier.
I say “should become” and not “will become” because of some real issues. Remember how I mentioned a lot of new faces? Well on the OL, star center Cam Jurgens is now getting paid in the NFL and the talented veteran tackles both missed spring practice with injuries. They need to get healthy ASAP and they need their new OL coach to get them into a rhythm without as much practice time as any of them would like.
New faces galore in the WR and RB rooms, too. TE Austin Allen went pro and the other TEs have all been banged up during practices. Between missed practice time, tons of new coaches, and tons of new faces, anyone saying Nebraska’s offense will be amazing is betting on Thompson staying healthy and someone, ANYONE emerging from a whole mess of unknowns.
Defense continues the trend of new, newer, and newest faces getting playing time. Leading tackler Luke Reimer (ILB) is back as well as three other team leaders in tackles. Secondary asset Quinton Newsom will be busy in a mostly rebuilt back end to the defense. This pretty much concludes the big name portion of NU’s defense.
My single biggest worry about NU’s defense is the line. Every player had to be replaced AND Frost is starting anew with, you guessed it, another new position coach. I’m not saying Nebraska can’t construct a good defensive line under these constraints but it is extremely hard. Continuity along the lines is critical as any missed play in the trenches can gash you. With run heavy teams like Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin in the division, this massive question mark for Nebraska is a red flag for me.
Finally we get to the keystone cops last year, Nebraska’s special teams. How bad was it? Well against Illinois a punt was fielded inside the 5 (dumb), the momentum took him into the endzone (dumber), then in desperation he passed it forward (beyond dumb), and the play resulted in a safety (hilarious). I can honestly say I’ve never seen a punt turn into 2 points for the punting team. Surely that was just week one hiccups, right? Nope. It never got better. Kicks were missed left, right, and short. Punt returns galore given up – including a massive game changing touchdown to Michigan State. It was an absolute disaster. Assigned to fix this is Bill Busch, who was an analyst last year for Nebraska but was special teams coordinator in the 2000s. The good news is when you are starting at rock bottom, there is only one way to go.
2022 Schedule:
Northwestern:
- Best Case: Hey remember last year’s 56-7 win? Let’s do that again. 1-0
- Worst Case: Distracted by the beauty of Ireland, the Huskers give up two safeties on consecutive punts. How? No one knows. 0-1
- Prediction: NU (Purple) has essentially the same issues as NU (Red): tons and tons of new faces. The difference is the Cornhusker potential to score thanks to Thompson makes them the safer bet. Nebraska, 38-21, 1-0 (1-0)
North Dakota:
- BC: No Dak was one of the best stories of the FCS spring COVID year but struggled last year. If all goes according to plan, NU should have the starters pulled at the half. 2-0
- WC: I suppose injuries that impact the season later on are always a possibility but Frost’s seat is way too hot to get cute in this game and blow it. 1-1
- P: Fighting Hawks fans won’t lose too much sleep about this game, they are a hockey school afterall. NU, 56-10, 2-0 (1-0)
Georgia Southern
- BC: The once proud Eagles went 3-9 last year and fired their coach four games in. 3-0
- WC: It is cool to see all round good guy Clay Helton get another bite at the head coaching apple, but he is facing a massive rebuild. 2-1
- P: Now I’m not saying NU was hunting for some easy wins knowing that the OU rivalry had been rekindled, but the stretch of NDU and GSU is oftly soft. NU, 49-13, 3-0 (1-0)
Oklahoma
- BC: Lincoln Riley was scurrrrred, of big boy football, amirite? 4-0
- WC: This is a story for another day, but I actually think Lincoln Riley is a pretty overrated coach. I know the breakup was messy but OU may ultimately win the divorce over the next few years. 2-2
- P: It is tempting to talk yourself into doom and gloom for Oklahoma with all the new faces but they were a top destination in the portal, Brent Venables was an amazing coordinator who saw how to run a great program at Clemson. Maybe they aren’t a playoff team, but I’m not ready to say Nebraska is going to get ‘em this year. OU, 35-21, 3-1 (1-1)
Indiana:
- BC: IU and the two NUs all have a lot of new faces on the staff and in the two-deep. Of the teams to emerge from those three, your best bet is Nebraska. 5-0
- WC: Of course maybe Indiana is the one that emerges. 2-3
- P: I like the NU quarterback and home field advantage in this one. NU, 28-24, 4-1 (2-0)
At Rutgers
- BC: Feels like the loser of this game has zero hope for a bowl. 6-0
- WC: Oh god, what if RU goes bowling for real this year? That would have to make the east the best division in football, no? 2-4
- P: I really don’t know what to make of RU. They won five games last year but their offense was a disaster. I’m just not sure what their talent level really is since I think they massively overachieved a season ago. NU, 24-17, 5-1 (3-0)
At Purdue:
- BC: It would be the most Purdue thing ever to have an offseason of hype result in a terrible year. 7-0
- WC: At what point will Frost be fired if things go poorly? Will they let him end the year? 2-5
- P: I’m buying the Purdue hype…somewhat. I don’t have them winning the west like some do but I think they are a solid bowl bound team and should win this game at home. PU, 45-38, 5-2 (3-1)
Illinois:
- BC: Umm, is Nebraska going to the Big Ten title game folks? 8-0
- WC: Umm, is Bret Bielema winning COY folks? 2-6
- P: Hmm, a team with a DL I don’t trust going against the biggest run-first, have a massive OL coach in the nation? Sometimes I pick on match-ups. This is one of those times. UI, 24-21, 5-3 (3-2)
Minnesota:
- BC: Thompson is a full on Heisman candidate by this point as Nebraska’s offense is averaging 42 points per game. 9-0
- WC: Minnesota is marching towards an improbable run to Indy thanks to taking care of business against the weak teams. 2-7
- P: In a division with a lot of uncertainty, I actually really like the experience on this Gopher roster. UM, 28-24, 5-4 (3-3)
At Michigan:
- BC: Can still win the west, can still win the league. 9-1
- WC: Harbaugh is classy and doesn’t run up the score knowing Frost’s time is short. 2-8
- P: Wolverines are way closer to getting back to the CFP than they are falling apart. Solid outfit out there in Ann Arbor. UM, 31-17, 5-5 (3-4)
Wisconsin:
- BC: Badgers QB play was awful at times last year. What if that still isn’t fixed? 10-1
- WC: Oh wait, UW can always just run it. 2-9
- P: Just like the Illinois game, strength vs weakness in this one. Give me the strong side. UW, 38-7, 5-6 (3-5)
At Iowa:
- BC: West champs, baby! 11-1
- WC: Iowa wins their second straight west division and Nebraska has an even worse season than last year. 2-10
- P: If Nebraska has a five game skid like I predicted heading into this one, it’s over. Frost will have already announced his retirement or the school with the firing. They’ll have no heart in this one as Iowa sends their seniors out right. UI, 21-10, 5-7 (3-6)
Wrap Up:
So those of you who listen to my podcast will know I have been consistent on Scott Frost from the get go: his time at UCF wasn’t his creation. He inherited an already strong program built by George O’Leary. The number one thing he did was not screw it up. He turned that not screwing it up into getting the Nebraska job. He has been over his head the moment he arrived. Blowing up your staff is the last act of a desperate man who has no more answers. I’m not sure even a pedestrian bowl at 6-6 or 7-5 saves his job. Nebraska missed their chance at getting someone like Brent Venables by keeping Frost around this extra season. The payoff will be more pain as this woefully inexperienced and new look roster will continue to make the same sloppy mistakes that all of Frost’s teams have made. Stick a fork in him, he’s done.
Big Ten and Counting 