Raise your hands if you like roller coasters! Great. Now raise your other hand if you like Northwestern football! Those of you with two arms up in the air must love the last several seasons of Cardiac Cat action. In 2018 Northwestern won the west going 9-5 (8-1). EIGHT league wins. Awesome stuff. In 2019 3-9 (1-8). Ooopsies. In 2020 another high at 7-2 (6-1) and claimed the division title. Last year? 3-9 (1-8). What in the Sam Hell is going on in Evanston?
The list of possible answers is long and varied but I think three big key things are, well, key. The first has been quarterback play. In 2018 senior Clayton Thorson capped a solid collegiate career with reliable – if not out of this world – numbers. In 2019 Hunter Johnson was supposed to take command and he was awful. Aiden Smith then got the nod and he was equally wretched. Long time OC Mike McCall was also gone after the terrible year. In 2020 Indiana grad transfer Peyton Ramsey was able to recreate the Thorson mode of solid, albeit unspectacular, play. They also had some new looks with new OC Mike Bajakian. Last year three quarterbacks all attempted at least 75 passes and as a team they had 13 TDs to 14 INTs. The second key is replacing a legend. Mike Hakwitz was an outstanding DC and last year Jim O’Neil failed to provide reliable defense. Lastly, everything feels stale.
Pat Fitzgerald has been at Northwestern since 2006. They still play that dumb wildcat sound, they still dink and dunk down the field, even their “new” uniforms are a throwback retrolook and were designed about eight years ago at this point. The thing about having a system is it is great…when you have the talent to outweigh the predictability. Iowa has had the same base defense for 500 years. It works when their linebackers are really good because they will never ever show you a dime or nickel look and when the LBs aren’t really good, Iowa’s defense struggles mightily. There is no film session to do with playing Iowa. Northwestern has become that.
What NU did in the late 1990s and early 2000s was really unique to the Big Ten and they had a lot of success with it, including going to a Rose Bowl. Hopefully the massive building project to modernize Ryan Field will bleed over into the play calling becoming something different because Northwestern will not have reliable talent like Michigan or Ohio State to keep trotting out the same old same old. When Northwestern has dips in talent – especially at quarterback – they aren’t equipped to steal some wins and still go bowling, they generally faceplant like they did in 2019 and 2021. So is this even year magic or is Northwestern in for another long year?
Well any improvement in record will come with improvement at…you guessed it…quarterback. South Carolina transfer Ryan Hilinski got the lion’s share of the work last year in the trio of mediocrity that the Cats rolled out. But this year should be different since he has had all offseason to work with Bajakian and become an expert in the system. Senior Andrew Marty is also back from the trio. He had some flashes a year ago so with more reps in the system, perhaps he can step in if Hilinski gets hurt or struggles. The third member, Hunter Johnson, transferred to Clemson.
The good news is, if Northwestern can get their QB play going, they should have some nice weapons. The receiving group was a MASH unit a year ago so with better injury luck they should be more reliable in the skill position group. At RB, Cam Porter is back following his ACL injury. Joining him is Evan Hull, who filled in last year. Hull did great after being thrust in the spotlight, rushing for a thousand yards.
In front of all this is a solid offensive line. Anchored by all-American candidate Peter Skoronski, this is a veteran group with tons of game experience. With the protection these guys provide, you would think Northwestern could cut down on their interceptions and turnovers overall to become at least competent when on offense. Honestly, they can’t get any worse than what they did last year.
Defense is another story. Did it stink because of Jim O’Neil’s scheme? Playcalling? Talent? Glass half full people would say: “Look, we had a ton of new starters. Our 2020 defense basically all graduated so we had a ton of new players and career second stringers starting. There’s nothing wrong with defensive coaching.” Glass half empty people would say: “You replaced a legend with the wrong dude, full stop.”
Let’s give the staff the benefit of the doubt and say it was a talent issue. Well…has that been resolved? Not really. There will still be a lot of new faces. The transfer portal was used a lot by Northwestern to hopefully boost the talent but getting guys from Indiana State and UMass is still an unknown result. Can they play in the Big Ten? Northwestern is gambling that they can.
The best unit for NU’s beleaguered defense will be the secondary with Cameron Mitchell and AJ Hampton Jr as very experienced corners. Bryce Ghallager is a really good linebacker so if his partners in the middle can get sorted out, the ‘Cats might have a little something brewing. I’m not overly optimistic; however, I think NU’s best path to wins this year is for the offense to come through and win games 31-28. I just don’t see enough plugged into this defense to be a believer, even with “even year” magic.
Hey, Mr. Cook, where the hell is your NU special teams preview? Okay, okay, I’ll make it short and sweet. They are replacing a four year starter kicker with junior Jack Olson getting first dibs on holding the kicking duties and the punter is UCLA transfer Luke Akers – son of the former NFL kicker, David Akers. Ya happy, you ingrate?
2022 Schedule:
Nebraska:
- Best Case: How funny on a scale of 1 to 10 would it be if Scott Frost missed the flight to Ireland and the Cornhuskers lost because Frost’s replacement got a personal foul for punching a referee, putting NU (purple) in field goal range on the last drive? 1-0
- Worst Case: Pat Fitzgerald gets overwhelmed by being back in the old country and forgets to coach the game. 0-1
- Prediction: Nebraska has a new quarterback from Texas, Casey Thompson, and a new OC from Pitt, Mark Whipple. The problem is their OL is banged up right now and the best player on that line left. The skill position groups are also untested. Oh, and this is the first game for all these new faces. I honestly think the best time to catch Nebraska is at the start of the year. Having said that, NU (red) won this game 56-7 a year ago. Nebraska, 38-21, 0-1 (0-1)
Duke:
- BC: Cutcliffe retired after a wonderful career at Duke, tainted by staying three seasons too long. 2-0
- WC: Duke is in the running for the worst power conference team this year. 1-1
- P: It isn’t inconceivable for Duke to go winless against the FBS this year. NU, 42-14, 1-1 (0-1)
Southern Illinois
- BC: Tasty FCS cooking. 3-0
- WC: Southern gave a scare to Kansas State and made the playoffs last year. Can’t sleep on them too much. 2-1
- P: SIU is a nice FCS program but after a 3-9 season last year, Northwestern cannot drop a game like this. They’ll get the job done. NU, 45-21, 2-1 (0-1)
Miami (OH)
- BC: RedHawks went just 7-6 last year. You can’t lose to a middle pack MAC team at home, right? 4-0
- WC: They won a bowl and nearly upset Minnesota last year. Hmmm, 2-2
- P: Love what Chuck Martin has done to turn around Miami and they could certainly win this game. I’m giving the edge to the Big Ten club playing at home however. NU, 35-31, 3-1 (0-1)
At Penn State:
- BC: Penn State and Northwestern share something in common…They both lost to Illinois last year. 5-0
- WC: The defense is dreadful for a second straight year and the offense can’t score for a second straight year. Things get ugly in a hurry. 2-3
- P: It is possible the days of Franklin’s program being at UM and OSU’s level may be done but they are still really talented and playing at home. They should win this game nine times out of ten. PSU, 38-10, 3-2 (0-2)
Wisconsin:
- BC: A few years ago Northwestern won this game after UW set a world record with 273 fumbles. 6-0
- WC: Who schedules this game for homecoming? Jesus. 2-4
- P: I didn’t write much about NU’s defensive line. Will that be an issue when facing Wisconsin? UW, 35-3, 3-3 (0-3)
At Maryland:
- BC: Maryland has a lot of returning pieces and there is a buzz around the program. They are also coached by a guy with a career record of 15-49, so….7-0
- WC: The Terps won a bowl last year. They are better on paper, especially at quarterback. 2-5
- P: With the schedule Maryland has, it’s tough to see them bowling without this crossover win. Of course tough to see NU making a bowl without this win, either. Should make for a fun viewing experience. Giving the edge to the home team. UM, 42-38, 3-4 (0-4)
At Iowa:
- BC: Classic Wildcat garbage win over my Hawks. 8-0
- WC: You wouldn’t know it from last year’s 17-12 win, but Iowa has blown out Northwestern in the past. 2-6
- P: Northwestern always, always, always plays Iowa really tough. Their dink and dunk style puts a lot of stress on Iowa’s insistence on staying in the base 4-3. As a result, expect a tight game no matter the records. Still taking my Hawkeyes though as their talent on paper is superior and they are the home team. UI, 28-21, 3-5 (0-5)
Ohio State:
- BC: Well it was a good run, but the Buckeyes knock off the Cats in the Game Day game in front of an electric crowd on a last second field goal. 8-1
- WC: Over at halftime. 2-7
- P: It feels like such a gut punch when rebuilding teams have to play Ohio State. Just not enough talent yet to compete for four quarters. OSU, 49-14, 3-6 (0-6)
At Minnesota:
- BC: Despite the loss, there is still a chance for a title game rematch! 9-1
- WC: Just put in every freshman and build for next year. 2-8
- P: The Gophers bring back their old OC who was good, to replace their now gone OC who was trash. Gophers could be a threat in the west. UM, 35-28, 3-7 (0-7)
At Purdue:
- BC: The Boilers are to the B1G west as Maryland is to the B1G east. A lot of buzz but will they sizzle all season? NU is marching towards Indy 10-1
- WC: What if the Boilers are the surprise team marching towards Indy? 2-9
- P: Until the games are played there is no way of knowing if the hype train around Purdue is justified or not. But here in August, PU has way more positives going than NU. PU, 38-24, 3-8 (0-8)
Illinois:
- BC: West champs, baby! 11-1
- WC: The Illini are going bowling while NU is suddenly wondering aloud if Fitzgerald is what is wrong with the program. 2-10
- P: If Tommy DeVito (Syaracuse) can at all be serviceable, Illinois should be a bowl team this year thanks to wins against five teams plus…Northwestern. UI, 28-24, 3-9 (0-9)
Wrap Up:
First and foremost, if my predictions come true this will bring about a 6-18 (1-17) stretch over two seasons but this will do nothing to impact Fitz’s standing with Northwestern, nor should it. The brutal truth is Northwestern is going through a rebuilding phase at the exact same time their crossover games are a nightmare. The only thing worse than OSU, PSU, Maryland would have been finding a way to get either Michigan team. What this year needs to be about is developing a young core for next season and figuring out if they have the right defensive coordinator or not. Yes Northwestern projects to be among the worst teams in the league but if you see the scores I have predicted here, I don’t think this is like past years where you had Rutgers being 50 point underdogs. Northwestern is rebuilding, not awful, not hopeless. Northwestern is just working out some kinks….okay, a lot of kinks on defense.
Big Ten and Counting 