Well folks, my sabbatical is over! What’s it been? A decade? Seriously, I got out of blogging as life got super busy but I always missed it so I said screw missing it, I need to find a way to get back into it. With college football right around the corner, there was no better time to re-launch this website. So how do these Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction posts work for the new readers? Well, I talk about what happened in 2021, highlight a few key names, and then run through the schedule – saying the best case season, the worst case season, and then what I’m predicting happens. The best and worst case seasons are hypothetical extremes that rarely come true, but highlight the theoretical floor or ceiling for a team. Lastly, I do these based on the final standings last year. That means, Indiana has the dubious honor of going first.
I love Indiana football…is not something you would expect me to write. But I do. Going to Bloomington is one of my favorite trips when it comes up for my Hawkeyes. The stadium is really nice since the renovations and the town is amazing. This concludes the nice things about Indiana football as they crashed and burned last year going a dreadful 2-10 (0-9).
What made the winless season so surprising is that IU went 14-7 in 2019-2020 with both seasons ending in bowls. They were improving! I thought Indiana was in a really safe place of being a middle tier Big Ten team that goes bowling more often than not. Something we Big Ten folks call the Glen Mason era of Minnesota football. Indiana was Masoning!
So what happened last year? I think two main factors are clearly at play – and they are a chicken and egg issue. Michael Penix Jr and the terrible offense. Now was Penix struggling because he was rushed back from injury and that derailed the rest of the offense OR was the offense awful and Penix not being fully healthy prevented him from covering up all the ugliness like he did in 2020? The answer is, yes.
Both of these issues are addressed for 2022. Penix has since transferred to Washington where he will try to prevent the stink of Jimmy Lake from doing any more damage and OC Nick Sheridan was pink slipped. Speaking of transfers, an attractive one has come to the Hoosier state to replace Penix as QB1.
Head coach Tom Allen is turning to Walt Bell who had a good reputation as an offensive mind before becoming the UMass coach. The Minutemen went just 2-23 under his watch but their program was a joke before he got there and will continue to be one without him. Don’t hold the time in Amherst against Mr. Bell….well at least not yet. If IU’s offense is wretched, let the jokes fly.
As for that transfer, it is Connor Bazelak from Mizzou. As the Tiger’s starter the last two seasons, Bazelak put up some impressive numbers: over 65% completion in both years, over 2300 yards in both years, and a positive TD to INT ratio. He still has aspects of his game to clean up, including way too many interceptions – 17 of them (he did have 23 TDs though).
So what Allen, Bell, and Bazelak need to do is improve a unit that averaged just 17 points per game a year ago. Making this task harder is the OL struggled last year, the running back position is all new faces, and the receiving group is untested. Good luck, folks. There is some intriguing talent here though. WR DJ Matthews JR showed flashes last year before an injury prematurely ended his season and 4 star recruit Jaquez Smith redshirted last year and ready for his debut this season. Up front the Hoosiers do have experience with three starters back. Obviously they need to play better than last year but experience is at least a starting point to build.
Last note about the offense, if Bazelak flames out as a lackluster transfer, Senior Jack Tuttle has been competing well in camp. There are also a few mobile guys further down the bench if IU needs them.
Let’s get to the other side of the ball. It stunk last year. Dead last in the Big Ten. 33.2 ppg. Yuck. A year earlier that was just 20.3 points per game. A two touchdown swing is pretty drastic and the answer might be as simple as wrong guy, wrong time. IU brought in DC Charlton Walton last year but he peaced out for North Carolina. Basically he had one lousy debut season and then left. This gives Indiana a huge opportunity because Tom Allen is taking over play calling duties on defense. Tom Allen knows defense. This could be huge. Helping things is Minnesota DC Chad Wilt is coming in to assist Allen.
Based on the struggles and losing leading tackler Micah McFadden, it is probably no shock that the Hoosiers looked to the portal to help boost things. JH Tevis (Cal), Myles Jackson (UCLA) and Bradley Jennings Jr (Miami-FL) all saw the field at their previous schools, especially Tevis, who started a buttload of games on the Golden Bears’ line as a tackle, so these three should help mightly.
Homegrown defensive players are found with the speedy Cam Jones – a fifth-year player who was a leader in tackles last year and Dasan McCullough, who will be making his debut as an edge / LB. McCullough was the 75th rated recruit nationally for his class, the crown jewel of the Hoosier 2021 recruiting efforts.
Saving the best for last, IU’s secondary should be the best unit on either side of the ball. Both corners and safeties have starting experience with senior leaders in Taiwan Mullen and Jaylin Williams to keep an eye on. If this unit can get some timely interceptions, IU’s defense should improve and their win-loss should also tick upwards.
Kicker Charles Campbell hit 13 of 18 for field goals and was 100% on PATs so he was plenty serviceable last year. I think he has a lot of potential however and can be beyond serviceable. In 2020 he was 10/11 on FGs and has yet to miss a PAT in his career. His career long is 55 so there is plenty of leg. Honestly, he should be on the watch list for the Bakken-Andersen to start the year. Punter has plenty of options to go with.
2022 Schedule:
Vs Illinois:
- Best Case: Illinois was a pleasant surprise last year going 5-7. Those losses included juggernauts like UTSA and Rutgers. 1-0
- Worst Case: I mean Illinois did win four league games last year. Indiana went winless. 0-1
- Prediction: Could there be more of a toss up? On paper both teams are in the same place, desperate to win this one to boost their bowl hopes. Illinois has a slight edge thanks to having a game a week earlier. Illinois, 24-17, 0-1 (0-1)
Idaho:
- BC: The drop to FCS hasn’t helped Idaho all that much record wise. 2-0
- WC: If the Vandals somehow won this one, I think we can start a countdown to Tom Allen getting fired in days, not months. 1-1
- P: As bad as Indiana was last year…they still won this game! They dropped 56 on them a season ago. Let’s go with the identical store. Indiana, 56-14, 1-1 (0-1)
Western Kentucky:
- BC: IU traveled to WKU a season ago and survived! They beat them again. 3-0
- WC: It was a 2 point game and the Hilltoppers are a pretty solid C-USA program. Speaking of C-USA, is that still around? 1-2
- P: Hoosiers should be a lot better than last year thanks to their fixes on offense and Allen taking more on defensively. I’m not sure how many wins those changes will translate to, but I got them winning this one. IU, 31-21, 2-1 (0-1)
At Cincinnati:
- BC: Indiana did only lose this game by 14 a season ago…Lots of new faces for the Bearcats…crazier things have happened, right? Right? 4-0
- WC: Luke Fickell has this program humming and they’re about to become a Big 12 club. They like statement wins like this. 1-3
- P: Obviously UC has a ton of new faces but at this point they are the better program and they are playing at home. Need to trust them more than the Indiana rebuild. UC, 28-14, 2-2 (0-1)
At Nebraska:
- BC: Humiliated by Oklahoma, Scott Frost’s hot seat is a raging inferno. Meanwhile Indiana is quietly putting together a dream opening half of the season. 5-0
- WC: If Indiana’s offense is as bad as last year, they can’t be trusted to win games even against fellow mid and lower tier teams. 1-4
- P: Both teams have a lot of new faces, including under center, so when there is a toss up of that magnitude, I ride with the home team. NU, 28-24, 2-3 (0-2)
Michigan:
- BC: The defending league champions are among the elite in the B1G. Tough to see IU winning this one even if everything goes right this year. 5-1
- WC: I legitimately like Tom Allen. I think he is a really good coach and done some great stuff at Indiana, I just hope two down years in a row doesn’t cost him his job. 1-5
- P: Even an improved Hoosier team will take their lumps this year. This is one of those lumps. UM, 42-17, 2-4 (0-3)
Maryland:
- BC: Maryland has a lot of returning pieces and there is a buzz around the program. They are also coached by a guy with a career record of 15-49, so….6-1
- WC: The Terps won a bowl last year. They are better on paper, especially at quarterback. 1-6
- P: This is a critical game for both teams. With the Big Ten East being such a grind, Rutgers, Maryland, and Indiana are always hoping to beat the other two to make a bowl. With that in mind, I have Maryland making a bowl from that group. Terps escape for the second year in a row. UM, 31-28, 2-5 (0-4)
At Rutgers:
- BC: Not only is IU bowling but they are climbing up the bowl rankings with yet another victory. 7-1
- WC: Rutgers is going bowling by feasting on teams like IU. 1-7
- P: Rutgers went 5-8 last year. Yes they made a bowl in a very strange route but don’t be fooled. I think the new look Hoosiers break through on the road and snap the league losing streak. IU, 27-21, 3-5 (1-4)
Penn State:
- BC: Remember how Penn State fell apart last season? Remember how Penn State struggled to a 4-5 mark in 2020? What if these weren’t a strange collapse or a weird COVID thing but the emergence of a bad stretch of Penn State football that will get Franklin canned? 8-1
- WC: Uh-oh, I’m not feeling good about Allen keeping his job…1-8
- P: With PSU’s struggles the last two years I don’t know if you can take anything for granted until we see them in action this year but Franklin is a great recruiter so the talent on paper in August indicates Penn State should win this game. PSU, 28-13, 3-6 (1-5)
At Ohio State:
- BC: There is no shame in being 8-2 after 10 games and losing at the Shoe. 8-2
- WC: Zero fight even shown. Give up 49 by halftime. 1-9
- P: This is just a mean schedule for an IU team trying to rebuild this year. OSU, 56-10, 3-7 (1-6)
At Michigan State:
- BC: Sparty won 11 games last year!!! What if, hear me out, it was lucky? 3 point winners vs Nebraska and Penn State. 5 point winners against Indiana. They could come back to the pack while Indiana is having the lucky season 9-2
- WC: Going through the motions to just play out the string. 1-10
- P: Is MSU back or was last year a flash in the pan? We will know well before the penultimate game of the season but with so many months between now and when this game is played, I’ll take the team that was so resilient a year ago. MSU, 35-24, 3-8 (1-7)
Purdue:
- BC: Ten wins, ranked, bowling, AND beat their archrival. 10-2
- WC: 1 win, dead last, coach fired, AND lose to their archrival. 1-11
- P: Purdue is similar to Maryland – coming off a bowl win and lots of excitement. On paper they are clearly better than Indiana. PU, 28-17, 3-9 (1-8)
Wrap Up:
Let me start by saying improving from 2 wins to 3 and 0 league wins to 1 may not be the sexiest of improvements but there are a lot of schedule losses on this. The Big Ten east slate is daunting. The crossovers with Nebraska and Prudue aren’t fun. Having your debut be against an Illinois team that has a game the week before to tune up isn’t ideal. Cincinnati out of conference is commendable but difficult. Imagine if the Illinois game was a true opener for both teams. That would give Indiana better chances of winning, slide ‘em to 4-8. Imagine if instead of UC, the Hoosiers were taking on Bowling Green instead, shift ‘em to 5-7. Imagine if instead of traveling to Lincoln, the Hoosiers were hosting Northwestern, push ‘em to 6-6 and a bowl.
What I’m trying – and poorly, I’m sure – to say is that Indiana will be better in 2022 than they were in 2021. Will that translate to a bunch more wins and a bowl? Unfortunately no, but if they can get meaningful reps for their younger players and create a nice foundation for next year, a return to the postseason in 2023 feels doable.
And hey, even if it is a long season, they have a fantastic stadium with great sightlines and a wonderful college town to check out after the game. There are worse ways to endure a stinker of a season. After all, you could be a championship-less Purdue basketball fan.
Big Ten and Counting 