Ah, the what might have been bowl. With a few different bounces, this could have been the Rose Bowl. Michigan State boasts a solid defense, including an outstanding rush defense, yet too many offensive issues cost them too many games. Oregon enjoys the talents of an outstanding quarterback and a pretty electric offense but too many times their defense struggled. Because of those issues, these two meet in the Bay Area instead of Pasadena.
How did Michigan State get here?
Well they made a bowl thanks to the number one ranked rushing defense (81.3 ypg) and overall a great defense. That unit came up big in wins against Purdue, Maryland, Rutgers, and most impressively at Penn State. The offense had plenty of bad weeks but three thirty point outings in the first four weeks (Utah State, Indiana, and Central Michigan) were more than enough to get the Spartans to a bowl game. Wretched offensive outings at Arizona State, vs Northwestern, vs Michigan, vs Ohio State, and at Nebraska kept this from being a truly special season in East Lansing.
It is easy to rag on the MSU offense but there were a lot of issues for this side of the ball. The first were injuries. Starting QB Brian Lewerke missed chunks of time and running back LJ Scott was limited to just four games all season. Then came strange coaching calls. Connor Heyward was having a nice season for the banged up Scott and yet he had multiple games with five or fewer carries – why? There was also overall ineffectiveness. Both Lewerke and his replacement Rocky Lombardi had uneven seasons. Lewerke was an interception machine when he played and Lombardi was under 45 % completion percentage. These factors added up to MSU finishing a putrid 116th in yards per game and a wretched 122nd in scoring per game. This is how a championship level defense ends up in the Redbox Bowl and not something more prestigious.
How did Oregon get here?
Being good but not among the elite in the Pac 12. Three of Oregon’s four losses were pretty damn impressive: Stanford, at Washington State, and at Utah. Yeah the Arizona game wasn’t too hot but the Ducks did beat Pac 12 champ Washington and fellow Pac 12 bowl clubs Arizona State and Cal. So yeah, Justin Herbert’s quarterbacking was the headline but this was still a pretty dangerous club and with a little bit more consistency on defense, the Ducks could have found themselves in the conference title game.
Who will win…and why?
Even with LJ Scott playing in the bowl game before he bounces to the NFL, I don’t see how Sparty has enough offense to hang with the Ducks.
How to watch
- Date: December 31
- Time: 2:00 pm, central
- TV: Fox
- Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Gambling Guide
- Oregon -2.0, Over / Under 47.5
Maybe the Spartans slow down Oregon some and hold them to 21 but in what universe can MSU score three touchdowns? Ducks win big.
Lightning Round for Non-Readers:
Michigan State/Oregon – Ducks
Big Ten and Counting 