A classic bowl scenario: the over-achiever versus the under-achiever. In Dan Mullen’s first year with the Gators, Florida was expected to be a little frisky, win some games, get to a bowl but not much more than that. Instead they won nine games overall and were 5-3 in the SEC. A marvelous debut season in Gainsville. Michigan on the other hand came in with a boatload of talent and an extremely talented quarterback in Shea Patterson to guide Michigan over the hump. Instead they lost their opener to Notre Dame then got spanked in the finale against Ohio State. Forget the “playoffs,” Michigan couldn’t even win their own division of the Big Ten…again. Michigan couldn’t even win their super bowl against Ohio State…again.
How did Michigan get here?
Well the Peach Bowl is historic so Michigan obviously did something right along the way and that was play incredible defense. During their ten game winning streak only SMU, Maryland, and Indiana scored 20 or 21 points. Everyone else was under 20. The streak included dominate performances over Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan State. The run also included a gritty road win at western champ Northwestern. So no, Michigan didn’t live up to expectations thanks to eight bad quarters but the other 40 quarters? They were pretty damn good.
How did Florida get here?
Smoke and mirrors. Seriously. Florida squeezed every bit of offense they could out of Felipe Franks and had some timely special teams and defensive plays to win nine games. It wasn’t always pretty (i.e. the 13-7 win over Mississippi State) but it was effective in pulling a big upset against LSU. So what went wrong in the three losses? Well one was to Georgia. That was just a talent issue. The other was to Missouri. Mizzou has an amazing quarterback who had an amazing day. Finally there was the loss to Kentucky. The Wildcats have an amazing defense and an all-star at running back. Outside of no-showing in the 21 point loss to Missouri, Florida’s losses were to be expected. What wasn’t expected was beating Mississippi State, LSU, and sweeping Tennessee/Vanderbilt/South Carolina/Florida State to pad the win total.
Who will win…and why?
In many ways Michigan is a better form of Kentucky. UM and UK both have outstanding defenses. Kentucky has the edge in running back play, especially with Karan Higdon sitting out the bowl, but Michigan has the edge in quarterback play. So theoretically Michigan should reproduce a lot of what UK did and defeat Florida. The problem with green lighting the Michigan pick is Higdon isn’t the only Wolverine ditching this game. Three defensive starters are also preparing for the NFL draft. One senior that is playing, Chase Winovich, will have to help shoulder that production that went out the window. Is Michigan deep enough to overcome this? I THINK so, but this bowl game is certainly a lot more interesting now that Michigan isn’t playing with a full deck.
How to watch
- Date: December 29
- Time: 11:00 am, central
- TV: ESPN
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Gambling Guide
- Michigan -6.0, Over / Under 51.0
Mullens is 5-2 in bowl games so even though Michigan is more talented and probably should win this game, I expect Florida to keep it closer than those six points. Michigan wins by a field goal and we are good. Michigan gets upset and we are good. The points is actually the safer pick.
Lightning Round for Non-Readers:
Michigan/Florida – Points
Big Ten and Counting 