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2018 Week 15 Poll

So Northwestern was ranked 21st in the poll, lost their title game, and got booted by the AP.  They were penalized for an extra game.  That is…not smart, unless you can back up your argument.

Real AP Poll:

  1. Alabama (61)
  2. Clemson
  3. Notre Dame
  4. Oklahoma – Holy crap, they only gave up 27 points!
  5. Ohio State
  6. Georgia
  7. UCF – This is an absolute joke.  The team is 25-0 over the last two years.  Is the American a weaker conference than the SEC?  Sure, I agree.  Is it worse than the Big Ten?  Probably – OSU, Michigan, and Penn State are strong teams without question.  Is it worse than the Big 12 or Pac 12?  Maybe, although both leagues have a ton of struggles.  Is it worse than the ACC?  Tough to tell.  In the ACC vs AAC games, it was an even 3-3 but one of those losses for the AAC was Temple, who also beat a Big Ten team.  Another AAC loser was UConn who was dreadful.  This also doesn’t take into account AAC vs other power-five teams like Houston who knocked off Arizona, Cincy who beat UCLA, or USF who beat both Georgia Tech and Illinois.  The bottom line is league is damn good and much, much, MUCH closer to the power-five than to the group of five (now four to me).
  8. Michigan
  9. Washington
  10. Florida
  11. LSU
  12. Washington State
  13. Penn State
  14. Texas
  15. West Virginia
  16. Kentucky
  17. Syracuse
  18. Mississippi State
  19. Fresno State
  20. Utah – Nice to see the Pac 12 refs remaining a national joke.
  21. Texas A&M
  22. Army
  23. Boise State
  24. Missouri – Duh, I’ve had them ranked a while.
  25. Iowa State – Got a scare by Drake but for those of you unfamiliar with the Bulldogs, they are in the Pioneer Football Conference, a league that doesn’t give scholarships and is in Des Moines but can never get Iowa or Iowa State to schedule them.  This was Drake’s super bowl and they played their asses off.  I thought it would be a closer game than folks were saying because of the chip on their shoulders Drake would come in with.

Dropped: Northwestern (21)

Receiving Votes: Northwestern, Utah State, NC State, Cincinnati, Stanford, Appalachian State, UAB, Iowa, Oregon, Troy

Josh’s Top 25:

  1. Alabama
  2. UCF – Tell me why I am wrong?  Exactly.  There is no argument that makes sense other than the perception of the AAC.
  3. Clemson
  4. Notre Dame
  5. Oklahoma
  6. Ohio State
  7. Georgia – If Kirby, the president, and the SEC aren’t demanding an eight team playoffs then they are all morons.
  8. Washington
  9. Texas
  10. Michigan
  11. Washington State
  12. Penn State
  13. Florida
  14. LSU
  15. Utah
  16. Army – The thing I like about my poll is if a team keeps winning, I’m not going to have them get jumped.  Sure West Virginia would probably beat Army but based on how they looked on the field, I can’t come up with a reason for why Army wouldn’t hang with West Virginia or upset them.  This is a quality ball club with a nasty option attack.
  17. West Virginia
  18. Syracuse
  19. Kentucky
  20. Iowa State
  21. Missouri
  22. Mississippi State
  23. Texas A&M
  24. -25. See Below – Final Verdict

See Below, What the Hell is That?

This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot(s) all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try to state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (bad games could be narrow wins over bad opponents, a blowout loss, or a stunning upset). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.

American Athletic Conference

Same two teams as last week: Temple and Cincinnati.  The Bearcats have the quantity of wins (10 vs 8) but Temple has the head-to-head.  With the rest of the resumes very similar (i.e. UC 7 bowl teams/won 5, TU 6 bowl teams/won 3, UC 1 power-five foe, TU 2 power-five foes) I will go with that direct match-up.

AAC Nominee: Temple

Mountain West Conference

I had Boise State 20th last week but they lost their title game at home to Fresno State who has been sniffing around my poll ever since I took them out a few weeks ago when they lost to Boise State.  With their 1-1 head-to-head record and each having strong seasons, I’ll advance both.

MTW Nominee: Boise State and Fresno State

Elimination Time:

The above three teams join Appalachian State, NC State, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Stanford, and UAB to form a master list of nine teams trying to get into the best poll the internet has. The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.

FCS Much?…NC State hammered ECU to get to nine wins but they played a FCS team so let’s adjust to 8-3.  Their other eight wins include five wins over sub .500 teams.  The ACC was bad this year and NC State could only knock off Virginia and Boston College early in the season.  That won’t cut it.

Bad Game(s)…Northern Illinois won the MAC title game and finished 8-5 but it was a journey to get there.  They lost the final two games of the year and started with an ugly loss to Iowa as part of a 1-3 opening month.  NIU is a power in the MAC but this is not a strong enough Husky team to get ranked before any bowl shenanigans.  Speaking of shenanigans, Stanford’s win over rival Cal got them to eight wins but just their fourth against a team that will be bowl bound.  Toss in a FCS win and you have to give the tree the boot.

Final Six

For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.

  • Appalachian State
    • BW: Troy
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: at Penn State (by 7 in OT)
    • WL: at Georgia Southern (by 20)
  • Boise State
    • BW: Fresno State or Utah State
    • WW: Connecticut
    • BL: Fresno State (by 3)
    • WL: at Oklahoma State (by 23)
  • Fresno State
    • BW: Boise State
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: at Boise State (by 7)
    • WL: at Minnesota (by 7)
  • Northwestern
    • BW: Iowa or Wisconsin
    • WW: Rutgers
    • BL: Michigan (by 3)
    • WL: Akron (by 5)
  • Temple
    • BW: Cincinnati
    • WW: Connecticut
    • BL: at UCF (by 12)
    • WL: Villanova (by 2)
  • UAB
    • BW: North Texas or Middle Tennessee
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: N/A
    • WL: at Coastal Carolina (by 23)

The first thing that jumps out is how UAB lost all three of their games by 20+.  I understand they were taking it easy against Middle Tennessee with their division already clinched but they also struggled with Texas A&M and had the terrible game with Coastal Carolina.  The Blazers are one of the greatest stories this year in college football by winning their league just a few years removed from the program being shut down and that story is amazing with or without getting ranked in my poll.

In a similar line of thinking as UAB, Appalachian State will also get eliminated.  Their near win at Penn State was awesome but since that game they have faced no other power-five teams, no ranked team, a FCS team, and their Sun Belt slate.  The Fun Belt was its usual fun self but no one really emerged to give Appalachian State that quality win like in past years where there would be several 9, 10, or 11 win seasons.  Yes Troy and Georgia Southern got to nine wins each but Southern had an easy schedule and Troy missed an upset opportunity against Boise State that could have helped the prestige of the 2018 Sun Belt.

The next to go will be Temple.  Their turn around from a 2-3 start was pretty special but based on body of work they lost to a FCS team, failed to win their division, and just don’t have the resume that Northwestern or those Mountain West teams have.  Speaking of the total picture, let’s look at another point of data…opponent winning percentage.  I’ll look at the overall record as well as the record of the teams the candidates actually beat (minus any FCS opponents).

  • Boise State:
    • Overall: 85-73 (.538)
    • Wins only: 61-60 (.504)
  • Fresno State:
    • Overall: 72-75 (.490)
    • Wins only: 56-66 (.459)
  • Northwestern:
    • Overall: 88-69 (.561)
    • Wins only: 43-53 (.448)

So Northwestern fans will be quick to point out that they played a much, much tougher schedule and ended up with eight wins, just two behind Boise State and three behind Fresno State.  Northwestern also beat Minnesota, one of Fresno State’s two losses so some transformative property claim could be made.  I’m not buying it though.  Northwestern took advantage of a really lousy division, I mean just look at their opponent’s W-L in the wins only!  NU took down two four win teams and a single win Rutgers team.  Ugly.

Bowl teams are another metric I could use.  NU faced nine with five wins.  Not bad but not running away from the Mountain West foes.  Boise took on eight such opponents with Fresno State twice for a grand total of nine.  The Broncos knocked off six of them.  Fresno squared off with seven teams and Boise twice for a total of eight.  The Bulldogs knocked off six of them.  If NC State and Stanford were punished for down years in the ACC and Pac 12, then Northwestern will also be hurt by just how crappy the Big Ten West was this year.

Final Verdict:

24. Fresno State
25. Boise State

League Breakdown

8 – SEC
4 – Big 12
3 – Big Ten, Pac 12
2 – ACC, Independent, Mountain West
1 – American

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