Not the Big Ten title game Wisconsin, Iowa, or Michigan fans were expecting. Iowa and Wisconsin surveyed the west last summer and thought…yup, one of us will win. They did not. In fact, neither could crack the code that is Northwestern’s defense. Michigan was enjoying their redemption / revenge tour and in prime shape to make the “playoffs” until, whelp, 62 points allowed in a laugher for Ohio State. So now the title game features a potential “playoff” team in Ohio State facing a squad full of house money and nothing but each other and pride to play for.
How did Ohio State get here?
They beat Michigan. Okay, yes, more went into it than that. Ohio State got a huge win at Penn State, 27-26, to keep their hopes alive early. They dominated usually frisky Michigan State and then avoided very real upset bids by Nebraska and Maryland to set up the winner-take-all game with Michigan. It should be noted that the Maryland game was a 52-51 overtime epic that could win game of the year in the Big Ten this season. So while OSU had things come so easily against Michigan, in reality not much came easily until that game.
Two moments highlight why this season was a struggle. The first was on the football field at Purdue. The Bucks were dominated by the Boilers. Huge flaws in the running game and defense were exploited over and over by Purdue. Without that loss and a chance to fix these glaring issues, I’m not sure Ohio State gets here. In many ways, those struggles in West Lafayette actually made Ohio State a better team.
The other struggle was off the field. It is of course the struggle of doing the right thing. Unlike figuring things out and improving as a team, Ohio State failed this test. There is no reason Urban Meyer, who lied to his bosses and the media regarding Zach Smith’s history of domestic violence, should have a job right now. His suspension, a mild slap on the wrist, was a joke this summer and is a joke now. If you think Urban Meyer got a raw deal and should not have been suspended, first of all: how does the sand taste as you bury your head in it? Second, go to work next week, lie your head off to your bosses and see if you have a job much longer. At best Urban Meyer is a habitual liar who selfishly wanted to cover his own ass and at worst he knowingly employed a man who is a violent piece of filth because coach Meyer doesn’t care about women. Both are fire-able offenses and yet, here Meyer gets to be.
How did Northwestern get here?
Own the Big Ten West. Northwestern went 7-0 against the West this year, building off a 6-1 run against the West last year. In fact, NU’s last loss to a division foe was September 30th last year in Madison. Since that loss to Wisconsin, NU has gone 16-5overall and 13-1 against Western teams. It has been nothing short of complete domination for the Cats.
This dominance comes from a defense that can flat-out play. This isn’t too surprising based on Pat Fitzgerald’s pedigree as one of the best linebacker’s in league history but thanks to an uptick in recruiting and some fantastic player development, Fitz’s strong scheme is now being played by better athletes. The results has been impressive as NU boasts a top-50 total defense and 29th in scoring. That data points to a team that bends but does not break and will not give up big chunk plays. In fact, it feels like every scoring drive NU has allowed has been a 15 play, 75 yard grinder. As a result the drive is kind of a Pyrrhic victory. Sure you scored, but you also ran the clock a ton: something NU likes.
Why does Northwestern like the clock running? Well it means the game is shorter and there is less time for you to score a ton because Northwestern can’t win shootouts. Their offense isn’t equipped for it. Due to a major knee injury in the bowl game, Clayton Thorson has played this season far from 100%. NU’s starting running back retired due to injury and only as of late has Isaiah Bowser come on to help the ground attack. The receivers are quality possession guys but no one scares you over the top. Lastly the OL has struggled to keep Thorson clean as he has been sacked 28 times. Only Maryland did a worse job of keeping their quarterback upright. So Northwestern used a solid defense to keep the game in reach, some timely takeaways, and just enough out of a patchwork offense to tip the scales in their favor. However, make no mistake, if this game gets even into the mid 20s, NU could be in a real pickle.
Who will win…and why?
Northwestern’s defense can make this game sloppy but Ohio State should still be able to find pay dirt at least once a quarter. Assuming OSU gets to around 28 points, I don’t see the Wildcats scratching out enough points to win. Ohio State should win comfortably but I don’t see it being a cakewalk like a few years ago in that 59-0 title game versus Wisconsin.
The reason Ohio State will be able to score more than Northwestern is used to giving up this year is NU hasn’t faced an offense as good as this. The west has some real clunkers. Iowa struggles to run, Wisconsin can’t pass, Nebraska is turnover happy, Purdue runs hot and cold, Minnesota is woefully young, and Illinois is inept.
Unlike those outfits, Ohio State has it all. Haskins is an extremely accurate quarterback. He gets to throw to dynamic receivers that can stretch the field vertically or run clean, quick routes to find the open space. A guy like Paris Campbell is so blazingly fast that all OSU has to do is see the cushion, call a hot route, dump out a quick screen and watch him rip off 25 yards. Schematically Northwestern won’t make the mistakes Michigan did but talent wise, I’m not sure the team speed is there yet for Northwestern and that will be the ultimate difference. Ohio State’s speed will produce those points that NU probably can’t match.
How to watch
- Date: Saturday, December 1st
- Time: 7 pm, central
- TV: Fox
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Gambling Guide
- OSU -14.5, Over / Under 61
Neither team is great Against The Spread with NU going 6-5-1 and OSU just 5-7 so that is a crap-shoot. As for the over, Northwestern had just two games go over 61 this season while Ohio State had seven games go over that number. Against their stiffest competition, the Wildcats found ways to keep games close against Michigan and Notre Dame. One was a 20-17 thriller and the other was a 31-21 game that featured a big comeback by NU. The theme in both is that they were well under the 61 point mark with 37 and 52 total points respectively. Because the ATS figures are so bad and NU had 10 of their 12 games under 61 and Ohio State had 5 of their 12 games under 61, I’m going to take the under.
Lightning Round for Non-Readers:
Northwestern/Ohio State – Under
Random Musing:
Indianapolis is a great town for this game. Going a few years ago to watch Iowa was an amazing experience. Lucas Oil has good facilities and sight lines and everything is well situated with the downtown hotels, restaurants, and bars. The best thing though…Hinkle Fieldhouse. We went to a game before the football and what a delight. The gym is a crown jewel of basketball for a reason. If you are ever in Indianapolis, take a trip to a hoops mecca. You can thank me later.
Big Ten and Counting 