Just when I was feeling good about my poll Buffalo had to go and lose a game. At least my Army pick is going strong and is finally ranked in the real AP. How many weeks have I had Army in? Three? Four? Feels like a lot.
Real AP Poll:
- Alabama (61) – Admit it, when it was 10-10 at half against the Citadel you were doing whatever silly superstitious stuff you do. I know I did. That would have been the upset of the century. I don’t even care that it is 2018 and allows for 88 more years of upsets. It would have been the upset of the century.
- Clemson
- Notre Dame – Just a struggling (and soon to be looking for a coach) USC squad left before the college football “playoffs” goes nuclear and the power five changes stuff.
- Michigan
- Georgia
- Oklahoma – Defensive update…40 points given up to Kansas.
- Washington State
- UCF
LSU - Oregon State – Kidding. There is a tie at #8
- Ohio State
- Texas
- West Virginia – Why is it that Oklahoma State either has their hearts broken late in the year or they are playing spoiler? OSU never seems to go 9-3 with their losses the top teams in the league. They either go 11-1 and lose to Rice or they go 4-8 and beat Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, and the 85 Bears. Zero in between.
- Florida
- Utah State
- Penn State
- Washington
- Kentucky
- Utah
- Syracuse – What a shame to lose your starting quarterback as you try and pull off a massive upset. Only Boston College knows that feeling and hey look, they face each other next. That is kismet.
- Northwestern
- Boise State
- Mississippi State – Huh? They are 3-4 in the SEC! Let’s go ahead and rank Missouri, they are 3-4. What about South Carolina? They are 4-4, that is a better record! So there you go, 6-4 South Carolina is a team we should rank.
- Army – Duh!
- Pittsburgh
- Iowa State
Dropped: Cincinnati (19), Boston College (22)
Receiving Votes: Fresno State, NC State, Cincinnati, Missouri, Texas A&M, Auburn, Stanford, Iowa, UAB, Houston, Wisconsin, Troy, Buffalo
Josh’s Top 25:
- Alabama
- UCF
- Clemson
- Notre Dame
- Oklahoma
- Michigan
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Washington State
- LSU – Isn’t it really nice when none of your top 10 teams lose? Makes filling out the ballot very simple.
- Texas
- West Virginia
- Washington
- Penn State
- Utah
- Army
- Florida
- Utah State
- Syracuse
- Kentucky
- Boise State
- -25. See Below – Final Verdict
See Below, What the Hell is That?
This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot(s) all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try to state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (bad games could be narrow wins over bad opponents, a blowout loss, or a stunning upset). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.
American Athletic Conference
An intriguing mix as Cincy has the best overall record at 9-2 but just looked outclassed at UCF, Houston is 8-3 but is 1-2 in their last three and just lost their starting quarterback (D’Eriq King) for the year, and Temple is just 7-4 but 5-1 in their last six and beat Cincy, Houston, USF, and Maryland this season. I think the Owls are playing the best and have the most impressive body of work even without the most wins. I’m leaning their way.
AAC Nominee: Temple
Atlantic Coast Conference
God this league is a mess. NC State blew out Louisville to improve to 7-3. BC lost a heart-breaker to Florida State to fall to 7-4. Pitt is atop their division and 6-1 in the league but just 7-4 overall. Georgia Tech is 6-1 in their last seven to get to 7-4 but their one loss was to Duke, yet another 7-4 team. Oh, Virginia is also 7-4 but they are 1-2 in their last three with losses to Tech and Pitt so they’re out. Next out is NC State. They are 2-3 in their last five and one of those wins is Louisville. That isn’t enough to atone for the Wake loss. BC is also sadly out. Good team but this is a bad season to lose to Florida State. Finally, red hot Georgia Tech is given the boot. They are on fire but their best win over this run is…Virginia. That leaves division leader Pitt and Duke. Now I know Duke just lost to Clemson and face insane odds to get ranked BUT, I just want to remind folks of their resume so will be keeping them around longer than normal.
ACC Nominees: Duke and Pittsburgh
Big Ten Conference
Northwestern, Iowa, and Wisconsin all moved to 7-4 on the season but only one team won the division and beat the other two.
Big Ten Nominee: Northwestern
Conference USA
Sadly UAB’s dream season took a minor step back as they couldn’t stun Texas A&M. Still they are division champions and they are still on my radar so win your finale, win the title game, and win the bowl game and I am positive you are getting in the final poll…if not earlier.
C-USA Nominee: No One
Mid-American Conference
A narrow loss and I could probably spin Buffalo but a 52-17 stinker? Nope, can’t work with that. Buffalo will be out of my poll. The next best team in the conference is Northern Illinois. They are 6-1 in the league and 7-4 overall. They scheduled tough and paid the price as they couldn’t pull any of those upsets. NIU is a good team, just not top 25 good yet.
MAC Nominee: No One
Southeastern Conference
7-4 teams galore!!! Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri, and Texas A&M are all at that magical mark. TAMU is out first because they lost to both Mississippi State and Auburn. AU is out next because they lost to Mississippi State pretty definitively and are 3-4 in the league. The other two show promise so despite teasing Mississippi State the last few weeks, I’ll at least let them compare their resume to the nation.
SEC Nominees: Mississippi State and Missouri
Elimination Time:
The above five teams join Fresno State, Iowa State, and Troy to form a master list of eight teams trying to get into the best poll the internet has. The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.
FCS Much?…This category doesn’t do any favors to Fresno State. Their 9-2 mark features zero ranked teams at the time of the game and just one team that has since gotten into the polls and it was Boise State, one of Fresno’s two losses. As a result their 9-2 mark has been built on a few bowl teams but a lot of bad teams. Taking away the FCS game makes them just 8-2 with a lot of soft opponents along the way. Troy is in a nearly identical boat. Their 9-2 record gets adjusted to 8-2 with a ton of Sun Belt teams. Love the Trojans but can’t rank ’em this week.
Bad Game(s)…Temple is one of the hottest teams in the nation but they lost to FCS Villanova (a very bad game), lost to Buffalo at home (a not good game), lost at BC by giving up 45 points (a not good game), and were swiftly dispatched by UCF. Outside of Cincy, Temple hasn’t done well against top-25ish teams (BC/Buffalo), ranked teams (UCF), and lost to a FCS club. That adds up to multiple bad outings.
Final Seven
For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.
- Duke
- BW: Army or at Northwestern
- WW: FCS
- BL: at Pitt (by 9)
- WL: Virginia Tech (by 17)
- Iowa State
- BW: West Virginia
- WW: Akron or Kansas
- BL: Oklahoma (by 10)
- WL: at Texas (by 14)
- Mississippi State
- BW: Auburn or Texas A&M
- WW: FCS
- BL: at Alabama (by 24)
- WL: at Kentucky (by 21)
- Missouri
- BW: at Florida
- WW: FCS
- BL: Kentucky (by 1)
- WL: at Alabama (by 29)
- Northwestern
- BW: at Iowa, Wisconsin, or at Michigan State
- WW: at Rutgers
- BL: Michigan (by 3)
- WL: Akron (by 5)
- Pittsburgh
- BW: Syracuse
- WW: FCS
- BL: at Notre Dame (by 5)
- WL: Penn State (by 45)
So the first thing that catches my eye is the massive difference between Missouri and Mississippi State. When the Bulldogs are off, they are WAY off. Missouri was in every game but the Georgia and Alabama games so the Tigers are the more consistent team. Then there are the victories. Yeah MSU beat two teams but neither are ranked anymore while Mizzou’s best win was on the road and Florida is still securely ranked. Maybe they both get ranked but for any deliberation, Mizzou has to be placed ahead of the Bulldogs.
The next thing that stood out to me is Northwestern’s three solid wins. I know none of those teams are ranked anymore but two were on the road and all three are going bowling. Wildcats might not have a quality win that grabs your attention but their quantity of wins combined with no FCS match-up is compelling. Wildcats will be ranked.
With NU in we are now looking for three more teams from a pool of six. Duke beat Army and Northwestern which is a strong statement but they are under .500 in league and just got hammered by Clemson. I kept them in as a reminder of just how good some of their wins are, but you can’t get ranked coming off a week off a four touchdown blowout.
So that leaves three spots for five teams and you may notice Iowa State has the most impressive win of the group. Now I know they have a 6-4 mark but everyone else that made it this far outside Northwestern has a FCS win. That means MSU, Missouri, and Pitt are all essentially 6-4 without a win as impressive as State. They’re staying in despite the Texas game.
Three teams, two spots and I just can’t shake Mississippi State. Pitt has gotten better throughout the season and is now riding a four game win streak. Mizzou has gotten better and is riding a three game streak. State hasn’t won back-to-back SEC games. State is a nicely symmetrical 4-4 since their opening season three wins (FCS, at Kansas State, ULL). They are a nice team but unspectacular. Give me the division champ and the team that embarrassed the Gators in the Swamp.
Final Verdict:
22. Northwestern
23. Iowa State
24. Missouri
25. Pittsburgh
League Breakdown:
6 – SEC
4 – Big 12, Big Ten
3 – ACC, Pac 12
2 – Independent, Mountain West
1 – American
Big Ten and Counting 