2018 Week 10 Poll

With eight teams losing my poll will be a little different.  On the plus side I did not have Appalachian State ranked so there is that, I suppose.

Real AP Poll:

1. Alabama (60)
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. LSU – Did you see them enter as two touchdown underdogs at home to Alabama?  If that doesn’t light a fire under them…
5. Michigan
6. Georgia
7. Oklahoma
8. Ohio State
9. UCF
10. Washington State – I’ve had Stanford ranked all year so you know I was damn impressed by that victory on the Farm Saturday night.
11. Kentucky
12. West Virginia
13. Florida
14. Penn State
15. Texas
16. Utah – Is there a hotter team in America right now?  Wazzu and Michigan might match the Utes but this is one fun club to watch.
17. Houston
18. Utah State
19. Iowa
20. Fresno State
21. Mississippi State – Again with these guys?
22. Syracuse
23. Virginia
24. Boston College – The trio of ACC teams that are having breakthrough seasons all got ranked the exact same week.  Awesome stuff.
25. Texas A&M

Dropped: Washington (15), Oregon (19), Wisconsin (20), South Florida (21), NC State (22), Stanford (24), Appalachian State (25)

Receiving Votes: Washington, Northwestern, Georgia Southern, Michigan State, Cincinnati, Iowa State, South Florida, Stanford, Oklahoma State, UAB, Oregon, Wisconsin, Auburn, San Diego State, Army, NC State, Cal, Buffalo

Josh’s Top 25:

1. Alabama
2. UCF
3. Clemson
4. Notre Dame – An undefeated Irish team would be a lock for the “playoffs” but it might be hard for them to climb too much without the teams ahead of them losing as their strength of schedule has taken a bit of a hit with USC, FSU, and Stanford having down seasons.  At least Syracuse and Michigan are keeping it propped up!
5. Oklahoma
6. LSU
7. Michigan – They are sitting pretty as the SEC title game and LSU-Alabama will probably bump somebody, Oklahoma could stumble in the Big 12 title game (if they get there), and UM still has games against Ohio State and Penn State to pad the resume.
8. Georgia
9. Ohio State
10. Penn State
11. Washington State – Basically ditto everything I said about Michigan.  They still have a great chance at making the “playoffs.”
12. Kentucky
13. West Virginia
14. Texas
15. Utah
16. Florida
17. -25. See Below – Final Verdict

See Below, What the Hell is That?

This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot(s) all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try to state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (bad games could be narrow wins over bad opponents, a blowout loss, or a stunning upset). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.

American Athletic Conference

I haven’t had USF or Cincy ranked all year so of course I’m not going to jump on the Bulls after their first loss or the Bearcats after needing overtime to beat SMU.  That leaves Houston and Temple.  Temple couldn’t quite get ranked a week ago after knocking of UC and then was off preparing for UCF.  That leaves those red hot Cougars.

AAC Nominee: Houston

Atlantic Coast Conference

I nearly ranked Virginia a week ago and they won again.  BC beat up Miami, a team I’ve had ranked all year, and Syracuse dropped half a hundred on NC State.  As for those Caines.  I can’t rank them again.  They are 0-2 the last two weeks have have scored a grand total of 27 points in those losses.  As a result, that fun trio of teams will keep going into the next round.

ACC Nominees: Boston College, Syracuse, Virginia

Big 12 Conference

So this is a mess.  I ranked Texas Tech last week knowing full well they had a tough trip to Iowa State.  Spoiler alert, the Red Raiders lost.  Oklahoma State re-enters the picture as they knocked off Texas.  But Texas Tech beat the Cowboys.  On top of that Iowa State beat both Okie State and Texas Tech yet they have the worst overall record.  With resumes like this, I’m just going to look at who has been the hottest team:

• Team A: 2-1
• Team B: 1-2
• Team C: 3-0

Team C is the hottest right?  Now I know someone is going to say, “strength of schedule!!!”  You’re right.  Team C is not only the hottest but their wins have been Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and Texas Tech.

Big 12 Nominee: Iowa State

Big Ten Conference

Hey look, another league with a ton of teams worth looking at.  I had Iowa and Wisconsin ranked a week ago so they got looks.  Maryland won to get 5-3 and does have the Texas win.  Michigan State won to get to 5-3 and does have the Penn State win.  Northwestern won to get to 5-3 and does have the Wisconsin win as well as the most impressive mark in league play at 4-1.

So who to take?  I’m going to go with three teams.  First is Iowa because despite losing at Penn State, it was a road game at a good team.  Iowa also has head-to-head wins against other fringe ranked teams, Maryland and Iowa State, as well as a hot streak where they put up 90 points in two games.  The other is controversial but will be Wisconsin.  They might have the highest ceiling of these teams but between injuries and sloppy play, they may also have the lowest floor.  Additionally, their third loss was without their starting qb.  With Hornibrook back, they are a much better team.  The last one is Northwestern as they boast a very well rounded resume.  The two that got knocked are MSU because they couldn’t even get 100 yards last week and Maryland was shutout at Iowa.

Big 10 Nominees: Iowa, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Conference USA

Another week, another win for both FIU and UAB.  Just like I said last week: “FIU has a had a bit tougher schedule but UAB has the better record. Unfortunately for Butch Davis’ panther squad, I’m going with the Blazers due to the record and beating both Louisiana Tech and North Texas.”

C-USA Nominee: UAB

FBS Independents

I ranked Army a week ago.  They won.  They will be ranked, I just don’t know 100% where yet.

Mid-American Conference

Buffalo and Northern Illinois are clean through four league games and control their own destinies.  Other than the 4-0 record in the MAC, these are very different teams.  Buffalo scheduled just one power-five team (Rutgers) and an American member (Temple).  Their Army game was at home and probably figured to be an easier date.  Northern scheduled three power-five teams and a trip to BYU.  As a result UB sits at 7-1 and NIU at 5-3.  UB loves offense, NIU loves defense.  As much as I respect the Huskies for scheduling tough, they couldn’t win any of those power-five games.  What’s worse is they didn’t look very good in them.  Buffalo beat Temple, a solid American team.  As a result, the UB Bulls are the way to go.

MAC Nominee: Buffalo

Mountain West Conference

Broken record alert, yet another league with a ton of teams to consider.  Boise State has won three straight but only one of those wins came against a team above .500 (Nevada).  Fresno State has ripped off six in a row and are one of the most efficient teams in the nation.  Their UCLA win even looks better now that the Bruins are marginally improved.  Utah State has seven wins in a row and have one of the most electrifying offenses in the nation but their strength of schedule leaves a lot to be desired.  SDSU has the strength of schedule but dropped two, including last time out to…Nevada.  We went full circle.  I don’t think Boise or the Aztecs have done enough just yet but those other two, those other two are looking damn good through eight games.

MTW Nominees: Fresno State, Utah State

Pac-12 Conference

Oh boy, is this league really good and feasting on each other or massively overrated?  Four teams up north have all had flashes: Cal, Oregon, Stanford, and Washington.  Theoretically the Ducks have a good offense but with just 35 combined points in back-to-back losses they aren’t really showing that.  Note, they are also now under .500 in the league.  Cal has won twice, including upset Washington, to get back on the radar but they are also under .500 in Pac 12 play.  That just will not do, both UO and Cal are out.  Stanford is now 1-3 in their last four and their best wins, Oregon and USC, are losing a lot of their luster.  U-Dub is 1-2 in their last three but their best win, Utah, is gaining in reputation.

Pac 12 Nominee: Washington

Southeastern Conference

I had Texas A&M ranked a week ago and then they lost at Mississippi State.  The real poll put the Bulldogs right back into the poll and kept the Aggies in.  A&M is 3-2 in their last five while MSU is 2-3.  A&M has scored at least 13 points in all three of their losses.  MSU has scored 7 or less in their losses.  Outside the head-to-head, A&M is clearly the better team but it seems like they both need to be held up to a national test.

SEC Nominees: Mississippi State and Texas A&M

Sun Belt Conference

Troy may prove to be the best team but with that Liberty loss still to atone for, they can’t get into the polls just yet.  That means those pesky Eagles who just took down Appy State get the nod.

Sun Belt Nominee: Georgia Southern

Elimination Time (Army is a lock)

The above 15 teams join Army to form a master list of 16 teams trying to get into the best poll the internet has.  The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.

FCS Much?…Lots of FCS scheduling from this group but believe it or not, those two SEC teams take the most damage.  Both A&M and Miss State are 5-3 but take out that FCS game it is a much less impressive 4-3.  Sure that is the same record as Iowa State, but the wins on the Cyclone slate are much more impressive since they have racked up multiple big wins.  State just has A&M and those Aggies just have Kentucky.

Bad Game(s)…Sadly, this is where Northwestern will bow out.  Their Nebraska and Rutgers wins inspire very little confidence, losing to Akron isn’t good, and their sloppy seven point day against Duke also hurts.  Knock off Notre Dame though and you won’t be snubbed again.  Two other teams I really like also end their run with this criteria.  UAB is an awesome story but they haven’t really beaten anyone super sexy to make up for the 23 point loss to Coastal Carolina.  Knocking off La Tech and North Texas are solid victories, but they only go so far when you have a FCS team and zero major conference teams on your slate yet.  The other club is Georgia Southern who lost by 31 to Clemson.  No shame in that, but they haven’t really played anyone to make up for it yet other than a very banged up App State squad.

Final Twelve (Army is a lock)

For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.

• Boston College
  • BW: Miami (FL) or Temple
  • WW: FCS
  • BL: at NC State (by 5)
  • WL: at Purdue (by 17)
• Buffalo
  • BW: at Temple
  • WW: FCS
  • BL: N/A
  • WL: Army (by 29)
• Fresno State
  • BW: Hawai’i(?)
  • WW: FCS
  • BL: at Minnesota (by 7)
  • WL: N/A
• Houston
  • BW: USF or Arizona
  • WW: FCS
  • BL: at Texas Tech (by 14)
  • WL: N/A
• Iowa
  • BW: Maryland or Iowa State
  • WW: FCS
  • BL: at Penn State (by 6)
  • WL: Wisconsin (by 11)
• Iowa State
  • BW: West Virginia
  • WW: Akron
  • BL: Oklahoma (by 10)
  • WL: at TCU (by 3)
• Syracuse
  • BW: NC State
  • WW: FCS
  • BL: at Clemson (by 4)
  • WL: at Pitt (by 7)
• Utah State
  • BW: at BYU
  • WW: FCS
  • BL: at Michigan State (by 7)
  • WL: N/A
• Virginia
  • BW: Miami or at Duke
  • WW: FCS
  • BL: at NC State (by 14)
  • WL: at Indiana (by 4)
• Washington
  • BW: at Utah
  • WW: FCS
  • BL: at Oregon (by 3)
  • WL: at Cal (by 2)
• Wisconsin
  • BW: at Iowa
  • WW: Western Kentucky
  • BL: N/A
  • WL: BYU (by 3)

The first thing that jumps out to me is Fresno’s lack of, um, facing people.  I love what this team has done and I think they have a great shot at winning out, going 12-1 after the Mountain West title game and playing in a major bowl.  The problem is their schedule is back loaded.  Until they face Boise State on 11/9 and SDSU on 11/17 they really haven’t faced much stiff opposition and their Minnesota loss was a big missed opportunity.

The next thing that caught my eye were the ORs.  Boston College, Houston, Iowa, and Virginia all have multiple wins that are strong ones.  Each of them will be ranked.

Speaking of ORs…Iowa State didn’t get to have an OR up there because the West Virginia win shines so brightly but they could have had two ORs.  One for Oklahoma State and one for Texas Tech.  Cyclones will join the Hawks in the polls.

That leaves five teams for just three spots.  I’m going to bring in some more data for this. I will look at two things. The first is what are their FBS opponents’ W-L overall. The other thing will be to pull out any FBS wins and look at those teams W-L. This will show how tough a team’s schedule is overall and how tough their wins have actually been.

• Buffalo
  • Overall: 25-32 (.439)
  • Wins only: 19-30 (.388)
• Syracuse
  • Overall: 29-26 (.527)
  • Wins only: 17-22 (.586)
• Utah State
  • Overall: 22-34 (.393)
  • Wins only: 17-31 (.354)
• Washington
  • Overall: 36-32 (.529)
  • Wins only: 21-23 (.477)
• Wisconsin
  • Overall: 31-33 (.484)
  • Wins only: 15-25 (.375)

So this data does no favors to Utah State or Buffalo.  Much like Fresno State, the Aggies just haven’t played their biggest games yet.  No Boise State yet, not even Hawai’i yet.  Love to watch them but USU is still on hold.  Buffalo hasn’t had as easy a time as Utah State but they haven’t been helped by their fellow MAC squads.  Neither Toledo nor Akron have been as good as last year so those wins aren’t as impressive as they could be.  At least that Temple victory is keeping the Bulls in this thing.

So we have our eight teams: Army, Boston College, Houston, Iowa, Iowa State, Syracuse, Virginia, and Washington.  Iowa was ahead of Army last week and after their narrow loss, I see no reason to change that.  Iowa also has the head-to-head over their in-state rivals so they will be ahead of the Cyclones.

In terms of the ACC members, Boston College was better early in the year with a healthy A.J. Dillon and now that he’s close to being 100% again, they took it to Miami and look to be the best again.  They nearly knocked off NC State with him not fully back.  BC will be the highest of those teams.  Syracuse gave Clemson fits and beat NC State.  Virginia hasn’t faced Clemson and struggled with the Wolfpack so that sorts that out.

Houston has the best offense of any team left but even with Ed Oliver their defense hasn’t been all that hot so you can make the argument of dropping them but the eye-test favors the Cougars.  They dropped 45 on Arizona.  Do you see anyone else dropping 45 on ’em?  Houston will be 17th.

Washington’s defense is the best of this group but their offense is in fits right now…or so we think.  The Cal game was ugly, but the Bears are a really good defensive team.  The two games before that Washington put up 27 points on Oregon and Colorado.  That’s each game, not combined.  Although the way we think of Washington, I should make that clear.

Finally, healthy vs healthy, Wisconsin has a head-to-head over Iowa.  If Wisconsin looks as bad as they did against Northwestern with Hornibrook, then I’ll start dropping the Badgers in a hurry, but not quite yet.

Final Verdict:

17. Houston
18. Washington
19. Boston College
20. Syracuse
21. Virginia
22. Wisconsin – Fully acknowledge the controversial nature of this.  If they blowout Rutgers and upset Penn State then my pick will pay off but I see what the critics are saying about this team and do agree with some of their arguments.
23. Iowa
24. Army
25. Iowa State

League Breakdown:

5 – Big 10, SEC
4 – ACC, Big 12
3 – Pac 12
2 – AAC, Independent