Woah boy, last week seemed to have a number of upsets impact the lower part of the poll, this week saw several top 15-ish clubs stumble. At least I didn’t have Colorado ranked like the “real” poll because, let’s be honest, their schedule stinks. Anyway, let’s see how it all shakes out.
Real AP Poll:
- Alabama (60)
- Ohio State (1)
- Clemson
- Notre Dame
- LSU – These guys have a killer resume so far. If they find a way to knock off Alabama, they should be in the “playoffs” regardless of what they do in the SEC title game. Oh god, that might mean the SEC gets two teams in again. I’m going to be sick.
- Michigan
- Texas
- Georgia
- Oklahoma
- UCF
- Florida – Why does this somehow simultaneously feel too high and too low? Guess that’s what happens when you are using a lot of smoke and mirrors on offense to survive and advance.
- Oregon
- West Virginia
- Kentucky
- Washington
- NC State
- Texas A&M
- Penn State
- Iowa
- Cincinnati
- South Florida
- Mississippi State – They’re back? Who did they beat? Oh, they had a bye week. And next up is at LSU? Okay, this feels like a short week of being ranked.
- Wisconsin
- Michigan State
- Washington State
Drop: Miami (FL) (16), Colorado (19), Auburn (21)
Receiving Votes: Stanford, USC, San Diego State, Appalachian State, Colorado, Miami (FL), Utah State, Utah, Duke, Texas Tech, Fresno State, Houston, Virginia, Maryland
Josh’s Top 25:
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- UCF – It is impossible to play 12-15 perfect games in row. Good teams find ways to win some games when they’re off. Great teams find ways to win when they’re way off and elite teams find ways to win when everything is going wrong AND they aren’t playing well. UCF did that at Memphis. The weather was awful, Memphis had an amazing game plan, and UCF looked wretched. Yet, UCF pitched a shut-out in the second half, squeezed just enough out of their offense, and found a way to win. Very impressive.
- Clemson
- Notre Dame
- Oklahoma
- LSU
- Michigan
- Georgia
- Oregon
- Texas – Okay, okay Texas fans. I put them up five spots! Plenty of damage can happen in front of them PLUS if they keep going, they will get a second crack at Oklahoma. Sweep the Sooners and watch UT fly up the standings.
- Penn State
- Kentucky
- Florida – Just a reminder, I try to include head-to-head victories, where I can.
- Stanford – Hey, you said head-to-head mattered. “We beat Oregon!” Shut up, Stanford. I’m one of the few still hyping you up and keeping you ranked.
- Washington
- West Virginia
- Miami (FL) – This might be a really unpopular opinion but a) I did drop Miami and b) Virginia has a good defense. Let’s see how Miami looks in two weeks against a dangerous Boston College team. Miami is just way too athletic and talented to abandon ship a week after an emotionally charged comeback against their bitter rival.
- Duke
- Washington State
- Texas A&M
- NC State
- Wisconsin
- Iowa
- See Below – Final Verdict
See Below, What the Hell is That?
This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot(s) all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try to state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (bad games could be narrow wins over bad opponents, a blowout loss, or a stunning upset). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.
American Athletic Conference
Another week and another win for Cincinnati, South Florida, and Houston. The Cougars blasted East Carolina to get to 5-1 and have won three straight since losing to Texas Tech. The problem for Houston is none of their wins are very good. As a result the two undefeated clubs will move on…again.
AAC Nominees: Cincinnati, USF
Atlantic Coast Conference
Four teams with two losses were considered: Boston College, Syracuse, Virginia, and Virginia Tech. The Orange have that nice 4-0 start and pounded Florida State but they have lost their last two. Can’t go with a team trending like that. The Hookies fail the eye test with one horrid loss (Old Dominion) and one blowout (Notre Dame). They also struggled with ACC bottom-feeder, North Carolina. Virginia has the best win between themselves and B.C. but the Eagles have more wins with a tougher schedule. I doubt they survive national scrutiny but for now, Boston College moves on.
ACC Nominee: Boston College
Big 12 Conference
Really just two viable options to look at this week: Texas Tech and Iowa State. Both beat Oklahoma State and then things are a little flipped:
- West Virginia: ISU beat them / TT lost to them
- TCU: ISU lost to them / TT beat them
- Marquee non-con games: ISU lost to Iowa / TT beat Houston and lost to Ole Miss
I think both have really high ceilings and both could see the polls before the end of this year but as of now, Tech sitting at 4-2 edges Iowa State’s 3-3 mark.
Big 12 Nominee: Texas Tech
Big Ten Conference
All due respect to Northwestern who has a head-to-head over Michigan State, being 3-3 overall and needing overtime to finish off Nebraska was not enough to have me really consider you. The teams with the best marks are Maryland and Michigan State, each at 4-2. Both have nice wins with UM’s victory over Texas looking better and better while MSU just took down Penn State. The problem is Maryland doesn’t really have a second win yet to back up the Texas game while MSU’s week one victory over Utah State has climbed in reputation.
Big 10 Nominee: Michigan State
Conference USA
UAB is one of the best kept stories in college football have they have pushed their mark to 5-1. Preseason favorite North Texas is living up to expectations at 6-1. The problem for the Blazers is zero wins over a power-five school and just one win over an AAC program. North Texas can match the AAC win but also knocked off SEC Arkansas.
C-USA Nominee: North Texas
Mountain West Conference
Oh boy, the MTW is at it again with a whole slew of good – but are they rank-able good? – teams to pick through. First to be tossed, Boise State. Their narrow win at Nevada did not do enough eye test work to make up for a home loss to SDSU or the blowout to Oklahoma State. Hawai’i also is shown the door since they just lost by 26 points to a scuffling BYU club. Utah State and the western tandem of SDSU and Fresno are the real trio of doom. USU’s dominance since a narrow loss to Michigan State is impressive and while the quality of the win has dipped some, they did take it to BYU. Fresno is consistently good but doesn’t have a win the quality of BYU yet. Finally old reliable SDSU continues to win but does it in such Tressle-ball manner that it is tough to say for sure that they are good, or just good in tight games. They do however have a power-five win to their name, Arizona State. Maybe I am getting suckered into the offense, but the eye-test so loudly screams for just one of these teams that I can’t ignore it.
MTW Nominee: Utah State
Pac 12 Conference
Seeing as I am the only one left standing who doesn’t want to touch Stanford with a ten foot pole and kept them ranked because once they get going, they are damn scary, I just have three teams to look at. First knocked out is Colorado. I did not have them ranked a week ago when the real AP did, lost. That leaves Utah and USC. The Trojans just knocked off previously unbeaten Colorado and also has a win over Washington State. Utah humiliated Stanford and then dropped 40 points again, this time on Arizona last Saturday. As hot as Utah has been, the fact they have the same record as USC while playing a FCS team makes this one pretty easy.
Pac 12 Nominee: Southern Cal
Southeastern Conference
Mississippi State is ranked in the real poll but they aren’t the only SEC team to get a glance as Ole Miss is a surprising 5-2. Bulldogs have the win over Auburn and it wasn’t enough to get them into the poll a week ago and then they were off. That doesn’t bode well. Ole Miss has a lot of wins but both losses have been very lopsided. The odds of them getting in are astronomically low but by not having as much failure in the losses as the Rebs, Mississippi State advances…barely.
SEC Nominee: Mississippi State
Sun Belt Conference
The closest team to getting ranked was Troy but they just lost to Liberty of all teams. This reshuffling makes Georgia Southern (5-1) and Appalachian State (4-1) the closest to getting ranked. Each team is 0-1 against a power-five team and each team has a FCS win boosting things. Southern has a really efficient option attack but Appy is top ten in both scoring per game and opponents’ points per game. Cannot ignore those numbers.
Sun Belt Nominee: Appalachian State
Elimination Time
The above ten teams join Army and Buffalo to form a master list of twelve teams trying to get into the best poll the internet has. The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.
FCS Much?…Only Army, Michigan State, and USC have avoided a FCS team this season but just because most teams dipped their toe, doesn’t mean they all avoid or get punished. App State is a team to get dinged. With a postponed game they are just 4-1 but that is readjusted to 3-1 with the win over Gardner-Webb taken out. That won’t cut it. Mississippi State runs into the same thing. Their 4-2 record is really 3-2. Also, that Auburn win looks like trash now. Bye!
Bad Game(s)…North Texas is the first to go out with this criteria. Not only did they lose to Louisiana Tech but they followed that up with a flat 27-24 win at UTEP, a team currently oh-for. Texas Tech will also Texas-two-step right out that door with UNT. It isn’t necessarily that the Raiders’ loss to WVU or Ole Miss was a complete disaster but it is the fact that they have two bad games AND a FCS game. That’s checking off a lot of boxes through just two criteria.
Final Nine
For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.
- Army
- BW: at Buffalo
- WW: San Jose State
- BL: at Oklahoma (by 7)
- WL: at Duke (by 20)
- Buffalo
- BW: at Temple
- WW: FCS
- BL: N/A
- WL: Army (by 29)
- Boston College
- BW: at Wake Forest
- WW: FCS
- BL: at NC State (by 5)
- WL: at Purdue (by 23)
- Cincinnati
- BW: Ohio(?) at UCLA(?)
- WW: FCS
- BL: N/A
- WL: N/A
- Michigan State
- BW: at Penn State
- WW: Central Michigan
- BL: at Arizona State (by 3)
- WL: Northwestern (by 10)
- San Diego State
- BW: at Boise State or Arizona State
- WW: FCS
- BL: at Stanford (by 21)
- WL: at Stanford (by 21)
- Is this a bad loss or not?
- South Florida
- BW: Georgia Tech
- WW: FCS
- BL: N/A
- WL: N/A
- Southern Cal
- BW: Colorado or Wazzu
- WW: UNLV
- BL: at Stanford (by 14)
- WL: at Texas (by 23)
- Utah State
- BW: BYU
- WW: FCS
- BL: at Michigan State (by 7)
- WL: N/A
The first thing that jumped out at me was just how bad Boston College’s loss at Purdue is. Losing by three touchdowns isn’t what ranked teams do, especially to a team that is just at 3-3 right now. Eagles will not be soaring this week.
The next thing that caught my eye is Buffalo’s head-to-head against Army. I’m not sure Army is going to get ranked so to lose to them in a blowout reflects poorly on my UB Bulls. They’re gone. As for that Army team, they gave OU all they could handle and destroyed UB, not to mention beating that good Hawai’i team. The problem is they also knocked off Liberty and woeful San Jose State. I’m not sure Army has done enough just yet. The thing is if they keep winning, eventually they stand a good shot to get ranked because you can’t ignore a team that runs their mark to 7-2, 8-2, 9-2, etc.
Finally there is that Utah State best win. Compared to everyone but Cincy it is clearly the worst. UC gets acknowledgement for being undefeated but the Aggies don’t get that level of respect yet. Utah State is close, maybe evenly agonizingly close, to getting into the greatest poll but it isn’t happening just quite yet.
This leaves five teams for two spots. I’m going to bring in some more data for this. I will look at two things. The first is what are their FBS opponents’ W-L overall. The other thing will be to pull out any FBS wins and look at those teams W-L. This will show how tough a team’s schedule is overall and how tough their wins have actually been.
- Cincinnati:
- Overall: 10-21 (.323)
- Wins only: 10-21 (.323)
- Michigan State
- Overall: 20-18 (.526)
- Wins only: 14-12 (.538)
- San Diego State
- Overall: 16-15 (.561)
- Wins only: 12-13 (.480)
- South Florida
- Overall: 11-21 (.344)
- Wins only: 11-21 (.344)
- Southern Cal
- Overall: 25-13 (.658)
- Wins Only: 15-10 (.600)
This data points to two clear teams, Southern Cal and Michigan State and I agree. Cincy is undefeated, which is awesome, but they haven’t played a soul. South Florida is also clean in the loss column but they are taking care of business against bad teams. If they keep winning, they’ll get in but I don’t see them as being one of the 25 best teams just quite yet.
San Diego State is also close because their strength of schedule isn’t half bad and they have some nice wins, the problem is their bad-ish game against Stanford and playing a FCS school isn’t completely erased by playing that solid schedule.
So, who gets in between MSU and USC? Well the data appears pretty clear. Despite beating both Utah State and Penn State, MSU has two pedestrian losses. The Trojans have a much tougher schedule and yet scratched out the same record as MSU at 4-2. It is close because of that win over Penn State but at the end of the day, you have to go with the Men of Troy.
Final Verdict:
25. Southern Cal
League Breakdown:
6 – SEC
5 – Big Ten, Pac 12
4 – ACC
3 – Big 12
1 – AAC, Independent
Big Ten and Counting 