2018 Week 7 Poll

A weekend filled with upsets has massive implications for both the AP poll – whoever they are and the most important poll…mine.

Real AP Poll:

1. Alabama (59)
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State (1)
4. Clemson (1)
5. Notre Dame – They have beaten Stanford, Michigan, and now Va Tech on the road.  What a first half resume, to say the least.
6. West Virginia
7. Washington – Huge opportunity next week at Oregon.
8. Penn State
9. Texas – Yikes, barely top ten.  Not looking great for the Big 12 as both UT and WVU are outside the top 5.
10. UCF
11. Oklahoma
12. Michigan
13. LSU
14. Florida – Wait, what?  Didn’t UF literally just beat LSU?
15. Wisconsin
16. Miami (FL)
17. Oregon
18. Kentucky – No shame in that loss at Kyle Field.  This is still a really scary defense and overall a solid team.
19. Colorado
20. NC State
21. Auburn – Highest ranked two loss team because of…?  Yes they beat Washington but that was in the opener.  Injuries and poor O-line play have made this team a shell of what they once were.
22. Texas A&M
23. South Florida
24. Mississippi State – Ah yes, the usual SEC carousel of beating one means you are back in the polls even though you were just manhandled by Florida and Kentucky.
25. Cincinnati

Dropped: Stanford (14), Michigan State (20), Virginia Tech (24), Oklahoma State (25)

Receiving Votes: Iowa, Stanford, Washington State, SDSU, TCU, Appalachian State, Utah State, Utah, South Carolina, Hawai’i

Josh’s Top 25:

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. UCF
5. Clemson
6. Notre Dame
7. Penn State
8. Oklahoma – I’m sorry, they are still the best team in the Big 12.  Their defense is awful but that offense is amazing.  They had an off day and still put up 45 points and rallied from 21 down.
9. West Virginia
10. LSU – Still played really well on the road.  It is just one loss, let’s see if it becomes a trend before writing off the Tigers.
11. Michigan
12. Washington
13. Wisconsin
14. Oregon
15. Miami (FL)
16. Texas – My poll is simple, I don’t do wild swings.  If UT keeps winning they will move up, just like this week when I had them go from 20th to 16th.  Oregon and Washington play each other next, that loser will drop.  Michigan and Wisconsin also play each other next.  That loser will drop.  Just hold tight Longhorn fans.
17. Kentucky
18. Florida
19. Stanford – They lost a tight game AT Notre Dame then had to play a damn good Utah defense without Bryce Love.  I dropped them seven spots.  The real AP dropped them all the way out from 14th.  Let me pose it to you this way: do you want to play Stanford?  I certainly don’t.  They are still a scary team defensively and have a ton of weapons offensively.  The big thing is to get some OL play for the love of god.
20. Duke
21. Washington State
22. -25. See Below – Final Verdict

See Below, What the Hell is That?

This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot(s) all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try to state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (bad games could be narrow wins over bad opponents, a blowout loss, or a stunning upset). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.

American Athletic Conference

Cincinnati is 6-0, SIX AND OH!…but they aren’t alone.  USF is 5-0 and Houston is a respectable 4-1.  The problem for Ed Oliver’s club is not only do the Cougars have a loss but it was a bad one.  They gave up 63 points to Texas Tech.  The undefeated duo moves on.

AAC Nominees: Cincinnati, South Florida

Atlantic Coast Conference

Duke was ranked for me a week ago, have an impressive resume, and were off.  Eat it, haters.  If they smoke Georgia Tech, Virginia, and Pitt the next three games they’ll be ranked in the “real” poll too.  I’m just skipping the unnecessary step of demoting them.  Anyway, who else should be ranked?  Va Tech was a week ago so I looked at them and NC State.  Tech has the nice win at Duke but it was Daniel Jones’ first game back from injury and their two losses are bad.  Wolfpack easily advance.

ACC Nominee: NC State

Big 12 Conference

I had the Pokes ranked a week ago but thanks to a 1-2 start in league they have just one power-five win: Kansas.  Baylor is quietly 4-2 and has swept both Kansas schools.  I don’t think it will be enough to sniff the rankings but for this week at least I’ll let the Bears see how they stack up nationally.

Big 12 Nominee: Baylor

Big Ten Conference

Well Sparty was ranked a week ago so I gave them my curtsey look but with a 3-2 mark and looking very shaky in those wins it was pretty much a guarantee they wouldn’t be ranked.  That leaves Iowa.  Hawks looked sharp in Minneapolis and have pushed their record to 4-1 with the lone loss a good one to Wisconsin.

Big 10 Nominee: Iowa

Conference USA

North Texas got back in the win column, albeit in a shaky effort to awful UTEP and the UAB Blazers knocked off Louisiana Tech to push their mark to 4-1.  UAB doesn’t have a power-five win (or even faced one) and UNT hasn’t looked like a ranked club the last two weeks.  This league sits out another week.

C-USA Nominee: No One

Mountain West Conference

Loads of teams to look at and none of them are Boise State.  Is the Smurf Turf mystique gone?  Anyway, division foe Utah State sits pretty in the Mountain Division while Hawai’i, Fresno State, and San Diego State are all battling in a loaded west.  As much as I love the Rainbow Warrior’s impressive 6-1 start, they haven’t played a power-five team and with quarterback Cole McDonald banged up, I’m hesitant to rank them.  Utah State is the only one of the remaining trio to not beat a power-five team and them taking on New Mexico State was pretty cupcake-y.  The other two resume’s are basically identical so I’m going to overrule myself and just put both through.

MTW Nominees: Fresno State, SDSU

Southeastern Conference

The trio of “we do some good things but are any of us complete teams?” was looked at as I considered Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and Auburn.  Tigers have the win over Washington and even though they are a much different team now than they were then, it is still a big trump card to hold.  MSU has the head-to-head over Auburn so that’s a great card to hold.  A&M just knocked off Kentucky but also gave Clemson fits so they are also impressive.  With each resume essentially identical, I think I need to put them up to a national test.  Just one of those weeks, folks.

SEC Nominees: Auburn, Mississippi State, Texas A&M

Elimination Time

The above TEN teams join Buffalo, Colorado, and Troy to form a massive list of 13 teams trying to get into the best poll the internet has.  The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.

FCS Much?…Every team I am looking at has played a FCS team.  All 13 of them.  Wow, nice scheduling.  Thought the “playoffs” made strength of schedule important.  Anyway, the biggest looser from this criteria is Mississippi State.  They are only 4-2 but the FCS win makes them 3-2.  One of their other wins is a struggling Ragin’ Cajun team.  Then in their four power-five games they are just 2-2 and averaging 16.75 points per game.  The Auburn win was awesome, but let’s see it become a trend as they head to LSU next.

Bad Game(s)…Two teams I really like are still atoning for some earlier sins.  Troy lost their opener by 36 at home to Boise State.  Not going to cut it.  Those lovable UB Bulls bounced back against Central Michigan but hard to overlook a 42-13 home loss to Army.  Also going out at this stage are those super quiet Baylor Bears.  Did anyone know they were 4-2?  Anyway, they had 66 points dropped on them by Oklahoma.  Needed to be more competitive in that game to sneak into my poll.

Final Nine

For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.

• Auburn
  • BW: Washington
  • WW: FCS
  • BL: LSU (by 1)
  • WL: Miss. State (by 14)
• Cincinnati
  • BW: Tulane (?)
  • WW: FCS
  • BL: N/A
  • WL: N/A
• Colorado
  • BW: Arizona State
  • WW: FCS
  • BL: N/A
  • WL: N/A
• Fresno State
  • BW: Toledo (?)
  • WW: FCS
  • BL: at Minnesota (by 7)
  • WL: N/A
• Iowa
  • BW: Iowa State or at Minnesota
  • WW: FCS
  • BL: Wisconsin (by 11)
  • WL: N/A
• NC State
  • BW: Boston College or Virginia
  • WW: FCS
  • BL: N/A
  • WL: N/A
• San Diego State
  • BW: Arizona State or at Boise State
  • WW: FCS
  • BL: at Stanford (by 21)
  • WL: at Stanford (by 21)
    • Seriously, is that a good loss or not?
• South Florida
  • BW: Georgia Tech or Illinois
  • WW: FCS
  • BL: N/A
  • WL: N/A
• Texas A&M
  • BW: Kentucky
  • WW: FCS
  • BL: Clemson (by 2)
  • WL: at Alabama (by 23)

The first thing that jumps out to me is how Fresno and Cincinnati just haven’t played anybody.  I love the Bearcats and if they keep winning they will get ranked but I just don’t see it yet.  Their power-five win is 0-5 UCLA and their other wins aren’t very good.  Not all undefeated records are created equal.

That gets us down to eight teams for four spots.  Here I see another outlier: the Auburn victory over Washington.  Several of these teams haven’t even faced a ranked opponent let alone gotten a win, but this is one stands alone as the only win over a top ten team from my remaining group.  Auburn will be ranked.

Using similar logic, A&M’s win over Kentucky is the only other win from this group over a ranked team.  With how they looked against Clemson as well as their nasty rush defense, the Aggies are a scary team.  They will also be ranked.

This leaves five teams for two spots.  I’m going to bring in some more data for this.  I will look at two things.  The first is what are their FBS opponents’ W-L overall.  The other thing will be to pull out any FBS wins and look at those teams W-L.  This will show how tough a team’s schedule is and how tough their wins have actually been.

• Colorado:
  • Overall: 5-17 (.227)
  • Wins only: 5-17 (.227)
• Iowa:
  • Overall: 12-9 (.571)
  • Wins only: 8-8 (.500)
• NC State:
  • Overall: 12-10 (.545)
  • Wins only: 12-10 (.545)
• San Diego State:
  • Overall: 12-11 (.522)
  • Wins only: 8-9 (.471)
• South Florida:
  • Overall: 10-13 (.435)
  • Wins only: 10-13 (.435)

So this is why I love data.  Colorado is undefeated but just like Cincinnati it is not an overly impressive undefeated just yet.  Winning seven, eight, nine in a row is amazing but at this point the Buffs are just taking care of business.  From this extra information, I think NC State has to be in.  Their overall opponent’s record is second only to Iowa’s but they have also gone undefeated against that schedule.

So I need one last team and I have Iowa, SDSU, and USF to pick from.  I think the Bulls have the worst resume of these three.  The numbers spell that out but factor in the eye test.  Narrow wins against ECU and Illinois don’t grab my attention.

Between Iowa and SDSU I am leaning towards Iowa.  Not only do my numbers point to them being a smidge better, but Iowa has better defensive and offensive rankings nationally.  Iowa has also faced three power-five programs and gone 2-1 while SDSU is just 1-1 in this benchmark.  It is insanely close but I think Iowa has the slightly better resume through six weeks.

Final Verdict:

22. Texas A&M
23. Auburn
24. NC State
25. Iowa

League Breakdown:

7 – SEC
5 – Big Ten
4 – ACC, Pac 12
3 – Big 12
1 – AAC, Independent