Well Buffalo lost which stung and Duke lost, which was expected but they did deserve to be ranked. For the most part though, my poll held up fairly well (i.e. not ranking Texas Tech). Anyway, damn why did my UB Bulls have to lose?!
Real AP Poll:
- Alabama (58)
- Georgia
- Ohio State (1) – Without a doubt, they have the most impressive win of the year and a solid TCU win. Herbie made a great argument Saturday night that they should be a top two team.
- Clemson (1)
- LSU
- Notre Dame
- Oklahoma
- Auburn – Um, why did their win give them a two rank boost? Is it because of what Washington did to BYU?
- West Virginia
- Washington
- Penn State
- UCF
- Kentucky
- Stanford
- Michigan
- Wisconsin
- Miami (FL) – Is their a quieter 4-1 team out there? I mean they obliterated North Carolina on Friday and went down a ranking.
- Oregon
- Texas
- Michigan State
- Colorado
- Florida
- NC State
- Virginia Tech
- Oklahoma State
Dropped: BYU (20), Duke (22), Mississippi State (23), Cal (24), Texas Tech (25)
Receiving Votes: Boise State, South Florida, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Iowa, Texas A&M, Washington State, TCU, Cal, Maryland, Missouri, Boston College, Mississippi State, BYU, Appalachian State, Arizona State, SDSU, Hawai’i, Duke
Josh’s Top 25:
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Georgia – Comes down to the fact that UGA has beaten, um, no teams currently ranked and OSU has taken down Penn State.
- Oklahoma
- UCF
- LSU
- Clemson – Tell me this team has enough offense to hang with 1-5. Tell me this team is as scary as LSU. Exactly.
- Penn State
- Notre Dame
- West Virginia – They feel like a ticking time bomb. They don’t look good enough to survive a brutal second half of the season.
- Auburn
- Stanford
- Michigan
- Washington
- Wisconsin
- Kentucky – Look, I don’t have crazy swings in my poll. Kentucky can fly up four spots in the real AP but for me, all the teams ahead of them won outside Stanford and the Cardinal have a huge win at Oregon. UK’s 5-0 start is awesome but their resume took a hit by Mississippi State falling on their face two weeks in a row.
- Oregon
- Michigan State
- Miami (FL)
- Texas
- -25. See Below – Final Verdict
See Below, What the Hell is That?
This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot(s) all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try and state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (bad games could be narrow wins over bad opponents, a blowout loss, or a stunning upset). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.
American Athletic Conference
Cincinnati continued their hot start getting to 5-0 while USF (4-0) and Houston (3-1) had bye weeks to remain where they were. It wasn’t good enough for UH last week and it won’t be this week. Cougars are out. UC is agonizingly close to getting ranked but they have faced just one power-five team compared to USF’s two. BUT in looking at my notes I remembered that USF had an eye test problem last week with some close games against weak opponents. UC is coming off a 49-7 thumping of woeful Connecticut. They also had a more lopsided victory against a FCS team than South Florida did. As a result, the 5-0 start gets the nod.
AAC Nominee: Cincinnati
Atlantic Coast Conference
Duke barely made my poll a week ago but since they did, they automatically get a look this week. They have two road power-five wins. They also beat an Army team that is on fire right now. Syracuse had a nice moral victory but still stand at just one power-five win so Duke’s resume is better than Syracuse’s. Boston College got back in the win column against Temple but again, just one power-five win so again Duke’s resume holds. Finally there is NC State. They have looked good the last two weeks but, you guessed it, just one power-five win…at home…against Virginia. That leaves Duke and the team they just lost to, Virginia Tech. Tech has matched Duke’s two power-five wins and has the head-to-head. Still, Duke’s resume is really, really good. It isn’t right to toss them out just yet because I think you’ll be surprised how those Northwestern and Baylor wins hold up nationally.
ACC Nominees: Duke, Virginia Tech
Big 12 Conference
Sorry TCU, I think Iowa State is a really dangerous team and you survived that nasty game but knocking of the Cyclones aren’t enough to overcome the sloppy losses against Ohio State and Texas. That leaves just Okie State. I know Red Raider nation will point out the head-to-head win but the Pokes have a better record, beat up on a solid Boise State team and bounced back from the loss with a nice win at Kansas.
Big 12 Nominee: Oklahoma State
Big Ten Conference
Iowa, Maryland, and Minnesota were all 3-1 a week ago and remain so thanks to a bye-heavy week in the league. Hoosiers were in action and got to 4-1 but didn’t look all that hot at Rutgers. For the second time in two weeks, no one moves on.
Big 10 Nominee: No One
Conference USA
NOOOOO, North Texas! They were my team (outside Buffalo, obviously). They are 4-1 and have a win over Arkansas but with a FCS team and Liberty, they couldn’t get into the polls so losing to Louisiana Tech knocks them even further back. 3-1 La Tech, Marshall, and UAB are now in the hot seat for getting ranked. Unfortunately UAB lost to Coastal Carolina so they’re out. Marshall and Tech each have 17 point losses to power-five teams but one was on the road against a top ten team. Bulldogs move on by the slimmest of margins
C-USA Nominee: Louisiana Tech
FBS Independents
Looked at both BYU and Army. Both are 3-2 and both have impressive losses. BYU of course has that Wisconsin win but at this point in the season you need to be REALLY impressive to get ranked with two losses and neither team had my eyes popping out of my skull.
Independent Nominee: No One
Mid-American Conference
By virtue of being ranked a week ago I did look at Buffalo. I love everything about this team and hope that they just weren’t used to playing an option team and will bounce back. I want them to win the MAC, I think that would be a great story and I love Lance Leipold as a coach. Sadly, losing 42-13 at home to Army is not something a team can be absorbed and ranked in the next poll.
MAC Nominee: No One
Mountain West Conference
Another league with a bunch of teams that are hot. Boise dominated Wyoming, Fresno was all over Toledo, and Hawai’i knocked off San Jose State in an overtime thriller. The Warriors look like a lock for a bowl with five wins already but their schedule has been too easy. SDSU couldn’t get ranked last week and then was off, they have to keep waiting. Utah State’s schedule has been a joke. That leaves the matching 3-1 Boise State and Fresno State clubs. Fresno has a power-five win, but overall the easier schedule. Broncos get a narrow advance.
MTW Nominee: Boise State
Pac 12 Conference
Wazzu bounced back from a tough loss to USC by knocking off Utah. Colorado remains clean at 4-0 and Cal was ranked a week ago and lost to a good Oregon team. Cal is in the thick of a bowl chase as that program slowly rebuilds. Getting ranked was fun but they didn’t look up to snuff against the Ducks. The Buffs are an awesome story at 4-0 but their wins have been DREADFUL. Colorado State, Nebraska, FCS New Hampshire, and UCLA. Their three FBS wins are a combined 1-12. The pirate’s team gets to keep dancing.
Pac 12 Nominee: Washington State
Southeastern Conference
Really just two teams worth taking a look (okay, fine, I did give Mississippi State a glance since they were ranked last week) and that was Florida and Missouri. Mizzou advanced last week but was off this week. That led UF to pass by MU in the record book at 4-1. Florida’s lone loss this year (Kentucky) is also looking better and better.
SEC Nominee: Florida
Sun Belt Conference
Troy, Appalachian State, and Georgia Southern are all off to hot starts in the loaded east. This pick was easy though. Not only has Troy scheduled the toughest but they are also the only one with a power-five win. By virtue of winning four in a row, those plucky Trojans will get to be stacked up against national competition.
Sun Belt Nominee: Troy
Elimination Time
The above nine teams form a master list all trying to get into the best poll the internet has. The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.
FCS Much?…All of my teams BUT Boise State has dipped into the other pool. The team this hurts the most is Louisiana Tech. Sitting at 3-1 their record really looks more like 2-1 and those wins are South Alabama and North Texas. Bon voyage, Bulldogs.
Bad Game(s)…Well Troy will probably sniff around this poll a lot but it is hard to overlook a 36 point home loss to Boise State. Try again next week, Trojans.
Final Seven
For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.
- Boise State
- BW: at Troy
- WW: Connecticut
- BL: N/A
- WL: at Oklahoma State (by 23)
- Cincinnati
- BW: Ohio(?) UCLA(?)
- WW: FCS
- BL: N/A
- WL: N/A
- Duke
- BW: At Baylor / At Northwestern
- WW: FCS
- BL: N/A
- WL: Virginia Tech (by 17)
- Florida
- BW: At Mississippi State
- WW: FCS
- BL: N/A
- WL: Kentucky (by 11)
- Oklahoma State
- BW: Boise State
- WW: FCS
- BL: N/A
- WL: Texas Tech (by 24)
- Virginia Tech
- BW: at Duke
- WW: FCS
- BL: N/A
- WL: at Old Dominion (by 14)
- Washington State
- BW: Utah
- WW: FCS
- BL: at USC (by 3)
- WL: N/A
Two things immediately jump out, the first is just how awful Cincy’s schedule has been. The good news is they will have plenty of chances at nice wins in their league so just because they’re out now, doesn’t mean they won’t get ranked at some point. The other immediate reaction is that Wazzu doesn’t have a bad loss. Everyone else has gotten beat up pretty bad in their loss, or suffered it at home. Washington State lost in the Colosseum. It was even a controversial one. No shame in that. They will be ranked…somewhere.
That leaves five teams for four spots. I think Boise has to be shown the door at this point. No power-five wins and a head-to-head loss against a team also trying to be ranked. Tough pill to swallow since we all like the Broncos but they aren’t worthy of being ranked just quite yet.
Whew, we did it! We have our five teams but which order? For this, wins versus FBS teams will be looked at by combining those opponent’s win-loss.
- Duke: 7-7 (.500)
- Florida: 6-9 (.400)
- Oklahoma State: 6-8 (.429)
- Virginia Tech: 7-3 (.700)
- Washington State: 2-9 (.222)
Well this is pretty clear data, isn’t it? Washington State may have avoided bad losses to be the first ranked but they haven’t beaten anybody! They will be 25th. Oklahoma State’s Boise win gives them a nice boost as the Bronco’s overall record helps edge out Florida. Duke and Tech are also easy to slot thanks to facing each other.
Final Verdict:
21. Virginia Tech
22. Duke – Look, they climbed a spot despite losing. It is rare but I cannot stress this fact enough: VERY few teams have two power-five road wins this season. VERY few teams have their wins against teams with a combined record of .500 or better. It is fine to dismiss Duke thanks to the eye test but Daniel Jones’ first game back from injury was going to be rusty. If the Devils humiliate Georgia Tech next week and they are right back in the AP Poll, just remember, I didn’t bother to move them.
23. Oklahoma State
24. Florida
25. Washington State
League Breakdown:
6 – SEC
5 – Big Ten
4 – ACC, Big 12, Pac 12
1 – AAC, Independent
Big Ten and Counting 