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2018 Week 5 Poll

Here it is folks, I have waited for (most) teams to play four games and I am finally ready to do some rankings!

Real AP Poll:

  1. Alabama (60)
  2. Georgia
  3. Clemson (1)
  4. Ohio State
  5. LSU
  6. Oklahoma
  7. Stanford – Uh-oh, a Cardinal team that can pass and is equipped to comeback from large deficits?  That’s scary.
  8. Notre Dame
  9. Penn State
  10. Auburn
  11. Washington
  12. West Virginia – Their game next week in Lubbock suddenly got much, much more interesting, didn’t it?
  13. UCF
  14. Michigan
  15. Wisconsin
  16. Miami (FL)
  17. Kentucky – Benny Snell might be the most fun player to watch in the SEC and that’s saying something when you look at some of the stars at Bama, LSU, Auburn, and Georgia.
  18. Texas
  19. Oregon
  20. BYU
  21. Michigan State
  22. Duke – Congrats Duke, you just got into the polls!  Now you have to take on Virginia Tech who might be just a little upset about how their game at Old Dominion went.
  23. Mississippi State
  24. California
  25. Texas Tech

Dropped: Virginia Tech (13), Oklahoma State (15), TCU (17), Texas A&M (22), Boston College (23)

Receiving Votes: Colorado, Boise State, Virginia Tech, South Florida, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Iowa, South Carolina, Florida, NC State, Syracuse, TCU, Cincinnati, North Texas, Utah, Missouri, Ole Miss, Maryland, Buffalo, San Diego State, Arizona State

Josh’s Top 25:

  1. Alabama
  2. Georgia
  3. Ohio State
  4. Oklahoma
  5. Clemson – Until that QB situation is sorted out, I’m not confident Clemson can put up the points to run with teams 1-4.
  6. Stanford
  7. UCF – My champions last year are undefeated, fyi.
  8. LSU
  9. Penn State
  10. Notre Dame
  11. West Virginia
  12. Auburn
  13. Michigan
  14. Washington
  15. Wisconsin
  16. Kentucky
  17. Oregon
  18. Michigan State
  19. Miami (FL)
  20. Mississippi State
  21. BYU
  22. Texas
  23. -25 See Below – Final Verdict

See Below, What the Hell is That?

This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot(s) all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try and state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (bad games could be narrow wins over bad opponents, a blowout loss, or a stunning upset). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.

American Athletic Conference

Obviously I have purchased a ton of stock in UCF but can anyone join them?  USF and Cincy are 4-0 while Houston and Memphis lurk at 3-1.  Memphis’ terrible schedule combined with losing to a mediocre Navy team gets them a quick boot.  Houston’s loss to Texas Tech looks much better now but their schedule is also on the easier side compared to who USF has faced.  That leaves those two eastern foes and unfortunately for those plucky Bearcats, it’s not even close.  Cincy has faced two MAC teams, a FCS team, and UCLA.  South Florida has faced a FCS team, a conference opponent, and two power-five teams.

AAC Nominee: USF

Atlantic Coast Conference

So I agree with Clemson and Miami (FL) but haven’t ranked Duke just yet.  They’re on my radar but I’m also going to look at Syracuse, NC State, Boston College, Virginia, and Virginia Tech to do my due diligence.  Boston College was the first to get the boot.  I love A.J. Dillon but two of their three wins have been UMass and FCS Holy Cross.  Winning at Wake was nice, but not worthy of ranking.  Hokies also get the hook partly because of the ODU game but also because after the Florid State game, they only played William and Mary.  NC State is a tough team to evaluate right now because that West Virginia game was canned.  James Madison and Georgia State do nothing and a road trip to Marshall is tricky, but not worthy of ranking.  UVA is also going to be hard to sell readers on because they beat a FCS team, a MAC team, and lowly Louisville.  That doesn’t offset a loss to Indiana.  That leaves the two 4-0 teams and again no contest.  Syracuse has faced a MAC team, a FCS program, dreadful Connecticut, and Florida State.  Duke has knocked off a FCS team and Army as kind of blah games but have taken down two power-five teams on the road (Northwestern and Baylor).

ACC Nominee: Duke

Big 12 Conference

Yeah, yeah, I ate some crow and ranked Texas.  Now, do I put in a fourth team?  Okie State’s blowout loss and FCS win means they won’t make it far in my selection process.  Same goes with Baylor.  That just leaves one potential club left, the Raiders!

Big 12 Nominee: Texas Tech

Big Ten Conference

Hoosiers, Hawks, and Gophers are all 3-1.  All lost last Saturday.  Minnesota was blown out by the Terps.  Hoosiers couldn’t win a home date with Michigan State and Iowa can’t field punts.  No, that doesn’t mean Maryland now will get looked at because they were demolished a week ago to Temple.

Big 10 Nominee: No One

Mountain West Conference

This conference has a log jam right now with five teams all looking the part of solid ball clubs in multiple games.  Sadly for the lovable Rainbow Warriors, they are my first MTW team to exit because they didn’t schedule a power-five program.  Next to go is surprising but it has to be Boise State.  In addition to getting demolished by Oklahoma State, their wins are currently Troy (nice-ish) and Connecticut (a glorified FCS team).  Speaking of schedule this is also where Utah State departs.  After dropping the tight one to Michigan State, the Aggies have faced New Mexico State, Tennessee Tech, and Air Force.  Not exactly a murderer’s row.  That leaves Fresno State and SDSU.  Both are 1-1 against power-five programs and both also took down a FCS team.  The difference is SDSU’s power-five teams are better AND the Aztecs also have an extra win right now with Eastern Michigan, a team that knocked off Purdue.  Slight edge to Rocky Long’s crew.

MTW Nominee: SDSU

Pac 12 Conference

I love what Cal and Colorado have done in their undefeated starts but let’s cross our I’s and dot our T’s before anointing either.  3-1 Wazzu and 2-1 Utah are out because of easy wins.  USC has too many losses and Arizona State has a moron as a coach.  That leaves the Bears and Buffs.  California is holding a huge trump card however…BYU.  That win is better than anything Colorado has done thus far.

Pac 12 Nominee: Cal

Southeastern Conference

Four teams boast hot starts with just one loss through several weeks: Florida, South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Mizzou.  Gamecocks were my first team to go because their ugly loss to Georgia cannot be offset by Coastal Carolina and Vanderbilt.  Ole Miss also missed the cut for me because of that ‘Bama game.  No shame in losing to them but to open the game 7-0 and then give up 62 straight points is not something ranked clubs do.  Their Texas Tech win made them tough to eliminate, however.  That leaves Mizzou and Florida.  Tigers won at Purdue which feels like a more impressive win than the Tennessee win for UF.  Florida lost to a good Kentucky team by 11 but Missouri lost to a better Georgia team by 14.  I don’t think any of these teams will get in but I think Missouri’s resume is the best of a weak bunch.

SEC Nominee: Missouri

Sun Belt Conference

Coastal Carolina, Arkansas State, and Troy are all 3-1 but have lopsided losses and low level wins.  Troy is theoretically the closest to being ranked with the Nebraska win but that doesn’t cut it right now.

Sun Belt Nominee: No One

Elimination Time

The above six teams join North Texas and Buffalo to form a master list of eight clubs all trying to get into the best poll the internet has.  The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.

FCS Much?…All six teams have dipped their toes into the FCS pool but North Texas went in 1.5 times.  The half dip?  Liberty.  The FBS independent team is in their first year at the higher level and was always meant to be a cupcake victory.  Love Mason Fine and the offense but the Mean Green’s 4-0 start is frankly closer to 2-0 with such soft scheduling.

Bad Game(s)…Two teams get cut here due to the old eye test.  The first is a club I really like and that is USF.  Against a bad ECU team the Bulls could only muster a 7 point win.  Against a struggling Illinois team, just a six point win.  They also needed some second half heroics against a pedestrian Georgia Tech team.  They’re close to being ranked but it isn’t happening this week.  SDSU is the other team hit hard by the eye test.  They lost by 21 to Stanford but then beat a FCS team by just 14, Arizona State by 7, and Eastern Michigan by 3.  Again, very close but no cigar just yet.

Final Five

For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.

  • Buffalo
    • BW: At Temple (or RU)
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: N/A
    • WL: N/A
  • California
    • BW: BYU
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: N/A
    • WL: N/A
  • Duke
    • BW: At Northwestern (or Baylor)
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: N/A
    • WL: N/A
  • Missouri
    • BW: at Purdue
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: Georgia (by 14)
    • WL: N/A
  • Texas Tech
    • BW: at Oklahoma State
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: N/A
    • WL: Ole Miss (by 20)

The first thing that catches my attention is just one team has two road victories at power-five clubs: Duke.  They face a really, really tall task next week but up to this point, they have played and looked like one of the best 25 teams in the nation.  Duke will be in.

That leaves two teams left to slot and three clubs to work with.  One team that is not stacking up right now is Missouri.  All the other teams best win have .500 records or better.  Purdue looked good against Boston College but knocking them off just isn’t enough yet for the Tigers.

Three teams, two slots.  What to do.  I think California is in because of winning at BYU.  The Cougars demolished Arizona and won at Wisconsin.  For Cal to knock them off in Provo is looking really good.  Texas Tech and the Bulls are hard to split though.  Tech has knocked off Houston (good win) and Oklahoma State (good win), but was also decimated in their opener.  The Bulls have knocked off Temple (not too shabby), Eastern Michigan (not too shabby), and Rutgers (hey, they’re a power-five team!).  I think what stands out to me is that Ole Miss loss.  Texas Tech was obliterated.  That Okie State win might mature nicely and Tech might drop West Virginia next week but as of now I see one team with two road victories playing really consistent and one team that totally no showed for a game.  I’d rather go with the consistent club.

Final Verdict:

23. Duke
24. California
25. Buffalo

League Breakdown:

6 – SEC
5 – Big Ten
4 – Pac 12
3 – ACC, Big 12
2 – Independent
1 – AAC, MAC

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