The 2016 champion Nittany Lions looked to defend their title and even improve as a possible “playoff” participant and looked the part at times last year. Riding a killer offense thanks to Trace McSorley’s arm and Saquon Barkley’s legs, the Lions overcame a tough trip to Iowa City to roar out to a 7-0 (4-0) start. After demolishing Michigan 42-13, PSU had to go to the Shoe. They were rolling until, well, they weren’t. Ohio State mounted a furious comeback that included a 19 point fourth quarter to stun Penn State, 39-38. The following week at Michigan State, Penn State found a way to lose 27-24. With two losses in the division and one to the rolling Bucks, Indianapolis was all but over. Still, Franklin rallied his guys to finish strong, ripping off three straight to end the regular season 10-2 and then a month later they took down a talented Washington team in the Fiesta Bowl to go an impressive 11-2.
For a team that has won 22 games the last two years, the question has now turned to, when do we break through and join that exclusive club to play in the “playoffs?” With the pieces back on offense, the Lions will have a puncher’s chance for that first “playoff” appearance to happen in 2018 but they need to figure some things out on defense because that is the side of the ball that lost the most talent.
The area of least concern for the defense is the secondary. Despite losing all four starters, there is still some nice experience. John Reid was an All-Big Ten honorable mention in 2016 and started all 14 games that year. He missed last year due to a knee injury so his return is key. The other starting corner, Amani Oruwariye, is an interesting player. He is a frequently used reserve, so frequently in fact, he earned second-team All-Big Ten last year and led the team in interceptions. Depth at CB is provided by Tariq Castro-Fields who appeared in 12 games as a true freshman last year, Zech McPhearson who saw the field 11 times in his redshirt freshman season, Donovan Johnson, and four-star incoming freshman Trent Gordon.
Safety isn’t as sure of a bet as corner with Nick Scott and Garrett Taylor slated as starters. Scott made 13 appearances last year and had one spot-start but the fifth-year senior has never had this kind of role thrust on him. Same goes for Taylor who saw the field in all 13 games last year but has never made a start. This group is rounded out by key reserves Ayron Monroe (11 appearances in 2017), Lamont Wade (All-Big Ten freshman honorable mention, appeared in 12 games last year), and redshirt freshman Jonathan Sutherland (a four-star recruit per ESPN).
The linebacking trio will have one familiar face but is calling on others to step up. The proven commodity is Koa Farmer who started all 13 games a season ago. He played pretty well considering he had just two career starts entering 2017. Joining Farmer will be Cam Brown with 24 career appearances and two starts as well as an All-Big Ten freshman team accolade in 2016. The final LB is the biggest unknown and that is Jan Johnson who has just 12 career apperances in three seasons. Does he have what it takes to be a starting MLB for a title contender? We will find out, but considering the linebacking talent that other Big Ten programs returned, Penn State can’t feel amazing about the prospects of this group.
Experienced depth is found in senior Javis Miller, senior Jake Cooper, and junior Dae’lun Darien. The exciting thing for the school that calls themselves Linebacker U are the youngins. Redshirt freshman Ellis Brooks was a four-star kid last year and placed on the ESPN top 300 at 215th. True freshman Jesse Luketa came to Happy Valley as a four-star kid sitting at 199th on the ESPN top 300. Lastly the crown jewel of the incoming class is Micah Parsons who came as a five-star prospect ranked 7th on ESPN’s top 300. These three highly touted recruits should see the field plenty, especially since Luketa and Parsons can get four games of action before the staff decides if they should be redshirted or not.
The line is also breaking in some new pieces, especially in the interior. The ends look set though with Yetur Gross-Matos coming off a true freshman season than ended with him earning All-Big Ten freshman honorable mention. While he appeared in all 13 games last year, he does not have a start yet. The other end is Shareef Miller who was a third-team All-Big Ten performer in 2017. He is up to 27 career games and 12 starts for the Nittany Lions. Depth at end is great with Shaka Toney making BTN’s All-Freshman team last year, BTN All-Freshman honorable mention Shane Simmons, and junior Daniel Joseph. A pair of four-star true freshman, Nick Tarburton and Jayson Oweh (94th on ESPN’s top 300) could also see the field.
Meanwhile at tackle Kevin Givens is the best player back with four starts in 13 appearances a season ago. Next to Givens is Robert Windsor with 27 apperances but no starts yet. There isn’t much experience behind these guys as Ellison Jordan and Antonio Shelton have just 13 combined apperances. This means a pair of two true freshman and a redshirt freshman have a great chance at seeing some action. All three are four-star recruits and P.J. Mustipher topped out at 120th on ESPN’s top 300 list. The other two prized recruits are Fred Hansard and Aeneas Hawkins.
This defense is going to take some time to jell. There are a lot of new roles for people as a ton of new starters were previously reserves. One key component, John Reid, is also coming off a lengthy injury break from the game. Based on how much Franklin has been crushing it in recruiting, I’m doubtful that talent is an issue but as the Appalachian State comeback shows, this side of the ball will be a work in progress for a bit.
What will not be a work in progress is the offense that returns a load of talent, especially right up front with the 2017 offensive line rolling right into 2018 with a ton of starters back. The line is captained by Steven Gonzalez who appeared on an All-Big Ten first-team list after starting all 13. Another key starter back is Ryan Bates who was on the All-Big Ten third team. He was banged up a bit but appeared in 10 games and had eight starts at the critical left tackle position. The big man in the middle is also returning. Connor McGovern is up to 22 career starts at center, although he is moving to guard to shore a few things up. These are the three stars of the line that pretty much have their jobs guaranteed.
While some things are getting tweaked, the line still has a ton of potential. Take Chasz Wright for instance. He appeared in 12 games last year with nine starts. The fifth year senior has a ton of experience and could see time as the starting RT or a key rotational player. No matter his role, Wright will get plenty of snaps. Another example of this depth is Will Fries who was an All-Big Ten freshman honorable mention last year with 13 appearances and nine starts. Like Wright, he will see plenty of action in what is shaping up to be a bit of a platoon system for the Penn State offensive line. A final key cog will be Michal Menet. He got into 12 games last season as a redshirt freshman but has done really well in camp at center. Menet sliding into that roll frees up McGovern to take on a more important position along the line.
If you thought I was done talking about the Nittany Lion big uglies, think again because this unit has depth on depth on depth. Zach Simpson is a guy who got into every game last year. Alex Gellerstedt got into seven games as a redshirt freshman. Then there are all the prized recruits Franklin has in the bank. Redshirt freshmen Michael Miranda and C.J. Thorpe were both four-star kids and both on ESPN’s top 300 with Thorpe landing all the way up at 76th. 2018 true freshmen Fredrick Scruggs and Rasheed Walker are also four-start kids and are also on the ESPN top 300 list with Walker ending up just a tad higher than Scruggs at 160th. This line is big, nasty, and deep. It is on the short list of OLs in the league that can even set up shop on the same block as Wisconsin’s and that is, to quote the SNL version of Nicholas Cage, “high praise.”
As for who this line will be blocking for, well it is one helluva talented backfield. The headliner is naturally quarterback Trace McSorley. McSorley is a fantastic quarterback who racked up over 3500 yards a season ago all while completing over 66% of his passes. He averaged over 8 yards an attempt and had a solid 28 TDs to just 10 INTs. He is also a true dual threat kid finishing second on the team in carries (144), yards (491), and TDs (11). Getting out of the shadow of Saquon Barkley has plenty of people seeing a possible Hesiman campaign. Personally I wish he let his game do more speaking instead of some of his on-field histrionics but his talent is undeniable.
If anything were to happen to McSorley Penn State has a couple of good options behind him. One is senior Tommy Stevens who has already seen some action as McSorley’s back-up for several years. The other is highly touted redshirt freshman Sean Clifford. Clifford was a four-star recruit and landed at 80th on ESPN’s top 300 list.
Running back has talent but thanks to Barkley’s once in a generation talent, no one really saw the field too much. Miles Sanders did finish third on the team in rushing last year but it was a small sample size with just 31 carries for 191 yards. Don’t discount Sanders as just some back-up though. He was a five or four-star recruit depending on the service you like and some even had him as the number one back in the nation when he came to Penn State…so, yeah, the ceiling is super high on this kid.
As for Sanders’s back-up, well there are some options. Mark Allen probably has the best opportunity since he is a fifth-year kid and has already had a lot of game experience as a reserve. If it isn’t Allen then young stud Ricky Slade would be the next to get a shot as he is a four-star kid who landed all the way up at 17th on ESPN’s top 300 list. Fifth-year Johnathan Thomas has been a key special teamer but could provide depth if the injury bug hits this position. Just a note if you see C.J. Holmes on a roster, the highly touted kid who got kicked off the Notre Dame team, has to sit out 2018 per NCAA transfer rules.
The other key skill position group, wider receiver, is another talented and deep group. Even with having to replace DaeSean Hamilton, Penn State will be fine. For starters second leading reciever, Juwan Johnson, is back. Johnson was an All-Big Ten honorable mention last year and is coming off a career season. The senior looks to wrap up his time in State College with a big curtain call. Another guy coming off his best season is DeAndre Thompkins. Thompkins has always been deadly in the return game but is also a very reliable option. In 2016 he had 27 catches, 440 yards, and a TD. Last year he had 28 catches, 443 yards, and 3 TDs. This kid is a burner and stretches the field plus he is a threat to house any punt that comes his way.
As for the third option after Johnson and Thompkins, coaches are really high on redshirt freshman K.J. Hamler. He came to Penn State as a four-star recruit and has already made an impact this year with a key kick return late to set up a short field against the Mountaineers as Penn State forced overtime last Saturday. Hamler isn’t the only fresh face with a ton of upside. Check out these recruits: Jahan Dotson (four-star, 139th on ESPN top 300), Daniel George (four-star, 296th), and Justin Shorter (five-star, 8th). All three have insanely high ceilings and yet they won’t necessarily even need to be called on this year as senior Brandon Polk had 13 appearances last year and simply knows the offense better. This really is one of the best receiving groups in the big ten and it all has to do with the ridiculous potential of so many top flight recruits on board.
If there is a concern for Penn State’s offense it is how to replace tight end Mike Gesicki. The Miami Dolphin ended his career with 105 catches, 1242, and 14 touchdowns over the last two seasons. He really was a fantastic tight end and now the Lions will turn to a rotation of guys to try to match Gesicki’s threat in the passing game as well as his competent blocking acumen. Jonathan Holland is one of those pieces after he found the field in 12 games last year. Danny Dalton is an upperclassmen so he knows the offense, although hasn’t seen the field yet. True freshman Patrick Freiermuth comes in with a lot of buzz as a four-star kid who cracked the ESPN top 300 (289th). This being Penn State, Freiermuth isn’t the only highly praised prospect coming in. Zack Kuntz is another four-star, top 300 player (283rd). The simple reality is replacing a guy like Gesicki is nearly impossible. He was a three down tight end who could literally do it all. For Penn State’s offense to hum, they don’t need another superstar, they just need to prevent the position from being a liability and I think there are enough options on this roster to prevent that.
2018 Schedule
Appalachian State
- Best Case – App State has a brand new QB. Welcome to the big time. 1-0
- Worst Case – Barring McSorley getting rolled up on, I don’t see how this game is close. 1-0
- Prediction – Mountaineers are well coached and could make the game interesting for a half. I see PSU pulling away and winning by about 28 when it is all said and done though. W, 45-14, 1-0
OUTCOME: Hahahaha, oops. Zac Thomas was amazing in that 28 point fourth quarter that almost cost PSU the game.
At Pittsburgh
- BC – Pitt is an okay ACC team but Penn State has their sights set a little higher. 2-0
- WC – I know Pitt pulled the upset a few years ago but it is tough to ignore the talent gap. 2-0
- P – Pitt isn’t a cakewalk but it isn’t a difficult road trip either because Pitt fans don’t show up to their own games, even this one will be about half filled. W, 31-14, 2-0
Kent State
- BC – Picked to finish last in their MAC division, ruh-row. 3-0
- WC – Injuries? 3-0
- P – Literally no hope for the Flashes in this one. W, 56-10, 3-0
At Illinois
- BC – Well this is an ideal crossover game. Should be an easy one. 4-0
- WC – PSU is better at every position group on the field. 4-0
- P – Illinois were blown out by all their ranked opponents in 2017. That trend will probably continue in 2018. W, 42-17, 4-0 (1-0)
Ohio State
- BC – Lions won it two years ago and SHOULD have won it last year before that epic comeback. 5-0
- WC – Almost all of the questions regarding Penn State are on the defensive side of the ball. OSU has zero questions about how their offense will look. 4-1
- P – And that worst case summary is the problem. Penn State has some nice pieces but I’m not sure they are a championship level defense. That doesn’t prevent you from winning a title, just look at PSU’s 2016 team, but it does make it harder. L, 42-35, 4-1 (1-1)
Michigan State
- BC – Lions find a way to not get sliced and diced by Lewerke who somehow had 400 yards a year ago in this one. 6-0
- WC – Well, Lewerke is back…ya never know. 4-2
- P – Similar clubs but PSU is a pinch more talented, a pinch more balanced on offense, and the home team. They escape. W, 27-24, 5-1 (2-1)
At Indiana
- BC – Hoosiers are replacing EIGHT starters on defense. Oh by the way, the IU D gave up 45 points in this one a year ago. 7-0
- WC – Too much offensive potential for Penn State to cost them this game. 5-2
- P – Indiana isn’t a cakewalk anymore but there is a visible talent gap. Lions scratch out a nice road win. W, 31-17, 6-1 (3-1)
Iowa
- BC – Unlike last year’s thriller, this one is over by halftime. 8-0
- WC – Unlike last year’s comeback, Penn State fall just short. 5-3
- P – Iowa is a fundamentally sound ball club and that can keep them in games and sometimes pull a stunner, but talent vs talent, Penn State is clearly better. W, 28-10, 7-1 (4-1)
At Michigan
- BC – Michigan continues to have offensive issues. Penn State is smelling the “playoffs.” 9-0
- WC – UM’s biggest weakness is the OL. PSU’s biggest weakness is the DL. You do the math…maybe UM scores some points. 5-4
- P – Total coin flip. These teams are basically mirror images as PSU’s offense is way, way better than Michigan’s. Of course UM’s defense is way, way better than PSU’s. I’ll take the better defensive club and the home team in an instant classic. L, 35-33 (triple OT), 7-2 (4-2)
Wisconsin
- BC – That’s it. All the tough games are over. Penn State will be going 12-0. 10-0
- WC – Black Monday is not going to be kind to the defensive staff as Franklin identifies the issues with this team and make a bunch of changes. 5-5
- P – I like what I said in the UW preview so I’ll just copy and paste it here: if there is one thing that separates these two programs right now it is constancy. With Wisconsin you can trust that they will be prepared and play a full 60 minutes. Penn State has swings in destroying Michigan one week to losing to MSU soon after. Even within games PSU will start slow then turn it on (i.e. Iowa) but has also been known to start fast then go to sleep, like they did in allowing Ohio State’s comeback last year. For that reason, I simply trust the Badgers more, even if Penn State is as talented, if not more so, and the home team. L, 28-24, 7-3 (4-3)
At Rutgers
- BC – PSU is up to number one in the polls! 11-0
- WC – Things didn’t go as planned but the Lions at least make a bowl. 6-5
- P – The RU offense will probably finish dead last in the Big Ten. Penn State fans like the sound of that. W, 38-7, 8-3 (5-3)
Maryland
- BC – I MADE MARYLAND’S PICKS BEFORE THE DURKIN SCANDAL! 12-0
- WC – I MADE MARYLAND’S PICKS BEFORE THE DURKIN SCANDAL! 6-6
- P – I MADE MARYLAND’S PICKS BEFORE THE DURKIN SCANDAL! W, 31-21, 9-3 (6-3)
Final Notes
Penn State’s recruiting has been phenomenal so all the new faces could pan out and get this defense righted but coming out of camp and into the season, the Lions just don’t feel like they have an elite defense. Because of that, it does not appear like PSU can win a league championship. It doesn’t mean they don’t have the potential, because they do, that offense will be amazing but it does mean that when you are predicting the outcome of the season, you will loo to take the safer pick. In three games the safer pick isn’t Penn State. So yeah, solid club with a very high ceiling but until I get a decent sample size for that D…I don’t see them winning the east.
Big Ten and Counting 