2017 was a dream season in Madison, Wisconsin. Riding an elite defense that ranked among the best nationally in all categories, the Badgers went a flawless 12-0 (9-0). They had Ohio State on the ropes for a trip to their first College Football “Playoffs” but came up just short in a 27-21 thriller. They rebounded a month later to take down Miami (FL) in the Orange Bowl by 10 to cement a 13-1 killer of a season.
While the 2018 Badgers have to rebuild most of the defense, title hopes are still extremely high thanks to an offense that returns practically everyone, including a legit Heisman candidate in Jonathan Taylor. As a freshman Taylor put up 1977 yards on 299 carries – an amazing 6.6 yard average – and found the end zone 13 times. It was a smashing success of a debut and with the offensive line stocked with returning stars, 2000+ yards does not feel like stretch.
Amazingly, even if Taylor gets nicked up or suffers a sophomore slump, the stable of backs behind him is deep. Seconding leading rusher, Bradrick Shaw has been a reliable change of pace back with a more bruising style. He is closing in on 1000 career yards but is still recovering from a knee injury last year. Pitt transfer Chris James is also a reliable option, racking up over 230 yards as a reserve last season. Senior Taiwan Deal also looks to return to form after not playing a down in 2017 due to injury and missing most of 2016 to health, too. Back in 2015 Deal made two spot starts as the running back group was banged up and saw action in eight other games. He racked up over 500 yards in those 10 games of action so a healthy Deal provides another powerful option for this unit. Lastly former walk-on Garrett Groshek looks to build on a fun freshman year when he ran for 297 yards and two scores to earn a scholarship this offseason.
Often employing a two-back backfield, we have to look at the big hosses at fullback when previewing the Badgers. Unsurprisingly, Bucky has a good one in Alec Ingold. A powerful lead blocker, Ingold is competent with the ball, too. He has made 9 receptions for just 92 yards in his career, yet has three touchdowns. He has just 77 carries in his career for 200 yards, yet has 11 touchdowns. He provides a nice match-up nightmare in the redzone as he is too big for a corner but do teams really want to sacrifice a linebacker to cover a fullback?
As for the gents paving the way up front, get ready to hear a lot of names you heard during Badger games last year as the line returns all five starters. Anchoring the line is senior Michael Deiter who was a second-team All-American last year as well as All-Big Ten first team. He has started 41 straight games with starts at center, left tackle, and left guard. Dude is a beast and insanely versatile. Although he was a tackle out of necessity last season, he is much more likely to play guard in the NFL and it appears he will be heading back to his natural position in 2018.
Deiter wasn’t the only big ugly to return for his senior year. Teammates Beau Benzschawel and David Edwards are also coming back. This is very bad news for the rest of the league. Benzschawel was on Sports Illustrated’s first-team All-American list and was a consensus first-team All-Big Ten member. He has 36 consecutive starts with all but six coming at right guard. As for Edwards he also appeared on a first-team All-American list and was All-Big Ten second team a season ago. He started all 14 games in 2018 with every start protecting Hornibrook’s blind side at right tackle. No, I’m not losing my touch, Hornibrook is a lefty!
This trio of senior stars already would make Wisconsin’s offensive line one of the best in the league but the unit enjoys the other two starters, Tyler Biadasz and Jon Dietzen, as well as a ton of depth. Biadasz was a freshman All-American and a third-team All-Big Ten player last year as he started all 14 games of his redshirt freshman season at center. Dietzen might be the least hyped of the Badger line but the dude has started 20 of his 23 career games at left guard. With Deiter going back to guard, there might be a little reshuffling but I would be surprised to see Dietzen lose a starting job.
Pushing for more playing time or even starting positions are members of the deep OL rotation, Micah Kapoi and Cole Van Lanen. Kapoi is a senior with 34 appearances and 14 career starts, including four last year. He has been getting a lot of reps at center, pushing the younger Biadasz. Van Lanen is pushing Dietzen for that left tackle spot and appeared in all 14 games of his redshirt freshman year in 2018. Additional depth comes from Jason Erdmann and David Moorman. Both are juniors with appearances in all 28 games of their careers so far. Don’t expect to see him with so much proven talent ahead of him but four-star recruit Tyler Beach comes as the most heralded recruit for the position and was recognized as the 174th best player on ESPN’s top 300.
So all this talent and we haven’t even gotten to the quarterback, yet. Time for that to change. Junior Alex Hornibrook may not have won any beauty contests last year with his left-handed delivery and 15 interceptions but all he does is win. In his first full season as a starter his completion percentage, yards per attempt, and TD to INT ratio all vastly improved from his nine starts in 2017. He capped last year with an Orange Bowl MVP, picking apart the turnover chain carrying Miami Hurricanes with this stat line: 23/34, 258 yards, 67.6%, 4 TD, 0 INTs. If Hornibrook continues to grow his game, trim the picks a little, and have more days like the Orange Bowl, he will be able to lead the most lethal offense at Wisconsin since Russell Wilson’s lone year.
Badgers do need Hornibrook to stay healthy though. While Jack Coan is a capable back-up and got some action as a true freshman last year, the folks behind Coan are very green. Two are true freshman and one is a redshirt kid so behind the starter are five attempted passes by Coan and nothing else.
While quarterback depth isn’t ideal, the primary concern for Sconnie nation is the group expected to catch passes from Hornibrook. The team’s leading receiver, Troy Fumagalli, graduated after a brilliant four seasons in a Badger uniform. The team will also be without second leading reciever Quintez Cephus who left the team to focus on a legal battle. His sexual assault case has already spilled to a teammate. 2018’s fourth leading reciever, Danny Davis III, has been suspended two games for his connection in Cephus’ alleged crime. It should be stressed that Davis III is not under any threat of legal action right now but Chryst also left himself room to suspend Davis III as the criminal trial develops. The allegations against Cephus are disgusting so hopefully correct justice is served for all parties.
The departure of Fumagalli and Cephus as well as Davis III’s suspension puts a lot of pressure on A.J. Taylor and Kendric Pryor. Taylor was the third leading receiver a year ago and Pryor had decent true freshman season with 179 yards and a score. Behind Taylor and Pryor there are a lot of young pups, a few seeing the field in limited roles or special teams last year but three incoming freshman could also be difference makers. The trio of A.J. Abbott II, Aron Cruickshank, and Taj Mustapha racked up several Big Ten offers, especially Cruickshank who was a four-star recruit.
As for the important tight end position, there is no super star like Fumagalli but there are some nice options. Kyle Penniston was a mainstay last year with appearances in every game and eight starts. He isn’t exactly a blocker yet so there will be a rotation. Zander Neuville won the job in camp but has been hampered by injury dating back to an ACL last year. Highly touted four-star (by some services) freshman Jake Ferguson should also see the field after a good camp. Like Penniston, he is more of a passing target than a blocker right now. Additional depth comes from Luke Benzschawel, Gabe Lloyd, and incoming freshman Cormac Sampson.
While the WR and TE groups skew younger than Badger fans are accustomed too, especially WR, I still like the group. A.J. Taylor is poised for an explosion this year and with opponents focusing on slowing the running game, the Badgers wide outs should enjoy single coverage. As for the tight ends, Fumagalli was a three down player and that’s rare to find but Wisconsin has enough talent on the roster to have a more traditional TE rotation with a couple of pass weapons and a couple of blockers to mix and match.
On the other side of the ball, there are a couple of stars but a lot of new faces. The nice thing for UW is they have such good player development that a lot of these new faces have been in several camps and have seen the field as reserves. This is how college football programs pretty much ran until the era of recruiting rankings, leaving early for the NFL, and transfers. Long story short, just because it has some new components, don’t expect Jim Leonhard’s unit to magically forget how to tackle.
So I mentioned there were some stars back, they mostly reside in the linebacking group. Since the Badgers run the 3-4 the thinking is with so much back at LB, this bodes well for the defense remaining elite, or close to it. At inside linebacker, Wisconsin got a pleasant surprise with T.J. Edwards returning for his senior year. He was a Butkus finalist last year, a first-team All-American, and a first-team All-Big Ten player. He was all over the field with 75 tackles, 53 solo, 11.0 TFLs, 2.0 sacks, 4 INTs, and 11 pass breakups all while starting every game. Joining Edwards at ILB is All-Big Ten honorable mention Ryan Connelly. He played all 14 and had six starts last season. His breakthrough season yielded a team high 88 tackles and 11.0 TFLs.
ILB also has a great reserve in Chris Orr. He has been banged up the last two years but still managed eight starts last season. With the growth of Connelly in 2017, it seems like Orr probably won’t be a starter in his junior year but when healthy, he is just as talented as the other two. Mike Maskalunas will also provide depth as he got into 13 games last season.
On the outside Wisconsin will look to Andrew Van Ginkel to continue is maturation in his senior year. Van Ginkel played in all 14 games last season but got better as the year went on and was absolutely brilliant in the Big Ten title game with a pick six to go along with a forced and recovered fumble. While Van Ginkel has one of the starting jobs set, the second starter has a little bit of intrigue. Zack Baun has a great shot at winning the job full-time. He appeared in 12 games in 2016 but had a foot injury in camp last year and missed the whole season. If for some reason Baun doesn’t pan out or injuries crop up for the position group, there are some other options. One is Tyler Johnson who had 14 appearances last year. Another is former four-star prospect and Alabama transfer Christian Bell. Bell got into eight games a year ago. Arrignton Farrar is also a very experienced senior with 39 appearances in his career. Lastly redshirt sophomore Noah Burks got into eight games in 2017.
The other position group with a returning star is the secondary. This group welcomes back safety D’Cota Dixon after an All-Big Ten first team (coaches) season. He is up to 42 career games with 23 starts at safety. Last year he had 55 tackles and 3.5 TFLs. Joining Dixon will be redshirt freshman Scott Nelson who beat out Patrick Johnson, Seth Currens, Evan Bondoc, and Eric Burrell for the gig. Nelson’s playmaking ability and football IQ were way above expectations this year and the staff is really excited about him.
Over at corner, UW has to replace two outstanding kids from last year’s defense. Much like Nelson, the staff is excited about the development of redshirt sophomore Caesar Williams. There had been some belief that Dontye Carriere-Williams would win a starting job but after Ceasar Williams secured one and Faion Hicks emerged in camp, Carriere-Williams transferred. His departure not only secures Hicks’ gig but also opens the door for larger roles for Madison Cone and a slew of true freshman and redshirt freshman kids, including four-star Donte Burton.
The back eight of this defense should be fine and if the proven stars play like it, the defense could even be elite again. The biggest questions are along the three-man front of UW’s 3-4. The big man in the middle, Olive Sagapolu, has 19 starts in 36 career games. He started 10 a year ago and played in all 14. With 17 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, and 3.0 sacks he is much more than just a lane clogger. Unfortunately the men around him will be a little different as Isaiahh Loudermilk comes back from a knee injury and Garrett Rand is out for the year with an Achilles injury. Depth at nose tackle is also limited with none of the other NTs on the roster have played a down in college.
On the outside of the three-man front, UW will get a big piece back in Loudermilk as the season goes on. There is a chance he even sees the field by week two. In the absence of Loudermilk and Rand there has been a lot of adjustments in the offseason. One is walk-on Matt Henningsen emerging in camp and getting first team reps. Another is NT Kayden Lyles shifting to end and also earning first team reps. The other options along the DL are all quite young and/or inexperienced but David Pfaff did play in five games a year ago and as a junior, does have plenty of camp experience.
If that DL scares you as a Badger fan, I have some good news. I’m ending UW’s preview with a high note: special teams. Punter Anthony Lotti and kicker Rafael Gaglianone are both experienced, talented, and start the year on the watch-list for their respective position awards. Gaglianone has had a bit of a back issue in camp but his health seems to be improving and is expected to play against Western Kentucky.
2018 Schedule
Western Kentucky
- Best Case – WKU’s quarterback is a fifth year senior making his first career start. Yikes. 1-0
- Worst Case – The Hilltopper D makes it interesting for a quarter or so but then UW turns it on in the second half. 1-0
- Prediction – Even with several new faces as starters, the WKU offense wasn’t very good last year and is struggling to find an identity on that side of the ball. W, 49-10, 1-0
OUTCOME: Well, Wisconsin’s offense wasn’t as explosive as I thought with some rust to knock off, but a win is a win.
New Mexico
- BC – The Lobos limped through a long season last year and now their coach is changing from a triple option to a spread option. 2-0
- WC – Did I mention that coach also served a suspension earlier this year? 2-0
- P – Yeah, Bob Davie is probably going to get fired soon. W, 49-6, 2-0
Brigham Young
- BC – Cougars were 4-8 last year and the Badgers blew them out in Provo. 3-0
- WC – Full disclosure, I am proof reading this after the season debuted and BYU just knocked off Arizona. Maybe I should be worried. 2-1
- P – BYU is one of those group of five / independent type programs that often over achieves, especially if they have the right coach and personnel. Based on last year’s 4-8 debacle, I’m not sure what the issue(s) is/are right now for the Cougs, but I don’t think they have it all sorted out. W, 31-14, 3-0
At Iowa
- BC – The reloaded defense shuts Iowa down for the second straight year. 4-0
- WC – Instead of reloading, it becomes clear that UW is rebuilding the defense and they just don’t have the same magic as last year. 2-2
- P – This is a tough road test. Iowa City will be rocking and the new pieces on defense haven’t had a roadie yet. UW’s superior offense saves the day though with a late score. W, 24-21, 4-0 (1-0)
Nebraska
- BC – Wisconsin is more talented at every position group on the field. 5-0
- WC – After back-to-back losses, Badgers enjoy hosting a rebuilding Nebraska program. 3-2
- P – Jonathan Taylor feasted last year with 249 rushing yards as the team combined for 353 on the ground alone. W, 42-10, 5-0 (2-0)
At Michigan
- BC – Michigan’s savior at quarterback turns out to, well, not be a savior. 6-0
- WC – My worries about the line protected Patterson were spot on in that loss to the Irish but give them a few weeks, maybe they become competent. 3-3
- P – In a repeat of the Iowa trip, Wisconsin’s superior offense is the difference as these teams rack up more points than expected. W, 28-24, 6-0 (3-0)
Illinois
- BC – A nice breather game before yet another difficult road trip. 7-0
- WC – Even in a down year, Wisconsin should still be able to make a bowl thanks to games like this one. 4-3
- P – Illinois appears to have major issues with their offense stacking up against good Big Ten defenses. Wisconsin enjoys some home cooking. W, 24-0, 7-0 (4-0)
At Northwestern
- BC – Northwestern has a solid team, but Wisconsin has the better foundation and a deeper roster. That matters in a match-up this late in the season. 8-0
- WC – NU has the makings of a dark horse for a reason. Stout D and a stud at quarterback. 4-4
- P – Strength versus strength as the Wildcat rush D clashes with the Badger rush O. I just think Wisconsin has a bit more of a complete roster. W, 24-17, 8-0 (5-0)
Rutgers
- BC – Hey look, another cupcake before heading to a tough road trip. UW has a difficult schedule, but no brutal back-to-backs. 9-0
- WC – Even in a down year, just way too much talent dressed in plain red instead of scarlet. 5-4
- P – Expect a monster day for the running game. W, 42-3, 9-0 (6-0)
At Penn State
- BC – This is by far Wisconsin’s toughest game of the season in my opinion. Yes trips to Iowa City and Ann Arbor are tough but both are breaking in new pieces and those games are early in the season. PSU will have it all figured out by this game. Wisconsin still finds a way to win in dream season 2.0. 10-0
- WC – Trace McSorley has himself a gem. 5-5
- P – If there is one thing that separates these two programs right now it is constancy. With Wisconsin you can trust that they will be prepared and play a full 60 minutes. Penn State has swings in destroying Michigan one week to losing to MSU soon after. Even within games PSU will start slow then turn it on (i.e. Iowa) but has also been known to start fast then go to sleep, like they did in allowing Ohio State’s comeback last year. For that reason, I simply trust the Badgers more, even if Penn State is as talented, if not more so, and the home team. W, 28-24, 10-0 (7-0)
At Purdue
- BC – This was a weirdly close game last year as Wisconsin dominated everything but the final score. If UW turns some of those empty drives into points, they would blow this team out. 11-0
- WC – Despite failing to live up to expectations, the Badgers do lock down a bowl berth. 6-5
- P – Wisconsin was the better team last year and returns more pieces. Not saying a league road trip is easy, but based on the road schedule the Badgers have this year, this is at least a more manageable date than some of the previous stops. W, 35-7, 11-0 (8-0)
Minnesota
- BC – The Big Ten east produces a surprising champion, allowing the number one ranked Badgers to have a bit of an easier date in Indianapolis than they would with the Buckeyes. 12-0
- WC – Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Wisconsin still wins this rivalry. 7-5
- P – I’m not sure Minnesota has the talent on defense to slow down Jonathan Taylor yet. Plus the UM offense had just a few issues this offseason. W, 31-7, 12-0 (9-0)
Final Notes
Does this team have what it takes to win a Big Ten title? Of course. Offensively they have the best line in the league, one of the best running backs in the nation, and a very experienced quarterback. Here is the bigger question: does this team have what it takes to make the playoffs and compete for a national title? Well…maybe. They need the new faces on defense to pan out, they need the newly constructed WR and TE groups to complete the offense, and they need to survive a very tough league schedule that features road trips to five bowl teams from 2017. If the Badgers do win their first national title in football, which isn’t a stretch I might add, they will have certainly earned it the hard way.
Big Ten and Counting 